#8 pick over last 20 years...

[Mahdi]

Here are the #8 overall picks since 1986:


1986: San Diego: Leslie O'Neal DE Oklahoma state

1987:Buffalo: Shane Conlan MLB Penn State

1988: N.Y. Jets : Dave Cadigan G Southern California

1989: San Diego: Burt Grossman DE Pittsburgh

1990: New England: Chris Singleton ILB Arizona

1991: Philadelphia: Antone Davis T Tennessee

1992: Atlanta: Bob Whitfield T Stanford

1993: New Orleans: Willie Roaf T Louisiana Tech

1994: Seattle: Sam Adams DT Texas A&M

1995: Seattle: Joey Galloway WR Ohio State

1996: Carolina: Tim Biakabutuka RB Michigan

1997: N.Y. Jets: James Farrior ILB Virginia

1998: Dallas: Greg Ellis DE North Carolina

1999: Arizona: David Boston WR Ohio State

2000: Pittsburgh: Plaxico Burress WR Michigan State

2001: Chicago: David Terrell WR Michigan

2002: Dallas: Roy Williams SS Oklahoma

2003: Carolina: Jordan Gross T Utah

2004: Atlanta: DeAngelo Hall CB Virginia Tech

2005: Arizona: Antrel Rolle CB Miami

Sam Adams (Ngata), Roy Williams (Huff), Willie Roaf (Justice/Ferguson), DeAngelo Hall (Jimmy Williams), Shane Conlan (AJ Hawk, although Hawk is most likely going to be better) If the players from this draft end up the same caliber as the one next to them who would you rather have?

[lordofgun]

:ill:

[ICE74129]

wow, how many probowlers in there?

5 OLine

4 DL

3 LB's

4 WR's

1 RB

2 CB's

1 SS

[LtFinFan66]

Not too many greats there. Several bust apparently? :idunno:

[Mahdi]

Not too many greats there. Several bust apparently? :idunno:
15 of them have been starters in this league, at least 8 have been pro-bowlers. Im not sure about Greg Ellis, but even if he hasnt been to a probowl, he has been a solid contributor.

[LtFinFan66]

Ok, I didn't recognize 1/2 the names on that list. I will take your word for it. David Terrell probably started at some time and he would still be a bust IMO. Starting doesn't save you from bust status. Ryan Leaf started afterall. Clearly being a probowler would be good :up:

[Mahdi]

Ok, I didn't recognize 1/2 the names on that list. I will take your word for it. David Terrell probably started at some time and he would still be a bust IMO. Starting doesn't save you from bust status. Ryan Leaf started afterall. Clearly being a probowler would be good :up:
yeah I didnt include Terrell as a starter though, as well as Biakabatuka, Singleton, Cadigan and Boston although he did start but he was a bust after 2 years so I dont count him.

[ICE74129]

Not too many greats there. Several bust apparently? :idunno:

There are about 11-12 probowlers on that list. 50% isn't that bad considering ALL first round picks that have been busts over the years.

[ICE74129]

15 of them have been starters in this league, at least 8 have been pro-bowlers. Im not sure about Greg Ellis, but even if he hasnt been to a probowl, he has been a solid contributor.

Yeah and I see two studs at Tackle (but some poster says you don't take OT's with a top 10 pick). One of which has been an all world LT.

[Mahdi]

Yeah and I see two studs at Tackle (but some poster says you don't take OT's with a top 10 pick). One of which has been an all world LT.
You can defninitely take an OT in the top ten. I think the reason people dont want an OT in the first round is because D'brick is most likely gone, and there is believed to be a big drop-off between him and the next guy Justice (which may or may not be accurate), while we can select a player at the top of his positional class like Davis, Huff, Hawk, or Bunkley.

[Saratoga Slim]

8 looks like a lucky number. lets hope we keep it going!

[Throne Logic]

You can defninitely take an OT in the top ten. I think the reason people dont want an OT in the first round is because D'brick is most likely gone, and there is believed to be a big drop-off between him and the next guy Justice (which may or may not be accurate), while we can select a player at the top of his positional class like Davis, Huff, Hawk, or Bunkley.


To be complete honest, I flat out don't like ANY picks in the top 10. The risk / reward factor is just too poor.

If you're going to pay someone top 10 money, you want a probowl calibre starter within 2 years to justify the CAP space. OT's, as a whole, take longer to adapt to the NFL level than other positions.

For instance, there are a number of posters on this board who won't be all too surprised if Mike Williams finally finds his potential in a Jax uniform. We draft him, train him, take up our CAP space with him, and let him go be productive for someone else. No, I didn't want him in Buffalo in 2006 for $10 M. I would have happily kept him here if he were somehow retained in the area $2 M or less.

I'd love to see the breakdown of OT's taken in the top 10 over the past 20 years.

My feeling is that there are more non-probowlers than probowlers on that list. Of those probowlers, I'd like to further breakdown their careers to see when they reached their probowl level. I might be wrong, but I don't think so. If someone has extra time, please feel free to prove my thinking to be in error.

[Mahdi]

Paul Gruber (solid tackle that should have went to pro-bowl but the Bucs sucked)
Tony Mandarich (BUST)
Richmond Webb (7 pro-bowls)
Charles McRae (BUST)
Antone Davis (Solid tackle, no pro-bowls)
Bob Whitfield (1 Probowl, but was always a solid tackle)
Ray Roberts( Good tackle, nothing special)
Willie Roaf (11 PB)
Lincoln Kennedy (2 PB, should have been more)
Tony Boselli (5 PB)
Jonathan Ogden (9 PB)
Willie Anderson ( 3 PB)
Orlando Pace (7 PB)
Walter Jones ( 5 PB)
Kyle Turley
Chris Samuels (2 PB)
Leonard Davis (no pro-bowls but good and getting better when healthy)
Mike Williams ( 4 PB)
Bryant McKinnie ( Solid starter, could be a PB)
Levi Jones (Very good tackle, and would be a PB if not for the great tackles in AFC)
Jordan Gross (No PB, solid starter)
Robert Gallery (Jury is still out on him)

10 of 22 are Pro-Bowlers, Turley would be if healthy, Levi Jones should be. So really 12 of 22 are Pro-Bowlers/Pro-bowl caliber

[ICE74129]

Paul Gruber (solid tackle that should have went to pro-bowl but the Bucs sucked)
Tony Mandarich (BUST)
Richmond Webb (7 pro-bowls)
Charles McRae (BUST)
Antone Davis (Solid tackle, no pro-bowls)
Bob Whitfield (1 Probowl, but was always a solid tackle)
Ray Roberts( Good tackle, nothing special)
Willie Roaf (11 PB)
Lincoln Kennedy (2 PB, should have been more)
Tony Boselli (5 PB)
Jonathan Ogden (9 PB)
Willie Anderson ( 3 PB)
Orlando Pace (7 PB)
Walter Jones ( 5 PB)
Kyle Turley
Chris Samuels (2 PB)
Leonard Davis (no pro-bowls but good and getting better when healthy)
Mike Williams ( 4 PB)
Bryant McKinnie ( Solid starter, could be a PB)
Levi Jones (Very good tackle, and would be a PB if not for the great tackles in AFC)
Jordan Gross (No PB, solid starter)
Robert Gallery (Jury is still out on him)

10 of 22 are Pro-Bowlers, Turley would be if healthy, Levi Jones should be. So really 12 of 22 are Pro-Bowlers/Pro-bowl caliber

Dude, Fat Mike Williams NEVER made a probowl.

[Mahdi]

Dude, Fat Mike Williams NEVER made a probowl.
LOL. that was a joke, was waiting to see who would pick that up!

[ICE74129]

LOL. that was a joke, was waiting to see who would pick that up!

HA!

[Mitchy moo]

really?

[Saratoga Slim]

Paul Gruber (solid tackle that should have went to pro-bowl but the Bucs sucked)
Tony Mandarich (BUST)
Richmond Webb (7 pro-bowls)
Charles McRae (BUST)
Antone Davis (Solid tackle, no pro-bowls)
Bob Whitfield (1 Probowl, but was always a solid tackle)
Ray Roberts( Good tackle, nothing special)
Willie Roaf (11 PB)
Lincoln Kennedy (2 PB, should have been more)
Tony Boselli (5 PB)
Jonathan Ogden (9 PB)
Willie Anderson ( 3 PB)
Orlando Pace (7 PB)
Walter Jones ( 5 PB)
Kyle Turley
Chris Samuels (2 PB)
Leonard Davis (no pro-bowls but good and getting better when healthy)
Mike Williams ( 4 PB)
Bryant McKinnie ( Solid starter, could be a PB)
Levi Jones (Very good tackle, and would be a PB if not for the great tackles in AFC)
Jordan Gross (No PB, solid starter)
Robert Gallery (Jury is still out on him)

10 of 22 are Pro-Bowlers, Turley would be if healthy, Levi Jones should be. So really 12 of 22 are Pro-Bowlers/Pro-bowl caliber

I look at that list, and I definately feel OK about taking a tackle at #8. seems like a pretty high likelihood of getting a mainstay for the OL.

[THE END OF ALL DAYS]

I wish we had earned the right to pick #32 in the draft!

[Throne Logic]

10 of 22 are Pro-Bowlers, Turley would be if healthy, Levi Jones should be. So really 12 of 22 are Pro-Bowlers/Pro-bowl caliber


OK, basically that's a bit above 50% based on your analysis. That's basically flipping a coin for a top 10 sized CAP hit.

I'd still rather trade down into the teens. I bet the odds are about the same with a much cheaper tag.

[Mahdi]

OK, basically that's a bit above 50% based on your analysis. That's basically flipping a coin for a top 10 sized CAP hit.

I'd still rather trade down into the teens. I bet the odds are about the same with a much cheaper tag.
I think taking Justice or Bunkley at 14 would be perfect. Add another 2nd rounder and we can have 3 new starters.