Mitchy moo
11-07-2005, 01:41 PM
I know this is week 9 and it maybe too late but I think this team is teetering on the edge of finding success. There are certain things that all good teams have in common to be successful. There are some important fundamental categories that the Bills are towards the top of the league in. Now some of these things are simple and obvious but they also point to the fact that the Bills may not be as far from being a good football team as some might think.
First of all the Bills are one of the better rushing teams in football. They currently rank 9th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. To be a good team you must be able to run the football. The Bills can.
Secondly they are 7th in the NFL in time of possession per game with 31:46. Once again...in order to be a successful team you have to be able to keep the other teams offense on the sidelines. The Bills offense has done a decent job of that by sustaining drives.
Thirdly...as stagnant as this offense has looked at times the Bills are still 12th best in the NFL at converting 3rd downs. Once again I will say this is one of the important things that teams have to do to be successful. Thewre is obviously room for improvement here but they have done a reasonable job converting.
One of the most important stats that can usually tell you something about a football team is turnover differential. The Bills are once again near the top of the league in both taking care of the football and taking it away from the opponents. The Bills TO differential is +8. That is good for 4th best in the NFL. They have only given the ball away to the opponents 10 times (9th best in the league) and have taken it away 18 times (4th best).
Now...before everyone jumps on me about being a cheerleader and looking for the silver lining I am well aware that there are plenty of categories where the Bills are near the bottom of the league. Plenty of things that need to be corrected. That is what I would like to discuss.
How does a football team that runs the football well, sustains drives, plays great special teams, wins the Turnover battle, and is fairly efficient on 3rd down not manage to win more games?
Well IMO most of the problems are correctable with the personel that the Bills have.
Offensively it's a progressive thing. This offense has shown the ability to drive the field but can't seem to cap off drives on a consistent basis. I think punching it into the endzone more often is the next step that we will see this offense take now that they are getting more comfortable with each other. The lack of the big play is definitely part of it. Every team needs to be able to score from outside the redzone sometimes. It sounds stupid but the only place this offense really needs to improve is to finish drives by either developing a few more big plays or finding ways to do it inside the redzone. I honestly think this offense is close to finding it.
Now the defense is a different story but in some ways the same. They are being killed by big plays...especially on 3rd down. They are one of the worst defenses in 3rd down percentage...especially 3rd and long. They have actually been fairly decent at getting teams to 3rd down but then they let them convert 43% of the time. Why?? I'm not sure. Maybe they attack a little too much and should drop more guys into coverage and defend the marker.
This defense has also been one of the worst in the 4th quarter. I don't know if it's a conditioning issue or the coaches failing to make adjustments. I'm not going to pretend to know how to fix it but it seems to me that it can be fixed.
My whole point to this post is that in many ways this is not a terrible football team as some people would believe. They really have been in almost every game and find a way to blow it. I don't know how you get a team over that hump. I'm sure that many people have different theories on how to do that. What I do know is that certian stats don't lie and the Bills are doing alot of things right. If the offense can find a way to cap off drives just a little better combined with the defense finding a way to get off the field a little more often this would look like a different football team. A tweek here and a tweek there can make a big difference.
Come ahead and trash me for being positive. I'm sure it's coming.
First of all the Bills are one of the better rushing teams in football. They currently rank 9th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. To be a good team you must be able to run the football. The Bills can.
Secondly they are 7th in the NFL in time of possession per game with 31:46. Once again...in order to be a successful team you have to be able to keep the other teams offense on the sidelines. The Bills offense has done a decent job of that by sustaining drives.
Thirdly...as stagnant as this offense has looked at times the Bills are still 12th best in the NFL at converting 3rd downs. Once again I will say this is one of the important things that teams have to do to be successful. Thewre is obviously room for improvement here but they have done a reasonable job converting.
One of the most important stats that can usually tell you something about a football team is turnover differential. The Bills are once again near the top of the league in both taking care of the football and taking it away from the opponents. The Bills TO differential is +8. That is good for 4th best in the NFL. They have only given the ball away to the opponents 10 times (9th best in the league) and have taken it away 18 times (4th best).
Now...before everyone jumps on me about being a cheerleader and looking for the silver lining I am well aware that there are plenty of categories where the Bills are near the bottom of the league. Plenty of things that need to be corrected. That is what I would like to discuss.
How does a football team that runs the football well, sustains drives, plays great special teams, wins the Turnover battle, and is fairly efficient on 3rd down not manage to win more games?
Well IMO most of the problems are correctable with the personel that the Bills have.
Offensively it's a progressive thing. This offense has shown the ability to drive the field but can't seem to cap off drives on a consistent basis. I think punching it into the endzone more often is the next step that we will see this offense take now that they are getting more comfortable with each other. The lack of the big play is definitely part of it. Every team needs to be able to score from outside the redzone sometimes. It sounds stupid but the only place this offense really needs to improve is to finish drives by either developing a few more big plays or finding ways to do it inside the redzone. I honestly think this offense is close to finding it.
Now the defense is a different story but in some ways the same. They are being killed by big plays...especially on 3rd down. They are one of the worst defenses in 3rd down percentage...especially 3rd and long. They have actually been fairly decent at getting teams to 3rd down but then they let them convert 43% of the time. Why?? I'm not sure. Maybe they attack a little too much and should drop more guys into coverage and defend the marker.
This defense has also been one of the worst in the 4th quarter. I don't know if it's a conditioning issue or the coaches failing to make adjustments. I'm not going to pretend to know how to fix it but it seems to me that it can be fixed.
My whole point to this post is that in many ways this is not a terrible football team as some people would believe. They really have been in almost every game and find a way to blow it. I don't know how you get a team over that hump. I'm sure that many people have different theories on how to do that. What I do know is that certian stats don't lie and the Bills are doing alot of things right. If the offense can find a way to cap off drives just a little better combined with the defense finding a way to get off the field a little more often this would look like a different football team. A tweek here and a tweek there can make a big difference.
Come ahead and trash me for being positive. I'm sure it's coming.