30 Pass attempts a key number?

[ZAZusmc03]

http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2012/12/02/30-pass-attempts-a-key-number/

The Bills won-loss record after Sunday’s victory is now at 5-7 on the season. What’s interesting is their won-loss record when using 30 pass attempts as an over-under barometer.

Bills are 15-7 when fitz throws 30 or less, and 5-22 when throwing more than 30 passes a game. Why isn't this something the coaches understand?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: 30 Pass attempts a key number?

http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2012/1...-a-key-number/



Bills are 15-7 when fitz throws 30 or less, and 5-22 when throwing more than 30 passes a game. Why isn't this something the coaches understand?

Because the stat needs more context to be meaningful. If we fall behind early and have to spend the whole game catching up, then obviously we'll be passing all day and probably still lose. If we jump out to a lead, even if we do so with the passing game, then we'll run to close it out. It's the same as the claim that Team wins X% of the time when their running back gets 100 yards. The RB often gets 100 yards in the 3rd and 4th when they are icing the game.

[bf1]

Re: 30 Pass attempts a key number?

The key number is our opponent's win loss record.

[YardRat]

Re: 30 Pass attempts a key number?

Because the stat needs more context to be meaningful. If we fall behind early and have to spend the whole game catching up, then obviously we'll be passing all day and probably still lose. If we jump out to a lead, even if we do so with the passing game, then we'll run to close it out. It's the same as the claim that Team wins X% of the time when their running back gets 100 yards. The RB often gets 100 yards in the 3rd and 4th when they are icing the game.

They went into greater detail on the radio pregame show this AM. It's a pretty significant stat relative to Fitz.

[IAG]

Re: 30 Pass attempts a key number?

Interesting.

[X-Era]

Re: 30 Pass attempts a key number?

I love it.

Basically, the Bills themselves are unwittingly admitting that if you have to rely on Fitz to throw to win, we lose.

This is one of the reasons Fitz must be upgraded. You can't run the ball effectively in every single game.

[Night Train]

Re: 30 Pass attempts a key number?

It seems to be league wide. Coaches need little excuses to abandon the run and become pass happy, playing right into the strength of an opposing D. You are dead on about the Bills but it seems many teams I watch beat themselves doing the same thing.

It's baffling how these teams review tape and never learn.

[gebobs]

Re: 30 Pass attempts a key number?

Because the stat needs more context to be meaningful. If we fall behind early and have to spend the whole game catching up, then obviously we'll be passing all day and probably still lose. If we jump out to a lead, even if we do so with the passing game, then we'll run to close it out. It's the same as the claim that Team wins X% of the time when their running back gets 100 yards. The RB often gets 100 yards in the 3rd and 4th when they are icing the game.

I think, being Bills fans, we have plenty of context. Gailey never needs to fall behind to abandon the run.