Mitchy moo
05-02-2006, 12:51 PM
Well, got to give them credit for admitting they were wrong!
Will the mock draft now disappear from history? With Mario Williams going first, not only was every mock draft erroneous, no mock draft was accurate past the first pick! Mock drafts are always inaccurate by the fifth or sixth pick, since all it takes is one surprise to throw off every projected choice below. But in this case all mock drafts were wrong from the first pick on down.
http://espn.go.com/i/editorial/2006/0424/photo/easterbrook_TMQ_275.jpg
So far as I can determine, not one single mock draft in the entire local space-time continuum had Williams first. (Actually, mine did, but I didn't finish my board until late Friday night.) Obviously people do mock drafts as a diversion from the fact they are desperate for football but there isn't any this time of year. Still, it set some kind of record for futility that with all the energy put into mock drafts by millions of sportswriters, bloggers and fantasy leaguers, everyone was completely wrong about everything.
Speaking of energy, yours truly attended the draft and was stunned by the amount of energy put into an event that has no meaning whatsoever to human history. Perhaps 1,000 media people were at Radio City Music Hall: most armed with laptop, Blackberry, Treo and at least one cell phone. Thousands of spectators attended, hundreds of event staff were present, many dozens of carpenters and stage crew worked on preparing the set. Three gigantic mobile television studios, the size of tractor-trailer rigs, were parked outside, along with satellite-uplink vans and a mysterious Illumination Dynamics truck mounting a device that appeared to be the shield generator Darth Vader positioned on the Endor moon. (The mysterious vehicle (http://www.illuminationdynamics.com/) is the one on the right.) By dusk Friday, hundreds of New Yorkers began milling around outside Radio City, taking in the scene, as if something momentous were about to happen. Hey, it's just the NFL draft -- which not only has no meaning whatever to human history but also won't even have much effect on the next NFL season: three rookies started in the last Super Bowl. Yes, the NFL is a big business, but $6 billion in revenue in 2005 is a blip on the corporate landscape. Last week General Electric, which had $148 billion in 2005 revenue and whose status is essential to the future of the American economy, held its annual meeting. A thousand media people did not attend.
<TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=225 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000"><CENTER>TMQ Cheat Sheet</CENTER></TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=225>Gregg Easterbrook on:
• Value of trading down (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#trading)
• Language lessons (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#italy)
• The Smithsonian (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#smithsonian)
• NFL Network vs. ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#nflnetwork)
• Radio City Music Hall (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#radiocity)
• Mel Kiper, NFL uber-draftnik (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#kiper)
• Stadium naming rights (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#stadiums)
• Disclaimer hell (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#disclaimer)
• Team-by-team analysis (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#teams)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Yet the draft is great because it's democratizing. No one has the slightest idea what will happen, so all opinions are equally invalid. Hanging around the crowd at Radio City, I overheard emphatically expressed football views that were indistinguishable from those being offered by The Experts. And the fact that The Experts are constantly wrong is democratizing. For example, most draft experts had Winston Justice going in the first half of the first round; he went in the second round. How pleasant -- The Experts publicly wrong! That everyone's views are equally invalid is the best thing about the draft.
In news about news, one subject of debate within journalism circles is whether the "scoop" matters. Everyone wants to be first, of course, but how important is it to be first with something that everyone else will also report a short time later, if not within minutes? True scoops -- such as the New York Times reporting the Bush administration's unauthorized electronic surveillance, something no other news organization knew -- are significant. First-to-the-microphone scoops, where one reporter beats others by minutes, seem evanescent. Nevertheless John McClain of the Houston Chronicle was, so far as I could determine, first with the scoop that the Texans would use the No. 1 pick on Williams. The Chronicle had this on its Web site at 8:20 p.m. ET the night before the draft. Adam Schefter of NFL Network barely missed being first, reporting this on air at 8:24 p.m. ET. Rachel Nichols of ESPN also barely missed being first, reporting it on air at 8:33 p.m. ET.
http://espn.go.com/i/editorial/2006/0502/photo/spirit_dance_sculpture_195.jpg
Amid the bustle of reporters, team GMs and anxious players is the Draft Goddess.
Tuesday Morning Quarterback has long been suspicious of cases in which two highly drafted players played similar positions on the same college team. In 1998, for example, quarterback Peyton Manning of Tennessee was a first-round choice, and wide receiver Marcus Nash of Tennessee also a first-round choice. Nash was a bust: Manning had made him look better than he was. Call it Nearby Nepotism -- beware of collegians who played near other good collegians. Nearby Nepotism ran wild at this year's draft. Ohio State linebacker A.J. Hawk went fifth, then Ohio State linebacker Bobby Carpenter went 18th -- most likely they made each other seem better. Three members of the Florida State front seven -- Ernie Sims, Kamerion Wimberly and Brodrick Bunkley -- went in the first 14 selections, and most likely made each other look better. The cake was taken when three of NC State's four defensive linemen went in the first 26 selections. NC State had a 6-5 record -- if its D-line was so fabulous, how come the team barely broke .500? Buffalo used the 26th overall choice on defensive tackle John McCargo, who lined up next to the top overall choice, Williams. Most likely Williams made McCargo look better than he is. Or maybe McCargo made Williams look better than he is: either way someone is in for disappointment. Yours truly is guessing that of the trio of teams that took Florida State frontline defenders (Cleveland, Philadelphia and San Diego) and the trio that drafted NC State defensive linemen (Houston, Buffalo and San Francisco), many will soon be asking themselves, "How come this guy doesn't look as good as he did in college?"
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502
Will the mock draft now disappear from history? With Mario Williams going first, not only was every mock draft erroneous, no mock draft was accurate past the first pick! Mock drafts are always inaccurate by the fifth or sixth pick, since all it takes is one surprise to throw off every projected choice below. But in this case all mock drafts were wrong from the first pick on down.
http://espn.go.com/i/editorial/2006/0424/photo/easterbrook_TMQ_275.jpg
So far as I can determine, not one single mock draft in the entire local space-time continuum had Williams first. (Actually, mine did, but I didn't finish my board until late Friday night.) Obviously people do mock drafts as a diversion from the fact they are desperate for football but there isn't any this time of year. Still, it set some kind of record for futility that with all the energy put into mock drafts by millions of sportswriters, bloggers and fantasy leaguers, everyone was completely wrong about everything.
Speaking of energy, yours truly attended the draft and was stunned by the amount of energy put into an event that has no meaning whatsoever to human history. Perhaps 1,000 media people were at Radio City Music Hall: most armed with laptop, Blackberry, Treo and at least one cell phone. Thousands of spectators attended, hundreds of event staff were present, many dozens of carpenters and stage crew worked on preparing the set. Three gigantic mobile television studios, the size of tractor-trailer rigs, were parked outside, along with satellite-uplink vans and a mysterious Illumination Dynamics truck mounting a device that appeared to be the shield generator Darth Vader positioned on the Endor moon. (The mysterious vehicle (http://www.illuminationdynamics.com/) is the one on the right.) By dusk Friday, hundreds of New Yorkers began milling around outside Radio City, taking in the scene, as if something momentous were about to happen. Hey, it's just the NFL draft -- which not only has no meaning whatever to human history but also won't even have much effect on the next NFL season: three rookies started in the last Super Bowl. Yes, the NFL is a big business, but $6 billion in revenue in 2005 is a blip on the corporate landscape. Last week General Electric, which had $148 billion in 2005 revenue and whose status is essential to the future of the American economy, held its annual meeting. A thousand media people did not attend.
<TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=225 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000"><CENTER>TMQ Cheat Sheet</CENTER></TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=225>Gregg Easterbrook on:
• Value of trading down (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#trading)
• Language lessons (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#italy)
• The Smithsonian (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#smithsonian)
• NFL Network vs. ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#nflnetwork)
• Radio City Music Hall (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#radiocity)
• Mel Kiper, NFL uber-draftnik (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#kiper)
• Stadium naming rights (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#stadiums)
• Disclaimer hell (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#disclaimer)
• Team-by-team analysis (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502#teams)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Yet the draft is great because it's democratizing. No one has the slightest idea what will happen, so all opinions are equally invalid. Hanging around the crowd at Radio City, I overheard emphatically expressed football views that were indistinguishable from those being offered by The Experts. And the fact that The Experts are constantly wrong is democratizing. For example, most draft experts had Winston Justice going in the first half of the first round; he went in the second round. How pleasant -- The Experts publicly wrong! That everyone's views are equally invalid is the best thing about the draft.
In news about news, one subject of debate within journalism circles is whether the "scoop" matters. Everyone wants to be first, of course, but how important is it to be first with something that everyone else will also report a short time later, if not within minutes? True scoops -- such as the New York Times reporting the Bush administration's unauthorized electronic surveillance, something no other news organization knew -- are significant. First-to-the-microphone scoops, where one reporter beats others by minutes, seem evanescent. Nevertheless John McClain of the Houston Chronicle was, so far as I could determine, first with the scoop that the Texans would use the No. 1 pick on Williams. The Chronicle had this on its Web site at 8:20 p.m. ET the night before the draft. Adam Schefter of NFL Network barely missed being first, reporting this on air at 8:24 p.m. ET. Rachel Nichols of ESPN also barely missed being first, reporting it on air at 8:33 p.m. ET.
http://espn.go.com/i/editorial/2006/0502/photo/spirit_dance_sculpture_195.jpg
Amid the bustle of reporters, team GMs and anxious players is the Draft Goddess.
Tuesday Morning Quarterback has long been suspicious of cases in which two highly drafted players played similar positions on the same college team. In 1998, for example, quarterback Peyton Manning of Tennessee was a first-round choice, and wide receiver Marcus Nash of Tennessee also a first-round choice. Nash was a bust: Manning had made him look better than he was. Call it Nearby Nepotism -- beware of collegians who played near other good collegians. Nearby Nepotism ran wild at this year's draft. Ohio State linebacker A.J. Hawk went fifth, then Ohio State linebacker Bobby Carpenter went 18th -- most likely they made each other seem better. Three members of the Florida State front seven -- Ernie Sims, Kamerion Wimberly and Brodrick Bunkley -- went in the first 14 selections, and most likely made each other look better. The cake was taken when three of NC State's four defensive linemen went in the first 26 selections. NC State had a 6-5 record -- if its D-line was so fabulous, how come the team barely broke .500? Buffalo used the 26th overall choice on defensive tackle John McCargo, who lined up next to the top overall choice, Williams. Most likely Williams made McCargo look better than he is. Or maybe McCargo made Williams look better than he is: either way someone is in for disappointment. Yours truly is guessing that of the trio of teams that took Florida State frontline defenders (Cleveland, Philadelphia and San Diego) and the trio that drafted NC State defensive linemen (Houston, Buffalo and San Francisco), many will soon be asking themselves, "How come this guy doesn't look as good as he did in college?"
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060502