History Shows Ngata At Eight Too Risky

[patmoran2006]

History Shows Ngata At Eight Is Too Risky (http://blogs.foxsports.com/patmoran2006/2006/02/21/History_Shows_Ngata_At_Eight_Is_Too_Risky)


What do you think?

[mysticsoto]

History Shows Ngata At Eight Is Too Risky (http://blogs.foxsports.com/patmoran2006/2006/02/21/History_Shows_Ngata_At_Eight_Is_Too_Risky)


What do you think?

I pretty much agree with everything. Except that I take Michael Huff before I take Hawk. Milloy is getting old and so is Vincent. Both Safeties will require upgrading sooner or later and have a top prospect could enhance our cover 2 tremendously. Hawk is more of a "nice have", but for us, safety is becoming more of a need than a "nice have".

[ICE74129]

I say history is full of SH@#. History showed a 2nd year QB can't win the Superbowl. Guess what?

Look Ngata is a different kid. Not some punk from Tha U that thinks he is entitled to anything. He has lost both parents, and understands what he needs to do. he has heart, desire and is a good kid with character.

[eyedog]

A safety is a "nice have". Like a t-end and wide receiver.

This team needs to draft big. When they run the ball down your throat and you can't run or throw the ball because there is no blocking, you don't draft a safety at #8. In the 3rd or 4th rd if there is a good safety there then thats different.

[patmoran2006]

Never suggested not taking care of D Line.. I suggested might be better suited to do that through FA in the article.

[EDS]

I think it is too early to say Ngata is a reach. Have to wait until he works out. He could be a Jerome Brown type of difference maker or he could be a bust. Given the teams limited amount of cap space I would be inclined to address the most immediate needs in the draft - possibly Ngata in round one and a guard in round two.

My preference though would be to trade down, but I realize that is not likely to happen.

[mysticsoto]

A safety is a "nice have". Like a t-end and wide receiver.

This team needs to draft big. When they run the ball down your throat and you can't run or throw the ball because there is no blocking, you don't draft a safety at #8. In the 3rd or 4th rd if there is a good safety there then thats different.

I don't know...a good safety can have a big impact on defense. Roy Williams was taken at #8 by Dallas a few years back. And he's been phenomenol on their defense!

A safety is not my 1st choice for our 1st pick, but I'm saying if everybody else is gone, it's a possibility if we can't trade down.

Of course, alot depends on what we do and who we are able to get in FA also...

[LifetimeBillsFan]

I think sometimes you get caught up a bit too much on the stats that these players have without taking into consideration their impact on what they allow the rest of the defense to do or the way that they fit into the defensive system that a team is running--if I have argument with your analysis it is that you base your judgement of how good a player is more on his numbers than on his value to the team. This isn't fantasy football where numbers determine how valuable a player is, but the NFL where sometimes a player is asked to sacrifice himself and his stats so that someone else can make the plays and be the star and the whole team is better. I would argue that some of the defensive tackles that you cited have made larger contributions to their teams than you give them credit for (perhaps not as much as they have been paid to contribute, but more than they get credit for--OK?).

I would also argue that too much weight is being placed on the fact that this is the # 8 pick--would you object as much if the Bills were to select Ngata with the # 11 or # 12 pick? If you wouldn't, then you are basing your analysis not so much on what the team needs or the value that the player may have to the team, but on the supposed value of the draft pick itself. And, here again, I must caution that this is not fantasy football or mock football heaven where each draft spot has been assigned a numerical value and a team is considered to have blown its pick if it surrenders a couple of "value points" with its selection--this is the NFL where teams have real needs and there are many more variables that come into play. A fan can look at a scouting service's rankings at a particular position and decide that, since there are six or eight highly-thought of prospects at a given position, their team can afford to pass on a guy at the top of that list because they can always get another guy who is nearly as well-thought of later on. But, that does not take into account a number of factors that the team must take into consideration: for example, of those 6-8 guys getting high grades from the scouting service, there may only be three of those players who the coaches feel will fit in the system that they are going to use or who have the specific talents that they are looking for; and, then, of those three, there may be concerns about one of the player's work habits or whether the drop-off from the guy that the team has rated highest to the guy next on their list is greater than the drop-off that they see at another position that they have targeted, etc. And, then, the team must also consider whether it is likely that their second or third option will still be available when their next pick comes around (for example: while Mel Kiper and a lot of other people were screaming that the Bills would and, then, should have used their 1st Round pick on Chris Kelsay instead of Willis McGahee, T.Donohoe had figured out that, given the fact that all of the teams that needed DEs had already filled their need at that position earlier in the draft, it was very likely that Kelsay would still be on the board when the Bills made their pick in the next round, so it was not imperitive for the Bills to use that pick on Kelsay at that point since they could get him later--you can argue about whether the pick should have been used on McGahee or some other player, but knowing that he could still get Kelsay without having to take him at that stage allowed the team the freedom to take someone else with that pick--but, that can work both ways: a team may figure that, if it leaves a certain player on the board, they could lose a shot at getting any of the players that they think will be able to fit the need they are looking to fill).

In the case of the players that you listed as alternatives to Ngata, several of them are very different types of players who may or may not fit the system that M.Levy and D.Jauron intend to have their defensive line play. Ngata is 340 lbs., Wroten weighs less than 300 lbs. Just on that basis alone, it can be expected that each will be better than the other at different things. Which one fits the system best? How much of a drop-off is there likely to be between the players on your list who fit the system? How many other teams are likely to be looking for those same qualities and how many are likely to draft these players and in what spots in the draft? Which of these players will work his butt off, do what the coaches want him to do and, perhaps even sacrifice stardom in order to win and which are likely to quit, tune out the coaches or prefer to spend time with their "posse"? Do you know the answers to all of these questions? I know I don't--I only know what I have seen of these players watching maybe a half dozen or so games that they played in and what I have read about them from a variety of scouting reports. But, before the Bills decide who they are going to select with their pick, they MUST know as many answers to these questions as possible. That's why they have had scouts out watching these guys practice and play, talking to their coaches and people who know them. That's why they are going to run them through The Combine and college pro days. That's why they have had guys looking at and breaking down film of each of these players for months now. They almost certainly will have seen things we don't see. Also, they know what they are looking for in a player--we don't because they're not going to tell us! There are things that go on behind the scenes that we will never know about (Mel Kiper is a guy who purports to know because he works at it full time, year round, but I'd love to tie Mel up to a chair and make him watch highlights of every time he's been dead-wrong about a player or team!).

Now, I'm not saying that Ngata should be the guy that the Bills pick or that the Bills would be better or worse off by taking him or not. I honestly don't know. But, I do know that the Bills, as a team, have certain needs that they are probably going to have to try to fill in this draft (until draft day, we won't really know for certain, because free agency could solve some of those problems, but it is unlikely that it will solve all of them) and that Ngata is a guy who looks like he has the potential to fill one of the biggest ones. I like what little I've seen of Ngata and really like what the scouting services have said about him. But, do the Bills feel the same way? Do they see him fitting into their system? I don't know. (And, it's difficult to say because, as violent as it is, there are a lot of subtleties to offensive and defensive line play that are hard to judge from just watching a game at real speed, even in the stadium). I am basing my assessment of Ngata on what the Bills' needs are and on whether he appears to fill them. If they decide that he can fill their need at DT and is more likely to do so than the guys that they figure will be still available in the second round, then they have to consider taking him--and it doesn't matter what the number of the pick is (# 8, # 11 or even # 32) because the value is not in the pick, but in the player and what he can do for the club, in their estimation, as opposed to the alternatives that they see being available.

While I agree that all of the players that you have listed could also help fill some of the Bills' glaring needs, from my own analysis, I do not necessarily agree that all of them will bring as much value to the team at that spot as Ngata might. For example, Michael Huff would certainly be a great addition to the Bills, but I'm not sure that there would be as much of a drop-off if they were to take one of the safeties, like Blue from Georgia (there are others that I like even better than him, but I don't want to take the time to get out my lists and look them up right now) that is likely to be available in Round 3 as there would be at the DT position or on the offensive line after the second round--its a question of how much would they have to give up at one position to get a player like Huff, as opposed to an alternative, at another. Of course, there are some "no-brainers": D'Brickashaw Ferguson is a guy who is likely to be a such a significant up-grade at a position of need that they cannot pass him up. Guys like AJ Hawk and Mario Williams, on the other hand, are much more difficult calls because, for all of their talent, they may not fill as much of a need and the question is whether what the Bills would gain from taking either of them would out-weigh what they would likely lose from passing over a player who has the potential to fill a greater need that the team would have to try to fill later with someone that they judge to be a lesser alternative. In Hawk's case, I definitely think that it depends on the progress of T.Spikes' recovery and what the doctors are telling them about his chances of regaining his old form and speed, odds of re-injuring himself, etc.--if Spikes will be back to close to his old form, the Bills might very well pass on Hawk. Because Mario Williams is such a physical specimen who brings so much to his position and because both D.Jauron and M.Levy know how valuable a top-flight pass-rusher can be, he's a guy that I could see the Bills possibly taking even though his is not a position of particular need for the team (everyone seems to be ignoring that A.Schobel has continued to improve and had 12 sacks last season, while C.Kelsay is still just entering his third season--DE is not nearly the need position that DT, O-line, the safeties, WR and even SLB are).

I agree with your assessment that Cutler will be a key to the Bills' draft and that, if he is selected before the Bills are on the board, the Bills will have a couple of good players to choose from who would really help them. Ngata plus and one of those four players that you mention all look like guys who could help make the team better (in Hawk's case, if Spikes' injury slows him down at all or he will be a re-injury risk). Which one would be the best choice and help the team the most, however, is still very debatable. We know that each will bring something to the table and whichever one the Bills take, the result will be that they will have to someone who is one of their lesser alternatives at a position of need later in the draft. But, at some point, we have to trust that, with so much more information available to them, the Bills' brain-trust in this draft will have a pretty good idea of who they think will bring the team the most value with their pick in the first round. What gives that pick value is not that it is the # 8 pick in the draft, but the fact that being the eight pick, they will have some potentially better players to choose from, some of whom they may feel will be better able to fill one of their needs than the players who will be available later on.

I like your list of potential free agents who the Bills should be looking at to fill their need at DT. While I may quibble a little about how they should be ranked--not much, though--I do think that there should be a couple on that list that should fit whatever their system is going to be (even though we know somewhat what their defensive scheme is going to be, there can be a fair amount of variation in the specifics of the line play) and that they should target. My concern--and a problem that I always have when talking about signing free agents--is that there is never any guarantee that a team will be able to sign the free agents that they target because, as always when dealing with individuals, there are multiple variables involved that sometimes can be greater than simply money. For that reason, I would consider it very unwise for a team (and also for its fans) to base their draft strategy on signing specific free agents until those free agents have signed a contract with the team. So, for that reason, I will continue to consider DT perhaps the Bills' most glaring single position of need until such time as they have signed one or two free agents to fill that position. In my view, the Bills need to add two DTs this off-season to go with T.Anderson and S.Adams if they are going to be a good run-stopping defense. Given the Bills' salary cap situation and the vagaries of free agency, with other teams competing to sign some of the players the Bills may target, I rather doubt that they would be able to sign more than one of the free agents that you have listed--I would be delighted if they could sign two, but I seriously doubt they will be able to. In that event, I would still have to consider DT a position of need going into the draft (even more so if the Bills are not able to sign one of the free agents that you mentioned!). How much of a need it will be in relation to the other positions that the team needs to upgrade is something that the team's management will have to determine based on who they are able to sign and who they feel they might be able to pick up as a free agent later on after the draft. While the team may decide, based on its situation on draft day, that it can afford to pass on Ngata and pick one of the other players that you mentioned--or even someone else who is projected to go a little lower in the first round--I don't think that, if they like him and see him as a fit for the team, they will discount Ngata unless the have already done something to upgrade the DT position before the draft. Unless Ferguson slips down to them, I think they will have to and will continue to give Ngata serious consideration as their pick otherwise.

With the way that the draft is shaping up right now, barring a trade by one of the teams ahead of them, it is looking like the Bills will get a good player who should be able to help the team with their pick, be it Ferguson, Mario Williams, Hawk, Huff or Ngata.

[The last buffalo fan]

I say history is full of SH@#. History showed a 2nd year QB can't win the Superbowl. Guess what?

Look Ngata is a different kid. Not some punk from Tha U that thinks he is entitled to anything. He has lost both parents, and understands what he needs to do. he has heart, desire and is a good kid with character.

:up: That's what I'm looking for!!!

[LifetimeBillsFan]

I don't know...a good safety can have a big impact on defense. Roy Williams was taken at #8 by Dallas a few years back. And he's been phenomenol on their defense!

A safety is not my 1st choice for our 1st pick, but I'm saying if everybody else is gone, it's a possibility if we can't trade down.

Of course, alot depends on what we do and who we are able to get in FA also...

I'm sorry, but I have to disagree with you on this one, mystic, especially about R.Williams.

If you look at Dallas's pass defense not last year, but the year before when they had a losing record, it was not very good. In fact, their defense was not very good that season, even with Roy Williams. This year, when Williams had a solid defense around him, he was able to shine and do a lot more. It was pretty much the same kind of situation for S.Taylor(?), the safety in Washington--now that he has a good D around him he is a monster, but he wasn't nearly as effective before that--good, but not a game-changer.

A top safety can help make a good defense great, but can't really make a mediocre defense good. A great LB, shutdown CB, dominant DT or pass-rushing DE can make a mediocre defense very good, depending on the defensive system. There is no question in my mind that the Bills are going to have to replace both of their safeties in order to become a top-flight defense again, but when a team, like the Bills, can't stop the run at the line of scrimmage or open holes for its running game, a top-flight safety is really a luxury. Right now, the Bills need to focus on the guys who are in the trenches on both sides of the ball and, in this draft, they should be able to get someone who will be a more significant upgrade for them there than Huff would be over one of the safeties that they could get in the third round of this draft, like Blue from Georgia (there are actually about 3 guys who should be there then who have slightly different skill sets, that should be pretty good players who are not all that great of a drop-off from Huff, depending on what you are looking for--Blue is a big-hitter not as good in coverage, there are a couple of others who are better in coverage but not as big hitters). I would prefer that they take one of those guys and groom him for a year, while it still makes sense to keep Milloy and Vincent, rather than pass up the chance to make a major upgrade at a position of glaring need.

[EDS]

My thinking is that it is easier to get a good safety later in the draft then it is to get a good defensive tackle or offensive lineman. If Ngata shows he is remotely worthy of the 8th pick I think the Bills need to strongly consider him. Then get a guard in round two (there should be 2-3 good guard/centers to choose from). If that happens then the teams two biggest needs are addressed and it makes everything else easier. The Bills have two thirds and can likely get a good safety with one of those picks. The Bills may also get a compensatory pick this year because of the lose of Jennings and Williams.

[Jan Reimers]

The whole draft is a crap shoot. You can point to any number of monumental high 1st round busts at every position. You can point to undrafted free agents becoming All Pro at every position.

I believe you analyze each specific player in this draft as well and as carefully as you can, not the general history or broad statistical success rate of players by position.

[TigerJ]

Do a similar study on linebackers, safeties, defensive ends, and offensive tackles taken in the top 8 and show me the results. Then I'll consider the validity of your claims.

[Crisis]

Michael Huff could be our Ed Reed.

I hope we grab him.

[BuffaloJayhawk]

Do a similar study on linebackers, safeties, defensive ends, and offensive tackles taken in the top 8 and show me the results. Then I'll consider the validity of your claims.


PWNED.

[Tatonka]

good article.. i agree.

lifetime.. can i get the cliff notes on your first post.. i wanted to read it but i went blind. :sad:

[gr8slayer]

I really dont want to draft an OL or a DL that early. Fat guys who can push people around are not that hard to find late in the draft. Hell, look at SD. I would rather use it on a big play Safety like Huff, or a ballhawk like Hawk.

The only linemen we should consider drafting is D'Brick, he is the exception.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

good article.. i agree.

lifetime.. can i get the cliff notes on your first post.. i wanted to read it but i went blind. :sad:

Sure, anything for you, Tatonka!

Here's the quick version:
1.) I think Pat, like a lot of fans, puts too much emphasis on numbers at a position where numbers don't always show the impact the player has

2.) I also think that a lot of people put undue emphasis on the value of the pick rather than the player and his potential to fill a team's need. If a team thinks the player that they take will fill a big need for them, he's worth taking regardless of where the pick is or whether the guy is considered to be "worth the pick".

3.) Many fans base their ideas on who their team should draft with what pick based solely on scouting service rankings, but those rankings don't take into account many factors that the team must take into account. Teams have a lot of information that they use to base their decisions on that are not available to fans and even draft analysts, like Mel Kiper.

4.) When choosing between different players that a team likes, the team must consider how taking a particular player over another will impact their ability to fill other needs later in the draft with players who fit their system--the drop-off in value at one position is likely to be greater than at another and that can seriously influence who they will decide to take with a given pick.

5.) Ngata looks like a guy who might fill the Bills' need at DT, but how highly the Bills will rate him depends on a lot of factors that we are not privy to, including whether he fits their system.

6.) While all of the guys Pat listed as better options than Ngata look like good players, Ferguson is the only one who is clearly a better option because he also would help address a serious need. The other guys look like they could help, but whether they can help more than Ngata is a close call. I list my thoughts on each individual player--which are very different from Pat's.

7.) I agree with Pat about Cutler being the key to how the draft will shape up for the Bills and what kind of options they may have with their pick at # 8.

8.) I also like Pat's list of potential FA DTs and think that several may fit whatever D-line system the Bills use. I also agree that the Bills should aggressively pursue them.

9.) I believe that the Bills will have to bring two new DTs who can play this season to camp if they are going to improve their run defense. However, I do not believe that the Bills will be able to get more than one in free agency and will have to draft one high in this year's draft--probably in the first or second round.

10.) I think that fans are very unrealistic in their thinking about signing free agents--it is not as easy as they think because there are a lot more things that factor into it than just money. I think NFL teams do--and fans should--take a very conservative view of free agency and not count on being able to sign any particular player(s) to fill the team's needs until that player has signed a contract with them. For that reason, I believe that the Bills will--and their fans should--continue to consider DT a position that they must address in the draft and, as a result, will give it a high priority, even if they decide not to draft Ngata. But, I do think this will increase the chances that they will consider taking Ngata most of the other players that Pat mentioned as alternatives.

11.) Whether the Bills take Ngata or not, the way the draft is shaping up right now, unless there is a major trade, it looks like the Bills should be able to have their choice of a couple of players who look like they could really help the team a lot.

How's that Tatonka, short enough for you?

I really had intended my original post to answer Pat's question about his article, moreso than in response to the discussion, which was why it was so detailed. I know it was hard to read, but it's hard to make that many points in a post and support them with some evidence without it being rather long. Still, while I don't always agree with him, I have so much respect for the time and effort that Pat puts into everything that he writes that I felt that he deserved a serious, reasoned response to his request for feedback on his article even if it was rather lengthy. (I wish that sometimes people would respond to my articles with some detailed feedback, even if they don't agree with me--I think it would help expand my thinking and help me write better articles.)

[ddaryl]

I'll judge Ngata after the combine, and see where he ends up after that.

We need a top notch S to groom ASAP, so Huff at #8 is a real possibility, as is Hawke, because Spikes might never recover, and Posey is replaceable, and our starting LB corp is getting old.

[Bmax]

History also shows that you can't rate a guy until he at least works out at the combine.

Life i agree.. it does all depend on where they rate the guy on their board.

JUST MAYBE THEY LIKE BUNKLEY BETTER BECAUSE HE FITS THEIR SYSTEM.

I love the guy.. Oh and pat he won't be around in round 2 ... Wroten will not be even considered by many Nfl teams It hard to invest millions in a guy who showed such poor judgement even though he was cleared of all charges.

I do remember many fans saying i was nuts for saying the bills should draft Lee Evans in rd 1 .. Hmm I wonder how he turned out ?

I know one thing history has shown bills fans that if you ignore the Offense and def line in the top round you will continue to miss the playoffs...


Bmax

[Marvelous]

I beg all Ngata lovers to see the big picture. #8 is to early to draft a NT. His contract will be huge for a rookie at a position that commands big money... Lets get our DT through free agency and keep Tim Anderson as depth. Or draft a NT with another day 1 pick....

[vicmantak]

Sure, anything for you, Tatonka!

2.) I also think that a lot of people put undue emphasis on the value of the pick rather than the player and his potential to fill a team's need. If a team thinks the player that they take will fill a big need for them, he's worth taking regardless of where the pick is or whether the guy is considered to be "worth the pick".

3.) Many fans base their ideas on who their team should draft with what pick based solely on scouting service rankings, but those rankings don't take into account many factors that the team must take into account. Teams have a lot of information that they use to base their decisions on that are not available to fans and even draft analysts, like Mel Kiper.

6.) While all of the guys Pat listed as better options than Ngata look like good players, Ferguson is the only one who is clearly a better option because he also would help address a serious need. The other guys look like they could help, but whether they can help more than Ngata is a close call. I list my thoughts on each individual player--which are very different from Pat's.

9.) I believe that the Bills will have to bring two new DTs who can play this season to camp if they are going to improve their run defense. However, I do not believe that the Bills will be able to get more than one in free agency and will have to draft one high in this year's draft--probably in the first or second round.
Lifetime,

What a nice analysis! Here's my opinion from the only points I'm not totally convinced:

2) Like many fans, sometimes I put emphasis on the value of the pick rather than the player and his potential to fill a team's need. The reason is simple: why is Houston paving the way to draft a RB when their top need is OL?
IMO I can't be totally against you but recently this Bills F.O. lacks determination at least, on the first draft pick. Our top draft pick has been always been a gamble and this is the main reason this team is a total mess.
You mentioned something important on Donahoe's skills to predict available talent on later round picks but unfortunately for us, this "skills" also killed this organization.
IMO its not which player fits better your intended game-plan. It's which game plan fits better to the talent you are surrounded. Best coaches simply "explode" the best of their best.

3) I totally agree that there are some "missing" information and it always be but... statistics don't lie and 85% of draft scouts analysis are simply accurate.

6) Agree that Ferguson is the only one who brings more than everything we want... but unfortunately not everything we top need. If I'm not wrong, Bills are in an urgent need to add strengh & power to first stop and establish the run (interior linemen).

9) I would say 2 DT depends on a deep analysis about the Sam Adams factor and the rest of the UFA that Bills have listed as depth. If I'm not wrong none can blame Bannan, Anderson, Denney or inclusive Edwards for the poor run defense performance. Sam has not been the same without Pat and it seems that Bills are clearly overpaying for a player on decline... but is there another better cost-performance option on this article list? If I'm not wrong, at least there are other 6 teams that are really hungry to stop the run as their priority too...

[Marvelous]

I keep reading oppinions about us taking Hawk @ #8. Hawk is a LB correct? Well didn't we resign Crowell and still have Posey. Posey is servicable enough that if we keep him it's not adire need. Safety, TE, guard and QB and NT/DT are all needs. So is QB. NT and TE and QB can be filled with other day 1 picks IMO... 8 just seems so high to take a nose tackle or a linebacker when we have LB depth.. Troy Vincent sucks! Every game i rewatch i see him out of position, getting burned because he can't read the WR/TE's route or he gets dragged for 4 yards by the ball carrier.. FS needs to be addresed! Milloy is a way better tackler and is a smart cover guy but he too is aging. IMO we have another decent season from him before we need a change.. Would make sense to draft a SS in the 2nd or 3rd this year.. Also,,,I guess when is you think BPA then Hawk makes sense because in 1-2 seasons we don't know who will be gone and maybe even Flether might not be our starter etc.. I just don't want a linebacker because fans,writers etc don't like Posey.. Rewatch some games and focus on Posey. You will nootice that he has a motor like Zach Thomas. Clearly not on Zachs level but non the less the dude hustles and gives 110%.. WOW! I sound like a Posey fan. Didn't know i was till now.......GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!