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Yesterday I did offense, today it is defense on 3rd downs, running and passing. I did throw out one situation: the kneeldown by Mike Vick at the end of the game last week occurred on 3rd down, but it really wasn't a defensive stop.
Here is the breakdown:
Opponents have run on 3rd down 16 times, converting 9 (56%).
Here is the defensive breakdown running on 3rd down:
Notes:
- In 3rd or 3 or less teams have converted 3-of-4 chances. More than anything I think that shows Buffalo has done a good job playing defense on early downs, since they only faced 4 of those situations while the other 12 3rd downs were all 4 yards or longer. All 3 conversions which opponents coverted in 3rd-or-3 or less situations were by RB Cadillac Williams.
- It is alarming how many long-distance situations the defense allowed to be converted via the run. Opponents converted 3-of-4 (75%) 3rd-and-10 or more situations and 5-of-10 (50%) 3rd and 6 or longer situations via the run.
- The biggest problem seems to be running QBs. 4 of the 5 successful conversions running on 3rd-and-6 or more were by QBs (1 by Carr, 3 by Vick, the other was Warrick Dunn). That is undoubtedly due in large part to facing a guy who is probably the best running QB in NFL history, but perhaps the Bills should be working on their scramble drill more. Bottom line is that is too many times for a guy to run for a first down after being flushed from the pocket, especially after working so hard to force a favorable down-and-distance situation.
Opponents have passed on 3rd down 19 times, converting 8 (42%).
Here is the defensive breakdown passing on 3rd down:
Notes:
- The Bills were only passed on twice in 3rd-or-3 and less, with opponents going 1-for-2 (50%).
- The Bills did a much better job defending long-distance situations when it resulted in a pass, as opponents are only 1-of-6 (16.7%) converting 3rd-and-10 or more and 4-of-12 (33%) converting 3rd-and-6 or more.
- The Bills were very disruptive rushing the QB on 3rd down against the Texans with 2 sacks and an interception on 3rd down, but they have only had 1 sack in those situations since.
Conclusions:
- Overall, the Bills have been getting worse each game on 3rd downs. They only allowed 30% conversions to the Texans (3-of-10), but didn't successfully defend 50% (7-of-14) of 3rd downs against the Bucs. Vick then ate their lunch on 3rd downs, as Atlanta converted 7-of-11 (64%) on 3rd down.
- The Bills aren't facing a lot of short-yardage situations on 3rd downs, which indicates they aren't doing a bad job on 1st and 2nd down. However, they are allowing way too many conversions on 3rd-and-long, especially when the QB scrambles. The good news is that is skewed by having faced Michael Vick, but it is still a trend worth monitoring.
Here is the breakdown:
Opponents have run on 3rd down 16 times, converting 9 (56%).
Here is the defensive breakdown running on 3rd down:
| Game | Dist | Gained | Success | Player |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 16 | Y | Carr |
| 1 | 7 | 6 | N | Carr |
| 1 | 2 | 1 | N | Carr |
| 1 | 6 | 3 | N | Carr |
| 1 | 7 | 10 | Y | Carr |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | Y | Williams |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | Y | Williams |
| 2 | 18 | 1 | N | Pittman |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | Y | Williams |
| 2 | 9 | 1 | N | Williams |
| 2 | 5 | 0 | N | Alstott |
| 3 | 10 | 14 | Y | Vick |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | Y | Dunn |
| 3 | 10 | 10 | Y | Vick |
| 3 | 10 | 27 | Y | Vick |
| 3 | 8 | 0 | N | Duckett |
Notes:
- In 3rd or 3 or less teams have converted 3-of-4 chances. More than anything I think that shows Buffalo has done a good job playing defense on early downs, since they only faced 4 of those situations while the other 12 3rd downs were all 4 yards or longer. All 3 conversions which opponents coverted in 3rd-or-3 or less situations were by RB Cadillac Williams.
- It is alarming how many long-distance situations the defense allowed to be converted via the run. Opponents converted 3-of-4 (75%) 3rd-and-10 or more situations and 5-of-10 (50%) 3rd and 6 or longer situations via the run.
- The biggest problem seems to be running QBs. 4 of the 5 successful conversions running on 3rd-and-6 or more were by QBs (1 by Carr, 3 by Vick, the other was Warrick Dunn). That is undoubtedly due in large part to facing a guy who is probably the best running QB in NFL history, but perhaps the Bills should be working on their scramble drill more. Bottom line is that is too many times for a guy to run for a first down after being flushed from the pocket, especially after working so hard to force a favorable down-and-distance situation.
Opponents have passed on 3rd down 19 times, converting 8 (42%).
Here is the defensive breakdown passing on 3rd down:
| Game | Dist | Gained | Success | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | -8 | N | Sack |
| 1 | 10 | 0 | N | Int |
| 1 | 17 | 0 | N | |
| 1 | 17 | -10 | N | Sack |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | Y | |
| 2 | 9 | 8 | N | |
| 2 | 6 | 10 | Y | |
| 2 | 10 | -9 | N | Sack |
| 2 | 8 | 4 | N | |
| 2 | 10 | 5 | N | |
| 2 | 5 | 5 | Y | |
| 2 | 3 | 15 | Y | |
| 2 | 5 | 34 | Y | |
| 3 | 9 | 0 | N | |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | Y | |
| 3 | 6 | 17 | Y | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | N | |
| 3 | 11 | 17 | Y | |
| 3 | 7 | 0 | N |
Notes:
- The Bills were only passed on twice in 3rd-or-3 and less, with opponents going 1-for-2 (50%).
- The Bills did a much better job defending long-distance situations when it resulted in a pass, as opponents are only 1-of-6 (16.7%) converting 3rd-and-10 or more and 4-of-12 (33%) converting 3rd-and-6 or more.
- The Bills were very disruptive rushing the QB on 3rd down against the Texans with 2 sacks and an interception on 3rd down, but they have only had 1 sack in those situations since.
Conclusions:
- Overall, the Bills have been getting worse each game on 3rd downs. They only allowed 30% conversions to the Texans (3-of-10), but didn't successfully defend 50% (7-of-14) of 3rd downs against the Bucs. Vick then ate their lunch on 3rd downs, as Atlanta converted 7-of-11 (64%) on 3rd down.
- The Bills aren't facing a lot of short-yardage situations on 3rd downs, which indicates they aren't doing a bad job on 1st and 2nd down. However, they are allowing way too many conversions on 3rd-and-long, especially when the QB scrambles. The good news is that is skewed by having faced Michael Vick, but it is still a trend worth monitoring.
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