Our draft postion will be... [Archive] - BillsZone.com

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Mr. Cynical

12-24-2005, 11:29 PM

...no better than our current position at #11 IMO.

http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/draft/update

The top 5 are untouchable now (from us).

I think the teams from 6-10 will pretty much stay the same given the remaining games, although one or two may swap.

If we lose to NYJ, we'll probably stay put at #11.

If we beat NYJ, we will probably drop down to #13 or #14.

I think the worst we can do is #14.

Well, we got Ruben Brown at #14 in 1995 so....

OpIv37

12-24-2005, 11:43 PM

I'm more concerned that the Jets don't get the #1 pick to get Reggie Bush- I don't want to play him twice a year. If SF can beat Houston, that won't happen. If Houston beats SF, we beat the Jets, NO loses, and GB loses that means the following teams will have 3 wins each: NJJ, Houston, SF, GB, NO (and no, NJ is not a typo).

Michael82

12-26-2005, 09:47 AM

Don't they do a coin toss if teams are all tied up with the same record?

12-26-2005, 02:00 PM

Ickybaluky

12-26-2005, 02:22 PM

Don't they do a coin toss if teams are all tied up with the same record?

No, strength of schedule is the tiebreaker for draft position. If the record is the same, the team with the highest winning% of oppenents gets the edge.

If strength of schedule is the same, then it goes to a coin toss.

I believe the Bills have played a fairly tough schedule, although I haven't done the math.

lordofgun

12-26-2005, 03:03 PM

No, strength of schedule is the tiebreaker for draft position. If the record is the same, the team with the highest winning% of oppenents gets the edge.

If strength of schedule is the same, then it goes to a coin toss.

I believe the Bills have played a fairly tough schedule, although I haven't done the math.
Actually, the team with lowest opponents' winning % gets the edge.

Bmax

12-26-2005, 03:50 PM

I take pick 11 or 12... Marcus Mcneil or Rod wright from texas would be good at these spots.

Bmax

X-Era

12-26-2005, 04:12 PM

Mr. Cynical

12-26-2005, 08:30 PM

:rofl:

That sig just keeps getting better....

tampabay25690

12-27-2005, 05:48 AM

I think around 11th we need to drat Ngata from Oregon this DT will fill a huge hole that we need and will start immediately....THE Bills need a DT to stop the run and rush the passer, would be a great fit for us...

EDS

12-27-2005, 10:32 AM

TigerJ

12-27-2005, 06:21 PM

The Great Blue North draft report has the Bills at #9. If I'm not mistaken, they have usually proven to be the most accurate in past years.

Mr. Cynical

12-27-2005, 06:52 PM

The Great Blue North draft report has the Bills at #9. If I'm not mistaken, they have usually plroven to be the most accurate in past years.

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg4 align=left|left|left|left|left|left|left><TD>Sel</TD><TD>Team</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>T</TD><TD>Pct.</TD><TD>SOS</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>Houston (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/HOU)</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>13</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.133</TD><TD align=left>.556</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>New Orleans (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/NO)</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.200</TD><TD align=left>.507</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>Green Bay (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/GB)</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.200</TD><TD align=left>.520</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>N.Y. Jets (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/NYJ)</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.200</TD><TD align=left>.547</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>San Francisco (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/SF)</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.200</TD><TD align=left>.573</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>6</TD><TD align=left>Tennessee (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/TEN)</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>11</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.267</TD><TD align=left>.493</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>Oakland (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/OAK)</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>11</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.267</TD><TD align=left>.529</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>8</TD><TD align=left>Arizona (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/ARI)</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>10</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.333</TD><TD align=left>.480</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>9</TD><TD align=left>St. Louis (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/STL)</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>10</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.333</TD><TD align=left>.480</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>10</TD><TD align=left>Detroit (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/DET)</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>10</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.333</TD><TD align=left>.493</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>11</TD><TD align=left>Buffalo (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/BUF)</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>10</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.333</TD><TD align=left>.520</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>12</TD><TD align=left>Cleveland (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/CLE)</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>10</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.333</TD><TD align=left>.520</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>13</TD><TD align=left>Philadelphia (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/PHI)</TD><TD align=left>6</TD><TD align=left>9</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.400</TD><TD align=left>.524</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>14</TD><TD align=left>Baltimore (http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/BAL)</TD><TD align=left>6</TD><TD align=left>9</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>.400</TD><TD align=left>.529</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Arizona, St. Louis and Detroit are most likely losing their last game, so they will have 5 wins. I also don't see Oakland or Tenn winning either.

So.....

If we lose to the Jets, we will have 5 wins and will stay at #11 assuming SOS doesn't radically change.

If we win, we won't move up IMO. The likely scenario if we win is we'll end up #11 also, since Cleve plays Balt which makes them vie for somewhere 12-14 (mixing it up with Philly).

So that's my guess...#11. Too bad no zonebucks anymore....what ever happened to those anyway?

DaBills

12-27-2005, 07:45 PM

I'm not worried at all. What with TD's uncanny Nostradamus-like ability to get value out of the 6th round, we're all set.

:funny:

TigerJ

12-27-2005, 10:18 PM

I'm not disputing what you said, Cynical. I'm just stating (based on my recollection of previous years) that Great Blue North Draft report usually seems to beat the big boys (CBS Sportsline) for accuracy in draft order.
Here is the pertinent part of GBN's chart and the link:

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.htm

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 563px; HEIGHT: 885px" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>1 Houston
</TD><TD><CENTER> 2-13</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>.533</CENTER></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top">
</TD></TR><TR><TD>2</TD><TD>New Orleans</TD><TD><CENTER>3-12</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>.517</CENTER></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"></TD></TR><TR><TD><DT>3 </DT></TD><TD><DT>New York Jets </DT></TD><TD><CENTER>3-12</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>.533</CENTER></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"></TD></TR><TR><TD><DT>4 </DT></TD><TD><DT>Green Bay </DT></TD><TD><CENTER>3-12</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>.542</CENTER></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"></TD></TR><TR><TD>5</TD><TD>San Francisco</TD><TD><CENTER>3-12</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>546</CENTER></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"></TD></TR><TR><TD>6</TD><TD>Tennessee</TD><TD><CENTER>4-11</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>508</CENTER></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"></TD></TR><TR><TD>7</TD><TD>Oakland </TD><TD><CENTER>4-11</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>.538</CENTER></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"></TD></TR><TR><TD>8
</TD><TD><DT>St. Louis </DT></TD><TD><CENTER>5-10</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>.488</CENTER></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"></TD></TR><TR><TD><DT>9 </DT></TD><TD><DT>Buffalo </DT></TD><TD><CENTER>5-10</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>.500</CENTER></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"></TD></TR><TR><TD>10</TD><TD>Arizona</TD><TD><CENTER>5-10</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>.504</CENTER></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top">
</TD></TR><TR><TD>11</TD><TD>Detroit</TD><TD><CENTER>5-10</CENTER></TD><TD><CENTER>.504</CENTER></TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"></TD></TR><TR><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top">12
</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top">Cleveland</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top; TEXT-ALIGN: center">5-10 </TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top; TEXT-ALIGN: center">.513
</TD><TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: top"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Mr. Cynical

12-27-2005, 10:45 PM

I'm not disputing what you said, Cynical. I'm just stating (based on my recollection of previous years) that Great Blue North Draft report usually seems to beat the big boys (CBS Sportsline) for accuracy in draft order.

It's all good. :up:

That's a strange ranking system though... they list the current (15 games) W-L record of each team and they project the W-L of the opponents based on 16 games to get the SOS.

But that doesn't make sense if you think about it. If they calculated/projected the opponents W-L, wouldn't they also have the projected W-L records for the teams as well? I must be missing something....

CBS isn't a projection from what I understand. It's just the ranking based on 15 games.

TedMock

12-28-2005, 04:12 PM

I am actually glad the Bills won't have a top 5 pick - the contracts are just to big. I think 8-15 is a nice sweet spot where you can get a franchise talent without the monster contract that can potentially cripple a teams salary cap if the player does not develop.

I agree. Less money spent, and a lower chance of making a stupid pick. Top 5 would most likely yield us an overpaid, unnecessary skilled player. Maybe a number 14 could actually get us a quality O or D lineman. Not that we've done the right thing lately, but a boy can dream.

TigerJ

12-28-2005, 07:18 PM

I agree. Less money spent, and a lower chance of making a stupid pick. Top 5 would most likely yield us an overpaid, unnecessary skilled player. Maybe a number 14 could actually get us a quality O or D lineman. Not that we've done the right thing lately, but a boy can dream.

I feel the same way. I wouldn't mind the sixth or seventh slot though.

BillsSabresB.C.T. Fan

12-28-2005, 07:36 PM

Tamba Hali, Penn St.

TigerJ

12-28-2005, 08:38 PM

It's all good. :up:

That's a strange ranking system though... they list the current (15 games) W-L record of each team and they project the W-L of the opponents based on 16 games to get the SOS.

But that doesn't make sense if you think about it. If they calculated/projected the opponents W-L, wouldn't they also have the projected W-L records for the teams as well? I must be missing something....

CBS isn't a projection from what I understand. It's just the ranking based on 15 games.

They don't project what opponents final records will be. They simply take the current win/loss percentage of all 16 opponents. Thus while Buffalo has not yet played the Jets a second time, the Jets current record of 3-12 gets double weight as if Buffalo had already played them twice. Since the Jets have a terrible record, it weakens the average SOS of all Buffalo opponents and raises their draft position a bit. Since they will definitely play the Jets I think it makes the overall SOS percentage more accurate, though a win by Buffalo would throw Buffalo out of that ninth spot. I saw another web site(I've forgotten where) that also had Buffalo at #9. I assume they did their calculations the same way that GBNR does it.

In any case we'll all know where the Bills pick in a few days.

Mr. Cynical

12-28-2005, 08:49 PM

They don't project what opponents final records will be. They simply take the current win/loss percentage of all 16 opponents. Thus while Buffalo has not yet played the Jets a second time, the Jets current record of 3-12 gets double weight as if Buffalo had already played them twice. Since the Jets have a terrible record, it weakens the average SOS of all Buffalo opponents and raises their draft position a bit. Since they will definitely play the Jets I think it makes the overall SOS percentage more accurate, though a win by Buffalo would throw Buffalo out of that ninth spot. I saw another web site(I've forgotten where) that also had Buffalo at #9. I assume they did their calculations the same way that GBNR does it.

In any case we'll all know where the Bills pick in a few days.

"Opponents' W-L records are for the full 16 game schedule, not just to date."

The way it is stated they are projecting what the opponent's record for each team will be (in the end) in order to calculate the SOS to date. Anyway, like you said we'll know in a few days.

TigerJ

12-30-2005, 06:01 PM

"Opponents' W-L records are for the full 16 game schedule, not just to date."

The way it is stated they are projecting what the opponent's record for each team will be (in the end) in order to calculate the SOS to date. Anyway, like you said we'll know in a few days.

I still think we're reading what they say differently. I think the full 16 game schedule refers to the full 16 game schedule of each team listed in the draft order, not the full 16 game season of each of their opponents leading to a strength of schedul rating that is a projection. So GBNR weights the Jets twice in determining Buffalo's strength of schedule. CBS Sportsline discounts the second meeting, and the last opponent of every team on the list (and in the NFL).

hydro014

12-30-2005, 06:09 PM

Here is a site that breaks it down:

http://www.ourlads.com/draftSequence.html

X-Era

12-30-2005, 08:53 PM

Here is a site that breaks it down:

http://www.ourlads.com/draftSequence.html

My opinion is you can expect a MAJOR shift in the top 4 teams!!!

I wouldnt bank on the Ourlads list being accurate up top until the week is over.

However, we are almost 99% gonna end up at 11 or 12, maybe 10 but it would take ALOT.

ublinkwescore

01-01-2006, 08:13 PM

We also had the #14 pick in 2001 and used it to trade down to #21 for an extra
2nd rounder. Clements and Henry were pretty good picks.

I think Clements is officially washed up.