BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

[DraftBoy]

http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2013/01/what-does-the-department-of-analytics-mean/

When Russ Brandon announced the formation of a Department of Analytics a couple of weeks ago it left many fans wondering what that meant and what possible applications there were to the Bills talent evaluation process. Well you can count us among those fans who were interested in the answers to those questions. We are not experts in analytics nor do we have any intention of trying to act like it, so we turned to people who we consider experts.

Expert opinion on what it could mean for the Bills.

[YardRat]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

Nice.

[JoeMama]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

I don't see how analytics can be effective in the NFL.

Baseball is such a different game. There's a bigger emphasis on individual players. Guys get to go one on one with a pitcher, positions are neatly divided, roles are clearly defined.

Football is this giant mashup of 11 guys to form one cohesive unit. Duties often become blurred. Talent at one position often goes unrewarded because the unit as a whole is terrible.

That's just my opinion though. It could be wrong.

[lightningbolt444]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

I don't see how analytics can be effective in the NFL.

Baseball is such a different game. There's a bigger emphasis on individual players. Guys get to go one on one with a pitcher, positions are neatly divided, roles are clearly defined.

Football is this giant mashup of 11 guys to form one cohesive unit. Duties often become blurred. Talent at one position often goes unrewarded because the unit as a whole is terrible.

That's just my opinion though. It could be wrong.

While I agree baseball is more individual I would not discount this in football either. If you can get 11 guys that individually play to certain tendencies and you build a team off those tendencies this guy is good her this here and so on and so forth you could build a team that hides the other players weakness. You can even do it in game planning week to week and breaking down the other team. As humans we all do certain things without even realizing it. If you can find something an OT does say 80% of the time on a pass play etc you can give a huge advantage to your DE.

I have long thought that the current way of scouting is to much like guess work. People can say this guy is physically gifted he does this right and that right. Then he gets to the NFL and busts. There is more to this than just tendencies but I am a firm believer that if scouts studied more than just physical attributes and stats. Scouting would be farther ahead. People say Tom Brady was taken late. Well if you breakdown his college career he was fantastic. Far to many variables that only some scouts take into account such as surrounding talent, system that the player is in etc but if you break down his tendencies in certain situations you can debunk all those things and figure out what a guy is really about.

[Don't Panic]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

Just saw this... from Nate Silver, the king if analytics:

Is it correct to assume that sabermetrics will never work in football and basketball like they do in baseball? And if so, is that because baseball is much more of an individual sport, or are there other reasons as well?

(Edit: By an individual sport, I mean that for the most part it’s pitcher vs. batter, with anything happening after that only a result of the initial matchup. This is not like football, where even a simple five yard run only happens because of many moving parts, i.e. blocking, and thus makes it much harder to grade anyone on a completely individual level.)
— AllDaveAllDay


A.
Well, I guess I'd put it like this: statistical analysis may not get you as far in basketball* or (especially) football as it does in baseball. But it still probably gets you much further than in most industries.


A lot of NBA teams (especially the ones that win a lot) have become VERY sophisticated about their decision making. Basketball may be closer to the baseball than the football end of the spectrum, both in theory and practice.

taken from www.fivethirtyeight.com

[TigerJ]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

I don't see how analytics can be effective in the NFL.

Baseball is such a different game. There's a bigger emphasis on individual players. Guys get to go one on one with a pitcher, positions are neatly divided, roles are clearly defined.

Football is this giant mashup of 11 guys to form one cohesive unit. Duties often become blurred. Talent at one position often goes unrewarded because the unit as a whole is terrible.

That's just my opinion though. It could be wrong.

Is this a claim that your real identity is Bill Polian?

[TedMock]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

I don't see how analytics can be effective in the NFL.

Baseball is such a different game. There's a bigger emphasis on individual players. Guys get to go one on one with a pitcher, positions are neatly divided, roles are clearly defined.

Football is this giant mashup of 11 guys to form one cohesive unit. Duties often become blurred. Talent at one position often goes unrewarded because the unit as a whole is terrible.

That's just my opinion though. It could be wrong.

It's not the same approach as baseball. Football analytics has been around for quite some time. "Analytics" is a very broad term and there are a million ways to implement them. Different data, different formulas, etc.

[trapezeus]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

i don't think that analytics can't be applied. i just think they'll need to develop the data points more thoroughly and find correlations across a number of categories.

there are no stats for say how many times a LB gets a sack that the OL were double teaming one player. Then it becomes a matter of finding guys who demand double teams, etc.

The analytics depart will have to be cutting edge and essentially tracking their own data. i don't think you are going to cut the current stats and find a different approach in the analytics.

[Bendium23]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

Information is power!

Analytics is not going to take you from a perennial loser to the superbowl. It can however, improve your right/wrong decision making percentage by a few percent. When you make thousands of personel decisions, play calls, gameplans, etc., over the year, a few percent adds up. While that might win you one game the first year, the compounding over the next few years will leave you with a more talented and effective football team. If a good analytics department could result in improvements that allow us to win just two extra game three years from now, isnt that still a big win? Two games is the difference between 9-7 just missing a wildcard, and 11-5 with a first round home game.

Football is a game of inches. So take every inch you can.

[coastal]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

Information is power!

Analytics is not going to take you from a perennial loser to the superbowl. It can however, improve your right/wrong decision making percentage by a few percent. When you make thousands of personel decisions, play calls, gameplans, etc., over the year, a few percent adds up. While that might win you one game the first year, the compounding over the next few years will leave you with a more talented and effective football team. If a good analytics department could result in improvements that allow us to win just two extra game three years from now, isnt that still a big win? Two games is the difference between 9-7 just missing a wildcard, and 11-5 with a first round home game.

Football is a game of inches. So take every inch you can.

Get off the msg boards Russ.

[Extremebillsfan247]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

Analytics in basic form is what Professional Accountants do. It's the study of gathered data, and finding potential trends among other things, in an effort to improve the function, and or make changes to a business model to optimize performance of an organization, or company, etc. It can work in the NFL if it's done properly. JMO

[psubills62]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

Moneyball /= Analytics, but still found this tweet interesting:

@adbrandt: In varying degrees, yes. RT @whitesteve34 Are there any current NFL front offices using the Moneyball philosophy?

[Buddo]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

I think that like a lot of statistical tools, it has its uses. I can see it being of value in a number of areas, and could ultimately provide enough information to inform roster decisions one way or another. Much will depend on the criteria utilized though.
I seriously doubt it will ever become a sole determining factor in any football decision, but I can see it gaining weight over time, depending on its own success/failure rate.
I could see it also taking some effort away from the scouting process, in respect of elimination some candidates whose combination of performance and measurables don't add up, i.e. the establishment of baseline performance criteria, for a given position.
Something like that could allow for a more in-depth look at lower round candidates, by getting rid of the chaff earlier, for example.
Personally speaking, I see it as just an additional evaluation tool, that could help with making the most informed decision you can.

[Mouldsie]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

I don't see how analytics can be effective in the NFL.

Baseball is such a different game. There's a bigger emphasis on individual players. Guys get to go one on one with a pitcher, positions are neatly divided, roles are clearly defined.

Football is this giant mashup of 11 guys to form one cohesive unit. Duties often become blurred. Talent at one position often goes unrewarded because the unit as a whole is terrible.

That's just my opinion though. It could be wrong.

To a point you are correct. The human element is still very important in football but I think it's good to understand trends even if they don't make the decision by themselves.

I wonder how the analytics would have handled Russel Wilson. Statistically he graded as the most efficient QB in the draft last year (making him the #1 player on the board potentially). Of course if the analytics plugged in his height and weight it would have probably delivered an undraftable grade as very few guys have made it at 5'11"

Seattle clearly only cared about the 1st sentence and his game tape.

[Mouldsie]

Re: BBD: What does Department of Analytics mean?

I think eventually when all front offices inevitably start using the same systems that the best teams will be the ones who spit in the face of the analytics. Data says you need to spend money at Position X, Y, & Z? Fine, let the other 31 teams chase those guys and I'll collect the best players at positions A, B, & C. Winning in the NFL has often been a result of developing a strength that gives you a clear competitive advantage. Another way is to go against conventional wisdom at just the right time. After these spread offenses become the norm I think a return to the power run game will prove it's worth, though I suppose that may have already happened (or never happened depending on how you look at it) ---just look at the teams still in this race. See also: Alabama. And Stanford knocking off Oregon. NE has transformed itself into a run 1st team this season BTW

Speaking of the wide open attack, it's nothing new. Don Coryell laughs.