Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

[kernowboy]

I imagine there will be plenty of responses from those who don’t read this in full but oh well.

If we had the option of trading out of R1 all together, should we consider it? The situation as I see it is this

1) No11 is a bad pick. Unless a player falls to us, we are possibly going to end up reaching.
2) Many commentators have mentioned that this year is a year when the talent is quite even. Rivers is the top LB, but is he head and shoulders above Connor, Henderson, Adibi etc, and is Kelly massively better than Sweed, Hardy, Doucet etc? The same question could be asked of several players at DT

By trading out of R1, we could almost certainly get a high R2 pick, a R3 or R4 pick and then the R1 pick of the trading team for next year (more here if you scroll down)

Let’s consider hypothetical situations

St Louis Rams
After drafting Ellis or Dorsey, they still need a LT to avoid Bulger getting killed. Pace can’t cut it and neither can Barron. At No11, Ryan Clady is available. They are unlikely to be able to get Michael Oher next year, so trade with us as they need Bulger safe now.

No32 becomes Dan Connor, No41 becomes Limus Sweed, No71 & No72, becomes Dustin Keller and Dre Moore

Atlanta Falcons
After drafting McFadden or Jake Long, they still need their QB of the future. Brohm is there, and Tampa is circling. Not convinced by the rest of the QB class they trade with us.

No33 becomes Pat Sims, No41 becomes Erin Henderson, No71 & No72 becomes Adarius Bowman and Jermichael Finley.

Kansas City Chiefs
Having missed out on Jake Long and taken a DT, they still require a LT. Again Clady is available and with the Broncos licking their lips they jump in and grab our spot.

No35 becomes Fred Davis, No41 becomes Xavier Adibi, No71 & No72 becomes Trevor Laws and Jordy Nelson

I have just considered the DT, LB, TE and WR positions, but we still have an extra R4 pick. In each case we’ve selected a decent player. Whilst it’s all hypothetical, each could help our team and is not beyond the bounds of possibility.


Move forward to 2009. Angelo Crowell hasn’t resigned and Lee Evans has opted out of his contract. We can only franchise one. A lot of tags occurred this year because the average salary at certain positions like S was low ($4.4m). Evans and Crowell are at positions which are high ticket by comparison.

With the extra R1 pick from Rams/Chiefs/Falcons, we could do the following.

1) Replace Evans with Michael Crabtree of Texas Tech (6ft3, 222lbs, 4.49)
2) Replace Crowell with Sean Lee of Penn State or a MLB and move Poz out
3) Draft a top CB like Malcolm Jenkins
4) Package two R1 and move up to get a top DE like Tyson Jackson or George Selvie.

The question that has to be asked is – do we think the player we take at 11, be head and shoulders above a player in the same position we can draft 21 or 22 places below? Do we think that this guy is so good as to be better than getting a further two picks including a R1 in 2009 when we may need to look at the future of some of our star players?

Personally in this very deep draft, I think we should consider this option. We can still easily have an outstanding draft and more importantly get some real difference makers in 2009. Whilst a team may have a Browns type resurgence, this tends to be the exception not the rule.

Wouldn’t it be great to finish this season with 10-6, a playoff appearance, and knowing we enter the 2009 draft with a pick at say, No5 and No22, able to draft players who can take us all the way in 2009.

Just a thought.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

have you seen the last 7 or so #11 picks. Pretty much all of them are solid players.

[patmoran2006]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

It's pretty simple to me, provided he's there.

The past two years, and almost every year.. The position that seems to make a biggest impact as a rookie is LB. Willis was a monster and the 2007 NFL defensive ROY. Beason was 3rd in the NFL in tackles as a rookie.

DeMarco Ryans made a huge impact for the Texans and was the 2006 NFL D- ROY.

We CLEARLY need a better LB than Keith Ellison. Keith Rivers is the atheltic type of LB this team needs. If he's on the board at 11, to me it's a NO BRAINER.

[jamze132]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

have you seen the last 7 or so #11 picks. Pretty much all of them are solid players.

I agree. I say we stay put and pick BPA.

[Jan Reimers]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

If we were starved for picks, I could see it. But we have 10 overall, including 4 in the top 78. And I think we can get a really good player at 11.

[kernowboy]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

But Pat

In 2006, DeMarco Ryans was picked at 33, behind Ernie Syms at 9, Chad Greenaway at 17 and Bobby Carpenter at 18. D'Qwell Jackson at 34 has also been great.

In 2007, Willis was superb but might he have been given a bigger run for his money by Poz picked 23 places lower if he'd not been injured. How far behind was Jon Beason picked 14 places lower ... or Justin Durrant picked 37 places lower who had a superb season with Jacksonville?

Rivers will greatly improve the Linebackers but so will Connor, Henderson and Adibi and if that gives us additional picks who can also become superb players.

With Rivers we won't get to the SuperBowl next year. However with the selection of someone like Connor and then two top selections in the 2009 draft we may just the season after.

Rivers is a very good player but he is not head and shoulders above everyone else as Patrick Willis was in 2007.

if we get offered a radical opportunity to trade down in a deep class and get extra high picks in 2009 we should not dismiss it out of hand

[kernowboy]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

It's pretty simple to me, provided he's there.

The past two years, and almost every year.. The position that seems to make a biggest impact as a rookie is LB. Willis was a monster and the 2007 NFL defensive ROY. Beason was 3rd in the NFL in tackles as a rookie.

DeMarco Ryans made a huge impact for the Texans and was the 2006 NFL D- ROY.

We CLEARLY need a better LB than Keith Ellison. Keith Rivers is the atheltic type of LB this team needs. If he's on the board at 11, to me it's a NO BRAINER.

And if Rivers is gone?

[patmoran2006]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

Getting an offer you cant refuse is one thing.. and if we were thin on picks that's another thing.

But we need impact players and IF our scouting dep't is on the ball, you have a better chance at getting an impact player at 11 than in the second round.

Matter of fact, given the makeup of this team, I"d draft Rivers at 11 and then take a run at moving UP for Fred Davis, his teammate if he's still around near the end of round one, like we did for McCargo in 2006

Those are two GOOD players who we need.

[yordad]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

Maybe our 11th (1250pts) and 72nd (230pts) to the Cowboys for 22 (780pts) and 28 (660pts). That leaves us with 22, 28, 41, and 71.

[gr8slayer]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

I'd take it, the draft is won and lost between rounds 3-7.

[gr8slayer]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

Maybe our 11th (1250pts) and 72nd (230pts) to the Cowboys for 22 (780pts) and 28 (660pts). That leaves us with 22, 28, 41, and 71.

Unless McFadden drops to eleven Dallas has no interest in trading.

[patmoran2006]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

And if Rivers is gone?

I said provided he's there.

I woudlnt be opposed to trading down a little and getting one of the top corners, IF Rivers is gone and we go out and address WR via FA in a big way..

I think we draft Rivers first, fall back on Sweed or Kelly as a 2nd option, and unfotunately, I think a CB is a higher priority to the team than I think it should be.

[colin]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

if we trade i want us to be a net buyer of higher picks.

now that might mean multiple lower 1sts, and packaging up late picks for higher ones, but we saw this year our depth is pretty solid -- we just need some implact playmakers.

wr
de
dt
olb
te
corner

between FA and the draft we need 4 or 5 solid guys for those positions. we can do it all this offseason if we really want to.

[kernowboy]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

We see a lot of teams trade out of R1 and then end up with a stunning selection the following year.

I seem to remember in 2006 the defensive player of the year was actually the 6th player selected at his position, the above mentioned DeMeco Ryans behind Hawk, Sims, Greenway, Carpenter and Lawson. One of the top guys came in the 7th Round.

In 2004, the Cowboys gave up their R1 to us for JP Losman. They missed Steven Jackson but got Julius Jones and the following year used our pick on DeMarcus Ware ..... who are now the better team?

The Pats have done it for years. If they hadn't been naughty they'd have had No7 and No31 despite a 18-1 season.

Trading down can be as beneficial as trading up especially if the talent level is relatively even and looking at the players in this years draft I can easily see that there are players in Round2 who can easily be as good a pro's as the socalled can't miss players of Round1

Bobby Carpenter is now lining up as a reserve ILB despite being selected higher than Ryans

[DMBcrew36]

Re: Trading out of Round 1 entirely: An option?

Maybe our 11th (1250pts) and 72nd (230pts) to the Cowboys for 22 (780pts) and 28 (660pts). That leaves us with 22, 28, 41, and 71.

I'd take that for sure.



I think trading out of the first round, or trading down in general depends on what is done in free agency. If the Bills could get that big WR and run-stuffing DT in free agency, it would give him more options in the draft.