It's probably junk science to point to any one storm/hurricane and say that it's because of global warming. A storm is a weather event and global warming is a climate issue. I'm not a scientist, but I'm pretty sure that to document global warming you have to look at trends, not individual events. There are also several other factors at work in determining the frequency and severity of hurricanes. One is the well known pattern of El Nino/La Nina. El Nino results in a west to east upper air wind pattern in the lower latitudes that tends to rip appart tropical systems before they have a chance to develop. La Nina tends to produce lighter upper air flows in the tropics which allows tropical cyclones to develop more easily. So, even if you've got global warming, you're not going to get a lot of hurricanes in an El Nino year, especially with a strong El Nino. Conversely, you don't need a lot of global warming to have a lot of hurricanes in a La Nina year. Moreover, you can have a lot of hurricanes yet with none of them hitting the US mainland. Or you can have a deadly hurricane hit the US mainland in a year with very few hurricanes. Hurricane Andrew hit south Florida in an Ell Nino year when there were relatively few named storms.
In 2012 we started out with a fairly weak El Nino, but it never really developed, and I think has more or less fizzled. That's why we've had quite a few named storms. There haven't been a lot of major hurricanes however. Personally, I think Sandy was kind of a fluke. It got to be a fairly strong hurricane before hitting Cuba, but after that it was a minimal hurricane for a while. What happened is that it hit a blocking pattern in the atmosphere that prevented it from taking a more typical turn out into the Atlantic. Instead, it turned west and merged with a frontal system that energized it even as it lost a lot of its tropical characteristics. The thing is, weather in the northern temperate zones has always had occasional blocking patterns. That's not a global warming phenomenon. They can happen anywhere, but they not so common that hurricanes run into them all the time. It was very similar to "The Perfect Storm" of movie fame, except that one happened at sea and didn't produce the devastation on land that this one did. Did global warming cause Sandy to be stronger than it would have been without it? Maybe a little, but it would be just about impossible to prove. Take a look at hurricane and tropical storms in 20 year chunks and maybe you'll see a trend that supports the notion of global warming, but that's the only way you'll get data that can really indicate something is going on.
Last edited by TigerJ; 11-01-2012 at 09:53 PM.
I've made up my mind. Don't confuse me with the facts.
A wise man doesn't waste effort telling the world he's wise. If it's true, it will be self-evident.
Hey, if I can have 80 degrees every year on my March birthday, I will gladly trade off one east coast hurricane in October.
How else are these cities going to ever get cleaned up?
That's so cold.
And from my own personal physician too....
Long you live and high you fly And smiles you'll give and tears you'll cry And all you touch and all you see Is all your life will ever be.
I was agreeing with you...kind of.
I just like how they stopped calling it global warming and now call it climate change so they can blame everything on it. Not so "inconvenient" Mr. Gore.
Global warming is a scare tactic to try and push political agenda.
The Earth goes in warming and cooling cycles.
And the bills are going to draft a QB in the 1st round and our problems will be solved.
Last edited by coastal; 11-03-2012 at 07:22 AM.
I said you need to strive to better than everyone else. I didn't say you needed to be better than everyone else. But you gotta try. That's what character is. It's in the try.
Or are you, like pretty much every skeptic out there, going to just talk out of your ass without really knowing what you're talking about?
Or...if skeptics weren't so intellectually lazy on this topic, they could just read about it just about anywhere including wikipedia instead of continually spreading falsehoods: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_PeriodThe Medieval Warm Period was not a global phenomenon. Warmer conditions were concentrated in certain regions. Some regions were even colder than during the Little Ice Age. To claim the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than today is to narrowly focus on a few regions that showed unusual warmth. However, when we look at the broader picture, we see that the Medieval Warm Period was a regional phenomenon with other regions showing strong cooling. What is more, and as can be seen in Figure 4, globally, temperatures during the Medieval Period were less than today.
Last edited by mysticsoto; 11-05-2012 at 08:10 AM.