I don't see it either, it's either going to be pass or fail this year, which is probably real significant.Originally Posted by OpIv37
I don't see it either, it's either going to be pass or fail this year, which is probably real significant.
OpIv37 (10-29-2014)
Year Base Signing Bonus Roster Bonus Option Bonus Workout Bonus Restruc. Bonus Incentive Cap Hit Dead 2014 2,500,000 1,500,000 - - - - - 4,000,000 3,000,000 2015 5,400,000 1,500,000 - - 100,000 - - 7,000,000 1,500,000
I don't know how the player option works because the team can always cut a player. I assume in Orton's case, if he elects to opt out 2015, he has to pay back the 1.5 million pro-rated signing bonus.
hes currently playing way above his career norm statistically. if he could keep that up he would be a legit franchise caliber qb, but i doubt that he can. now would not be the right time to extend regardless, but especially since we cant really have much of an idea what kind of reliable long term production he would give them it makes even less sense
if he has success here over the rest of the season that puts the bills in a great position. he doesnt seem like the sort that would just say well thanks for diving my price up now im gonna go find who will pay me the absolute top dollar. he would likely want to stay here and settle in for a multi-year run, so the bills might not have to shell out ridiculous guaranteed money to keep him
really super nice that it appears the bills finally fell into something with the qb position. that really helps take the immediate urgency out of the equation so they dont have to get into that mistake-prone fire drill to try to find somebody who doesnt suck to play for you (cough jets cough). he should be able to give them at least a couple years to good production, so the bills can be patient about developing the guys behind him
One set of rules for all in the beloved community
Historian (10-30-2014)
No.
That contract had a $3M Signing Bonus which is his regardless if he goes.
That was the price just to get him here.
We paid him $5.5 to come here.
If he was to opt out, he would be walking away from the Base and Roster Bonus total of another $5.5M.
I gather we gave him the opt out so if he did not start here this year, he could opt out to try to start elsewhere next year.
I would make no evaluation on Orton until after the season is over.
If he is going to be our starter next year, then we will need to pay him starters money which is much more than $5.5M.
starrymessenger (10-30-2014),ublinkwescore (10-29-2014),YardRat (10-30-2014)
Orton has a good thing going with the Bills. If he stays, he's all but guaranteed to be the starter next season. Enough with the "EJ is the future" nonsense. He couldn't figure it out in college, he's not figuring it out in the NFL.
Right now, I'd take Orton next season over any FA QB who may come available.
Four games boys and they haven't been all that pretty even though we love the result. Orton could easily be 1-3 rather than 3-1. Here's hoping he strings it out. Odds are he won't.
The Bills 95% confidence interval (back of the envelope calculation) for wins is now 7-10. Upside, they might sneak into the playoffs. That's all I am hoping for. I can't stand another year watching from the sidelines.
Lehner's history. He just doesn't know it yet.
Meathead (10-30-2014)
My mistake, I thought it was the Bills option.
All the more reason for the Bills to resign him after this season if he continues to play well.
Last edited by better days; 10-30-2014 at 12:14 AM.
Orton is 31 and could conceivably start for 3 to 5 years easily.
That being said I think we have some talent on the OL they just are very young and need to get better as the season goes on
Whatever keeps EJ on the bench shouldn't have a price tag
Oh no!...We suck again!
Agree.
The problem I have (nice problem), is that I really don't think that with these young players on O and the O-line such as it is, Peyton Manning or Tom Brady would have played any better than Orton has. Maybe worse.
That suggests to me that he's on a hot streak, meaning that before making a decision to offer him a better/longer contract we should wait till we have a better idea of just what his right cruising altitude actually is.
Of course it's not impossible either that he's a late bloomer and that he's suddenly in the top half of starting QBs in this league. Not impossible, but probably unlikely. It should be fun to see going forward.
In the meantime I've certainly enjoyed all the big time throws.
I think Kyle has done a great job, and want to see him as the Bills QB. I think he's just what they need. That being said, the bolded part of your post is ridiculous to even think.
Which is a perfect time frame with which to groom a successor, IMO.
casdhf (10-30-2014)
i'd like to think that orton would give the bills a break and sign with us if money and terms are even. i would hope that he realized our coaches saw his potential quickly, switched to him, let him be a starter and want him as a starter (if that's how the season plays out).
i'm not asking orton to take a buffalo discount, i'm just hoping he doesn't want bigger city life if he gets an equal offer for another team.
but like i've said, i think it's worth it for both parties to simply say they like what's happening so far, and talk at the end of the season. i think i heard orton's option is to be exercised the week before the SB. gives us a few weeks to be proactive about giving him a contract to think about before the option.
Don't do it now like they did with Dickless Jauron at 5-1 in 2008 and Fitz at 5-2 in 2011. Wait until the season is over and see were this goes....
Well we can agree to disagree.
i didn't say or intend that Orton was in the same class as those guys. I'm not crazy.
Only that over the last four games I doubt that with this O, this OC calling plays and behind this line either of those guys would have played any better or made more big time throws.
The point was that he may be playing now at a higher level than he is capable of sustaining.
If he can continue at this pace he will be legit as a NFL starter and perhaps in the top half.
His career suggests that's not where he belongs but maybe with the changes in the game favoring the pass and protecting the QB, the greater emphasis on QB smarts and preparation (Orton's long suit) etc...he can outperform his career averages, possibly by a lot.
And maybe he's a late bloomer like Gannon, Morten, Trent Green etc capable of his best play in his mid 30s.
weve got eight more games to try and figure that out.
better days (10-30-2014)
This thread is sooo Billsish...
We've got a QB playing really well and people want to get rid of him because he's not a hall of famer... We did this with Flutie, Bledsoe, and apparently some still haven't learned...
This baffles me. Some people were willing to give EJ years and all Ortons done is win and people want him replaced. We can get 5 good years out of Orton so let's lock him up and during this tenure a good QB will slide to us in the draft, take him and develop him, but Orton needs to stay.
IlluminatusUIUC (10-30-2014)
Agree.
Unless he craps out (which I don't expect) come year end he'll pretty much be in the drivers seat.
And he looks to be a great guy to help groom the next man up.
Do you go by the same name on the BBMB?
I must have missed those posts.
WHO wants Orton replaced?
The only discussion I have seen in this thread is if/when Orton should be offered a longer contract.
I think everyone wants him on the team next year.
I don't want to boot him, but I also don't want to throw a massive contract at a good month of play. We're still paying off the last time we did that.
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