Originally Posted by
Fletch
That's irrelevant. Many teams lost 4 games or so by even less than that. It happens every season to most teams. NE lost 4 games by 7 points or less too. Cleveland lost 4 games by 7 points or less too. Tampa lost 4 games by 3 points or less.
What's your point on that, it happens to every team. You cannot just assume that we automatically win those 4 more games every season, otherwise we would have won the 4 games that we lost by 7 points or less in 2012 last season and finished 10-6.
OK, so let's assume that one has 10 and the other 6, you can pick which as it doesn't matter. That's 16 passing TDs between the two. Clearly the rest of the WRs and the TEs and RBs would get some too. Let's be conservative and say 10 more since the 9 that I projected above should go up if our QB play is that good.
So you think that Manuel, or Tuel/Lewis/Manuel, are going to throw for 26 TDs this season? Seriously?
To add a perspective to this, Brady in NE last season threw 25 TDs.
I still don't understand what your hope in our QB situation is for this massive leap in play at that spot. Training camp isn't coming close to supporting such a notion and it's only training camp, the defense isn't even playing for keeps yet.
I think that if Manuel can hit 20 TDs then it would be remarkable.
I also think that Williams' TD production is largely going to happen in the red zone where we were ranked 29th last season, so I think that 6 is very very generous for him considering that.
Also, until another RB steps up to become a solid 3rd-down option, something we don't presently have aside from Jackson, I see more issues on offense than problems solved from last season to this one. Jackson's already struggling with minor injuries.
Under the present set of circumstances we're either going to be very predictable (passing) on 3rd downs, or very ineffective since Spiller, Brown, and Dixon all suck on 3rd downs given their histories on 3rd's. Neither Brown nor Dixon are good receivers, period, not just on 3rd downs. Spiller's a fine receiving back, but the team doesn't play him on 3rd-down precisely because it's predictable that they're going to throw when he's in there on 3rd's.
It's fun to talk about Dixon and Brown as if they're going to do something for us, but in doing so it's a good idea to look at their histories in the NFL, and in college even, to see if they're the types of RBs that can do what many are expecting them to do. Don't you think.
I think that this offense is going to struggle on 3rd downs, both offensively and defensively. Offensively we'll be predictable as a passing team on 3rd downs, or like I pointed out, we won't be effective running on 3rd's with any consistency whatsoever. Defensively we don't have any LBs that have proven that they can play well on passing downs, definitely nothing above average, I see our defense getting shredded by pass plays on 3rd downs, not to mention in the passing game altogether.
We play some great passing offenses too this season. We play NE which will be much better than they were last season, we also have to play Denver, SD, Chicago, Detroit, GB, all top-10 passing teams. We couldn't beat top-half passing teams, at all, last season. How are we going to stop them this season with Alonzo out and Byrd gone?
We also play Cleveland and Houston, both top half last season in passing. You can dismiss Cleveland but they beat us last season and Hoyer is looking good according to reports there. You can dismiss Houston too, but we didn't beat one single team, not one, that was ranked better than 18th last season in passing.
If we use last season's defensive MO, then we lose those 9 games. Again, we did not beat one single passing team ranked higher than 18th despite all of the sacks and INTs we achieved. Maybe people had better begin looking at why all those sacks and INTs but no ability to shut down any above average passing team before insisting that our defense isn't going to be a bottom-dwelling defense again this season.
We also face many many more top-10 RBs to compound matters.