Updated Playoff picture.

[RedEyE]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

Baltimore looks very beatable without McNair. He's an old man and if they win this week, I think he will be riding pine in week 17 to rest his bones before the playoffs begins. Of course that also depends on how the home field advantage positioning all comes into play.

[Patrick76777]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

What about if the Jets beat Miami? Are we out?

Just about. If that happens, We can not catch them.

We would need Cincy and Denver to lose out. (other then the game they play with each other. And we'd need a few other things.


If there is a "most important game" it's the Miami vs. Jets game. we really need Miami to win that one.

[RedEyE]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

It would be great if we made the playoffs, but it is also completely unexpected. No one should hold this team liable if they finish a season at 8-8, 7-9, or even 9-7 without a playoff birth.

The Bills nearly beat the Colts, Chargers and Patriots. Those were all hard fought winable games by Buffalo.

I call this season progression and impressive. I have very high hopes for the future.

[Mr. Miyagi]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

My head hurts like hell.

[Earthquake Enyart]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

I love new scenarios.

[BAM]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

Miami is going to screw us I can feel it.

Hopefully they come out shooting though after the emberassment we just handed them.

[Earthquake Enyart]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

Somehow we need a turn of events that make our last game meaningless to the Ravens.

Or have McNair's injury be bad.

[Jeff1220]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

Get some high sound quality tapes of Pennington's signals to Saban, stat!

[Scumbag College]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

What happens if there is a four way tiebreaker for the last playoff spot?????

[Patrick76777]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

Somehow we need a turn of events that make our last game meaningless to the Ravens.

Or have McNair's injury be bad.

Ask and you shall receive

If Indy wins tonight and beats Houston next week

SD beats Seattle next week

and Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh next week, Baltimore would not be able to get a first round bye and would be locked into the 3rd or 4th seed.

The problem with that is that they might still fight for the 3rd seed in order to have a possible home game in case the 4th seed advances to the championship game.

Is that worth it. It might be

[Patrick76777]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

What happens if there is a four way tiebreaker for the last playoff spot?????

I went through all of that. Provided some examples.

[Mitchy moo]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

Ask and you shall receive

If Indy wins tonight and beats Houston next week

SD beats Seattle next week

and Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh next week, Baltimore would not be able to get a first round bye and would be locked into the 3rd or 4th seed.

The problem with that is that they might still fight for the 3rd seed in order to have a possible home game in case the 4th seed advances to the championship game.

Is that worth it. It might be

Great Job pat, on all of this.

[madness]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

Ok holdup, first off we have to go 9-7 and I don't see it unless the Ravens sit their starters.

Are you bipolar?

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?t=115950

ICE74129 Re: I really think we go 9-7.

Quote: Originally Posted by RockStar36 Baltimore is still going for a first round bye, so don't count on them playing 2nd teamers. They win this week and they have it I believe. Either way, we should beat them

[Devin]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

nice job Pat.

Ill be pulling for indy tonight. Next week is going to be huge.

Playoffs or not this team is far and away better then expected.

[X-Era]

Re: Updated Playoff picture.

Everything went perfect yesterday. We even got a bonus Jacksonville loss. I’ll show you how that helps us later.

Scenario 1. My original plan!

Again, we need to win out (Tenn and at Baltimore). In addition we need the following:

Week 16.
Saturday night – KC over Oakland
1:00 – NE over Jacksonville
4:00 – Cincy over Denver
Christmas night – Miami over Jets

Yes, we need to root for NE and Miami. That’s going to be tough.

Week 17
This is where the Jacksonville loss helps us.

In my old scenario, we needed KC to beat Jacksonville. Now need EITHER:

KC over Jacksonville

OR

SF over Denver.

The reason is that Denver beats us in tie-breakers, but KC beats Denver and we beat KC. So it’s simple. If Denver finishes 9-7, we also need KC to finish 9-7. Because then they would knock out Denver since ties are broken within the division first. If Denver finishes 8-8, then we don’t care what KC does.

Finish (If KC beats Jax)
Buff – 9-7
Den – 9-7
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7
Jax –8-8

We beat the Jets on the 4th tie-breaker, KC beats Denver in the AFC West Tie-breaker, Buffalo beats KC on AFC record.

Finish (if SF beats Denver because Jax beat KC)
Buff – 9-7
Jets – 9-7
Jax –9-7
KC – 8-8
Den – 8-8

We beat the Jets on the 4th tie-breaker, Buffalo beats Jax on head to head.


Scenario 2: NEW

This scenario is similar to the first, only in this one, we do not concede the first wild card to Cincy. We concede it to Denver.

Under this scenario, we once again need to win out.

Cincy finishes the season 0-3 (At Indy, At Den, Pitts).

Tonight
Indy over Cincy

Week 16
1:00 – NE over Jacksonville
4:00 – Denver over Cincy
Christmas night – Miami over Jets

Week 17
*Pitts over Cincy

*This is where it gets interesting, we may not actually need this game. This could get confusing.

Assuming Cincy beats to Pittsburgh and finishes 9-7, the race for the last spot would look something like this.

Finish
Buff – 9-7
Cincy – 9-7
Jax – 9-7 or 8-8 (L to NE, and it doesn’t matter about KC. )
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7 or 8-8 (W over Oakland, and it doesn’t matter about JAX)

Again, tie-breakers are broken in the division first, therefore we eliminate the Jets based on the 4th tie-breaker.

Then we go to AFC record and Cincy and Buffalo would finish 7-5, while the others would not and thus be eliminated.

Buffalo and Cincy would go to the 4th wild card tiebreaker, which is Strength of victory. As is stands right now, if my plan plays out, The teams we beat have 62 wins and the teams Cincy beat have 57 wins. So as of now, we would have the tie-breaker and would get the spot. Those numbers will change in the last 2 weeks. If we did manage to tie in that 4th tie-breaker it would go to strength of schedule and we would also win that one. So Cincy would have to have a 6 point swing in Strength of victory over the last 2 weeks of the season.

Now if Cincy does lose to Pittsburgh in week 17, Strength of victory won’t matter because they’ll finish a game behind us at 8-8. It would look like this:

Finish
Buff – 9-7
Jax – 9-7 or 8-8 (L to NE, and it doesn’t matter about KC. )
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7 or 8-8 (W over Oakland, and it doesn’t matter about JAX)
Cincy – 8-8.

Like the scenario above, we beat Jets on 4th tiebreaker, and we’d beat either the Jags or KC on tie-breaker. We’re in the playoffs.

OK, this is fantastic work and explains much of what I couldnt figure out. BUT, you skipped another scenario which could more likely happen which is the Jets taking one of the other wild cards. How do we get the other one in that case? I say this because the Jets have the easiest schedule throughout the rest of the games.