X-Era
10-16-2005, 08:54 AM
So, as everyone knows at this point I have been staying away from here for the most part mostly because the Bills were headed in the wrong direction in my opinion. Rather than simply go on and on endlessly about how I felt we are wrong, I guess I realized that my rantings wont make any difference so why pester all of you with it.
Now, this morning I had a bit of a revelation, at least to me. A very smart person told me once, big decisions are never right or wrong, its what you make of them that counts. I think thats an important perspective to keep right now.
Using this mantra, Holcomb starting isnt wrong, as long as it proves to have benefited our fortunes somehow. No one here can deny that Holcomb in the first half of the fins game moved the ball and looked pretty solid. Losman in the Houston game did the same. The decision was made to go to Holcomb. How long will Holcomb starting continue to be a benefit to the team. I think that is the number 1 question. I am a bit worried that Holcombs leash gets a bit longer with each successfull win. After his decent showing vs. the Fins, I feel he earned at least 2 more starts. Today is start 1. I think that if he faulters today and looks horrible, they may insert Losman to get a spark late but would still start Holcomb next week and chalk a bad performance up to "one bad game". If he looks good today, I think he buys himself another 2 games. So, if he looks good, he is the starter coming out of the Bye week. Using the above mantra, I cant fault starting a guy who wins.
The bigger question comes in if you consider the opposite. What if Holocmb looks horrible? At what point do we pull him and go back to Losman? Thats a tough one. I could hear a arguement that we would need to start Holcomb to have a chance at the playoffs. Using that equation, it follows that we would not switch back to Losman regardless of Holcombs play until the playoffs are dead to us. It is very possible that we wontbe out of the playoffs until much much later in the year if at all. The AFC East is in complete disarray and if we keep winning our divison games which is VERY possible, we will be in the race until late or for good. But, it isnt a sure thing that beating our division wins us the AFC East. Its overall standings first then division record.
Mark my words, it is very possible this year to win all or all but one of our division games and NOT win the AFC East and maybe not go the playoffs at all!!!!! Im not sure if this has ever happened before. But I can see a version where it could. 5 or 6 division wins puts us at best at 6 or 7 wins at this point. That doesnt get us the AFC East division outright, we MUST beat some of the other teams too, and its a tough road.
Anyways, it is looking more and more possible that Holcomb starts the rest of the year. And, I have accepted this as almost inevitable and will still root for the Bills. The flip side of my above comment on that with the AFC East being in disarray the way it is, average play makes the division up for grabs assuming we can win a few other games. If you buy into niether of our QB's being great but being average, it then follows that we can go to the playoffs with Holcomb. The equation for Losman also applies to Holcomb. Holcomb + Elite RB + Great D + great ST = playoffs. I think it still stands.
So, if you are a fan for the Bills, you use the above equation, you should be rooting for Holcomb and us to goto and win playoff games.
In the end, am I a Holcomb fan? NO and YES. I am a fan of any average QB as our starter for THIS year and THIS year only because I feel we have a real shot at the playoffs using the above equation. So yes, in this case I am a fan of Holcomb.
BUT, If the equation fails, like the first 4 games, we are in real jeopardy for anything more than 8 wins if that. However, the same thought still applies, if we arent going to the playoffs, it makes no differencfe who starts at QB.
UNLESS, you consider NEXT year. That changes the whole landscape. It is my belief that Holcomb has a finite, known, value at this point. It is limited from the standpoint that he really can only get marginally better but only if his supporting cast steps up. Losman, is an unknown quantity. He has additional value because we simply dont know where his abilities will end. It will all depend on how far he grows and what type of player he becomes as a starting QB. We wont know until he plays, LOTS. What we have seen so far is nothing more than road testing for a new car model. There may be lots of things that have to be fixed still. But he may have some core components that show us that he has lots of possibilities to offer. No matter how bad you feel he looked in his 1st 4 games, you cant argue with the following as looking great, the guy has wheels and can get us yards by running, the guy has a rocket for an arm which will make picks harder and means he has the power to get the ball to anywhere on the field. Right now, today, that by no means assures wins. He hasnt shown accuracy, and poise. Its got to be the whole package to be a winner.
Really, it all comes down to this. Holcomb is our present and is a better fit for now. But if the playoffs are out of reach, Losman may exceed Holcombs play with time, but it is NOT a known fact. If the plyoffs are out of reach, switch to Losman and find out what he is.
Now, this morning I had a bit of a revelation, at least to me. A very smart person told me once, big decisions are never right or wrong, its what you make of them that counts. I think thats an important perspective to keep right now.
Using this mantra, Holcomb starting isnt wrong, as long as it proves to have benefited our fortunes somehow. No one here can deny that Holcomb in the first half of the fins game moved the ball and looked pretty solid. Losman in the Houston game did the same. The decision was made to go to Holcomb. How long will Holcomb starting continue to be a benefit to the team. I think that is the number 1 question. I am a bit worried that Holcombs leash gets a bit longer with each successfull win. After his decent showing vs. the Fins, I feel he earned at least 2 more starts. Today is start 1. I think that if he faulters today and looks horrible, they may insert Losman to get a spark late but would still start Holcomb next week and chalk a bad performance up to "one bad game". If he looks good today, I think he buys himself another 2 games. So, if he looks good, he is the starter coming out of the Bye week. Using the above mantra, I cant fault starting a guy who wins.
The bigger question comes in if you consider the opposite. What if Holocmb looks horrible? At what point do we pull him and go back to Losman? Thats a tough one. I could hear a arguement that we would need to start Holcomb to have a chance at the playoffs. Using that equation, it follows that we would not switch back to Losman regardless of Holcombs play until the playoffs are dead to us. It is very possible that we wontbe out of the playoffs until much much later in the year if at all. The AFC East is in complete disarray and if we keep winning our divison games which is VERY possible, we will be in the race until late or for good. But, it isnt a sure thing that beating our division wins us the AFC East. Its overall standings first then division record.
Mark my words, it is very possible this year to win all or all but one of our division games and NOT win the AFC East and maybe not go the playoffs at all!!!!! Im not sure if this has ever happened before. But I can see a version where it could. 5 or 6 division wins puts us at best at 6 or 7 wins at this point. That doesnt get us the AFC East division outright, we MUST beat some of the other teams too, and its a tough road.
Anyways, it is looking more and more possible that Holcomb starts the rest of the year. And, I have accepted this as almost inevitable and will still root for the Bills. The flip side of my above comment on that with the AFC East being in disarray the way it is, average play makes the division up for grabs assuming we can win a few other games. If you buy into niether of our QB's being great but being average, it then follows that we can go to the playoffs with Holcomb. The equation for Losman also applies to Holcomb. Holcomb + Elite RB + Great D + great ST = playoffs. I think it still stands.
So, if you are a fan for the Bills, you use the above equation, you should be rooting for Holcomb and us to goto and win playoff games.
In the end, am I a Holcomb fan? NO and YES. I am a fan of any average QB as our starter for THIS year and THIS year only because I feel we have a real shot at the playoffs using the above equation. So yes, in this case I am a fan of Holcomb.
BUT, If the equation fails, like the first 4 games, we are in real jeopardy for anything more than 8 wins if that. However, the same thought still applies, if we arent going to the playoffs, it makes no differencfe who starts at QB.
UNLESS, you consider NEXT year. That changes the whole landscape. It is my belief that Holcomb has a finite, known, value at this point. It is limited from the standpoint that he really can only get marginally better but only if his supporting cast steps up. Losman, is an unknown quantity. He has additional value because we simply dont know where his abilities will end. It will all depend on how far he grows and what type of player he becomes as a starting QB. We wont know until he plays, LOTS. What we have seen so far is nothing more than road testing for a new car model. There may be lots of things that have to be fixed still. But he may have some core components that show us that he has lots of possibilities to offer. No matter how bad you feel he looked in his 1st 4 games, you cant argue with the following as looking great, the guy has wheels and can get us yards by running, the guy has a rocket for an arm which will make picks harder and means he has the power to get the ball to anywhere on the field. Right now, today, that by no means assures wins. He hasnt shown accuracy, and poise. Its got to be the whole package to be a winner.
Really, it all comes down to this. Holcomb is our present and is a better fit for now. But if the playoffs are out of reach, Losman may exceed Holcombs play with time, but it is NOT a known fact. If the plyoffs are out of reach, switch to Losman and find out what he is.