So, what happened to the Romney campaign?

[denverboz]

Is that true? I have a hard time believing they could possibly be too stupid to have a layer of objectivity insulating them from their pollsters.

Cuz when it comes right down to it for the most part they're just all thieves, and will rip off their own if it means making money. I'd like to know how much Karl has pocketed this election cycle. I'd also like to know how this guy has any credibility left what so ever.

And then there's this year, when Rove's Republican attack operation spent nearly $400 million and lost just about every race it contested -- not to mention Rove's on-air tantrum that's already become the stuff of legend.

I think it's safe to say the bloom is off the rose.

"The billionaire donors I hear are livid," one Republican operative told The Huffington Post. "There is some holy hell to pay. Karl Rove has a lot of explaining to do ... I don't know how you tell your donors that we spent $390 million and got nothing."

Rove's operation is holding a phone call for its big donors today "to sum up the race." That ought to be fun, right?

[OpIv37]

Silver measures probability, he never was predicting Obama would win, he was saying what the likelihood was that he would win. Silver got it right because he's insanely smart and his equations are better than anybody else.

They are wrong more than you'd think. Why do you think I always used RCP averages instead of actual polling data? Polls are often slanted (Gallup, PPP, Rasmussen, etc.) they are target certain demographics for certain polling questions. Rarely is it ever truly random. Using the RCP averages (which called it correctly minus florida) balances out those biases.

Does it balance them out? I'll give you that a polling average is more likely to be correct than a single poll. But saying that it balances out assumes that the bias is equal, meaning there are an equal number of polls biased in each direction, and/or that the degree of bias is the same. I find it hard to believe that would occur by random chance.

[DraftBoy]

Does it balance them out? I'll give you that a polling average is more likely to be correct than a single poll. But saying that it balances out assumes that the bias is equal, meaning there are an equal number of polls biased in each direction, and/or that the degree of bias is the same. I find it hard to believe that would occur by random chance.

Does it fully balance them out? Probably not, but Ive found RCP with its averages to be right more often that any individual poll is. So why it can't eliminate every issue, they do a good job of at least bringing the scales back into the realm of reality.

[Ed]

Maybe they played it too safe near the end because they bought into the misleading polls too much.

Or maybe the Republican primary process just created to big of hole for any candidate to climb out of and the momentum he gained was just him reaching his ceiling.

[gebobs]

The bolded ones are within the margin of error, so there isn't anything particularly bad there. The other ones, ouch. They had clear issues with their polling methodology.

To be clear, the margin of error is not a line in the sand as I'm sure you know. It's just a reflection of the confidence interval for the sample. Actual population counts outside the margin of error for the sample are possible, just less probable.

[EricStratton]

With the exception of the poor first debate which allowed Mitt to close the gap I don't think the race was ever competitive.

I think Obama could have lost but Mitt was never going to win on his own merits and picking a Mitt clone as a VP didn't help the cause.

[gebobs]

Does it fully balance them out? Probably not, but Ive found RCP with its averages to be right more often that any individual poll is. So why it can't eliminate every issue, they do a good job of at least bringing the scales back into the realm of reality.

RCP electoral map without tossups predicted 303-235 with Florida going Romney. Pretty good.

[DraftBoy]

With the exception of the poor first debate which allowed Mitt to close the gap I don't think the race was ever competitive.

I think Obama could have lost but Mitt was never going to win on his own merits and picking a Mitt clone as a VP didn't help the cause.

Agreed, though I dont think Ryan conceptually was such a bad idea. The issue was that he quickly made himself into a target with the lies. By the end we barely from him and many conservative pundits are saying that was becuase Romney put a muzzle on him. If true that makes two times in a row now the VP has done more harm than good to the candidate for the GOP.

[mysticsoto]

Agreed, though I dont think Ryan conceptually was such a bad idea. The issue was that he quickly made himself into a target with the lies. By the end we barely from him and many conservative pundits are saying that was becuase Romney put a muzzle on him. If true that makes two times in a row now the VP has done more harm than good to the candidate for the GOP.

I can't agree with that. Ryan solidified the ultraconservative vote for Mitt which he didn't have at the time he chose him. Perhaps Rubio might have helped him w/Hispanics (and Florida) more, but ultimately, nobody was going to help him win...he was just too poor (how ironic) a candidate.

[DraftBoy]

I can't agree with that. Ryan solidified the ultraconservative vote for Mitt which he didn't have at the time he chose him. Perhaps Rubio might have helped him w/Hispanics (and Florida) more, but ultimately, nobody was going to help him win...he was just too poor (how ironic) a candidate.

What did you not agree with? We basically said the exact same thing.

[denverboz]

I can't agree with that. Ryan solidified the ultraconservative vote for Mitt which he didn't have at the time he chose him. Perhaps Rubio might have helped him w/Hispanics (and Florida) more, but ultimately, nobody was going to help him win...he was just too poor (how ironic) a candidate.

He could have helped himself had he presented himself more like as he did in his concession speech. It was the first time I've seen him where I actually had some respect for the guy. Oh yeah, the incessant lying didnt help him either, especially that BS in Ohio and claiming Chrysler was closing plants and moving jobs to China!!! Dumb ass! Anyone that stupid shouldn't be president!!!

And I also think they drugged him up before they let him out there, I suspect he had a near breakdown when the election was called for Obama. I mean especially after hearing from his own team and Fox news how he was easily going to win!!!

[mysticsoto]

What did you not agree with? We basically said the exact same thing.

It sounded like you were saying that Ryan might have affected Mitt's chances of winning. Mitt affected himself with all the flip flopping and outright lies...

If anything, Mitt might have made Ryan look bad - who might possibly consider candidacy in 4 yrs...

[DraftBoy]

It sounded like you were saying that Ryan might have affected Mitt's chances of winning. Mitt affected himself with all the flip flopping and outright lies...

If anything, Mitt might have made Ryan look bad - who might possibly consider candidacy in 4 yrs...

Well he did, but not to a point where it cost Mitt the election. Ryan lied about his marathon time from the very beginning and made himself a very easy and quick target from there on out where he went and whatever he did people were waiting to catch him in a gotcha moment. Remeber the thread about how Ryan didn't wash a single dish at the soup kitchen that was basically one big lie? I always said I didn't consider the marathon lie a big issue for me and I stand by that, but it put undo pressure on the campaign. Ryan was brought on to make the base happy and he was supposed to look like a smart, energetic, guy who was full of ideas and ways to fix the country. In the end he came away looking foolish and like a liar.

[bf1]

People act like it was a monumental failure or the conservative base is dwindling, etc. Look at the popular vote. It's still a slim margin. Romney didn't do enough to win and/or Obama didn't "do enough" to lose votes.

[denverboz]

Gotta post this in a couple threads so everyone sees it!! :)

Karl Rove: Obama Succeeded ‘By Suppressing The Vote’

This *** is just too funny!!! Yeah lets accuse them of doing what we're guilty of so next time they won't be looking at us so much!!!

Sorry Karl!! You spent tens/hundreds of millions on a losing cause, and now your backers are pissed and you come up with wild accusations!!!

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.co...ppressing-vote

[DraftBoy]

People act like it was a monumental failure or the conservative base is dwindling, etc. Look at the popular vote. It's still a slim margin. Romney didn't do enough to win and/or Obama didn't "do enough" to lose votes.

This was a monumental failure. Thinking it was only about the popular vote is a gross under estimation of what occured just 48 hours ago.

[gebobs]

People act like it was a monumental failure or the conservative base is dwindling, etc. Look at the popular vote. It's still a slim margin. Romney didn't do enough to win and/or Obama didn't "do enough" to lose votes.

It's the same margin in popular vote as in '04 though the electoral margin in '12 is much larger.

Wanna bet Obama doesn't say something really stupid like: ""I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it."

[bf1]

This was a monumental failure. Thinking it was only about the popular vote is a gross under estimation of what occured just 48 hours ago.

What I mean is that it wasn't a slaughter.

[The King]

from Yahoo...

Mr. Romney paid a deep political price. The fundraising marathon reduced his ability to deliver his own message to voters just as the Obama campaign was stepping in to define the Republican candidate on its terms. Mr. Romney's heavy wooing of conservative donors limited his ability to move his campaign positions to the center, to appeal to moderate and independent donors

[DraftBoy]

What I mean is that it wasn't a slaughter.

But it was. These results aren't just about this one race, look outside of it and then re-examine your premise.