Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

[JCBills]

All credit goes to Wayne Arnold from BuffaloBills.com message boards:

"Ignoring the injury concerns for a moment, there is a small yet vocal segment of the Buffalo Bills fanbase that is ready to bail on Manuel based on what they perceive to be a poor rookie season.

So how should we judge Manuel's rookie season? The best way to do that is referring to the rookie seasons of quarterbacks recently selected in the first round and/or veteran quarterbacks who are currently considered "Franchise QB's."

First, let's go back ten years to the 2004 QB Class and move forward. Since the 2004 NFL Draft, a total of 28 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round (including Manuel). 19 of those 28 started at least half of their team's games in their rookie season (seven started 0 games, two started 5 games or less).

Although the passer rating statistic has been criticized by many over the years, I feel it is the best statistic to determine how productive a team's passing game led by their quarterback was in a given season. This can be supported by the fact that the players considered to be the best quarterbacks in the league are consistently at the top of the passer rating list, while those considered among the worst are consistently at the bottom.

Manuel had the 6th best passer rating of all rookies selected in the first round over the last 10 years that started at least half of their team's games.

Now you might say that that ranking is skewed based on the rising passer rating statistic throughout the league. I agree. That can be resolved by instead referring to where each QB ranked in the league as opposed to the raw passer rating stat.

For example: Manuel's 77.7 rating in 2013 finished 26th best in the league out of 33 QB's who started at least 8 games. That means he finished in the 21.21 percentile.

By comparison, in 2009 Matthew Stafford's 61.0 rating finished 29th in the league out of 32 QB's. That gives him a 9.38 percentile.

Taking ranking percentile into account, Manuel still finished the 7th best QB out of the 19 QB's drafted in the first round since 2004 that started at least 8 games as rookies.

Here is the list:

1. Robert Griffin (2012 - 102.4) - 90.63%
2. Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 98.1) - 85.29%
3. Matt Ryan (2008 - 87.7) - 65.63%
4. Cam Newton (2011 - 84.5) - 51.61%
5. Joe Flacco (2008 - 80.3) - 31.25%
6. Matt Leinart (2006 - 74.0) - 28.13%
7. EJ Manuel (2013 - 77.7) - 21.21%
8. Sam Bradford (2010 - 76.5) - 19.35%
9. Andrew Luck (2012 - 76.5) - 18.75%
10. Ryan Tannehill (2012 - 76.1) - 15.63%
11. Mark Sanchez (2009 - 63.0) - 12.50%
12. Brandon Weeden (2012 - 72.6) - 9.38%
13. Matthew Stafford (2009 - 61.0) - 9.38%
14. Vince Young (2006 - 66.7) - 6.25%
15. Christian Ponder (2011 - 70.1) - 3.23%
16. Josh Freeman (2009 - 59.8) - 3.13%
17. Blaine Gabbert (2011 - 65.4) - 0.00% (last)
18. Eli Manning (2004 - 55.4) - 0.00%
19. Alex Smith (2005 - 40.8) - 0.00%

Not good enough? Too many "busts" in this list? Fair enough.

Let's take a look at how the current "Franchise Quarterbacks" of the league faired as rookies in comparison. Let's consider the 14 NFL QB's whose organizations would consider them "franchise" with at least five years of experience (P Manning, E Manning, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Alex Smith, Brees, Brady, Palmer, Rivers, Romo, Cutler, Rodgers). How did those quarterbacks do as rookies?

Well, six of those fourteen did not start a game as rookies. Another (Cutler) only started 5 games.

So when ranking the seven "franchise" quarterbacks who did start at least half of their team's games as rookies, we have...

1. Ben Roethlisberger (2004 - 98.1) - 85.29%
2. Matt Ryan (2008 - 87.7) - 63.63%
3. Joe Flacco (2008 - 80.3) - 31.25%
4. Peyton Manning (1998 - 71.2) - 25.81%
5. Matthew Stafford (2009 - 61.0) - 9.38%
6. Eli Manning (2004 - 55.4) - 0.00%
7. Alex Smith (2005 - 40.8) - 0.00%

EJ's 21.21% would go just below Manning and well ahead of Stafford.

What does this tell us? It tells us that from a passer rating standpoint, Manuel produced slightly above average results as a rookie compared to other first-round picks in recent history. He also performed in the middle among those that would now be considered "franchise quarterbacks."

This while also taking into account that Manuel was chosen in the middle of the first round, he was considered to be "raw" coming out and not close to a finished product, and that his season was derailed three separate times by nagging freak knee injuries.

This bodes very well for the future."

[Night Train]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

I have this new shiny pitchfork and lost the receipt. Quit posting sensible stats and logic.

Where is my mob ?

[X-Era]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

The problem is that it's one stat.

Ask TD if he can find stats that show EJ is not very good. Stats can lie.

For one thing he only played in about half the games. What would he have done with the other half? No way to know. He could have been real bad, real good, or just about the same. And that stat could be drastically affected by basically doubling the data.

I haven't seen enough of EJ to form a conclusion yet. I've seen good and bad but not enough to label him yet.

[Night Train]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

I haven't seen enough of EJ to form a conclusion yet.

I'm pretty sure that's the point.

[gebobs]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

His passer rating doesn't mean squat if he's not on the field.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

The eye test results from those QBs after rookie season: Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Ryan, Newton, and the recent Luck, Griffin all looked to be very good. EJ is not in the bust looking category, just more in the main stream of "not sure" group. That's where the problem is because we all want to be certain that we got the guy and we don't know.

[Saratoga Slim]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

The eye test results from those QBs after rookie season: Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Ryan, Newton, and the recent Luck, Griffin all looked to be very good. EJ is not in the bust looking category, just more in the main stream of "not sure" group. That's where the problem is because we all want to be certain that we got the guy and we don't know.

Yeah, I'd agree with this. My issue is I don't think the ceiling is as high as we initially thought. To me he feels like he will be competent guy who doesn't make many mistakes, but will never be elite.

As far as the passer rating stat that started this thread....that's encouraging, but it doesn't surprise me. EJ didn't make many mistakes. Other than that one 4 INT game against TB, and the 2 INTs against Baltimore, he never threw more than one pick in a game. And he had a pretty high completion rate too, because he frequently went to his outlet and avoided the mid to longer range throws. That makes your stats look better, but creates a very limited offense that's easy to defend.

You also have to take into account that he had a lot of help from the run game - we were 2nd in the NFL in rushing YPG. You'd think with us running that well, there would have been space in the secondary for him to take advantage of.

Please don't get me wrong - the guy didn't play badly for a rookie. In fact, he did what you want a rookie to do: avoid mistakes and don't hold the rest of the team back. My problem is that, based solely on my own opinion, the accuracy thing is a huge deal. I don't think you can fix it, and thus I don't think EJ's ceiling is as high as one would like to think, given his character, size, work ethic, and arm strength. Name one 'elite' QB that isn't extremely accurate. You can be short (Wilson, Brees), a jerk (Rothlisberger), and even have limited arm strength (Brees, Pey Pey), but you can't be inaccurate.

I just see this as another three year project that results in three years of average QB play and average results. After 14 years of no playoffs, I'm done with that. Keep drafting first day QB talent until we strike gold.

[gr8slayer]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

The guy came into the league as a project, and simply shouldn't have had to be the starter from day one. Kolb going down really screwed up the plan for Manuel. After being thrust into the roll, I think he did a decent job.

[alohabillsfan]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

The guy came into the league as a project, and simply shouldn't have had to be the starter from day one. Kolb going down really screwed up the plan for Manuel. After being thrust into the roll, I think he did a decent job.

How the hell is a guy that played at a major football program with the number of starts he had in a pro style offense a freaking project? Can Newton project yes, EJ nope. He has no ceiling

[Bangarang]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

EJ missed a ton of reads and big play opportunities.

He just wasn't very good.

Even his best games would only be considered decent by NFL standards.

He has a lot of work to do.

[Bill Cody]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

How the hell is a guy that played at a major football program with the number of starts he had in a pro style offense a freaking project? Can Newton project yes, EJ nope. He has no ceiling

2 years as a starter isn't a lot of starts.

[Typ0]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

His work and growth during this offseason is what's going to tell the story on EJ. I think we have a QB that can make plays to win games in the NFL and who also won't make the big negative plays. That's exciting. We need him to stay on the field that is critical to his assessment as a QB in the NFL.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

I'd say when Nix drafted him knowing he's only a 2 year starter really surprised me because I know Nix subscribes to the theory that "if a guy has done in it in high school and done it in college, chances are he's going to do it in NFL." EJ didn't exactly do it in college. If you look at him as a Junior in college last year, he's well on his path.

Time will tell. I have a feeling he may be a different (kind) version of Flacco as the best scenario: hide behind a strong D and running game while developing and stepping up in some critical moments. But he's not your "franchise."

[SquishDaFish]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

Like I said you have to give rookie qbs more than one year

[THATHURMANATOR]

Re: Interesting Look At EJ And Rookie QBs

His work and growth during this offseason is what's going to tell the story on EJ. I think we have a QB that can make plays to win games in the NFL and who also won't make the big negative plays. That's exciting. We need him to stay on the field that is critical to his assessment as a QB in the NFL.

Perfect post.