How Does This Defense Strike You?

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Everyone knows how heavily the Bills have drafted for defense in this recent draft, but has anyone yet taken the time to consider how this investment in defense will impact the Bills' defense, not just this coming season, but next season, after these rookies have had a chance to develop for a season?

The Bills have come out of this draft with at least five players who should be starters in 2007 and perhaps more who may be back-ups. As a result, if they avoid injuries, the Bills will be fielding a young defense with a lot of speed. Here's what it could very easily look like:

Defensive Line:
LDE: Kelsay (Neill*)
3-gap DT:Tripplett (McCargo)
1-gap DT: Williams (Anderson)
LDE: Schobel (Denney?)

Linebacking Corps:
MLB: Fletcher (Spikes or **)
WLB: Spikes (Ellison# or Crowell or **)
SLB: Crowell (Ellison# or **)
Additional Backups: Stamer (Hagan or Ellison $)

Secondary:
LCB: McGee
RCB: Youboty (Clements?)
SS: Whitner
FS: Simpson
Nickel: Greer (or ## )
Dime: Bethea (King or ##)
Backup SS: Bowen
Backup FS: Lee

* Neill is a high motor, undersized pass rusher who needs to put on weight and strength, a year on the PS should accomplish that if he doesn't make the team this year over Denny

# Ellison is a speedy OLB who is good in coverage, but needs to add weight and strength, if he does not make the active squad as a STer, a year on the PS should allow him time to bulk up and learn the defense

** If the Bills can draft Ahmed Brooks in the 3rd Round or later of the supplemental draft, he is a very fast LB who would be a perfect fit in a Cover 2 defense and could take over at any of the three LB positions. If the Bills could get Brooks that low in the supplemental draft, he would be better than any LB they could get in the regular draft that low and they would still have their top 2 picks in next year's draft to use to address their needs on offense at that point.

## If the Bills cannot sign Clements to a long-term extension, they could trade him before the trade deadline for a draft choice that they could use to draft another young CB in next year's draft who can be broken in at the nickel or dime spots.

$ Depending on whether the Bills could get Brooks and how Ellison develops, the Bills would have to choose which backup linebackers to keep from Stamer, Hagan and Ezekiel. I picked Stamer because of his ability on STs, with the assumption that Ellison would make the team. One of the other two could also make the team if the Bills do not draft Brooks in the supplemental draft.

This unit would be very young--Fletcher, Spikes and Schobel (perhaps Denney) would be the only guys close to or over 30--and, yet, have enough experience for the team to make a sustained championship run from that point on. If the players who have just been added are at least average players or above at their positions, this would be a defense that could still grow together and improve as a unit to sustain such a run. Any weak spots could be reinforced with one or two choice free agent signings.

What do you think?

[OpIv37]

If Tripplett and McCargo don't start at the same time, our DL will get owned by the run just like last year. I'm still worried that we only have one starting DT in Tripplett. Schobel is fine but the other DE slot makes me nervous.

Linebackers- if Spikes is anywhere close to 100%, this unit should be fine. We need to start phasing out Posey.

Corner- It depends on Clements- if he shows up and if he plays at his 04 levels. McGee is a playmaker- he sucked at corner in 04 but really came on last year. Hopefully Youboty can make a contribution here.

S- Wire sucks, Bowens is too slow for the cover 2 and Vincent has lost a step. This position really depends on Whitner's and Simpson's ability to step up.

[OpIv37]

one more thing- starting two rookies at S and with the possibility of Youboty starting over Clements at corner- expect a lot of stupid rookie mistakes. Down the road it will be a solid D, but this year is going to be LONG.

[ryjam282]

Thats the thing, in this type of defense it takes the majority of the guesswork out of it. Each player has there designed zone and has to be disciplined enough to stay in it. Rookies wouldn' t be having "rookie" mistakes as they are put in the position to do stupid things.

[Mr B]

one more thing- starting two rookies at S and with the possibility of Youboty starting over Clements at corner- expect a lot of stupid rookie mistakes. Down the road it will be a solid D, but this year is going to be LONG.

I disagree with that. I think they will do well and the only reason they will get owned is because the lack of a pass rush.

[OpIv37]

Thats the thing, in this type of defense it takes the majority of the guesswork out of it. Each player has there designed zone and has to be disciplined enough to stay in it. Rookies wouldn' t be having "rookie" mistakes as they are put in the position to do stupid things.

but offenses do things to trick defenses, like flood zones. It's difficult to count on rookies to stay disciplined and have the presence to respond to the offense, plus they will have to adjust to the NFL speed and the length of the season.

[OpIv37]

I disagree with that. I think they will do well and the only reason they will get owned is because the lack of a pass rush.

come on- Ryan Denney's good for AT LEAST 12 sacks :rolleyes:

[TedMock]

one more thing- starting two rookies at S and with the possibility of Youboty starting over Clements at corner- expect a lot of stupid rookie mistakes. Down the road it will be a solid D, but this year is going to be LONG.

This is just the problem the team will have with the fans. Your statement is 100% true. There WILL BE a lot of stupid, rookie mistakes. Growing pains. Instantly the "brilliance" that now fills Ralph Wilson Stadium (what happened to the smartest fans around?) will start screaming that these guys suck, they were horrible picks, let's run the GM and coach out of town, etc.

However, there will be that minority of slightly irritated fans who do realize that this is a young team that was in desperate need of a two-year overhaul with a lot of new youth on the field, a new GM and a new coach. Stay the course. I don't expect a winning record this year. I'm optimistic, but I'm realistic. I want to see steady improvement and fewer mistakes as time goes on. If by some miracle this team wins 6 or 7 games with steady improvement; that's a collossal success for Marv, Dick, and Co. It suddenly makes us more attractive to free agents as well. Although several people want to complain about the o-line, we did improve via free agency. Not with blockbusting moves, but with definite upgrades. The wild card here is going to be JP Losman's decision making. If given a fair shot, he should also get better. If he doesn't, we have to go rookie QB next year. Holcomb isn't taking us anywhere. He's a nice backup, nothing more. I know nothing about Nall, so I'll reserve comment until I actually watch him play.

[OpIv37]

This is just the problem the team will have with the fans. Your statement is 100% true. There WILL BE a lot of stupid, rookie mistakes. Growing pains. Instantly the "brilliance" that now fills Ralph Wilson Stadium (what happened to the smartest fans around?) .


the frustration of 7 years of losing tends to get in the way of the ability to think. It doesn't matter that Marv and Dick were not responsible for it. It doesn't matter that a two-year rebuilding process is probably necessary. If the team takes the field, makes stupid mistakes, and sucks, the fans will be pissed. And after 7 years of sucking, they have every right to be: If this organization didn't make so many mistakes in the past, a two year rebuilding process wouldn't be necessary.

[HHURRICANE]

After reading this our DL still scares the crap out of me. I think we are going to major league suck this year!! Our secondary is the only thing that is really exciting. The problem is this. Without a pass rush we could have the greatest secodary in NFL history and we are still going to get torched back there. No pass rush = someone is getting open, somewhere. PERIOD.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

one more thing- starting two rookies at S and with the possibility of Youboty starting over Clements at corner- expect a lot of stupid rookie mistakes. Down the road it will be a solid D, but this year is going to be LONG.

You're right, OpIv, this season is going to be LONG...no matter what it was going to be a long season this year. The point is that NEXT YEAR the Bills will have a young, talented defense with some experience that will be competitive and has a chance to be very good.

Posey is gone after this season. Vincent, too. Fletcher may or may not be. Denney is a back-up at best and is likely to be gone after this season as well.

Kelsay may actually play better in this type of defense, although I never expected him to be that great as a pro, but, if he and Neill don't provide any pass rush, that's when the Bills can go out and spend money for a free agent DE who can rush the passer. The rest of the positions are pretty much set with young guys.

After the way that the Bills imploded last season, this was going to be a looong season one way or the other--there were too many old guys and malcontents to get rid of and too many holes to fill to turn things around in one offseason anyway. And, if the team was going to have a rough season anyway, why not transform the team on one side of the ball so that, in a year it that part of the team could begin to be pretty good, instead of being mediocre on both sides of the ball because you've had to add a bunch of rookies to both units. At least this way, the Bills can have a decent defense NEXT YEAR while they try to work in the rookies and replacements that they still need to get on offense--that should give them more of a chance to win games next season at least.

[HHURRICANE]

You're right, OpIv, this season is going to be LONG...no matter what it was going to be a long season this year. The point is that NEXT YEAR the Bills will have a young, talented defense with some experience that will be competitive and has a chance to be very good.

Posey is gone after this season. Vincent, too. Fletcher may or may not be. Denney is a back-up at best and is likely to be gone after this season as well.

Kelsay may actually play better in this type of defense, although I never expected him to be that great as a pro, but, if he and Neill don't provide any pass rush, that's when the Bills can go out and spend money for a free agent DE who can rush the passer. The rest of the positions are pretty much set with young guys.

After the way that the Bills imploded last season, this was going to be a looong season one way or the other--there were too many old guys and malcontents to get rid of and too many holes to fill to turn things around in one offseason anyway. And, if the team was going to have a rough season anyway, why not transform the team on one side of the ball so that, in a year it that part of the team could begin to be pretty good, instead of being mediocre on both sides of the ball because you've had to add a bunch of rookies to both units. At least this way, the Bills can have a decent defense NEXT YEAR while they try to work in the rookies and replacements that they still need to get on offense--that should give them more of a chance to win games next season at least.

It's feasible that we could go 3-13. People better be ready for low expectations. Besides Willis and our secondary, my Madden experience is going to blow this year.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

the frustration of 7 years of losing tends to get in the way of the ability to think. It doesn't matter that Marv and Dick were not responsible for it. It doesn't matter that a two-year rebuilding process is probably necessary. If the team takes the field, makes stupid mistakes, and sucks, the fans will be pissed. And after 7 years of sucking, they have every right to be: If this organization didn't make so many mistakes in the past, a two year rebuilding process wouldn't be necessary.

But, those mistakes WERE made and no amount of crying about it is going to undo it. And, there's nothing that Marv can do about that, either. He inherited a team that was a mess!

All that he can do is clean up the mess--which he has started. And begin to rebuild the team from the bottom up with what little he had to start with on a 5-11 team. And, realistically, that was going to be at least a two year process, no matter what.

And, there were only two ways to do that: bring in a couple of older, experienced free agents and hope to patch enough holes to maybe squeeze into a playoff berth so the fans would stop whining about not having a winning season in X many years, or try to build a young team that has enough young talent to sustain a run for a Super Bowl championship, with a foundation strong enough to continue to contend if it doesn't go all the way the first time it makes the playoffs. That's what Polian did when he took over the Colts--but he had the # 1 pick in the draft the year that Peyton Manning came out, so he went offense first and built his defense later. Marv's building the defense first and, if he doesn't have a QB who can lead the team to a SB on the roster this year, he will have his shot at one in next year's draft....with a young defense to help that QB out if he has to draft him.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

It's feasible that we could go 3-13. People better be ready for low expectations. Besides Willis and our secondary, my Madden experience is going to blow this year.

No doubt, it could happen. If it does, the Bills will draft their top rated QB in next year's draft and everyone can complain when he stinks the joint up as a rookie. But, at least he will have a young defense that will only be getting better as he grows into the job and gets better.

But, if it turns out that JP or Nall actually can play the game well enough to lead this team to mediocrity this season, Marv just has to fill in the weak spots on the offense (and perhaps add a pass-rushing DE) to make the team competitive and perhaps even good enough to make the playoffs next season if the offense can gel enough during the season to win some close games.

My point is that, with experience, this group of young players is just experience and one or two players away from potentially being very good NEXT year after they take their lumps this season (Perry Fewell even said that they would take some lumps this year in his PC yesterday). And, as ugly as it could get this season, that's a big step in the right direction after where this football team was at the end of last season!

[justasportsfan]

My biggest concern whether it's the D or the O are the abilities of our coaches. If they are great at their jobs, they should be able to teach these rookies and vets to learn the system and adopt to it sooner than later. I hate to keep refering to the Pats but it didn't matter to them when they had an injured backfiled, they still won with rookies.


Our seven years sucked mostly because of coaching. It won't matter if we had rookies or probowl vets.

[TedMock]

the frustration of 7 years of losing tends to get in the way of the ability to think. It doesn't matter that Marv and Dick were not responsible for it. It doesn't matter that a two-year rebuilding process is probably necessary. If the team takes the field, makes stupid mistakes, and sucks, the fans will be pissed. And after 7 years of sucking, they have every right to be: If this organization didn't make so many mistakes in the past, a two year rebuilding process wouldn't be necessary.

You're absolutely right, but what's done is done. We have no choice but to start over. Continuously running guys out of town will only lead to another 7 years of sucking. As fans, we do deserve better, but right now there is no other choice than being patient and hoping this young team grows together. We're not going to start pulling for other teams. We also have to realize that no matter how many talking heads have bashed our draft, we have yet to hear tht from any real experts on the matter. Reading that guys like Billick and Acorsi were high on our picks certainly holds more weight then reading that Vic Carrucci likes our picks. Same will hold true for those that hate our picks. Has any expert come out and bashed our picks? Maybe, I just haven't heard anything yet. Guys like Kiper, Mortenson, all these yahoo!, and fox writers, etc. aren't any closer to the action than any of us. I say that because a good friend of mine had his articles posted for a couple of years. I worked with him. His sources were other guys like him. I'm not knocking them. They are knowledgeable, and they put hard work into what they do, but the information is very limited. I put hard work into keeping up with my team as well. I should put that effort into a few articles here and there! It's all just opinions of outsiders. No need to sweat any of it.

[goodkarma]

I don't think you can project Spikes out to be a monster LB either this year or in the future given his injury........Cowart was never the same after his achilles injury. And given our history of not re-signing expensive FAs, my guess is Fletcher isn't going to be around much longer.

[TigerJ]

Heaven forbid, two left defensive ends?! That would be like having two left feet. Otherwise, I like it, Lifetime.

[tonyc37]

Thats what all you guys that loved the draft don't get.McCargo aand Triplett play the same technique.Unless McCargo can become a nose tackle by training camp which is very doubtfull he won't start along side Triplett.He will be used to releive Ttiplett and play in pass rush situations.

[ublinkwescore]

one more thing- starting two rookies at S and with the possibility of Youboty starting over Clements at corner- expect a lot of stupid rookie mistakes. Down the road it will be a solid D, but this year is going to be LONG.

It is highly unlikely that Youboty will start over Clements.

I think we're gonna use clements to groom him, and then let him walk next year.

Youboty might come in for McGee, or see time on nickle packages. He's just gonna get his feet wet before he gets thrown into the fire.

[OpIv37]

It is highly unlikely that Youboty will start over Clements.

I think we're gonna use clements to groom him, and then let him walk next year.

Youboty might come in for McGee, or see time on nickle packages. He's just gonna get his feet wet before he gets thrown into the fire.

I posted that before Clements signed the franchise tender, thinking that he might hold out and not play.

But you're right- now that Clements signed and will be on the field, it's highly unlikely that Youboty will unseat him for the starting job. I doubt he'll take McGee's spot either- McGee was always a playmaker on ST and he turned into one on D last year too.

[ublinkwescore]

It would be awesome if he was a CB prodigy, and unseated Clements... :drool:

[John Doe]

I think that the defense will be good this coming season. There will only be one rookie starting, the pass rush will be improved, and the energy level will be way up.

I see the offense being improved as well.

[OpIv37]

I think that the defense will be good this coming season. There will only be one rookie starting, the pass rush will be improved, and the energy level will be way up.

I see the offense being improved as well.

there could be two rookies starting- McCargo and Whitner.

[John Doe]

there could be two rookies starting- McCargo and Whitner.

Anderson is going to hard for McCargo to unseat. He has a full season under his belt as a starter and is fully mature physically.

If McCargo does beat him out, then he is even better than everyone thought.

[The last buffalo fan]

I'm glad that the real football talk is back, and that the some people, just stop posting. Thank you guys, for your comments and information, welcome again to my site.

Sinceramente,

El director

[OpIv37]

Anderson is going to hard for McCargo to unseat. He has a full season under his belt as a starter and is fully mature physically.

If McCargo does beat him out, then he is even better than everyone thought.
I was not impressed with anderson last year- the only thing he did well was bat down passes.

[John Doe]

I was not impressed with anderson last year- the only thing he did well was bat down passes.

I did not say that Anderson is an all-star or even close to being one.

At this point in time, he will probably win the competition at the 1-gap spot because of his experience and physical toughness. McCargo will see plenty of action - he just won't start.

[patmoran2006]

That is potentially a good defense in 2007, but there are two HUGE keys
1) Kyle Williams has to become good enough to at least be a SOLID rotational DT in the NFL.

2) Youboty has to develop into a starter, that's easier said than done.

I have NO doubt this is Nate's last season in Buffalo. Youboty has to progress as this season goes forward.

I am also confident that by 2007 Simpson will be ready to start at Free Safety. Physically anyway, the Bills combo of Simpson and Whitner have the ability to be the next Doss/Sanders combination.

The offense will become top priority after this season, but the Bills need to invest in a DE who's better than Kelsay. While it may be ridiculous to discuss 2007 FA/Draft moves in May of 2006, a DE and LT are going to be two very HIGH (and expensive priorities) and that's assuming that Nall or Losman do a good enough job at QB to make that not be a priority.

Lastly, I hope I'm wrong but this could be Fletcher's last-hurrah with the Bills. Unlike Clements, I dont think he's necessarily looking to get out of Buffalo. But I think how the defense looks the second half of 2006 will determine if he wants to remain a Bill after this season.

He wont command top dollar on the FA market, but there will be a team like the 2006 version of Cleveland that will pay good money for a 2-3 year deal for a cagey veteran.

[mysticsoto]

When it becomes clear that we won't be making the playoffs, unlike Mularkey, I hope Jauron puts in our 2nd and 3rd stringers to give them experience in real games. This should be ideal for Youboty to gain experience as well as Ko!

[Mr. Cynical]

It's not how it strikes me....it's how it is going to get striked. Be prepared for a run D ranked in the low 20s.