Calculated Draft value for 2006

[mysticsoto]

All this talk got me thinking about how we could check to see the draft value of the Bills' entire draft and see whether our surprise late picks even out our "reach" early picks - using the draft value chart (link included below) I went to the draft pick value chart that is used to make trades. This is what I found:

1a) Whitner at #8 is worth 1400 pts
Whitner at the latest would have gone with Miami at #16 which was worth 1000 - possibly earlier, but we'll be conservative here. Net loss: -400 pts

1b) Moved up to get McCargo. Our 2nd rd pick was at pick#42 = 480 pts. We moved up to #26 = 700 pts and lost our second 3rd rounder at #73 = -225. The net loss then was our second 3rd round pick = -225 since that is what we lost to be able to move up.

Total loss so far: -400 + -225 = -625

3) We ended up getting Ashton Youboty with our 3rd rd pick #70 = 240 pts. Many mock drafts had him anywhere in the mid/late 1st round. I will chose #25 as an "average" of when he might go. Pick#25 = 720. Net gain: 720-240 = 480 pts.

Total loss so far: -625+480 = -145 pts

4) Ko Simpson picked at: 105th = 84 pts. Most mock drafts rated him anywhere from the early 2nd round to late 2nd round. I'll choose the middle at pick#48 to rate him which is 420 pts. Net gain: 420-84 = 336 pts

Total gain so far = -145 + 336 = 191 pts

5) Kyle Williams was projected late 3rd round I'll even go so far as early 4th. Pick#134=39 pts. Early 4th round = Pick#100=100 pts. Net gain = 100-39 = 61 pts.

Total gain: 191 + 61 = 252 pts.

For picks second 5th rounder, 6th and both 7th rounders, I'd say they were about right and won't offer much either way even if we try to be more specific.

However, we do need to include undrafted free agent Martin Nance who was projected anywhere between late 2nd and early 4th. I'll go mid 3rd as an average: The pick where we obtained him "undrafted" has no value point so I will pick the last value point on the chart for a 256th pick which is .4 pts. Mid 3rd round I'll place at around pick 80 which =190 pts. Net gain: 190-.4 = 189 pts.


Total net gain: 252 + 189 = 441 pts.

And that includes our 3rd rd loss. So overall, I think we came out on top despite what it may look like!!! We may have had what appeared to be reaches, but our other picks more than made up for them!!! People should therefore be happy that we actually got good draft value overall!!!

Note: I do not include/add any "potential trade downs" at the beginning because that could cause the whole draft to change and affect who we would have taken later. As you can see, we gained alot with our 3rd and 4th round pick and a trade down could cause quite a change in a positive or negative way. Since this is not able to be determined, it is invalid to assume anything in either direction.


Link to draft value chart:http://www.nfldraftworld.com/tvc.htm

[Saratoga Slim]

Interesting, I'll give you that. Yet another way of saying that we had a good draft on the whole. I concur

[BuffaloBillsStampede]

Very cool way of looking at things

[kgun12]

Nice work! Still not sure I'm happy with the draft, but this does put a more positive light on it!

[G. Host]

IF you believe in draft value chart (which I don't).

I'd rather have picks I wanted wholeheartedly rather than more picks because they were "value" picks. There appears to be two philosphies - one is a lottery where you take a chance and the other is dedicated research possibly overpaying because you have players which you consider overrated.


Non football example:
I used to trade stocks in late 1980's. I dealt with an advisor who told me what stocks were valued based on history, mix, etc. I was losing money sometimes but told I was building up portfolio for future value. I took away control, told what stocks / funds I wanted and I was told I'd lose money. I turned $9K to $16K in less than 6 months which was more than 10x what I got in three years. Then I took out the money and was told I was losing out on large future gains. Two weeks the stock market colapsed.

The broker was all about charts, values, etc. I choose what I considered excellent values despite paying more for stocks/funds than what broker recommended. If you do research well you can find gems like Bills USED to. Lets hope Marv's staff did so this time.

[Hamilton Billsfan]

Very Good!

I always like it when someone can quantify such hard things as this.

[mysticsoto]

I think I've gotten enough feedback from this post that I'm going to make it into an article and have it posted in the Billszone front page for those that don't read the message boards...thanks everyone for the good comments.

[Jan Reimers]

Good analysis. I thought our 3rd, 4th and 5th picks were outstanding, and your chart confirms it.

[BillsFever21]

Youboty was a good pick in the 3rd round. I could care less where the mock drafts had him at. He was passed on 100 times before he was picked by the only draft that counts and that's the NFL draft.

It happens with tons of players every year where mock drafts has a player listed as a first round pick and they slip into the 2nd-4th round(or later) and the player ends up only being worth that 4th round draft pick.

These guys are not NFL GM's. I don't care if most of them have a player listed as a 1st round selection. If the NFL GM's pass on a guy 100 times before he is selected then that is his value and the mock drafts don't mean crap.

If he was this big time first round player like the mock drafts had him at I'm positive another GM would've taken him somewhere in the 2nd round if he would've been that much of a steal.

He was the 10th CB chosen in the draft. Who cares what the mock drafts had him at. If 32 GM's passed on him twice and 5 others 3 times, and was the 10 CB's selected in the draft then that was his true value.

If he was truly the 3rd rated CB in the eyes of the people who count in the draft like the mock drafts had him at then he wouldn't have been passed over 9 other times when a CB was selected. A GM would've seen his name on the list and took him way before that.

Basically what I'm trying to say is mock drafts don't mean crap. Just because some nobodies had him rated so high doesn't mean he should've been a 1st round selection. When you get that far in the draft and that number of selections the true value in the eyes of the professionals determines the players value.

I think he is a good selection in the 3rd round. He is a talented player from a big time school that develops good DB's. All I'm saying is he wasn't one of the top rated CB's in the draft like the mocks had him listed or he wouldn't have been the 10th CB drafted or made it into the 3rd round. He would've been selected way before that.

[mysticsoto]

Youboty was a good pick in the 3rd round. I could care less where the mock drafts had him at. He was passed on 100 times before he was picked by the only draft that counts and that's the NFL draft.

It happens with tons of players every year where mock drafts has a player listed as a first round pick and they slip into the 2nd-4th round(or later) and the player ends up only being worth that 4th round draft pick.

These guys are not NFL GM's. I don't care if most of them have a player listed as a 1st round selection. If the NFL GM's pass on a guy 100 times before he is selected then that is his value and the mock drafts don't mean crap.

If he was this big time first round player like the mock drafts had him at I'm positive another GM would've taken him somewhere in the 2nd round if he would've been that much of a steal.

He was the 10th CB chosen in the draft. Who cares what the mock drafts had him at. If 32 GM's passed on him twice and 5 others 3 times, and was the 10 CB's selected in the draft then that was his true value.

If he was truly the 3rd rated CB in the eyes of the people who count in the draft like the mock drafts had him at then he wouldn't have been passed over 9 other times when a CB was selected. A GM would've seen his name on the list and took him way before that.

Basically what I'm trying to say is mock drafts don't mean crap. Just because some nobodies had him rated so high doesn't mean he should've been a 1st round selection. When you get that far in the draft and that number of selections the true value in the eyes of the professionals determines the players value.

I think he is a good selection in the 3rd round. He is a talented player from a big time school that develops good DB's. All I'm saying is he wasn't one of the top rated CB's in the draft like the mocks had him listed or he wouldn't have been the 10th CB drafted or made it into the 3rd round. He would've been selected way before that.

I disagree with you - not on Youboty specifically, but in your assessment in general. By your way of thinking, no good value should ever fall into the lower drafts then. By all accounts, McGee has proven many critics wrong who had him ranked rather low, and yet he has become a great CB. We could also go with Tom Brady who was overlooked by many a GM and drafted as a 6th rounder - and yet, who doesn't regard Brady as one of the top QBs in the league today? I could go on...but b'cse someone gets dropped low on the list of being picked, doesn't mean their draft value is lower. There could be a host of reasons - like he doesn't fit another teams style of defense, or that the needs of the teams varied to another area such that he could not be picked at that point in time, etc. There are many variables and many players to evaluate and pick from. It's by no means as simple as: you didn't get picked therefore, you're really not that good as the previous mock drafts had you...

[BillsFever21]

I disagree with you - not on Youboty specifically, but in your assessment in general. By your way of thinking, no good value should ever fall into the lower drafts then. By all accounts, McGee has proven many critics wrong who had him ranked rather low, and yet he has become a great CB. We could also go with Tom Brady who was overlooked by many a GM and drafted as a 6th rounder - and yet, who doesn't regard Brady as one of the top QBs in the league today? I could go on...but b'cse someone gets dropped low on the list of being picked, doesn't mean their draft value is lower. There could be a host of reasons - like he doesn't fit another teams style of defense, or that the needs of the teams varied to another area such that he could not be picked at that point in time, etc. There are many variables and many players to evaluate and pick from. It's by no means as simple as: you didn't get picked therefore, you're really not that good as the previous mock drafts had you...

I never said good talent couldn't be had in the lower rounds. What I said is you can't base a players value off of a mock draft.

Just because some amatures had him rated that high. If Youboty was one of the top ranked CB's in the eyes of the professionals then he would've been drafted like that and not had 9 CB's drafted ahead of him.

I never said Youboty sucked or that he wasn't a good deal in the 3rd. He just wasn't a steal "because he should've been a first round pick" like some people are saying just because some mock drafts had him listed as one. Some have even said we had 3 first round picks because of Youboty.

[BillsFever21]

With Whitner and McCargo everyone said that the amatures opinion didn't mean anything.

When the amatures have a player we took rated high they are correct and you can take their word for it.

[Bling]

Amazing how you can spin Whitner and McCargo being good picks in one thread, then when the draft board says they were both negatives but the Bills overall won, the Bills had a great draft and everyone forgets Whitner and McCargo are not good value picks. Which is it? The draft chart or Marv? Marv or the draft chart?

[mysticsoto]

I never said good talent couldn't be had in the lower rounds. What I said is you can't base a players value off of a mock draft.

Just because some amatures had him rated that high. If Youboty was one of the top ranked CB's in the eyes of the professionals then he would've been drafted like that and not had 9 CB's drafted ahead of him.

I never said Youboty sucked or that he wasn't a good deal in the 3rd. He just wasn't a steal "because he should've been a first round pick" like some people are saying just because some mock drafts had him listed as one. Some have even said we had 3 first round picks because of Youboty.

Define "Amateur"...the mock drafts that most of us have been using are from professional analysts. Mel Kiper's sole job is to rate the talent out there. I'm sure he employs many of the same things that scouts for individual teams do. He's also at the combine and pro days...are you calling him and those like him an amateur ??? I call amateurs, people like you and I, people of the zone, etc...

[jamze132]

I like your research! But you could have said it in a few less words, for instance, you could have said, : Mel Kiper licks donkeyballs"!


Nice work!

[BillsFever21]

Well, when these same guys called Whitner and McCargo reaches because they had them rated much lower then that most people said that their opinion doesn't mean anything and that they are stupid.

When them same guys have somebody like Youboty rated high but the Bills grab him in the 3rd round the same people say that we stole him because he was projected to go in the 1st round.

People need to make up their minds. Does their opinion count or not? Are they stupid or are they smart? I think it all depends on what the average fan wants himself to believe.

[BillsFever21]

All I'm saying is that the professionals in the NFL draft room didn't have Youboty rated as a first round prospect or 9 other CB's wouldn't have been drafted ahead of him.

He wasn't rated as high in the NFL scouts eyes as he was in Mel Kiper's eyes and the other websites who rate players.

He is a good talent but don't be calling him a 1st round talent. He is what he is. In the professional eyes that matters he wasn't rated that high.

You can't call him a 1st round talent and say he should've been drafted there because some draft sites said he was. If he was then he would've been and wouldn't have been the 10th CB selected.

Did the NFL GM's forget about him? How would a 1st round player get picked over 9 times by other CB's?

32 teams who make their living for this kind of stuff didn't think he was a 1st round talent. I trust them more then Mel Kiper.

It's a lot different with a player chosen 70th then a player chosen 8th to believe if he was worth that pick or not and how accurate the draft sites had a player rated at in their eyes. At #70 the player was chosen over 69 times and each GM had their shot at the player at least twice.

[mysticsoto]

Well, when these same guys called Whitner and McCargo reaches because they had them rated much lower then that most people said that their opinion doesn't mean anything and that they are stupid.

When them same guys have somebody like Youboty rated high but the Bills grab him in the 3rd round the same people say that we stole him because he was projected to go in the 1st round.

People need to make up their minds. Does their opinion count or not? Are they stupid or are they smart? I think it all depends on what the average fan wants himself to believe.
Players values go up and down all the time. It is not static - it is very dynamic, even when they are virtually doing nothing (Leinart is a good example - he dropped for no real reason as nothing happened from the combine and pro day until the draft to make him drop). However, you are forgetting one key detail that these same analysts are not privy to...and that is: demand. The demand for a player by multiple teams will make his value go up regardless of whether he is said to be "that good or not". If Whitner is a good fit in multiple systems for which teams want to address, then his value goes up as each team may be willing to sacrifice some "draft value" to get the player that fits their system the best. To provide another example, what good would it be to have Peyton Manning in the draft if all the teams picking are set at QB? People need to address the needs within their current teams as well as the type of players that will likely fill those needs. This is something an analyst may try to take into consideration in making their mock drafts, but can never do so as accurately as real life. Ultimately, they are not privy to all the needs of a team - they are not in every teams' board room analyzing the strengths and weakness of a particular team and determining how important a particular player may be to fit the need of said team or in what direction they want to go. All the analysts can do is try to pick where these players will be drafted based on their value they appear to bring to the table - not on a team's need.

But ultimately, it is their inherent base value PLUS the demand for the player by the teams that drives the price of a player up or down.