TURNOVERS: An Analysis of Turnovers in the 2002 Season

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  • WG
    Drew and Sam stole all my hair
    • Jul 2002
    • 9450

    TURNOVERS: An Analysis of Turnovers in the 2002 Season

    The "headline" word-on-the-street about turnovers was that Henry's 8 lost fumbles had a huge hand in costing us victories this season. The truth be told for those willing to accept it is that Drew's INTs and fumbles lost cost us far more!

    Travis Henry

    Henry had 8 lost fumbles. (and recovered at least one of Drew's on a sack) How many of those 8 impacted the games?

    5 of those 8 were in games that we won thereby not impacting those games ultimately.


    The 3 other games were: Denver, Green Bay, and the first Jets game.

    1st Jets game: Henry's fumble did not cost the team anything as the Jets went 3-and-out on the following drive. Buffalo was down by 3 at the time and got the ball back only 6 yards further back from the LoS that they had on Henry's fumble. The Bills were trailing by 3 at the time. Henry had one of his best games of the season otherwise.

    Effect of fumble: negligible

    Denver game: Henry's fumble was the only turnover of the day. His fumble was returned by Denver for a TD.

    Effect of fumble: Cost the Bills the game

    Green Bay game: Henry's fumble did not cost the team anything other than field position as the Packers went 3-and-out on their subsequent drive. The Bills got the ball back for what was the last drive of the 1st half and did not score. The game was tied at the time of the fumble.

    Effect of fumble: negligible

    Bottom line: Henry's fumbles/turnovers cost the Bills one game only and nothing significant in any other game.


    Drew Bledsoe

    Bledsoe had 15 INTs on the season. Bledsoe added 4 additional fumbles lost. How many of those 18 TOs impacted the games?

    All 15 INTs occurred in 7 games. The Bills lost every single one of those 7 games. 3 of his 4 lost fumbles in those games as well for a combined 18 of 19 turnovers occurring in games that the Bills lost. That's 2.6 TO/game in losses by Bledsoe.


    Those games were: Both Jets games, both N.E. games, the Oakland game, the K.C. game, and the Green Bay game.

    1st Jets Game: Bledsoe's first INT came w/ the Bills leading 3-0 on the second drive of the game on a 3rd-and-6 at the Jets 32. Bledsoe's second INT came w/ the Bills leading 10-7 on 3rd-and-4. It set the Jets up 1st-and-10 in our red zone at the Bills 19 YL and set up their 2nd touchdown.

    Effect of INTs: One cost the Bills at least a FG try and possibly a touchdown. The second cost the Bills 7 points for a 10-14 point swing in a game that went to O/T.

    Oakland Game: Bledsoe had 3 INTs for the only TOs of the game. The first was on 1st-and-10 w/ the Bills leading 24-21 and set the Raiders up at the Bills 32 YL and resulted in a TD for the Raiders. The second was with the Bills trailing by 4 w/ just over 11 minutes remaining in the game at the Raider 27 YL. It cost the Bills a FG or TD and resulted in a TD return by Buchanon to put the Raiders up by 11. The third was on 2nd-and-7 at the Raider 7 YL and cost the Bills a FG or TD.

    Effect of INTs: Two led to 14 Raider points, 7 directly, while two of the three cost the Bills between 6 and 14 points. The result was a point swing of between 20 and 28 points in an 18 point loss.

    Kansas City Game: Bledsoe had the only TO of the day on one INT. It occurred w/ the Bills trailing 17-16 on 2nd-and-10 at the K.C. 40 YL.

    Effect of INT: Cost the Bills an opportunity to win the game w/ either a FG or TD.

    2nd Jets Game: Bledsoe had all 3 Bills TOs in that game. 2 INTs and 1 FUM lost. The first INT occurred on 1st-and-10 w/ the score tied at 3 on the Bills' second drive of the game. It set the Jets up at midfield from where they scored a TD. The second INT came midway thru the 2nd Q w/ the Bills at the Jets' 45 YL and trailing 10-3 and on 3rd-and-3. It gave the Jets good field position and resulted in 7 more Jet points on their following drive. The fumble occurred in the 4th Q w/ ~ 8 min. remaining and the Bills trailing 31-13.

    Effect of INTs: Led to 14 Jets points.

    2nd N.E. Game: Bledsoe had 4 INTs in that game. The first INT came in the 1st Q w/ the Bills trailing 10-0. It occurred on 1st-and-10 and set the Pats up 1st-and-goal at the Bills 9 YL for their second touchdown of the game to take a 17-0 lead. The second INT occurred on 2nd-and-1 at the N.E. 1 YL at the end of a drive which had begun at the Bills' 9 YL and cost the Bills a TD. The Pats scored a FG on the resulting drive. The third INT occurred on 1st-and-10 and set the Pats up at the Bills' 26 YL and resulted in a failed N.E. FG. The fourth occurred w/ the Bills trailing 27-10 and on the very next Bills drive on a 1st-and-10 at the N.E. 44 to take the Bills out of a scoring opportunity.

    Effect of INTs: Cost the Bills a touchdown and led to 10 N.E. points and possibly cost the Bills another scoring opportunity for at least a 17 point swing in a 10 point loss.

    Green Bay Game: Bledsoe had 4 fumbles with 2 being recovered, along w/ 2 INTs to account for 4 of the Bills' 6 TOs. The first INT occurred on 3rd-and-4 at the G.B. 4 YL with no score and cost the Bills at least a TD. The second INT occurred on 1st-and-10 with the Bills trailing 3-0 and set the Packers up at the Bills 45 YL w/ the 1st half running out before the Packers could score. The first lost fumble occurred on 3rd-and-14 with the Bills trailing 3-0 and set the Packers up at the Bills 39 YL for their only TD of the day. The second lost fumble occurred on 2nd-and-10 at the G.B. 17 YL in the red zone and cost the Bills 3 or 7 and an opportunity to attempt an onside kick in bad weather conditions and an opportunity to tie or win.

    Effect of INT: Cost the Bills 6-14 points and gave the Packers 7 points for a 13-21 point swing in a 10 point loss.

    Bottom line: Bledsoe's INTs/turnovers cost the Bills five games and had a significant hand in at least one of the other two losses.


    BOTTOM LINE:

    Henry's fumbles cost us one game v. Denver.

    Drew's INTs and fumbles cost us at least 5 games.
    Replace Donahoe with Modrak and fire the entire coaching staff!

    Then let's go to Disneyworld!

    GO BILLS!!!

  • PA Season Ticket Holder
    You mess up my night, and I'll mess up your day
    • Jul 2002
    • 3574

    #2
    Can't argue with that.


    BUFFALO BILLS AND MLB POOLS

    http://www.billszone.com/YourSite/global/nfl/pool.php?action=home

    Comment

    • THATHURMANATOR
      Registered User
      • Jul 2002
      • 69112

      #3
      WYS I will give you the Oakland, KC, and Greenbay games for sure. The others however were total team breakdowns in which his ints most definitly hurt us but were not the sole reason...

      Comment

      • Judge
        Registered User
        • Aug 2002
        • 1310

        #4
        Any turnover is bad. There's no such thing as a good turnover.

        Wys's analysis gets an "F" for substance.
        Argue like hell. Keep it clean. And when it's over, shake hands and root for our team!

        Comment

        • Don Cherry
          BFZ Hockey Commissioner
          • Oct 2002
          • 877

          #5
          Gotta agree with judge here.

          If defenses played better, or receivers hung on to catches, or if the Bills showed confidence in their running game in certain places- then the opportunity to throwe an interception is not there.

          Stating the fumble in the Jets game was "negligible" is ignorant.
          It killed a drive - who knows if the Bills would have scored. It also cost time off the clock. Sure, you say the Bills got the ball back pretty close to the fumble spot- but in a game that went to OT - it's not a stretch to think what the Bills could have done with another 1-2 minutes of game clock.

          Maybe another win, maybe us getting pasted in the playoffs instead of the Colts or Jets


          Comment

          • Wys Guy
            Drew and Sam stole all my hair
            • Jul 2002
            • 9450

            #6
            Well, OK Cherry, how much better did you want the D to play v. G.B., K.C., the 2nd Jets game in which the D held the Jets to only 17 points that weren't off of Drew INTs, the second Pats game in which the D held the Pats to only 10 points not off of offensive TOs, 10 by Drew?

            Why don't you grace us w/ your wisdom and 'substance' and tell us all how many points would have been acceptible please.

            Bottom line: for those of you who either can't or didn't read, if Drew had not made even a fraction of those INTs where and when he did, then we would easily have won another 3 games.

            Also, any coincidence that he didn't throw a single INT vs. all of the weakest teams, but he tossed them all costing us games in the 7 most difficult games of the season.

            Those facts are what they are. Even your "ignorance is bliss/head-in-the-sand" approach ignoring them doesn't alter the facts one iota. Expect more of the same next season! It's happened in 10 of 10 seasons now!

            Sorry to say...

            GO BILLS!!!
            Replace Donahoe with Modrak and fire the entire coaching staff!

            Then let's go to Disneyworld!

            GO BILLS!!!

            Comment

            • Wys Guy
              Drew and Sam stole all my hair
              • Jul 2002
              • 9450

              #7
              Originally posted by Don Cherry
              Stating the fumble in the Jets game was "negligible" is ignorant.
              Did you read why I said that Cherry?

              I gave the same leeway to Drew who I'm sure if I said the same thing about his INT that was the same in another game, that you'd have a kniption!

              It was negligible. Stating that it cost us anything is ignorant!
              Replace Donahoe with Modrak and fire the entire coaching staff!

              Then let's go to Disneyworld!

              GO BILLS!!!

              Comment

              • BledsoeTOreedfor6
                Registered User
                • Jul 2002
                • 42375

                #8
                ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZz

                Comment

                • Cntrygal
                  Visually stunning but camera-shy.
                  • Jul 2002
                  • 44884

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Wys Guy
                  Did you read why I said that Cherry?
                  Maybe he didn't have time to read it yet... after all... there's other novelists on this board that do admit to that.
                  Originally posted by notacon
                  The biggest thing we learned from the Bills is that they are a resilient bunch and did what they had to do to win instead of past years where they fold like a cheap lawn chair.

                  For news, articles and other "stuff"... BillsZone.com

                  Comment

                  • Voltron
                    Registered User
                    • Jul 2002
                    • 10586

                    #10
                    My impresion of wys.


                    Blah blah blah Bleadsoe sucks .... Blah Blah blah Henery can't stop fumbling. Blah blah blah I hate my team and secretly want them to go down the toilet as long as the QB and coach are people I don't like blah blah blah.


                    JK wys don't get your panties in a bunch.

                    That is what it appears to me when you write these long winded tirades of hate for Drew.

                    You know that one of these days you will have to accept the fact that with the money we spend on him he is not going any where for a long time.
                    Get all the fools on your side and you can be elected to anything.
                    - Frank Dane

                    "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who are not."
                    -Thomas Jefferson


                    The rule is perfect: in all matters of opinion our adversaries are insane.
                    - Mark Twain

                    Comment

                    • Wys Guy
                      Drew and Sam stole all my hair
                      • Jul 2002
                      • 9450

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Voltron
                      My impresion of wys.


                      Blah blah blah Bleadsoe sucks .... Blah Blah blah Henery can't stop fumbling. Blah blah blah I hate my team and secretly want them to go down the toilet as long as the QB and coach are people I don't like blah blah blah.


                      JK wys don't get your panties in a bunch.

                      That is what it appears to me when you write these long winded tirades of hate for Drew.

                      You know that one of these days you will have to accept the fact that with the money we spend on him he is not going any where for a long time.
                      At least I feel better there Voltron. You have me just about completely wrong.

                      As to:

                      "You know that one of these days you will have to accept the fact that with the money we spend on him he is not going any where for a long time."

                      I already know and accept that. It will be interesting to see his support wane over the course of next season and see what the majority fan opinion is at that time.

                      As to a "long time", I'll predict that the Bills do not restructure his contract after the intial part of it, 4 yrs. out of the 10 I believe, expires. I think his play will have become more of an issue by then and that the team will find other options that don't lose all the biggest of games for us. We'll see. No sense in talking about what's gonna happen in 3 seasons. :)

                      I know Drew is here thru at least next season however. Only a fool would think otherwise. I don't know if he'll remain healthy since he's not commanding nearly as much respect from opponents and since he has brick feet. No matter how good our OL is or will be, w/ his lack of mobility and propensity to hold onto the ball too long he'll get whacked at some point. Anyway, I'll give him thru next season before the criticism starts coming and then one year after that before the FO decides that it's not worth the cash to resign him. If he were to get hurt next season and one of our backups, whoever they will be then, plays well, I can even see us trading him at the end of the year.


                      B2,

                      I hear ya bro! Ditto from this end...



                      I'll see if I can make a "sum up post" demonstrating the substance in the posts countering the original content of this thread.
                      Replace Donahoe with Modrak and fire the entire coaching staff!

                      Then let's go to Disneyworld!

                      GO BILLS!!!

                      Comment

                      • Wys Guy
                        Drew and Sam stole all my hair
                        • Jul 2002
                        • 9450

                        #12
                        Here were the responses:

                        Originally posted by THATHURMANATOR
                        WYS I will give you the Oakland, KC, and Greenbay games for sure. The others however were total team breakdowns in which his ints most definitly hurt us but were not the sole reason...
                        Good depth!


                        Originally posted by Judge
                        Any turnover is bad. There's no such thing as a good turnover.

                        Wys's analysis gets an "F" for substance.
                        Great analysis there Judge! Don't go runnin' to join your local debate team, eh!


                        Originally posted by Don Cherry
                        Gotta agree with judge here.

                        If defenses played better, or receivers hung on to catches, or if the Bills showed confidence in their running game in certain places- then the opportunity to throwe an interception is not there.

                        Stating the fumble in the Jets game was "negligible" is ignorant.
                        It killed a drive - who knows if the Bills would have scored. It also cost time off the clock. Sure, you say the Bills got the ball back pretty close to the fumble spot- but in a game that went to OT - it's not a stretch to think what the Bills could have done with another 1-2 minutes of game clock.

                        Maybe another win, maybe us getting pasted in the playoffs instead of the Colts or Jets
                        LOL!!

                        Yeah, and maybe Bledsoe not throwing all those INTs in only 7 games wouldn't have costed us every single one of them! Hmmm!


                        Originally posted by BledsoeTOreedfor6

                        ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZz
                        Indeed...!


                        Originally posted by Voltron
                        My impresion of wys.


                        Blah blah blah Bleadsoe sucks .... Blah Blah blah Henery can't stop fumbling. Blah blah blah I hate my team and secretly want them to go down the toilet as long as the QB and coach are people I don't like blah blah blah.


                        JK wys don't get your panties in a bunch.

                        That is what it appears to me when you write these long winded tirades of hate for Drew.

                        You know that one of these days you will have to accept the fact that with the money we spend on him he is not going any where for a long time.
                        Like I said Voltron, at least I have solace in the fact of knowing that you haven't a clue what my positions are. I appreciate your lightheartedness however. Still, don't go runnin' to join your local debate team either.


                        Anyway,..., great analysis guys. You forgot about how my undies stink, or you forgot to call me "four eyes", and there's several other things you could have used in retort as well.

                        Glad to see all the responses to the actual game data and situations/analysis, etc. Great to see!
                        Replace Donahoe with Modrak and fire the entire coaching staff!

                        Then let's go to Disneyworld!

                        GO BILLS!!!

                        Comment

                        • SoCalBillsFan
                          Expert on Experts
                          • Jul 2002
                          • 2879

                          #13
                          WHO CARES who's fumbles/int's cost us more? Ok, we'll tell the coaching staff to work only on helping drew with his turnovers, not on henry, because his turnovers dont matter...

                          1 turnover does not a game make. Defense, playcalling-they all have an effect. Sure, drew's turnover probably did cost us a couple games. But if you are gonna look at it that way, how bout the games he might have won? Minnesota? The comeback in the first jets game? HOw about the 177 straight passes without an INT? He has upside as well. You could look at any qb and say he lost a couple games.

                          Fact is drew is the QB. He's not perfect. He's not the best. He's gonna make mistakes. But he is very capapble, had some big games, has the confidence of the team, and is a leader. He can do the job. Sure, he'll make mistakes, just like everybody else, some of them costly. That's the life of a QB. But he's not going anywhere right now, so let's get used to him.

                          Comment

                          • THATHURMANATOR
                            Registered User
                            • Jul 2002
                            • 69112

                            #14
                            "Good depth!"

                            Thanks I try!!!

                            Comment

                            • THATHURMANATOR
                              Registered User
                              • Jul 2002
                              • 69112

                              #15
                              "Anyway,..., great analysis guys. You forgot about how my undies stink, or you forgot to call me "four eyes", and there's several other things you could have used in retort as well."

                              I have yet to read where someone called you any names in this thread.

                              Comment

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