Great Analysis of Raiders v. Bucs

[WG]

I agree w/ this wholeheartedly. Where I differ is in that I don't think the Raiders will have success running the ball and thereby will have to throw more. The Buc CBs are good enough to cover Rice MTM as well as Garner out of the backfield. The rest are good enough to play oustanding coverage all day long against the only two other receivers that have made an impact all year; Porter and Brown.

While the Buc O may not have tons of rushing yards, I see Gannon w/ 3+ INTs and a Raider rushing game w/ less than 60 yards as well. Gannon will need to be very careful when running. The Buc D is extremely fast and solid everywhere whereas the Raider D is not. Tennessee moved the ball just fine against the Raiders and George is nowhere near the top of his game any longer. The Bucs beat a Philly D that is better than the Raider D and that was in Philly.

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/sports/columns/0121story2_columns.shtml

By Bob Matthews
Democrat and Chronicle

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

(January 21, 2003) — The best reason to think Tampa Bay can win Super Bowl XXXVII is the team’s top-ranked defensive unit. The best reason to think Oakland can’t lose is Tampa Bay’s running game.

Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, seven teams have taken the league’s No. 1 defense into a Super Bowl and are 6-1 in those games.

The Raiders aren’t likely to score 30 points against Tampa Bay but 20 points should be enough to win.

Quarterback Brad Johnson’s exceptional season throwing the football was the main reason Tampa Bay’s offense improved this season. But even new coach Jon Gruden couldn’t upgrade the rushing attack.

The Buccaneers ranked 24th in rushing this season, averaging only 97.3 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry. The pass-happy Raiders averaged 110.1 yards rushing per game and 4.3 yards per carry.

In Tampa Bay’s two playoff victories, it averaged only 2.4 yards rushing on 70 carries.

Brad Johnson is among the least mobile quarterbacks in the NFL and the Buccaneers have to rely on Michael Pittman and Mike Alstott to move the ball on the ground and lossen up opposing defenses.

Pittman was a disappointment in his first season as the team’s heavy-duty running back. He had 204 carries for 718 yards (3.5-yard average) in the regular season and has been worse in the playoffs (25 carries for 58 yards for a 2.3-yard average).

Alstott had 196 carries for 548 yards (3.8-yard average) in the regular season and also has struggled in the playoffs (34 carries for 85 yards for a 2.5-yard average).

Alstott is at his best running straight ahead, but Oakland tackles Sam Adams and John Parrella are two of the NFL’s toughest run stuffers.

Third-year running back Aaron Strecker had some impressive rushing numbers in limited action for the Buccaneers this season (28 carries for 174 yards for a 6.2-yard average) but it seems unlikely that Gruden would entrust him with a heavier load in a Super Bowl.

Without a consistent running threat to worry about, Oakland can concentrate on stopping Tampa Bay’s passing game, which lacks quick-strike receivers. If Johnson plays the game of his life, the Buccaneers might have a chance.

Defense is supposed to win championships and history says that usually happens when the very best defense reaches the Super Bowl. But it is difficult to project Tampa Bay’s offense scoring enough points to beat the Raiders.

I’ll be spending the rest of this week looking for reasons to think Tampa Bay might upset Oakland in Super Bowl XXXVII but I don’t expect to find any.

[Patrick76777]

No way Gannon throws 3 Int’s he’s far too accurate, but I like the Bucs in this one.

[WG]

Possibly, but Gannon's only had to face one of the league's top 10 Ds once all season in Miami.

He's also only had to face one of the top 10 passing yardage Ds besides us this year also in Miami. We weren't nearly as good then as we became. As a matter of fact we were ranked in the 20s at the time.

In any case, Gannon played poorly in the Miami game going:

17 of 31 for 204 yds, 6.6 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT

90 yards, or about half of that, was on the lone TD drive. They only had 56 yards rushing even w/ Gannon.

His TD came w/ under 4 minutes left in the game and was likely against a prevent D.

At some point, the pressure's gonna be on w/o a running game and Gannon will force some throws, at least a few of which will end up INTs.

So I see T.B. playing at least as well as Miami since they're much better. I've been saying all season long, especially when the Raiders came out of the gates 4-0, that they were a 10-6 team w/ an easy schedule. I stand by that. They're overrated. The Jets beat themselves thru stupid INTs as did the Titans. Officiating made a couple of really dubious calls as well such as that PI/PF combo against Rolle on Sunday when I didn't see either of them. It's my own personal feeling that the officials were trying to make up to the Raiders for last year's debacle.

They have the NFL's 18th ranked rushing O and that's largely b/c of Gannon running. Gannon's nuts if he runs much against the Bucs and they won't have much of a running game at all v. the Bucs. It's that one dimensionality that will cost them the game. The Bucs may very well win 13-10, but I don't see the Raiders putting up more than 20 points or so all game. If they make errors, INTs/FUMs, then that will only make things worse. The Raiders have not faced a D even close to the Buc D and they're in for a shock!

Gruden will have the Bucs ready as he knows just as much about the offensively capability of each and every one of the Raider offensive players, perhaps better than Callahan.

[Patrick76777]

But the Raiders passing game is a safe passing game. A lot of short stuff, mostly safe passes. I don’t see 3 int’s in this game. The only reason I give them a chance is TB’s lack of a running game. It could put the ball back in Gannon’s hands over and over down the stretch. But I still see TB taking this one.


And I LOVE them with the 4 points.

[colin]

Gannon did get wicked flustered against the fish, he is not used to ANY pressure. When the Bucs bring the heat on 3rd and long, he will mess up.

Bucs win.

[THATHURMANATOR]

I think the bucs D is going to give gannon lots of problems. Either way I am hoping for a good game!!!

[timfromjersey]

The Raiders will win this game because the Bucs have Brad Johnson at qb. Last week's win not withstanding, he has had a poor playoff record. The Raiders have enough defense to put pressure on Johnson and force him into three interceptions and Oakland has a great secondary when healthy. The Eagles were in last week's game until the late interception and Oakland has a far superior offense with many playmakers who will eventually get the better of Tampa's defense. I don't believe Tampa will score 10 points offensively and they had better hope Brooks scores tds on defense.

The Raiders were a pass frenzy team all year, so them not running the ball against Tampa will not be a factor. They didn't really run well until late in the game against Tennessee anyway, when the defense was tired.

Forget the Miami game comparison. That was then, this is now. This is for all the marbles and Oakland has too many proven big game performers with lots of playoff experience and Gannon makes almost no mental mistakes.

EE, keep your comments to yourself on the length of this post.

[Earthquake Enyart]

Oakland will get the lead, then Tampa is screwed. Tampa's WR's are too slow to be dangerous, and their OL is average at best. Oakland will beat them into submission just like they did to Tennessee

[lordofgun]

Originally posted by Earthquake Enyart
Oakland will get the lead, then Tampa is screwed. Tampa's WR's are too slow to be dangerous, and their OL is average at best. Oakland will beat them into submission just like they did to Tennessee