Have this up on Buffalo Sports Daily (ducks)
---------------------
So it’s known to all, I’m not going past the first three picks of the 2011 NFL Draft in this or future mocks for two reasons: First, it’s too much thinking and hard work for my taste and lastly, I don’t really care what happens after the Buffalo Bills make their selection.
I’m also going to amend my mini-mock at least a few dozen times between now and late April so if you bet the farm on what I write now, I have a lemon-colored car I’d love to sell you.
Updating my mock will occur whenever I deem necessary. That could include developments such as Andrew Luck staying at Stanford and potential Bills free agents they may (or may not) re-sign or bring in new.
What I lack in quantity when it comes to picks I’ll try to structure with widespread (hopefully not boring) enlightenment as to why I see Buddy Nix going where I’ve went.
So without further ado… Here’s my first of what’s sure to be many mocks.
1. Carolina Panthers- Da’Quan Bowers, DE (Clemson)
There’s no question the Panthers had Luck tabbed if he came out and it would’ve taken a small army of selections to pry away Carolina from the first pick. After Luck’s announcement however, the Panthers probably can’t give this pick away. Since I don’t see them taking a quarterback who didn’t throw for 3,338 yards and 33 touchdowns in 2010 as a member of the Stanford Cardinal, they’ll go in a different direction and make Jimmy Clausen exultant.
Although I view A.J. Green as the top overall player (without Luck) in the entire draft, Carolina still has Steve Smith and a pair of quality young receivers in David Gettis and Brandon LaFell.
Defensive tackle is certainly a possibility with either Nick Fairley or Marcel Dareus, as is Patrick Peterson at cornerback. Ultimately, Bowers could become the next Julius Peppers, he who terrorized opposing quarterbacks in Carolina for eight years before signing with Chicago last spring. Paired with Charles Johnson, who had 12 sacks at defensive end, Carolina could profoundly reinforce their pass rush.
2. Denver Broncos – Nick Fairley, DT (Auburn)
John Elway takes over football operations and undoubtedly would’ve made a play Luck, even with Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton (and yes, Brady Quinn) in the mix. As I stated earlier, I consider Green the best player in the draft but Denver had Brandon Lloyd breakout in 2010 to the tune of 77 catches, 11 touchdowns and a NFL-leading 1,448 receiving yards. They also have2010 first-rounder Demaryius Thomas as well as Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney to fill out a talented unit of receivers.
Peterson from LSU is also a possibility with the second pick and can also play safety according to many prognosticators. Brian Dawkins is 37-years old.
In the end, I think Elway will go defensive tackle because frankly, their front seven stinks. Defensive tackle Jamal Williams is 74-years old (OK, he’ll really be 35 before next season) and a new front anchor should headline Elway’s draft desires. Both Fairley and Dareus are capable of playing end in a 3-4 but of the two, I feel Fairley has a higher ceiling and will be the Broncos pick.
3. Buffalo Bills – Patrick Peterson, CB (LSU)
Don’t worry— I want to launch myself off a bridge as badly as you do with this pick. Simply put, I sense Nix will always take the best player regardless of position when on the clock and in this case, it’s going to be Peterson. Rather than give you a bunch of reasons why we’ll take him, first I’ll list cause to eliminate the others.
Green: Admittedly this greatly intrigues me. A wide receiving corps featuring Green, Lee Evans and Stevie Johnson would scare opposing defensive coordinators to death. However, Roscoe Parrish proved a lot last year and David Nelson looks like a lock to stick around and become more productive. Marcus Easley is a talented rookie who missed all of last season with a knee injury and both Donald Jones and Naaman Roosevelt proved they could handle NFL roles late in the season. There’s just no way Nix can select Green without moving Evans to another team and to me, you can’t have addition by subtraction with the third overall pick. Buffalo’s receivers are the least of the team’s problems moving forward, though the same was said at running back last year before C.J. Spiller was tabbed ninth.
Dareus: If Nix is to even consider him (or Fairley should he be there), he better regard him as someone who can play end in a 3-4. Defensive tackle isn’t just a non-need for the Bills, its perhaps their lone defensive strength. Kyle Williams is a Pro Bowler securing the middle and Torrel Troup was picked in second round last year, making him a “Nix guy.” If Dareus can project as a better Marcus Stroud in this defense I’m all for it, but that’s the only way.
(Of the two, if Fairley is on the board the Bills have a better chance of taking him)
Cam Newton, Ryan Mallet, Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert: There’s just too many question marks about any of these quarterback prospects. All may end up first-round picks, but the Bills would be taking a gargantuan gamble claiming any third overall. If the Bills desire any they can move back into the later part of the first.
Besides, like it or not head coach Chan Gailey loves Ryan Fitzpatrick and feels he can win with him. That’s sure to hold weight with Nix on draft day.
(For the record, I think when it’s all said and done Locker will end up being the first quarterback taken with Mallet the last amongst those four.)
Robert Quinn: This is a dark horse pick for me. Quinn may be the best pass rusher in the draft and it’s no secret the Bills aren’t very good at getting to the quarterback. What could go against Quinn the most is Arthur Moats, who showed plenty of potential for becoming lethal as a rookie, just ask Brett Favre. Nix also handed out $24-million to Chris Kelsay like it was Halloween candy and recently re-signed Shawne Merriman for two years. Merriman may or may not get back to being a feared linebacker, but the $2.5 million guaranteed shows the Bills are going to give him that opportunity in 2011. Still, something tells me he’ll get a long look from Nix, even with the alleged surplus at outside linebacker– and I’m not bothering to count Aaron Maybin either.
Any Offensive Tackle: I’ll keep this short and sweet; the Bills would love to make a major upgrade at offensive tackle, but there isn’t one in the draft that’ll sniff the top three.
Folks, to me this leaves Peterson as the pick. He has special ability and is often compared to Champ Bailey and Charles Woodson in terms of his play. He’s the 2010 SEC Defensive Player of the Year and the Jim Thorpe Winner; given to the top defensive back in the country.
According to multiple scouts his football IQ is off the charts, which only makes his athletic skills that much better. At 6-foot-1, 211-pounds he also has the size to be physical in the NFL.
Besides, he may not just fill the best player available role— he could also become a need. If Terrence McGee isn’t already broken down and washed up, he’s verging on it. Drayton Florence is an unrestricted free agent and I’m not sure I can cope with his fondness for committing at least one dumb penalty every single game (joking, I’ d love him back in a nickel role.). Leodis McKelvin’s play has been about as consistent as a Favre retirement.
Peterson could come in and be the lockdown corner in little time, giving McKelvin a little less responsibility, which could translate to making more plays that actually help and not hurt the club.
The fact that Peterson is great as a returner only serves as a bonus. Say what you want about Spiller and McKelvin’s talent on special teams, but they hurt the team with costly fumbles more than once.
Finally, regarding the majority of comments that will revolve around the Bills needing to stop the run before they worry about cornerback, I feel your pain. However, it’s said there are seven rounds in the draft and rumor has it the Bills will be picking high in all of them.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Dr.Lecter
