RedEyE
10-17-2005, 05:09 PM
...I don't expect that to last too long, but I'll try and enjoy it while it lasts. It's obvious that NE, while showing some real signs of weakness, is the team to be reckoned with in the division. Although the Patriots record mirrors our own, I've watched them very closely and they have what it takes to pull down another division championship. However, the entire AFC East is having trouble winning on the road. NE is just .500 in opponet arenas, and the Bills, Jets and Dolphins remain winless outside of their home cities.
I have a very small feeling (very small) that we might need to review the NFL tiebreaking rules before the end of the season (http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers). As it stands now, the Bills can decide their own playoff destiny. 3-0 in the AFC and 2-0 in the division (thus far) gives us a competitive edge that will have the rest of the division playing catch up if we can continue this pace throughout each and every conference game. Must wins for Buffalo will be against division rivals (obviously). I think that if the Bills can win 2 out of the next 4 division games that it might be enough to propel them into them into the playoffs at 4-2. Of course winning conference games are equally important. Doing just that will be much more difficult.
Oakland could give the Bills some momentum that they greatly need as they head into the heart of a rather thick schedule. Oakland is hurting terribly on defense, but they can put up points on offense as well. This Bills defense is not what it was a year ago and has yet to establish an identity. We can't continue to give up yards on the ground they way we have been and expect to get far this season. The adjustments need to be made this week. A win over Oakland would not only gives us a winning record, but it keeps us undefeated in the conference. The only other team in the AFC that can make that claim is the Colts.
If the Bills win in Oakland, I could accept a loss to NE in Foxboro the following week. But this will be the time that seperates the men from the boys. If the Bills drop games to Oakland AND NE, post season play will most likely be on the golf course rather than the football field.
That then brings us to the BYE week, giving us 2 weeks to prepare for a much improved KC team. Thankfully this one is at home. With an extra week for preparation and the home field advantage, the Bills could pull the rug out from under the Cheifs.
pausing.... calculating....
So....if all goes well (and according to my semi-realistic expecations), after week 10 the Bills could find themselves 5-4 overall, 5-1 in the conference and 2-1 in the division. Not a bad situation for a team looking for a playoff berth in this hard fighting AFC.
Sound good so far?
Not so fast....
Let's look ahead at the rest of the season...
Week 11 we head out to Sand Diego for a late game with the Chargers. I just can't envision this team beating KC, Oakland and San Diego. And beating the Chargers in Southern Cal. will prove much more difficult than trying to take down a depleted Raiders team. Bills drop to .500 on the season and find themselves 5-2 in the conference.
Week 12, Carolina at home. Already 0-3 in the NFC (all NFC South), the Panthers aren't a better opponent for this team to beat. The Bills home field advantage might be helpful, but I doubt it. The Panthers walked all over the Patriots and the Bills will most likely allow the same thing happen to them. Uh-oh, the Bills find themselves at 5-6 now. But wait...were still 5-2 in the conference, and still 2-1 in the division.
All is not lost......
..or is it...
Week 13, Buffalo heads off to Miami and after dropping 2 in a row find themselves in a very winable game. Once again the Dolphins provide the Bills with a change in their losing ways. Bills win, jump back up to .500 on the season, and are now 3-1 in the East, and 6-2 in the conference. Interesting.
Week 14, NE...a pivotal game. Who am I kidding, they're all pivotal. Honestly, I think the Bills can win this one, but I'm finding it very difficult to slide this game in the win column. Another loss at home is likely. The Bills once again drop below .500 (6-7), fall to 3-2 division and 6-3 in the conference. With 3 games left on the schedule, the playoffs seem like quite a reach.
Week 15, Denver in Buffalo on a Saturday night. This game looks disasterous for us. First of all its nationally televised, and this is never a great thing for the Bills. We love to give away games on national TV and although things looked different in pre-season, the Bills will find it rather difficult to beat the Broncos in regular season. Especially if they haven't found a way to stop the run by now. I hope this is a hard fought game in the snow. The Bills are now 6-8 on the season, 6-4 in the conference and still 3-2 in the division.
Week 16...off to Cincy. The Bengals will be looking for a division title with this game. They'll get it. All this typing really hurts now.... 6-9 overall, nearly .500 in the conference (6-5), and still 3-2 in the division.
Week 17. The last week for Buffalo Bills football and we play the Jets. no suprise the Bills will win this game, but not for the damage has been done.
The season ends up looking like this:
7-9 overall / 7-5 in the conference / 4-2 in the division
If the Bills can go 8-8 with a strong conference and division record, it might be enough to get them into the playoffs, but I serioulsy have my doubts.
I have a very small feeling (very small) that we might need to review the NFL tiebreaking rules before the end of the season (http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers). As it stands now, the Bills can decide their own playoff destiny. 3-0 in the AFC and 2-0 in the division (thus far) gives us a competitive edge that will have the rest of the division playing catch up if we can continue this pace throughout each and every conference game. Must wins for Buffalo will be against division rivals (obviously). I think that if the Bills can win 2 out of the next 4 division games that it might be enough to propel them into them into the playoffs at 4-2. Of course winning conference games are equally important. Doing just that will be much more difficult.
Oakland could give the Bills some momentum that they greatly need as they head into the heart of a rather thick schedule. Oakland is hurting terribly on defense, but they can put up points on offense as well. This Bills defense is not what it was a year ago and has yet to establish an identity. We can't continue to give up yards on the ground they way we have been and expect to get far this season. The adjustments need to be made this week. A win over Oakland would not only gives us a winning record, but it keeps us undefeated in the conference. The only other team in the AFC that can make that claim is the Colts.
If the Bills win in Oakland, I could accept a loss to NE in Foxboro the following week. But this will be the time that seperates the men from the boys. If the Bills drop games to Oakland AND NE, post season play will most likely be on the golf course rather than the football field.
That then brings us to the BYE week, giving us 2 weeks to prepare for a much improved KC team. Thankfully this one is at home. With an extra week for preparation and the home field advantage, the Bills could pull the rug out from under the Cheifs.
pausing.... calculating....
So....if all goes well (and according to my semi-realistic expecations), after week 10 the Bills could find themselves 5-4 overall, 5-1 in the conference and 2-1 in the division. Not a bad situation for a team looking for a playoff berth in this hard fighting AFC.
Sound good so far?
Not so fast....
Let's look ahead at the rest of the season...
Week 11 we head out to Sand Diego for a late game with the Chargers. I just can't envision this team beating KC, Oakland and San Diego. And beating the Chargers in Southern Cal. will prove much more difficult than trying to take down a depleted Raiders team. Bills drop to .500 on the season and find themselves 5-2 in the conference.
Week 12, Carolina at home. Already 0-3 in the NFC (all NFC South), the Panthers aren't a better opponent for this team to beat. The Bills home field advantage might be helpful, but I doubt it. The Panthers walked all over the Patriots and the Bills will most likely allow the same thing happen to them. Uh-oh, the Bills find themselves at 5-6 now. But wait...were still 5-2 in the conference, and still 2-1 in the division.
All is not lost......
..or is it...
Week 13, Buffalo heads off to Miami and after dropping 2 in a row find themselves in a very winable game. Once again the Dolphins provide the Bills with a change in their losing ways. Bills win, jump back up to .500 on the season, and are now 3-1 in the East, and 6-2 in the conference. Interesting.
Week 14, NE...a pivotal game. Who am I kidding, they're all pivotal. Honestly, I think the Bills can win this one, but I'm finding it very difficult to slide this game in the win column. Another loss at home is likely. The Bills once again drop below .500 (6-7), fall to 3-2 division and 6-3 in the conference. With 3 games left on the schedule, the playoffs seem like quite a reach.
Week 15, Denver in Buffalo on a Saturday night. This game looks disasterous for us. First of all its nationally televised, and this is never a great thing for the Bills. We love to give away games on national TV and although things looked different in pre-season, the Bills will find it rather difficult to beat the Broncos in regular season. Especially if they haven't found a way to stop the run by now. I hope this is a hard fought game in the snow. The Bills are now 6-8 on the season, 6-4 in the conference and still 3-2 in the division.
Week 16...off to Cincy. The Bengals will be looking for a division title with this game. They'll get it. All this typing really hurts now.... 6-9 overall, nearly .500 in the conference (6-5), and still 3-2 in the division.
Week 17. The last week for Buffalo Bills football and we play the Jets. no suprise the Bills will win this game, but not for the damage has been done.
The season ends up looking like this:
7-9 overall / 7-5 in the conference / 4-2 in the division
If the Bills can go 8-8 with a strong conference and division record, it might be enough to get them into the playoffs, but I serioulsy have my doubts.