A Big-Time Convo I had With a Draft Guy Last Night

[TigerJ]

BTW, trading down if Harvey is stil there is something I recommended recently. I woud rather get an extra third, get Thomas or Sweed, and use the 2nd and 2 3rds to fill other holes.

That's my preference too. If the Bills would really rather have Sweed, they can go a bit lower and get more value in draft choices than if they wanted Thomas. Initially the talk has been moving down in the 15-17 range (Detroit or Minnesota. They can probably go as low as 20 or 21 and be safe with Sweed.

[Don't Panic]

One thing is certain. If Brandon Albert is still on the board at 11, the phones will be ringing off the hook.

Living in Charlottesville and watching almost all of there games, it is amazing to me how far he has come, and in such little time.

He does not have a lifetime of experience, so I think along with the fact that he is athletic enough to play LT, his upside is huge.

Good kid and team captain. The only thing that bothers me a little is that he did not come out early in the classic sense, but I heard he was probably going to be academically ineligible. I have heard he is quite bright, so he must have lost interest and smelled the $.

In his defense, Branden had a tough road. He came to my school as a 17 year old junior (he turned 18 during that basketball season). The neighborhood he grew up in in Rochester was awful, and there was zero attention paid to his academics while he was there, by him or anyone else. I worked with him on SAT prep on multiple occassions in the spring of his senior year, but he didn't qualify (so much for me the teacher). As a result, he had to go to Hargrave for a year, which he hated. He struggled when he got to Virginia, but then again, many of us would have struggled there too.

The year at Hargrave means he is four years out of high school. So he would have been a senior had that experience not been there. He's 23 now... more than ready for the bigs. Simply put, Branden was not as much of a student athelete as he was an athelete student. And that's fine... he has come so far and worked so hard on the field. That's where he accels. I talked to him right before he declared and asked him every question I could to make sure he was fully evaluating this decision. I knew at the end of that conversation that he was.

By the way, he was a hell of a basketball player. Here's some archives on thos days:

http://www.geocities.com/gbhsbasketball/

Click on the State Playoffs link and look at the 2004 and 2003 teams.

[gameboy]

You don't have to defend him at all.

To me, he is the antithesis of Chris Long, and since they were both here, it is an interesting contrast.

Chris Long had a fabulous senior year, far exceeding anything I thought he was capable of.
But he has been a constant focus of attention since he was a freshman getting his butt kicked every week.
There wasn't a week that the Sunday paper did not have quote from him, however meaningless his participation was.

Everybody knows everything about him.
I have no idea how he will work out, but I think he has limited upside from where he is now.

Nobody around here knew a thing about Albert coming out of Hargrave.

He has exploded in the last year. He is very big and very quick. Much more able to keep weight on than Brick is, in my view.

I love the thought of two UVA guys starting on the line, (Butler), but I might be really, really excited about answering the phone, giving him up and getting two guys if he dropped to us.

As Op said, I have heard that the Skins were drooling over him.

Anyway, in less than two weeks this will be over and we will know.

[Don't Panic]

He's on his way to DC from Dallas now... I have to admit, it may be better to trade down, even if he's available. I guess it all comes down to the confidence they have in Butler.

[Michael82]

I don't understand why we need a guy like Albert. Sure he's a damn good OG and might even make a good OT....but do we really need one? I don't see Butler as a weak link. I see that being our starting C and figure that we'll draft a C on the second day. If he's there, it would be great because I bet we'll be able to trade down a bit.

[Nighthawk]

I think, as well as apparently maybe the Bills think, that this is a deep draft with a lot of 2-4 round talent and maybe 1-2 1st round guys at wr.

At 11 they will be in a spot to get a great young talent at CB or DE and I think they take it.

There is plenty to be had later on.

In my opinion, you always take the "big man" if he is an impact player. That being said, I'd love to see this team take Harvey and grab a WR in the second. Like I posted yesterday, for some reason, I think this team will target Jordy Nelson in the second. Just a gut feeling...and they've been wrong before!

[Goobylal]

No WR this year is worth the 11th overall. I'll be pissed if the Bills take on there. I'm also not excited about taking Albert if he's there, since center is a bigger need and he won't be playing there, and centers don't merit that high of a pick. If the Bills can get a good offer for 11th overall, I'd do it, take a WR (Sweed), then a TE , then a CB, then DE Brian Johnston (assuming the Bills can get an extra 3rd for the trade down).

[acehole]

Yea I posted most of this including J Nelson Idea in my draft thought post...thanks for rewording all of my thoughts....'

Last night I had a 2+ hour conversation with a guy named Rob who works not only in the media for a living, but specifically for a major draft website. Let me just say that much more than me or most of you, he knows exactly what he’s talking about. I’ll note that last year he called the Willis McGahee trade (the team and the compensation) two weeks before it happened, and he also correctly called us moving back up and getting Paul Posluszny. In other words, he’s not Skooby’s “rich friend” (sorry Skoob, had to) Of course that don’t mean he’s right everytime he says something (who is), but I’ll tell you that I trust his sources and knowledge far more than anyone else, and that includes most of the “celebrity” (Kiper, McShay) draft experts.

Here are some notes I took and things I’ve been informed of, in no particular order. You take it for what it’s worth. I guess I’ll have to revist this thread on Monday April 28^th.

• If the Bills keep the 11^th pick, you can forget about WR. You can also pretty much write off DRC and especially Mike Jenkins. From what I’ve been told; the Bills are locked into one of three players; Leodis McKelvin, Bryan Albert, and Derrick Harvey. They definitely expect Albert to be gone and probably McKelvin too. That would leave their decision to be if Harvey is worth the 11^th overall pick.

• Also stated the obvious, that Buffalo will definitely take a WR with one of their first two picks. However, from what he’s gathered, the person Modrak likes the most right now, by FAR is neither Devin Thomas or Malcom Kelly. It’s actually Limas Sweed.

He then laid out several trade scenarios, which I suppose make sense.

• He said if the Bills stand pat at #11 they will definitely go defense with the pick unless Albert is still on the board (I don’t think he will be either). I (this is me not him with the opinion) think McKelvin is gone for sure. So it would be either Harvey or DRC. But he gave STRONG indication the Bills will NOT draft a WR with the 11^th pick.

• Anyway. He told me if they keep the pick #11 I could bet the house they will be trading back up for the third consecutive year to get a wide receiver. He even gave me the TEAM that would be most likely. It would be Seattle with the 25^th pick. He pointed out their first round value at #25 is 720 points. Ironicially, Buffalo’s 2^nd and 3^rd rounder is worth the exact same 720 points. However (don’t know if ya’ll like this) but the WR we’d be trading up for wouldn’t be Sweed. It would be.. Malcom Kelly. The reasoning is Sweed will definitely get taken by Tennessee at #24, and he expects Thomas to go in the 17-21 range. For me personally, I don’t know how anyone could argue with a draft early consisting of Harvey/Albert/DRC and Malcom Kelly.

• If Buffalo wants to secure Sweed they wouldn’t have the ammo to move up past the 19^th pick. The play would be to trade down from 11. He gave me the team most likely to move as being the Detroit Lions, who want Harvey. So if you’re a fan of the trade down, then hope Harvey is on the board at #11.

• Like I said, this is random and in no particular order. I took notes on the fly. He said Malcom Kelly could go as high as 21 (Washington) or as low as the mid 30’s, but there is no way he’d be on the board at #41. He definitely expects him to go third after Thomas and Sweed.

• I don’t know much at all about this James Hardy, but these notes don’t reflect anything great, and from what I’ve been told (and I had no clue) Hardy has some major-league character issues (maybe someone can enlighten the boards?)

• Getting back to the trade-up for a WR with the 2^nd pick. He said the other team that would be most willing to work out a deal would be Pittsburgh at #23. Makes sense, since they have some holes/depth to fill and pick one spot before Tennessee, who’s absolutely going to go WR.

• Not as high on DRC as a lot of people on here.

• Talked again about how the Bills are a big fan of trading up with that second pick and would rather get two impact players in the draft than more players (I guess quality vs quantity). He all-but-guarenteed we’d do the same thing we’ve done the past two years. Mentioned Atlanta (34^th and 37^th pick) and Baltimore (38^th) specificially.

• Lastly, said if by some chance the Bills don’t go WR with their first pick and DON’T trade up before pick #41, that a guy to watch out for with the 41^st pick would be WR Jordy Nelson. Personally, I know very very little about him, but he compared him to a Joe Jerevicius. He also mentioned another WR named Justin Harper as a sleeper, but not in the 2^nd round.

• The last person he talked specifically about was Albert. He said drafting him and putting him on the OL would make the line so much stronger that it would become the strength of the team, and said SPECIFICALLY he would bring a greater instant impact than any offensive player in the draft (for this team anyway).

• Talked briefly about Trent Edwards and said he expects him to take a major step this year. He said he can be a younger version of Jeff Garcia.

• Lastly, and maybe most surprising, he didn’t mention any TE specifically, and doesn’t expect the Bills to take a TE with any of their first 3-4 picks. He said that he doesn’t think so, but that the bills brass really likes this Teyo Johnson and between he, Royal and Anderson they think they’re set at the position for this year. I find that very hard to believe.

Anyway. That’s about it from this conversation. To summarize, it doesn’t look like the Bills will go WR with the 11^th pick, in fact he pretty much guaranteed it. Sounds like if we take a WR its going to come via trade down for Sweed, trade up for Sweed or Kelly, take this Jordy Nelson in round two.

When I asked him for his “official” prediction; he said he thinks Buffalo will draft Derrick Harvey or McKelvin (who I think is gone for sure personally, so I guess Harvey) with the 11^th pick, and then trade their second and third rounders to Seattle and take Malcomb Kelly with the 25^th pick (Sweed and Thomas would be gone)

[PECKERWOOD]

Pat, I'm not sure if what you said is even remotely true but thanks for the great read. Your source ( ) is a very knowledgable person as his views reflect alot of what I've been saying. I would be lying though if I said that I wasn't befuddled about "him" liking our TE situation. At this point, I'm really liking a guy like Kellen Davis in the 4th round somewhere, he is exactly what this team needs. I'm not going to pretend to know it all, I've said that Kelly is a 2nd round pick but if the Bills traded back up into the 1st to grab him I wouldn't be pissed off at all. Anyways, thanks again for the great post.

[Oaf]

SMOKE SCREEN baby!
http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/sho...76&postcount=5

[PECKERWOOD]

Yea I posted most of this including J Nelson Idea in my draft thought post...thanks for rewording all of my thoughts....'

Man, I really like Jordy Nelson alot too but in the 2nd round?? Come on!!!

[PECKERWOOD]

even if this is entirely wrong, the "inside"-ness of this story makes the count down to the draft that more exciting.

i personally know nothing of college players until a few weeks before the draft. and then it gets whittled down so quickly to the 2 or 3 people we "should" take, that i have no idea about these other people.

Thanks for this, Pat.

I agree completely.

[Oaf]

What if by publishing this Pat, word got out that we actually did like Sweed and the Bills hidden intent was ruined and they did not get who they really wanted in the end! It would suck for that guy.

[clumping platelets]

I've been saying Derrick Harvey for 2 weeks now

[Devin]

I've been saying Derrick Harvey for 2 weeks now

A lot of us have (for weeks/months) !!

[Mahdi]

Can Butler play center?

No way Butler can play C. The guy is 6'7, for him to snap the ball and get into his blocking stance is very difficult and he would get bull rushed into Edwards. Also, Trent is only 6'4 and JP is 6'2 so having a 6'7 C is not wise. The middle of the field will be Butler's helmet.

[Mahdi]

I would honestly be siked with either Albert or Harvey. Albert at RG would be a beast. The right side of the line could actually challenge the left side for supremacy. And Harvey would look real good on a line with Stroud, McCargo and Schobel.

[don137]

I think Buffalo and NE are in great positions to trade down. Baltimore needs a QB and NE picks 1 pick ahead of Baltimore so if teams want Ryan and he is available then they need to trade with NE. Also, it is almost a forgone conclusion that Cinci will take Ellis so if teams want Ellis they need to jump ahead of the Bengals and NE is in a perfect spot.. As a result, IMO unless Gholston is available NE will take on all offers for the #7 pick so they can trade down and take a DB. If they can not trade the pick I really see them taking Albert. NE loves to solidify the trenches.
The same can be said for Buffalo. Harvey will be coveted at #11 and I can easily see him still being on the board. Many teams need a DE and since Buffalo needs a WR and still can get their man by trading down a few spots they are in great position to do so. If they can not trade down IMO they will pick Harvey.

[DraftBoy]

I don't understand why we need a guy like Albert. Sure he's a damn good OG and might even make a good OT....but do we really need one? I don't see Butler as a weak link. I see that being our starting C and figure that we'll draft a C on the second day. If he's there, it would be great because I bet we'll be able to trade down a bit.

You are one of the few who think that. Most outside of Bills fans think Butler is merely a stop gap till we get a better option in there but, fans like yourself, Lecter, and Jan, to name three that I know of, are of the opinion that he is still developing and we should wait on him.

I tend to think he's capped out and we should replace him.

[Mahdi]

I think Buffalo and NE are in great positions to trade down. Baltimore needs a QB and NE picks 1 pick ahead of Baltimore so if teams want Ryan and he is available then they need to trade with NE. Also, it is almost a forgone conclusion that Cinci will take Ellis so if teams want Ellis they need to jump ahead of the Bengals and NE is in a perfect spot.. As a result, IMO unless Gholston is available NE will take on all offers for the #7 pick so they can trade down and take a DB. If they can not trade the pick I really see them taking Albert. NE loves to solidify the trenches.
The same can be said for Buffalo. Harvey will be coveted at #11 and I can easily see him still being on the board. Many teams need a DE and since Buffalo needs a WR and still can get their man by trading down a few spots they are in great position to do so. If they can not trade down IMO they will pick Harvey.

Why would Baltimore need to trade with NE to get Ryan? Unless Baltimore believes NE would select Ryan then they would have no reason to trade with NE. Just let NE pick and Ryan will still be there. No one out of the next 4 or 5 teams needs a QB so a deal with NE is not likely since it will cost a team a lot to get there.