Amazing fumble stats on the Cheaters

[BuffaloRedleg]

Friends, we live in an amazing time.

[Strongman]

Advanced NFL Stats guys are now picking up on the post 2007 Patriots** fumble correlation with their own analysis.

https://twitter.com/Adv_NFL_Stats/st...22164397182976

[coastal]

Wow

[Discotrish]

Depressingly, the Bills have been third WORST in number of carries per fumble lost category. No doubt the weather has something to do with that, the dome teams rank pretty well. And the Patriots of course are much better than the dome teams when it comes to hanging onto the ball. Through amazing statistical coincidence of course!

Thanks to Strongman for highlighting this interesting info!



Patti

[Strongman]

Depressingly, the Bills have been third WORST in number of carries per fumble lost category. No doubt the weather has something to do with that, the dome teams rank pretty well. And the Patriots of course are much better than the dome teams when it comes to hanging onto the ball. Through amazing statistical coincidence of course!

Thanks to Strongman for highlighting this interesting info!
Patti

I first saw this information on a Jets' Forum. If someone is going to find dirt on the Patriots**, that's the first place to look.

As a science geek, the statistics really jumped out at me. I was also looking for something that happened right around 2007 when Brady went from being a good QB, to suddenly becoming talked about as one of the best QBs of all time.

I think we are going to find that playing with a slightly deflated ball has a synergistic effect. First off, turnovers correlate highly with winning and running the ball effectively and taking time off the clock is also advantageous. It's probably easier for Brady to throw those quick passes more accurately. Once you get a lead on an opponent, they have to rely on passing more so you can adjust your defense to that. You can even use cheaper players who suddenly become more effective and spend more money on key players, and on and on...

What surprises me most is how low tech it is. It's brilliant, but cheating.

[Mr. Pink]

Manning obviously didn't use a deflated ball. His throws this year have been awful.

Roethlisburger & Rodgers don't need an underinflated ball because they both have big enough hands to get a good grip on the ball, unlike Brady.

Roethlisberger had more fumbles on the year than Brady and Manning did...he plays pretty reckless though and his line doesn't always do him any favors but Leveon Bell had 373 touches on the year 0 fumbles. The Steelers fumbled 17 times total on the year. Ben also had the same INT rate as Brady. Cheating?

Here's the funny thing...teams that throw a lot more than they run, tend to fumble less.

Steelers 612 passes, 423 runs, 17 fumbles. Patriots 609 passes, 438 runs, 16 fumbles. Broncos 607 passes, 443 runs, 17 fumbles. Shocking stuff.

But I know it's more fun to just hate on the Patriots and think they're cheating to get a leg up on the league especially from a Bills fan perspective since they've owned the Bills for over the past decade. I wonder if fans in the 70s thought the Dolphins were cheating too.

[Strongman]

Roethlisberger had more fumbles on the year than Brady and Manning did...he plays pretty reckless though and his line doesn't always do him any favors but Leveon Bell had 373 touches on the year 0 fumbles. The Steelers fumbled 17 times total on the year. Ben also had the same INT rate as Brady. Cheating?

Here's the funny thing...teams that throw a lot more than they run, tend to fumble less.

Steelers 612 passes, 423 runs, 17 fumbles. Patriots 609 passes, 438 runs, 16 fumbles. Broncos 607 passes, 443 runs, 17 fumbles. Shocking stuff.

But I know it's more fun to just hate on the Patriots and think they're cheating to get a leg up on the league especially from a Bills fan perspective since they've owned the Bills for over the past decade. I wonder if fans in the 70s thought the Dolphins were cheating too.

Again, it's the degree of how little they fumble which is probably 4-5 SDs from the mean. In my job, when something is 3SD from the mean, we stop and investigate to find out what's wrong.



And how come we don't see this with them before 2007 when the rule was changed to allow away teams to use their own game balls?

[GvilleBills]

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a response from Goodell.
No WiFi signal under Kraft's desk.

[better days]

How does HGH help you hold on to the ball?

HGH or Human Growth Hormone, helps an OLD body behave like a YOUNG body.

[Meathead]

tell me why that isnt the smoking gun right there

tell me why congress shouldnt be starting proceedings to go after the nfl for the sham product theyve allowed the cheaters to put out for the last seven years

[sudzy]

Again, it's the degree of how little they fumble which is probably 4-5 SDs from the mean. In my job, when something is 3SD from the mean, we stop and investigate to find out what's wrong.



A

Buffalo must be over inflating their balls.

[Strongman]

Buffalo must be over inflating their balls.

No, we have the fumbling machine known as CJ Spiller.

[harmonkoz]

HGH or Human Growth Hormone, helps an OLD body behave like a YOUNG body.

Yes I know that, what I was questioning was his premise that the deflated footballs had only been going on this year. He seemed to point out that HGH was in use the previous years (which it probably was). However these stats point to the Patriots fumbling, or lack thereof for a much longer time period. That is what I was questioning. How does HGH help you hold on to the football? It doesn't.

[sudzy]

How does HGH help you hold on to the football? It doesn't.

A bigger, stronger body could handle a hit better without fumbling. That goes without saying. But, NE wasn't the only team using HGH. So that would not explain the gap between them and everyone else. Under inflated balls might.

[coastal]

tell me why that isnt the smoking gun right there

tell me why congress shouldnt be starting proceedings to go after the nfl for the sham product theyve allowed the cheaters to put out for the last seven years

if something like this doesn't happen.. or the NFL doesn't clamp down...

im done.

[Strongman]

tell me why that isnt the smoking gun right there

tell me why congress shouldnt be starting proceedings to go after the nfl for the sham product theyve allowed the cheaters to put out for the last seven years

It is a smoking gun, but I also think the other chart makes it more clear something dramatic changed with the Patriots** after the rule change.

If this doesn't get resolved fairly quickly, I won't be surprised to see Congress look into it.

[Strongman]

The guys over at Advanced NFL Statistics looked at the work Warren Sharp did regarding the Patriots** lack of fumbles. They pretty much agreed with his assessment that the Patriots** seem to fumble a lot less than other teams. He didn't conclude if it was due to coaching or having an unfair advantage. He did notice something had changed in 2007. Anyhow, it's worth a read.

http://alturl.com/umq6s

[sudzy]

If this doesn't get resolved fairly quickly, I won't be surprised to see Congress look into it.

Yes, the Pats cheated and Belichick should be strung up for this. But, is it wrong for me to want Congress to focus on more important stuff like, the economy, terrorism, immigration?

[Meathead]

while this is of course only entertainment, its still a huge business in america with unprecedented enormous advantages in the market courtesy of congress. ppl (some ppl anyway) expect their major sports entertainment to be fair and real, at least as real as something like football can get

if the nfl is going to allow it to be turned into a three ring vaudeville act where cheating is essentially tolerated like it was the wwf then congress has an obligation to reset the rules on those enormous financial advantages they give to the nfl

[harmonkoz]

while this is of course only entertainment, its still a huge business in america with unprecedented enormous advantages in the market courtesy of congress. ppl (some ppl anyway) expect their major sports entertainment to be fair and real, at least as real as something like football can get

if the nfl is going to allow it to be turned into a three ring vaudeville act where cheating is essentially tolerated like it was the wwf then congress has an obligation to reset the rules on those enormous financial advantages they give to the nfl

I am of the mind that they should not get any breaks. Let it stand on it's own merit. But I have that opinion of just about any type of business.