Analyzing Day 1 Buffalo Bills Draft Scenarios

[Dozerdog]

OK- let's Try something here-

I'm going to try and map out the Bills' four selections on day 1 of the draft.


Bills Needs-

DT- The largest single position need on the team IMHO
OL- Major needs- but the Bills do have players & personell that are flexible enough to move around the line. They will need to bolster the line though
DB- Clements tagged, but only for 1 year. Both safeties are aging.
WR- Bigger need if Moulds goes, move this down the chart if they stay
DE- We have adequate DE's- but there is room to improve
TE- Campbell is a tiny bit pricy, but If Euhus and Everett are healthy, I thoink we are OK
QB- If Losman fails again- we need a developing option under center
RB/FB- If McGahee goes down- we need a suitable workhorse back to shoulder the load. Shelton is a good FB- but is getting older
LB- If Spikes is healthy, this is our strongest unit on the team as a whole. Move this up the chart 4 positions if he isn't.



First round-

Let's see who will most likely still be on the board when the Bills select - with their top needs in mind

Haloti NGata DT- There is a 90% Chance he will be on the board when the Bills select (per Mock draft census).
Other options - Gabe Watson (late 1st round) Orien Harris, Rodrique Wright, Claude Wroten (2nd rd)

Michael Huff CB/S- There is a 70% chance he will be on the board.
Jimmy Williams CB- There is a 75% chance he will be on the board. <!-- Row 11 Column 3 -->Other options- Darnell Bing, S, USC Tye Hill, CB, Clemson, Ashton Youboty, CB, Ohio St. Ko Simpson, S, South Carolina(Round 1) Richard Marshall,CB, Fresno St.
Jason Allen, S, Tennessee, A.Cromartie, CB, Florida St, Cedric Griffin, CB, Texas
Kelly Jennings, CB, Miami (FL) Alan Zemaitis, CB, Penn St.(2nd round)


Brick Ferguson- LT Less than 5% chance
<!-- Row 6 Column 3 -->
Other Options
OT- Winston Justice, USC Jonathan Scott, Texas (Rd 1) Eric Winston, Miami (FL),Marcus McNeill, Auburn, Daryn Colledge, Boise St., Andrew Whitworth, LSU Rashad Butler, Miami (FL) (Rd 2-3)

<!-- Row 7 Column 3 -->G/C Max Jean-Gilles,G, Georgia (1st Rd) Charles Spencer, G, Pittsburgh
Taitusi Lutui, G, USC Davin Joseph, OG, Oklahoma, Nick Mangold C Ohio St. (2nd-3rd rd)

AJ Hawk- LB 5% Chance

Other Options
Chad Greenway, OLB, Iowa -DeMeco Ryans, OLB, Alabama, - Bobby Carpenter, OLB, Ohio St. - D'Qwell Jackson, ILB, Maryland (1st rd) Abdul Hodge, ILB, Iowa, Ernie Sims, OLB, Florida St. Thomas Howard, OLB, UTEP (2nd rd)

Mario Williams - DE 10% Chance

Other Options
<!-- Row 8 Column 3 -->Tamba Hali-Penn St, - Mathias Kiwanuka, Boston Coll., (1st Rd) - Manny Lawson, N.C. St. E. Dumervil, DE-LB, Louisville- Darryl Tapp, Virginia Tec (2nd Rd)

WR- No suitable top 10 picks

[Dozerdog]

Round 2

Depending on who is selected in Rd 1- here are the best oiptions available to the Bills in Rd 2

The Choices most likely to be there in Rd 2- (70% chance or better per mock draft census)

DT- Rodrique Wright, Texas,-Claude Wroten, LSU -Brodrick Bunkley, Florida St.

OL

OT- <!-- Row 6 Column 4 -->Daryn Colledge, Boise St.-Andrew Whitworth, LSU -Rashad Butler, Miami (FL) Ryan O'Callaghan, California, Jeremy Trueblood, Boston Coll.



G/C-Charles Spencer, G, Pittsburgh- Taitusi Lutui, G, USC-Davin Joseph, OG, Oklahoma, Nick Mangold Ohio St

DBs-

CB/S - Richard Marshall,CB, Fresno St. -Jason Allen, S, Tennessee, A.Cromartie, CB, Florida St, Cedric Griffin, CB, Texas - Kelly Jennings, CB, Miami (FL) Alan Zemaitis, CB, Penn St.



Other positions-

DE- Manny Lawson, N.C. St.-E. Dumervil, DE-LB, Louisville-Darryl Tapp, Virginia Tech
WR- Derek Hagan, Arizona St. Maurice Stovall, Notre Dame
QB- Omar Jacobs, Bowling Green
TE- Dominique Byrd, USC
LB- Abdul Hodge, ILB, Iowa, Ernie Sims, OLB, Florida St. Thomas Howard, OLB, UTEP
RB-Brian Calhoun Wisc

[Dozerdog]

Round 3



The Bills have 2 selections in Rd 3, Tennesee's (Henry trade) and our own. This is who will probably be on the board when we pick.



DT- Jesse Mahelona, Tennessee,-Johnny Jolly, Texas A&M -John McCargo, NC State -Babtunde Oshinowo, Stanford

OL- Guy Whimper East Carolina, Adam Stenavich Michigan, Joe Toledo, Washington Jabari Levey, South Carolina, Derek Morris NC State, -
Travis Leffew Louisville Will Allen, G, Texas- Greg Eslinger, C, Minnesota, Mark Setterstrom, G, Minnesota,- Kevin Boothe OG Cornell-Ryan Cook C New Mexico

DB- Dee Webb, CB,Florida -DeMario Minter, CB, Georgia-Donte Whitner, S, Ohio St.- Greg Blue, S, Georgia - Charles Gordon, CB, Kansas Daniel Bullocks, S, Nebraska- Jonathan Joseph, CB, S.Carolina

DE- Parys Haralson, Tennessee -K.Wimbley, OLB-DE, Florida St -Stanley McClover ,Auburn -Ray Edwards, Purdue

QB- Brodie Croyle, Alabama
RB- Maurice Drew, UCLA - Jerome Harrison,Wash. St.
LB- Jamar Williams, OLB, Ariz. St-Freddie Roach, ILB, Alabama - Tim Dobbins , ILB, Iowa State
TE- Tim Day, Oregon -Anthony Fasano, Notre Dame Joe Klopfenstein, Colorado
WR- Martin Nance, Miami (OH) - Mike Hass, Oregon St. -Hank Baskett, New Mexico - Demetrius Williams, Oregon - Jason Avant, Michigan

[Dozerdog]

Analysis-

If the Bills select Ngata #1-


There will still be a ton of LT's and other OL prospects in Rd 2.
DE- will be thin, too many tweeners in this draft.
DB- Plenty of good CB/ safties in rd 2, but it gets thin quick after the 2nd round
TE- none of the "special" TEs will remain- plenty of traditional TEs left
WR- Very thin WR corps overall this year
LB- Good prospects left


If the Bills select Huff or Jimmy Williams #1

There will still be a ton of LT's and other OL prospects in Rd 2.
DE- will be thin, too many tweeners in this draft.
DT- Not a lot of space hogging DTs will be left at #40. Some lighter, speedier DTs remain- Good for the pash rush but not great vs the run
WR- Very thin WR corps overall this year
LB- Good prospects left

If the Bills select Hawk or Chad Greenway #1

The Bills will still have 2 major holes to fill, with a 3rd (DB) looming. Lord help us if Moulds goes, and we still pick LB at #1.

If the Bills select Mario Williams/Tamba Hali #1-

The bills would have a fierce pass rush- but they better hope to get a run stuffer in FAcy. Or go to a 3-4 defense. (Not likely) We could still fix the OL, but the choices left for the other holes become very thin. Forget about QB depth or WR depth in day 1.





So- armed with who we need, who's available, and what's going to be on the board- here are some draft scenarios.

Round 1-Round 2-Round 3A- Round 3B

DT NGata- OL Colledge/ Spencer/ Mangold - DB- WR
DT NGata- OL Colledge/ Spencer/ Mangold - DB- TE
DT NGata- OL Colledge/ Spencer/ Mangold - DB- OL
DT NGata- DB Marshall/Allen/Jennings- OL-OL
DT NGata- DB Marshall/Allen/Jennings- OL- WR


DB Huff/Williams- DT Wright/Bunkley/Wroten- OL-OL
DB Huff/Williams- OL Colledge/ Spencer/ Mangold- OL-TE
DB Huff/Williams- OL Colledge/ Spencer/ Mangold- - DT- TE
DB Huff/Williams- OL Colledge/ Spencer/ Mangold- OL- WR

OT Justice/Scott-- DT Wright/Bunkley/Wroten- DE -DB
OT Justice/Scott-- DT Wright/Bunkley/Wroten- WR- DB
OT Justice/Scott-- DT Wright/Bunkley/Wroten- DB- OL
OT Justice/Scott-- DB Marshall/Allen/Jennings- DT- WR
OT Justice/Scott-- DB Marshall/Allen/Jennings- DT- OL
OT Justice/Scott--OL Colledge/ Spencer/ Mangold- DT-WR
OT Justice/Scott--OL Colledge/ Spencer/ Mangold- DT- DB
OT Justice/Scott--OL Colledge/ Spencer/ Mangold- DT- TE
OT Justice/Scott--OL Colledge/ Spencer/ Mangold- DT- QB



Simply put- NGata I beleive gives the Bills the best flexibility the rest of draft day. Only Gabe Watson- maybe Orien Harris are decent alternatives as your run-gobbling linemen- and they won't be an option for the Bills unless they either trade down in Rd 1 or use their 2 third round picks to move their second rounder up. Even if he's not the superstar DT- I beleive even an average DT will fill the need.

If the Bills go DB with the first pick- then it forces their hand to go only one way in Rd 2- Best available interior lineman- regardless of what side of the ball.

I know it may make a lot of you guys scream and yell at the TV on draft day- but I think the Bills will hold off and grab a couple of OL in the third and 4th rounds. There will be plenty of value in the third and 4th rounds to fill needs.

With a weak WR, DE, DT, and (after rd 1) RB& CB group- I think the rest of the league will jump early on those selections - skimming the cream of the crop and adressing OL later. Yes- their will be a larger than average group of potential franchise left tackles going in the top 40 (up to 5) but there will be a very good crop to be had late day 1 early day 2. The Bills will have 5 selections in the top 110 picks- there will be opportunities to fill OL holes outside of the first/second round.

[patmoran2006]

Doz..

Excellent thoughts. That being said, I think to a point we are in disagreement. I'll explain a little bit (and I'm working on a piece for this as well)

I don't think our top priority is Defensive Tackle. I think our top priority is offensive line. In fact, I think priorities one and two are definitel offensive line.

We do have holes at other places. Most teams at 5-11 are at 5-11 because they have holes. To me, NOTHING cripples an offense more than having an insufficient offensive line, and that's precisely what the Bills have.

I don't care if it's JP, Holcomb, Jim Kelly, John Elway or Dan Marino behind center and I don't care if your handing off to Willis, OJ, Thurman or Greg Bell. Your offense is going NOWHERE when you're OL is weak and ours is very weak. The entire left side (at the least) needs to be revamped.

My first priority in the draft is at OT and it's NOT with Brick, for two reasons
1) You'd have to trade up to get him big time. Rumors are rumors. The bottom line is this guy isn't lasting past pick four. Everybody and their mother has a QB going to Tenn at #3 but i wouldnt be surprised for a second if they trade or sign a veteran QB before the draft. He definitely won't last past pick five at the LATEST. I'm not willing to give up a first, second and probably more to move up and get one player. The draft is too vital to us this year.

2) For as good as he is, It would cost the entire farm to sign him. I'm not for giving a rookie lineman MIke Wiliams money when he hasn't played a NFL down. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting he's going to flop. He will probably be a Pro Bowler. But it would cost too much financially and draft-choice wise to get him.

That being said, I'm trading down from the 8th pick with my intention on being getting a left tackle (or right if you move Peters) that will start from day one. If I trade down, I'll get someone's second rounder as well (and there will be teams willing to do that to move up to eight).

There are two tackles, maybe three that are ready to start from day one.
WInston Justice, Johnathan Scott and McNeil (Auburn). Eight is senseless to pick one of them when one or even both would be avialable from 13-15.

Any would be an upgrade over Gandy, who is just flat-out not good enough to be a starting LT on an effective team. For the sake of this analysis lets say we move down to 13 and end up with Winston Justice.

With my first pick in the second round I am DEFINITELY going guard, no ifs, ands or buts about it. From what I've seen at the combine, these are three guards and at least one will be available when we pick in round two
1) Davin Joseph
2) Charles Spencer
3) Max Jean Giles
(Giles is rated first on most boards. Personally I don't like him. He looks heavy, is slow on his feet. He looks like he'll be a pancake blocker in a power running game but will struggle with pass protection. In fact, he reminds me a lot- too much of Bennie Anderson. I think Spencer is a stud but any are an upgrade-big time)

With my first two draft picks I've now rebuilt my line and it would look like this:
Peters - Spencer/Joseph - Preston - Villarrial - Justice

Anderson and Gandy are out. Anderson hits the bricks and I keep Gandy because he's a good Marcus Price-type. He can backup both tackle positions with quality and can also play guard if needed.

Now I have another second rounder from trading down and THERE I am going with the best DT on the board. (More on this in a minute)

Round Three I'm going best WR and best Safety on the boards.

I think the biggest problem people are doing is underestimating our defense, underestimating the impact of Spikes not being around last year, and over-estimating how bad the unit played last year.

Buffalo still has a ton of talent on defense. I was against it at first, but tagging Nate keeps that secondary intact, and I think they can be one of the best with a better pass rush.

Yes Milloy and Vincent are getting old, but Vincent can still make plays on the ball and Milloy is more than capable if used PROPERLY of being an incredible run support tackle. You dont spend your entire career being one of the best run support safeties and then not know how to tackle anymore in one year.

The most crucial thing is Spikes. His prescence on the field changes EVERYTHING defensively for the bills. He makes plays all over the place, he's underated in pass coverage, excellent as a blitzer and has a knack for finding the football. Most importantly,he is a flat-out leader who gets his team to lay its best and his abscence sent the defense into a tailspin.

For another, Jerry Gray was horrible for some reason with his schemes. He either blitzed ALL the time or not at all. That Atlanta game was dispicible playcalling. You blitz the best running QB in NFL history and give him the whole field to run. He played his corners way off the line. I can go on and one.

Nobody talks about it, but losing Ron Edwards hurt too. Even when healthy he was no Pat Williams, but he's much better than Tim Anderson and Justin Bannon, which is what we were stuck with much of the year. IN turn, that severly hindered Sam Adams, who is one of the BEST playmaking defensive tackles in the game when he is alongside someone who can take some of the focus off him. I compare him to a karl Malone- he needs his John Stockton.

Generally, this defense is still very talented though last year it didn't show. I think they're closer to the second ranked defense in the NFL they were in 2003-04 than they were last year.

I would not cut Adams. I would keep him, I'd resign Edwards and I'd bring in another DT cheaper in FA or 2nd/3rd round of draft that can rotate with them. Keeping Adams loses a lot of cap dollars but I really think Adams/Edwards/2nd Rounder can get the job done.

The basis of my points is that the offensive line has to be the VERY top priority in this draft. They have to get ALOT better. If they can give JP (I refuse to say Holcomb) more time to throw and open up holes for Willis to run, that alone makes the defensive line a lot better.

I go OL with my first TWO picks, and DT with my third.

[Dozerdog]

Doz..

Excellent thoughts. That being said, I think to a point we are in disagreement. I'll explain a little bit (and I'm working on a piece for this as well)

I don't think our top priority is Defensive Tackle. I think our top priority is offensive line. In fact, I think priorities one and two are definitel offensive line.

You can find starters for the OL in rds 2 & 3. After Ngata, unless you pull some trades (and banking on that will be a gamble) you won't find a suitable guarantee DT at the 40th pick.

[Dozerdog]

I go OL with my first TWO picks, and DT with my third.

I just don't see Jesse Mahelona, Johnny Jolly, John McCargo, or
Babtunde Oshinowo as an immediate starter with impact. They are a year or two away from bulking up - and even then it's a crapshoot. And we want to rely on two of these guys if you chop Adams?

[patmoran2006]

I dont want to chop Adams, I'd much like to keep him..

And Justice and Scott are starters in round one. I"m not anymore sold on a second or third round starting OT anymore than you are a DT in the same round.. And givin this team's defencies over the years of controlling the line on offense, I give the OL top priority.

[DraftBoy]

Ok this is where I sit at as far as us picking eight. I hope we trade the damn thing away and move down like 5-10 spots. But since we live in reality this is what I do with pick #8 as the picks thereafter.

We know we are going to a Cover 2 defense, and with Nate being gone after another year (maybe), and McGee on the other side. CB is good for the moment. However Safety is key in the Cover 2 and we need an Ed Reed/Roy Williams type guy. Our man is Micheal Huff from Texas. Kid can hit, play the ball, play the run do whatever is needed of him and is ideal for a Cover 2 scheme. If we trade down I take Jimmy Williams from Va Tech. Now this leaves us with holes at;
DT, OL, WR, CB

Round 2:
My personal opinion is that Gabe Watson is slipping to our pick in round 2 and this is where I would grab him. If he is not there then I still am not concerned because one of Winston, Scott, McNeil, or Justice could have fallen to me, or I take Whitworth. If all the following are gone Im going G and probably going to take Lutui unless Jean-Gilles falls in my lap. I have Gilles, Lutui, Joseph as the top guards for our team. So Round 2 my pick would be; OG Tatsui Lutui
Holes remaining:
C, DT, CB, WR

Round 3:
Pick A. CB Demarrio Minter
Kid really came on this season with Georgia and showed some special talent will hit and make plays on the balls. Not afraid to put his nose in there in the run game. Good size, lacks some discipline but could be a steal.

Pick B. OC Greg Eslinger
Big boy from Minnesotta who can play the C posistion and knows how to anchor a running game. Minnesotta had one of the most dangerous running attacks in the nation led by this kid.

Day 1 Picks;
1. S Micheal Huff
2. OG Tatusi Lutui
3a. CB Demarrio Minter
3b. OC Greg Eslinger

Each pick fills a crucial need. The holes remaining are; DT, WR

DT depth sucked this draft, and I would much rather go the FA route and sign a Grady Jackson, or Larry Tripplett.

WR was non-existant this draft and I wouldnt mind giving a late round pick (6 or 7) to a player like Jeremy Bloom, or taking a 4th and picking Jason Avant should he fall that far. But other wise I think FA is the best option with names like Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Andre Davis, and Tim Carter all avail.

So my team next year would look like this
QB-Losman
RB-Willis
FB-Shelton
WR-Moulds
WR-Evans
WR-FA/DP
TE-Everett
OT-Peters
OG-Lutui
C-Eslinger
OG-Villari
OT-Gandy

DE-Kelsay
DT-FA
DT-Adams
DE-Schoebel
OLB-Posey/Crowell
MLB-Fletcher
OLB-Spikes/Crowell
CB-Clements
CB-McGee
S-Vincent
S-Huff

Now that is a good team imo, and with a good gelling camp could be a playoff contender.

[DraftBoy]

btw ideal Day 2 not counting comp picks is;
4. OT Jeremy Trueblood-Boston College
5. DE Eric Henderson-Georgia Tech
6. WR Dallas Baker-Florida
7. QB Bruce Eugene-Grambling

[Dozerdog]

I dont want to chop Adams, I'd much like to keep him..

And Justice and Scott are starters in round one. I"m not anymore sold on a second or third round starting OT anymore than you are a DT in the same round.. And givin this team's defencies over the years of controlling the line on offense, I give the OL top priority.
In any normal draft year- the bulk of the OL guys- especially Guards and Centers- is done on day 2 of the draft.

This year is a bit unusual, since there is a very high talent level at that position. it's deep.

Conversly- in a usual draft year, high priority is placed on DL- If a team is going to reach for a position- it is usually a DL guy with the measurables. This year is a very down year overall for DT and DE.

I guess it's just draft philosophy at this point. I'd rather get very good players at two positions than get a great player at one, and take a chance with the other.

[Dozerdog]

Ok this is where I sit at as far as us picking eight. I hope we trade the damn thing away and move down like 5-10 spots. But since we live in reality this is what I do with pick #8 as the picks thereafter.

We know we are going to a Cover 2 defense, and with Nate being gone after another year (maybe), and McGee on the other side. CB is good for the moment. However Safety is key in the Cover 2 and we need an Ed Reed/Roy Williams type guy. Our man is Micheal Huff from Texas. Kid can hit, play the ball, play the run do whatever is needed of him and is ideal for a Cover 2 scheme. If we trade down I take Jimmy Williams from Va Tech. Now this leaves us with holes at;
DT, OL, WR, CB

Round 2:
My personal opinion is that Gabe Watson is slipping to our pick in round 2 and this is where I would grab him. If he is not there then I still am not concerned because one of Winston, Scott, McNeil, or Justice could have fallen to me, or I take Whitworth. If all the following are gone Im going G and probably going to take Lutui unless Jean-Gilles falls in my lap. I have Gilles, Lutui, Joseph as the top guards for our team. So Round 2 my pick would be; OG Tatsui Lutui
Holes remaining:
C, DT, CB, WR

Round 3:
Pick A. CB Demarrio Minter
Kid really came on this season with Georgia and showed some special talent will hit and make plays on the balls. Not afraid to put his nose in there in the run game. Good size, lacks some discipline but could be a steal.

Pick B. OC Greg Eslinger
Big boy from Minnesotta who can play the C posistion and knows how to anchor a running game. Minnesotta had one of the most dangerous running attacks in the nation led by this kid.

Day 1 Picks;
1. S Micheal Huff
2. OG Tatusi Lutui
3a. CB Demarrio Minter
3b. OC Greg Eslinger

Each pick fills a crucial need. The holes remaining are; DT, WR

DT depth sucked this draft, and I would much rather go the FA route and sign a Grady Jackson, or Larry Tripplett.

WR was non-existant this draft and I wouldnt mind giving a late round pick (6 or 7) to a player like Jeremy Bloom, or taking a 4th and picking Jason Avant should he fall that far. But other wise I think FA is the best option with names like Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Andre Davis, and Tim Carter all avail.

So my team next year would look like this
QB-Losman
RB-Willis
FB-Shelton
WR-Moulds
WR-Evans
WR-FA/DP
TE-Everett
OT-Peters
OG-Lutui
C-Eslinger
OG-Villari
OT-Gandy

DE-Kelsay
DT-FA
DT-Adams
DE-Schoebel
OLB-Posey/Crowell
MLB-Fletcher
OLB-Spikes/Crowell
CB-Clements
CB-McGee
S-Vincent
S-Huff

Now that is a good team imo, and with a good gelling camp could be a playoff contender.

I like it- except for the DT part. If we are going to dump Adams this year- we are shot. Any idea what the DT's look like?

I also thought at first that Gabe Watson was going to be there at our 2nd pick- but because no one else stepped up, plus a very good Senior Bowl- he and Orien Harris IMHO have jumped up to late Rd 1 or first 5-6 picks in Rd 2

[DraftBoy]

The DT's as a whole suck real bad, our best route to go is definetly FA. Even with Ngata nothing is guaranteed that he will work out, bc I have him as a workout warrior and it doesnt translate well. So our best bet is FA or making a trade. I dont see the same with Watson and Harris as you do. Watson was good but he has wasnt so good that he's a sure fire 1st rounder now. I have faith he will drop to us in round 2.