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if the season were to start right now, I don't think the Bills would be capable of a .500 record. Here's my reasons,
First, while Reed may be able to step in and fill Price's role on offense, we now have absolutely no depth whatsoever on offense. Whereas last year, an injury to Bledsoe would have been the only injury we would have had trouble dealing with, and even then, with Moulds, Price, and Henry, and a switch to a shorter passing game getting more use out of Centers or Riems we would have enabled someone like AVP to have some success. Now, if any of Bledsoe, Moulds, Henry, or Teague go down, we are in deep trouble. If Bledsoe or Moulds goes down, we're gonna start seeing 8 or 9 in the box due to an inability to have any deep passing game whatsoever. If Teague goes down, we have no one to play center at all. Last year, if Moulds (or Price) went down, we could increase Reed's or Riems involvement in the offense ... this year we can start to pass the ball more to Shaw or Campbell, not anywhere near the quality of last year. Last year we had Conaty to backup at center, this year ... i dunno who. Over the course of a season with our current offensive personnel, we'd be extremely lucky to finish in the top 15 offenses in the league.
Then we have our defense. First let me say that I love the signings of Posey and Spikes. However, while replacing Robinson was probably our biggest need on defense, Posey for Newman wasn't needed nearly as much as depth at CB/DT and with the release of Jenkins, now S. While our starters are improved over last year, that's partly because last year's starters were horrible. And still, if any of Pat Williams, Spikes, Fletcher, Winfield, Clements, or Wire goes down, our defense will be just as bad if not worse than last year's. Even when all healthy, our defense will probably be middle of the pack (10-15) or so simply because we do not have the # of quality DTs or corners needed to succeed in today's NFL where having 3 starting-quality CBs and a 4th worthy of being a nickel CB is mandatory for being a top-level D. Add in an injury to any of the forementioned players, and we're back to being in the bottom 10 D's. Not a very good outlook at all.
Finally, our special teams. If Lindell signs, I think that's a big improvement over Hollis. If our kicking hadn't been so horrible the year before, there's no way that Hollis would get the respect he got last year. The guy was middle-of-the-pack at best on field goals/consistency and one of the worst at kickoffs. Lindell will help us big time. Signing Shaw to help our punt return while looking good on paper is probably going to be wasted. I really think that our special teams problem is more coaching-related then it is personnel-related. Why we didn't replace Danny Smith when we replaced Ronnie Vinklarek I will probably never understand. While I think Pat Ruel could be an upgrade over Vinklarek and I think last year's OL could have pass blocked better, I don't think our OL underperformed anywhere near as badly as our ST's did.
So, if we're almost completely healthy this year, I see us having a middle of the road offense, a middle of the road defense, and bad return/coverage teams, which would probably be good enough for right about .500. Toss in the expected injuries, which we're probably due to get considering how lucky we were last year, and with the players we have right now, I think 7-9 would be an achievement.
All that being said, I love the work that TD did last year and hope he can duplicate that success the rest of this offseason, I just don't see people available on the free agent market that can really help us. And unlike many others here, I don't expect much to be available after June 1st. Aside from Washington, no one has gone ultra crazy since free agency started, and at the start there weren't as many teams in bad cap situations as there normally are anyway.
First, while Reed may be able to step in and fill Price's role on offense, we now have absolutely no depth whatsoever on offense. Whereas last year, an injury to Bledsoe would have been the only injury we would have had trouble dealing with, and even then, with Moulds, Price, and Henry, and a switch to a shorter passing game getting more use out of Centers or Riems we would have enabled someone like AVP to have some success. Now, if any of Bledsoe, Moulds, Henry, or Teague go down, we are in deep trouble. If Bledsoe or Moulds goes down, we're gonna start seeing 8 or 9 in the box due to an inability to have any deep passing game whatsoever. If Teague goes down, we have no one to play center at all. Last year, if Moulds (or Price) went down, we could increase Reed's or Riems involvement in the offense ... this year we can start to pass the ball more to Shaw or Campbell, not anywhere near the quality of last year. Last year we had Conaty to backup at center, this year ... i dunno who. Over the course of a season with our current offensive personnel, we'd be extremely lucky to finish in the top 15 offenses in the league.
Then we have our defense. First let me say that I love the signings of Posey and Spikes. However, while replacing Robinson was probably our biggest need on defense, Posey for Newman wasn't needed nearly as much as depth at CB/DT and with the release of Jenkins, now S. While our starters are improved over last year, that's partly because last year's starters were horrible. And still, if any of Pat Williams, Spikes, Fletcher, Winfield, Clements, or Wire goes down, our defense will be just as bad if not worse than last year's. Even when all healthy, our defense will probably be middle of the pack (10-15) or so simply because we do not have the # of quality DTs or corners needed to succeed in today's NFL where having 3 starting-quality CBs and a 4th worthy of being a nickel CB is mandatory for being a top-level D. Add in an injury to any of the forementioned players, and we're back to being in the bottom 10 D's. Not a very good outlook at all.
Finally, our special teams. If Lindell signs, I think that's a big improvement over Hollis. If our kicking hadn't been so horrible the year before, there's no way that Hollis would get the respect he got last year. The guy was middle-of-the-pack at best on field goals/consistency and one of the worst at kickoffs. Lindell will help us big time. Signing Shaw to help our punt return while looking good on paper is probably going to be wasted. I really think that our special teams problem is more coaching-related then it is personnel-related. Why we didn't replace Danny Smith when we replaced Ronnie Vinklarek I will probably never understand. While I think Pat Ruel could be an upgrade over Vinklarek and I think last year's OL could have pass blocked better, I don't think our OL underperformed anywhere near as badly as our ST's did.
So, if we're almost completely healthy this year, I see us having a middle of the road offense, a middle of the road defense, and bad return/coverage teams, which would probably be good enough for right about .500. Toss in the expected injuries, which we're probably due to get considering how lucky we were last year, and with the players we have right now, I think 7-9 would be an achievement.
All that being said, I love the work that TD did last year and hope he can duplicate that success the rest of this offseason, I just don't see people available on the free agent market that can really help us. And unlike many others here, I don't expect much to be available after June 1st. Aside from Washington, no one has gone ultra crazy since free agency started, and at the start there weren't as many teams in bad cap situations as there normally are anyway.
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