Sorry guys, Ngata is a reach at 8!!!

[X-Era]

Kiper and many others agree that Ngata has been dropping. He is a reach at 8 as of now.

Kiwi hasnt done well this week either but would be the more likey pick at 8. Its a matter of impact versus draft position.

I cant think of a single DT picked in the top 10 in the past 5 years that stands out as dominant.

Its just not worthy fo a pick that high.

Now, we have an entirely new staff, new front office, and possibly new schemes. Not a signle player on this squad was drafted by our decision makers. Meaning, there is no love loss for any of them right now. Fan favorites, high picks from the previous regime, they all get ZERO rep points from our current staff.

That may mean a shake up at some of our positions thought to be filled. McGahee? Schobel? Fletcher? they have a clean slate.

If RB Williams, DE Williams, or Hawk falls to 8, I could see us going that route pretty easily.

I fully anticipate a draft based on best available over need this year. If a need player turns out to be the best available thats a bonus, but with the draft shaping up right now, I wouldnt look for EITHER a DT or OT until at least round 2.

Again, Jauron and company have ZERO to lose by heading in a different direction at ANY of our positions.

Deangelo Williams at 8? yeah and trade McGahee. Super Mario or Kiwi at 8? hell ya. AJ Hawk? Hell ya. Jimmy Williams, Mike Huff? Hell ya.

Ngata, Winston, Scott, or Wright Its VERY unlikely.

[L.A. Playa]

2001 Richard Seymour #6
2002 John Henderson #9
2003 Kevin Williams #9

Dominant DT's taken in the top 10 in the past 5 years

[Bmax]

Link please.... ?..... Ngata of course is not at the senior bowl..He hasn't worked out for anybody so how is he dropping..? Makes no sense.. nobody is rising up the boards to pass him on the def side of the ball. Watson has had a good week in mobile moving up again... If he loses weight he may just move up further..

Kiwinuka is not a top ten 10 guy if you rate his work during the practices this week. He is having his shoulder checked out .

If hurt then then he will fall...if surgery is required. Mario williams has always been rated higher than ngata by most. He is a top 5 guy until he works out. I love the guy and would choose him over ngata in a heartbeat...

Deangelo Williams is not an option and never will be ...I wonder why the 49ers have been talking his ear off this week. Dick Jauron and Marv Levy are old school guys. They believe in building the lines first.

Run and stop the run. Why on earth would they draft a 5-8 210 back...I don't care how good he is .. And he is the truth. They won't take him. Hawk may be an option .. But forget about deangelo....

http://bills.scout.com/2/493086.html


Go Bills

Bmax

[alohabillsfan]

Bills Draft
Plan (a) D'Brickshaw (Really hope this guy is there!!!)
Plan (b) DE Williams (love to have him)
Plan (c) Find a trade partner and trade down (12-18 range-swap 1st round picks, get there 2nd round).

I do not think Ngata is dominant enough to be the 8th pick.

[X-Era]

2001 Richard Seymour #6
2002 John Henderson #9
2003 Kevin Williams #9

Dominant DT's taken in the top 10 in the past 5 years

Seymour plays just as much DE as DT and was one in college.

Henderson is not con sidered a dominant DT

Williams I will give you but even he has been inconsistent.

[X-Era]

Link please.... ?..... Ngata of course is not at the senior bowl..He hasn't worked out for anybody so how is he dropping..? Makes no sense.. nobody is rising up the boards to pass him on the def side of the ball. Watson has had a good week in mobile moving up again... If he loses weight he may just move up further..

Kiwinuka is not a top ten 10 guy if you rate his work during the practices this week. He is having his shoulder checked out .

If hurt then then he will fall...if surgery is required. Mario williams has always been rated higher than ngata by most. He is a top 5 guy until he works out. I love the guy and would choose him over ngata in a heartbeat...

Deangelo Williams is not an option and never will be ...I wonder why the 49ers have been talking his ear off this week. Dick Jauron and Marv Levy are old school guys. They believe in building the lines first.

Run and stop the run. Why on earth would they draft a 5-8 210 back...I don't care how good he is .. And he is the truth. They won't take him. Hawk may be an option .. But forget about deangelo....

http://bills.scout.com/2/493086.html


Go Bills

Bmax

He is dropping since a bad bowl game. Heres the link to Kipers big board:

http://espn.go.com/melkiper/

As I said, Ngata at 15-20...great move. Ngata at 8? reach.

[L.A. Playa]

Henderson had 70 tackles this year 2nd most of any DT in the NFL 3 sack and 7 Pass Defenses

If thats not dominant I dont know what is

Seymour plays in the 3-4 and everyone who knows anything about that style of defense knows that the ends in the 3-4 are Defensive Tackles

I named 3 dominant DT's drafted in the past 5 years in the top ten.

Just check your facts before ya pull a comment out ya ass, I really dont like the thought of drafting Ngata at # 8 but I am not gonna pull something out my ass to back taht up

Facts are in recent history dominant DT's are picked in the top 10 or close to it as Pro Bowler Marcus Stroud selected # 13 in 2001 or Pro Bowler Tommie Harris at #14 in 2004

Just say you dont like the idea of the pick but dont come out with bull**** that aint the truth

[X-Era]

2001 Richard Seymour #6
2002 John Henderson #9
2003 Kevin Williams #9

Dominant DT's taken in the top 10 in the past 5 years

BTW, the best DT on Jax is Stroud, not Henderson, Stroud was taken at 13.

2002- Peppers at 4, and in the same draft Ryan Sims DT at 6 and then Henderson at 9, when Stroud is the best DT on Jax. Hmmm who were the good players there, who made the impact?

2003- Robertson at 4, Sullivan at 6, Williams at 9, DE Terrell Suggs at 10. Hmmmmm, who were the good players there??? Who made the impact?

[X-Era]

Henderson had 70 tackles this year 2nd most of any DT in the NFL 3 sack and 7 Pass Defenses

If thats not dominant I dont know what is

Seymour plays in the 3-4 and everyone who knows anything about that style of defense knows that the ends in the 3-4 are Defensive Tackles

I named 3 dominant DT's drafted in the past 5 years in the top ten.

Just check your facts before ya pull a comment out ya ass, I really dont like the thought of drafting Ngata at # 8 but I am not gonna pull something out my ass to back taht up

Facts are in recent history dominant DT's are picked in the top 10 or close to it as Pro Bowler Marcus Stroud selected # 13 in 2001 or Pro Bowler Tommie Harris at #14 in 2004

Just say you dont like the idea of the pick but dont come out with bull**** that aint the truth

By the way, as far as pulling somethin out of ya ass, looks like you strategically picked whatever facts suited your arguement.

[L.A. Playa]

oh ya pro bowlers and leaders in tackles are random facts, Stroud and Henderson are considered the best DT duo in the leasue you tell me tha tyou wouldnt take Henderson in a heartbeat to be on the Bills DL and you are liar

[dolphinssuck]

IMO Id love to see us get Brickshaw and if not M. Williams either of these 2 would be big. I agree Henderson would be a very good pick up as well on the DL.

[Bmax]

A quick lesson on the draft ...............

1. it's January
2. The bills board is their board .. May be a lot different than anybody elses including Mel kiper...
3. WHEN YOUR 6-4-335- AND RUN A 4-9 40.. YOUR A TOP TEN PICK.
4. One bowl game don't make or break your draft spot .. Especially when your were injured during the game..

Oh by the way kiper has him at 11 so how's is that a reach at 8 ?...It would be alot different if he was slotted at 25... or a 2nd round guy..


Go Bills..

Bmax

[L.A. Playa]

Hey I will let the guys who are paid to scout, watch film and interview these guys make what they feel is the best decision for the team. Personally I would like Super Mario but he will be gone by # 8 so why not take Ngata he should be a force in the middle for years and is a definite immediate need on this team, there is no S or OL really at that pick that would be that good and what I would think are immediate needs that would be a wise pick there.

[Tatonka]

tommy harris played pretty damn well.. i would love t have him about now.. he was top 10 for sure in the draft.

[EDS]

Kiper and many others agree that Ngata has been dropping. He is a reach at 8 as of now.

Kiwi hasnt done well this week either but would be the more likey pick at 8. Its a matter of impact versus draft position.

I cant think of a single DT picked in the top 10 in the past 5 years that stands out as dominant.

Its just not worthy fo a pick that high.

Now, we have an entirely new staff, new front office, and possibly new schemes. Not a signle player on this squad was drafted by our decision makers. Meaning, there is no love loss for any of them right now. Fan favorites, high picks from the previous regime, they all get ZERO rep points from our current staff.

That may mean a shake up at some of our positions thought to be filled. McGahee? Schobel? Fletcher? they have a clean slate.

If RB Williams, DE Williams, or Hawk falls to 8, I could see us going that route pretty easily.

I fully anticipate a draft based on best available over need this year. If a need player turns out to be the best available thats a bonus, but with the draft shaping up right now, I wouldnt look for EITHER a DT or OT until at least round 2.

Again, Jauron and company have ZERO to lose by heading in a different direction at ANY of our positions.

Deangelo Williams at 8? yeah and trade McGahee. Super Mario or Kiwi at 8? hell ya. AJ Hawk? Hell ya. Jimmy Williams, Mike Huff? Hell ya.

Ngata, Winston, Scott, or Wright Its VERY unlikely.


I am going to let the professionals decide who is and who isn't a reach at 8. You sir, are no expert.

[X-Era]

I am going to let the professionals decide who is and who isn't a reach at 8. You sir, are no expert.

And you ma'am are no proifessional critic either.

[X-Era]

oh ya pro bowlers and leaders in tackles are random facts, Stroud and Henderson are considered the best DT duo in the leasue you tell me tha tyou wouldnt take Henderson in a heartbeat to be on the Bills DL and you are liar

So your arguement for drafting a guy who many feel is out of the top 10 at 8, is a DT who has proven in the NFL he can play? What happened to the other half dozen I mentioned that have done less but were drafted in the top 10?

Ummm, clearly, it is YOU who doesnt know what the phrase, "its all a crap shoot" is about!

If your taking your chances on someone, take it on a player who makes the biggest impact day one. A league leading DT in tackles or a league leading DE in sacks or a league leading RB in yards, HMMMMM Thats an easy one!

[X-Era]

A quick lesson on the draft ...............

1. it's January
2. The bills board is their board .. May be a lot different than anybody elses including Mel kiper...
3. WHEN YOUR 6-4-335- AND RUN A 4-9 40.. YOUR A TOP TEN PICK.
4. One bowl game don't make or break your draft spot .. Especially when your were injured during the game..

Oh by the way kiper has him at 11 so how's is that a reach at 8 ?...It would be alot different if he was slotted at 25... or a 2nd round guy..


Go Bills..

Bmax

Interesting lesson, only Ill stick to stuff thats accredited.

You assumed I didnt want the guy at all, I never said that. What I said was I didnt want him AS OF NOW at 8.

Deangelo Williams, AJ Hawk, Super Mario, Kiwi, Jimmy Williams, even Mike Huff ALL should go BEFORE Ngata. Several will be at our pick, so I cant see taking Ngata just because he fills a need.

Besides, It IS still possible for D'Brick to drop and if he does, I see us taking him.

[L.A. Playa]

Every pick is a crap shoot the Bills need to fill holes not take luxury picks, the only DE worth taking at 8 with be Mario WIlliams and if he is there they should take him, if the Bills take a RB at 8 they are out of their minds and saying just trade McGahee easier said than done , where are you gonna trade him too and what immediate help are you gonna get for him in 2006. I am not completely sold on Ngata, but if he is ther eand Mario Williams is gone he is a no brainer and a player that is rated in Mel Kipers board at 11 being picked at 8 is not a reach especially if you are filling a need.

There are no experst here because there is no one here that has access to each player their medical history and their full game tape and able to witness their practice techniques and attitude.

Mel Kiper is a good source but his opinion on a player is just that his opinion. Hopefully the Bills select the right player for teh team at 8 that fits the TEam concept and will be successful regardless of position

[That Guy]

At least to me, Kiwi hasn't looked good at all (granted, taking probably half of his reps against Brick) this week, and overall doesn't seem like a very good pick. He made almost all of his sacks last year picking on bad teams with poor offensive lines... overall an inconsistent pass rusher.

[X-Era]

Every pick is a crap shoot the Bills need to fill holes not take luxury picks, the only DE worth taking at 8 with be Mario WIlliams and if he is there they should take him, if the Bills take a RB at 8 they are out of their minds and saying just trade McGahee easier said than done , where are you gonna trade him too and what immediate help are you gonna get for him in 2006. I am not completely sold on Ngata, but if he is ther eand Mario Williams is gone he is a no brainer and a player that is rated in Mel Kipers board at 11 being picked at 8 is not a reach especially if you are filling a need.

There are no experst here because there is no one here that has access to each player their medical history and their full game tape and able to witness their practice techniques and attitude.

Mel Kiper is a good source but his opinion on a player is just that his opinion. Hopefully the Bills select the right player for teh team at 8 that fits the TEam concept and will be successful regardless of position

Amen. My only hope is to add a player at 8 who is one hell of a player at their position when they play in the NFL.

I hope to land a bigtime player regardless of position. I want to use such a high pick successfully and reap the rewards for many many years to come.

The good news is, there looks to be alot of players who could make that type of mark at our 8 pick.

Its all good, we will have to wait and see.

If the Bills land Bates, Im gonna be one happy camper and be bigtime ready for the next season, GO BILLS!!!!!!

[Stewie]

Kiper and many others agree that Ngata has been dropping. He is a reach at 8 as of now.

Kiwi hasnt done well this week either but would be the more likey pick at 8. Its a matter of impact versus draft position.

I cant think of a single DT picked in the top 10 in the past 5 years that stands out as dominant.



Having a "reach" at 8 doesn't matter as long as we dont have any other picks in the first round. If he's a first round talent, and we need that position, we should take him.

People said the same thing about Levi Jones at LT by the bengals. They were ripped solidly for that pick. No one rips Levi Jones anymore.

[Bmax]

This ain't rocket science fellas...if a guy can run and taclke better than another guy you draft him...

Spoken like a true draft expert ....Dwight Adams..HE PLAYS LIKE HIS HAIR IS ON FIRE....HIS COMMENT ABOUT ANTOINE WINFIELD

BMAX
BILLS FAN SINCE 1969
DRAFTNIK SINCE 1973
I STARTED YOUNG.....

Go Bills

[Tatonka]

great point about levi jones, paulb...

i can totally remember thinking "stupid bengals.. what an awful pick.. "

i would love to have levi jones now.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

I just want to point out a couple of things from Marv's book about drafting when he was with KC:

"They were woefully weak on defense and it was easy for me to see why. Going all the way back to 1970, the Chiefs had used their first round pick in the draft for a defensive player just one time. Even here they had fared poorly. Of the seven offensive players that they had chosen with those first selections, only one still remained on the roster. He was a reserve lineman who we did not retain after my first season as coach of the team."....

"'Do you think we can make it to the Super Bowl with Mike Livingston [the Chiefs veteran signal-caller] as our quarterback?"

I didn't have to ponder long in order to come up with an answer.

"Until we cure our problems on defense, Jack, neither Mike Livingston or any other quarterback can lead this team to the Super Bowl," I responded."....

"In the 1978 draft, we had the second pick in the first round. Ou8r scouting department had designated running back Earl Campbell as the top player amongst that year's prospects. Ranked number two was a six-foot, seven-inch, 260 pound defensive end from the University of Kentucky named Art Still."....

"On draft day, Jack was still pushing for a quarterback. I persisted, however, and we chose Art. In the second round we picked up another defensive lineman, Sylvester Hicks, and in the third round we selected a linebacker, Gary Spani. Art was an All-Pro player for the Chiefs on several occasions. Several years later when I was coaching in Buffalo, we acquired him in a trade, and he help(ed) propel the Bills to their first division title in many years. Sylvester was also a valuable addition to our defense. Gary won a starting position as a rookie, and he continued to be an outstanding leader and the Chiefs best linebacker for many years."

Later, with the Bills, one of the first things that Levy did was work to bring in players to shore up the defense. It is also interesting to note that, when coaching both in KC and Buffalo, Levy had dominant pass-rushing defensive ends on his teams.

What I get from this is that Marv will look to see what the team's greatest weaknesses are and try to address them first. With the Bills, he has two problems: the offensive line and the defensive line. However, Marv also seems to have a preference for defense first over offense.

As I see it, based on this and the fact that the draft is deep at offensive line, unless D'Brickashaw Ferguson falls to the Bills at # 8, I would expect the Bills to go defense with their first pick. A lot will depend on who the DC is and what scheme the team is going to employ, whether the team plans to re-sign Nate Clements and who is left on the board when the Bills pick and how the Bills have them ranked. Right now all of the projections that I have seen show both Williamses and AJ Hawk going before the # 8 pick. With Kiwi having a rough time at the Senior Bowl, that would leave the choice between Ngata, Huff, and an offensive tackle. Despite the age of the Bills' safeties and potential loss of Clements, I think the odds are that Marv will want to shore up the run defense before addressing the Bills other weaknesses on defense.

Of course, that's just a guess at this point, based on Marv's past history and approach to the game as laid out in his book. Still, I think that this might give Bills fans some perspective on how the Bills may well approach the draft.

My personal preference would be for the Bills to trade down with Denver for both of their first round picks, but, if they can't do that, I can see them looking to shore up their biggest weaknesses in the following way:

D.Ferguson--not likely to be there, but if he is the Bills have to take him.
M.Williams--won't help the run D, but will give the team a top pass-rusher
J.Williams--not likely to be there and won't be a factor if Clements stays
H.Ngata--Fills a huge need and should be on the board
AJ Hawk--only needed if Spikes can't return to form
M.Huff--Fills a need, but not as big a need as Ngata

I see Justice, Winston and McNeill as being much bigger reaches than Ngata at # 8, especially when Colledge, Trueblood, etc. should be available when the Bills pick in Round 2. And, the Bills really don't need to take a second feature back here when they have so many other needs (see Marv's quote about QB when he was in KC).

[vicmantak]

If Mr. Marv Levy announce that he will pick Jay Cutler if he's available... I'm pretty sure that our chances to trade down would increase EXPONENTIALLY!

I can see teams like Detroit, Arizona, Cleveland, Baltimore or inclusive our archrival Miami doing whatever it takes to get this playmaker!

Hopefully it would be Detroit!

[X-Era]

I just want to point out a couple of things from Marv's book about drafting when he was with KC:

"They were woefully weak on defense and it was easy for me to see why. Going all the way back to 1970, the Chiefs had used their first round pick in the draft for a defensive player just one time. Even here they had fared poorly. Of the seven offensive players that they had chosen with those first selections, only one still remained on the roster. He was a reserve lineman who we did not retain after my first season as coach of the team."....

"'Do you think we can make it to the Super Bowl with Mike Livingston [the Chiefs veteran signal-caller] as our quarterback?"

I didn't have to ponder long in order to come up with an answer.

"Until we cure our problems on defense, Jack, neither Mike Livingston or any other quarterback can lead this team to the Super Bowl," I responded."....

"In the 1978 draft, we had the second pick in the first round. Ou8r scouting department had designated running back Earl Campbell as the top player amongst that year's prospects. Ranked number two was a six-foot, seven-inch, 260 pound defensive end from the University of Kentucky named Art Still."....

"On draft day, Jack was still pushing for a quarterback. I persisted, however, and we chose Art. In the second round we picked up another defensive lineman, Sylvester Hicks, and in the third round we selected a linebacker, Gary Spani. Art was an All-Pro player for the Chiefs on several occasions. Several years later when I was coaching in Buffalo, we acquired him in a trade, and he help(ed) propel the Bills to their first division title in many years. Sylvester was also a valuable addition to our defense. Gary won a starting position as a rookie, and he continued to be an outstanding leader and the Chiefs best linebacker for many years."

Later, with the Bills, one of the first things that Levy did was work to bring in players to shore up the defense. It is also interesting to note that, when coaching both in KC and Buffalo, Levy had dominant pass-rushing defensive ends on his teams.

What I get from this is that Marv will look to see what the team's greatest weaknesses are and try to address them first. With the Bills, he has two problems: the offensive line and the defensive line. However, Marv also seems to have a preference for defense first over offense.

As I see it, based on this and the fact that the draft is deep at offensive line, unless D'Brickashaw Ferguson falls to the Bills at # 8, I would expect the Bills to go defense with their first pick. A lot will depend on who the DC is and what scheme the team is going to employ, whether the team plans to re-sign Nate Clements and who is left on the board when the Bills pick and how the Bills have them ranked. Right now all of the projections that I have seen show both Williamses and AJ Hawk going before the # 8 pick. With Kiwi having a rough time at the Senior Bowl, that would leave the choice between Ngata, Huff, and an offensive tackle. Despite the age of the Bills' safeties and potential loss of Clements, I think the odds are that Marv will want to shore up the run defense before addressing the Bills other weaknesses on defense.

Of course, that's just a guess at this point, based on Marv's past history and approach to the game as laid out in his book. Still, I think that this might give Bills fans some perspective on how the Bills may well approach the draft.

My personal preference would be for the Bills to trade down with Denver for both of their first round picks, but, if they can't do that, I can see them looking to shore up their biggest weaknesses in the following way:

D.Ferguson--not likely to be there, but if he is the Bills have to take him.
M.Williams--won't help the run D, but will give the team a top pass-rusher
J.Williams--not likely to be there and won't be a factor if Clements stays
H.Ngata--Fills a huge need and should be on the board
AJ Hawk--only needed if Spikes can't return to form
M.Huff--Fills a need, but not as big a need as Ngata

I see Justice, Winston and McNeill as being much bigger reaches than Ngata at # 8, especially when Colledge, Trueblood, etc. should be available when the Bills pick in Round 2. And, the Bills really don't need to take a second feature back here when they have so many other needs (see Marv's quote about QB when he was in KC).

Excellent insight!!!

I see the strength of the draft for both DT and OT being late round 1 to early round 3.

If Clements leaves which is likely, No head coach in the world wouldnt want a shutdown corner. Levy can easily talk about Kerner, Irvin, even Thomas Smith (as examples of what you lose when you dont have a good one) to backup any discussions about what a shutdown corner could mean to a struggling defense. Dont even give me the Williams and Huff are S arguement, both Mayock and Kiper believe BOTH can and should play CB in the NFL.

I honestly dont get it guys. Many here act as if there is only one round in the whole draft. We have 4 picks on day one. We DO NOT need to draft a DT in the 1st, we can get one at several spots later and still get one hell of a player. Many of you would argue against drafting a QB in round 1 (when we didnt have JP), saying you can get one later, but then from the other side of your mouth you argue we MUST draft a DT in round one. Its hypocritical.

Every team in the league should do one thing, take the best player available at their pick. The Bills had a shot at William Joseph DT, and took McGahee instead even though they had Henry. We ended up with a RB who reached 2000 yards faster than any other Bill at RB, AND traded Henry for a 3rd rounder. Where is DT William Joseph?

You DONT go into the draft saying you HAVE to have such and so, its a sure fire way to reach, and miss out on players who on paper could mean more to your franchise.