Amazing fumble stats on the Cheaters

[Strongman]

A soft football helps with fumbles also.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=2932

Looks like they have been at for awhile. Maybe a little at first, but have gotten bolder with it as the years went on.

[harmonkoz]

How anyone can look at these stats and think everything is ok is beyond me. This basically proves this has been going on for quite some time. The NFL better come down on them, and come down ***** hard.

You can't tell me Belicheat did not realize or see his team does not fumble the ball.

[Strongman]

How anyone can look at these stats and think everything is ok is beyond me. This basically proves this has been going on for quite some time. The NFL better come down on them, and come down ***** hard.

You can't tell me Belicheat did not realize or see his team does not fumble the ball.

It's not proof, but it is strong evidence they are cheating.

In this age of team parity, I don't think you can be this good year in and year out. I don't buy the "Belichick is a great coach" Pat fans are saying because you can only coach someone to hold a football in so many ways. There's been no revolutionary breakthrough in how to hold a football.

They are *probably* using tampered balls.

[Strongman]

I guess their servers crashed because of all the traffic they are getting. Here it is:

The New England Patriots Prevention of Fumbles is Nearly Impossible
Posted on January 22, 2015
Yesterday I investigated whether or not the New England Patriots outperform expectations in bad weather. I had several recommendations to look at home and road data, as opposed to just home data. Mulling whether or not to undertake that further (time consuming) analysis, I watched this video:


I immediately noticed something that cannot be overlooked: the issue with ball security and fumbles. Then I remembered this remarkable fact:

The 2014 Patriots were just the 3rd team in the last 25 years to never have lost a fumble at home! The biggest difference between the Patriots and the other 2 teams who did it was that New England ran between 150 and 200 MORE plays this year than those teams did in the years they had zero home fumbles, making the Patriots stand alone in this unique statistic.

Based on the desire to incorporate full season data (not just home games, as a team theoretically bring “doctored footballs” with them on the road) I performed the following analysis:

I looked at the last 5 years of data (since 2010) and examined TOTAL FUMBLES in all games (as well as fumbles/game) but more importantly, TOTAL OFFENSIVE PLAYS RUN. Thus, we can to determine average PLAYS per FUMBLE, a much more valuable statistic. The results are displayed in the chart below. Keep in mind, this is for all games since 2010, regardless of indoors, outdoors, weather, site, etc. EVERYTHING.

(click to enlarge)

One can CLEARLY SEE the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays (passes+rushes+sacks) per fumble. The league average is 105 plays/fumble. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.

I spoke with a data scientist who I know from work on the NFLproject.com website, and sent him the data. He said:

Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances”.

Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win. Which in other words, it’s very unlikely that it’s a coincidence.

I actually went back and researched 5 year periods for the entire NFL over the last 25 years. The Patriots ratio of 187 plays to 1 fumble is the BEST of ANY team in the NFL for ANY 5 year span of time over the last 25 years. Not was it just the best, it wasn’t close:

2010-2014 Patriots: 187 plays/fumble
2009-2013 Patriots: 156 plays/fumble
2006-2010 Colts: 156 plays/fumble
2005-2009 Colts: 153 plays/fumble
2007-2011 Patriots: 149 plays/fumble
2008-2012 Patriots: 148 plays/fumble
2010-2014 Texans: 140 plays/fumble
2004-2008 Colts: 139 plays/fumble
2006-2010 Jets: 135 plays/fumble
1999-2003 Chiefs: 134 plays/fumble
There are a few key takeaways. First and foremost, the 187 plays/fumble dwarfs even the rest of the best seasons the last 25 years. Second, the Patriots have been at the top of the NFL since 2007.

Ironically, as my study yesterday showed, the Patriots performance in wet weather home games mysteriously turned ridiculous starting in 2007. In 2006, they went 0-2. From 2007 onward, they went 14-1.

The next obvious question becomes, where were the Patriots in this statistic pre-2007? Take a look:

(click to enlarge)

As you can see, the Patriots won their Super Bowls having a below average rate of fumbles lost given today’s average of 105 plays/game. But in 2007, something happened to propel them to a much better rate (you’ll remember, that just so happened to be the same year they went 16-0 in the regular season). But even looking at these numbers, its clear how insane the 187 number is: they are almost running 100 MORE plays without a single fumble as compared to the 2002-2006 period when they won 2 of their 3 Super Bowls.

To further illustrate how these numbers are astonishing, the below graphics lay out clearly how far off the Patriots are from the rest of the league. Its evident to the eye how far removed they are from the norm. Whether we look at a histogram laying it out, where the Patriots and their 187 plays/fumble is far from the “bell shaped curve”:

(click to enlarge)

or the same chart as above, this time displaying color bands as we move away from the 105 plays/fumble average. You can see the darker red band contains all teams but the bottom 3 and the top 3, and that the bottom 3 are very close to the darker red band. Meanwhile, the Patriots are really in a league of their own:

(click to enlarge)

Could the Patriots be so good that they just defy the numbers? As my friend theorized: Perhaps they’ve invented a revolutionary in-house way to protect the ball, or perhaps they’ve intentionally stocked their skill positions with players who don’t have a propensity to fumble. Or perhaps still, they call plays which intentionally result in a lower percentage of fumbles. Or maybe its just that they play with deflated footballs on offense. It could be any combination of the above.

But regardless of what, specifically, is causing these numbers, the fact remains: this is an extremely abnormal occurrence and is NOT simply random fluctuation.

_____________________________________

UPDATE: It was suggested that I look at ALL fumbles, not just fumbles lost. With that said, let’s look there:

First, it should be noted (as the tables above show) that teams playing indoors fumble the ball less frequently. Reasons are many, foremost the ball won’t be wet from precipitation, damp from late night condensation, and a variety of other reasons. Which is why, if you look at the very first chart I posted above, you’ll see the teams who fumble the MOST/play are generally colder weather teams who play outdoors (PHI, DEN, BUF, PIT, WAS, NYG, KC, NYJ). Whereas at the other end of the spectrum, aside from the Patriots in their own world, are HOU, ATL and NO, all dome teams.

The below graphic looks at ALL fumbles over 5 year periods the last 25 years. I planned to cut this off at JUST the top 10 teams, but all we would have seen were the Patriots and dome teams. Top 15 would have accomplished the same. So I had to expand to the top 25 team periods. As you can see, of the top 25 team-periods, 17 are dome teams, including 11 of the top 15. First, let’s look at the chart, then we’ll look at comparisons to average:

(click to enlarge)

As is apparent, the Patriots are the only outdoor NFL team the last 25 years to average 70 plays/fumble or better, and they did it from 2007-2014 (four, five year periods). Its simply uncanny, as the statistics above similarly showed.

Averages:

Over the last 25 years, indoor teams averaged 43 plays/fumble (in all games they played that season, regardless of site, understanding that half their games would be played indoor sans-weather).
Since 2000, they improved to 46 plays/fumble.
Over the last 25 years, outdoor teams averaged 41 plays/fumble.
Since 2000, they improved to 43 plays/fumble.
The Patriots averaged 73 plays/fumble the past 5 years, almost 70% better than the 43 plays/fumble that outdoor teams averaged since 2000.

Next, lets look only at the current 5 year period:

The league average plays per fumble from 2010 thru 2014 was 50 plays/fumble.

For indoor teams, the average was 55 plays/fumble.
For outdoor teams, excluding the Patriots, the average was 46 plays/fumble (9 fewer).
The Patriots averaged 73 plays/fumble, almost 60% MORE than outdoor teams, and almost 50% MORE than the league average the past 5 years.

(click to enlarge)

Since we now can clearly in the data, both near term and long term, that dome-based teams (who play at least 8 games out of the elements) have an advantage in the fumble department, we can exclude them from comparisons to the Patriots.

If we do, I can produce a chart identical to the one at the very top which looked ONLY at fumbles lost. This one looks at ALL fumbles, whether lost or recovered. I think the point still remains:

(click to enlarge)

If this chart looks nearly identical, it should. The Patriots are so “off the map” when it comes to either fumbles or only fumbles lost. As mentioned earlier: this is an extremely abnormal occurrence and is NOT simply random fluctuation.

[Strongman]

If you don't believe it. There's a very easy way to test it... Look at RBs that have left New England. If their fumble rate suddenly jumps up after leaving NE, then I would say it's because of the footballs they used.

Here's one... BenJarvus Green-Ellis' stats at New England and afterwards. What happens?

http://www.nfl.com/player/benjarvusg...29/careerstats

He mysteriously doesn't fumble with the Patriots, but suddenly fumbles with the Bengals...

[coastal]

Wow... very curious that the site is down.

[harmonkoz]

The site is up, it was returning a database connection error. More than likely they were not prepared for the amount of traffic they were going to get.

[Strongman]

Another way the tampered ball hypothesis can be tested...

In 2006, Brady and Manning lobbied the NFL Rules Committee to allow QBs to bring their footballs to away games (before this, the home team su0lied the footballs). Because of this, we can compare fumbles of home vs. away games before and after 2007 to see if there is a difference.

[YardRat]

If you don't believe it. There's a very easy way to test it... Look at RBs that have left New England. If their fumble rate suddenly jumps up after leaving NE, then I would say it's because of the footballs they used.

Here's one... BenJarvus Green-Ellis' stats at New England and afterwards. What happens?

http://www.nfl.com/player/benjarvusg...29/careerstats

He mysteriously doesn't fumble with the Patriots, but suddenly fumbles with the Bengals...

As I was reading through this and the article I was thinking that would be another good data set to compile.

This a huge deal, especially when compounded with all of the other transgressions, if there really is anything of substance behind the numbers. Hell, just one game with deflated balls against the Chiefs and this team may have made the playoffs.

[harmonkoz]

Searching for 'sharpfootball' on twitter this morning. It appears this getting some traction. Wgr has picked it up.

[Strongman]

As I was reading through this and the article I was thinking that would be another good data set to compile.

This a huge deal, especially when compounded with all of the other transgressions, if there really is anything of substance behind the numbers. Hell, just one game with deflated balls against the Chiefs and this team may have made the playoffs.

Yes, and what makes this nice is it's testable.

In 2006, Manning and Brady lobbied the NFL to allow QBs to bring and use their footballs at away games. In 2007, Brady went from being a good QB to an amazing QB. I think this is because he was now using his doctored footballs at both AND away games. Previous to this, I'm guessing he just used them at homes games.

Before 2007, we should test Brady's passing stats and the teams fumbles to see if there is a difference between away and home games. If there is a big difference then it indicates he had some advantage (doctored footballs).

There's a few more things I think we can come up with as well.

I think this is really big.

[Historian]

Buffalo Bills: 10 plays/fumble

[Joe Fo Sho]

Buffalo Bills: 10 plays/fumble

THIS IS ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND NEW ENGLAND ONLY! DON'T LOSE FOCUS!!!

[imbondz]

Buffalo Bills: 10 plays/fumble

at least we can be sure we don't doctor the footballs. Or if we do we suck at that too.

[Strongman]

Yes, and what makes this nice is it's testable.

In 2006, Manning and Brady lobbied the NFL to allow QBs to bring and use their footballs at away games. In 2007, Brady went from being a good QB to an amazing QB. I think this is because he was now using his doctored footballs at both AND away games. Previous to this, I'm guessing he just used them at homes games.

Before 2007, we should test Brady's passing stats and the teams fumbles to see if there is a difference between away and home games. If there is a big difference then it indicates he had some advantage (doctored footballs).

There's a few more things I think we can come up with as well.

I think this is really big.

One thought I had after posting the above is. There is probably a Spygate effect that might make comparisons between the pre-Spygate and post-Spygate era which might make it difficult to isolate some trends.

[Joe Fo Sho]

In 2006, Manning and Brady lobbied the NFL to allow QBs to bring and use their footballs at away games. In 2007, Brady went from being a good QB to an amazing QB. I think this is because he was now using his doctored footballs at both AND away games. Previous to this, I'm guessing he just used them at homes games.

I would almost doubt that he deflated the balls previous to this new rule that he lobbied for. If that were the case, then the away team would have deflated balls too, which wouldn't yield an advantage. Unless somehow they were able to keep the 12 of their balls separate from the 12 of their opponents. I guess they could do that, if any team could it would be the Deflatriots.

[Strongman]

I would almost doubt that he deflated the balls previous to this new rule that he lobbied for. If that were the case, then the away team would have deflated balls too, which wouldn't yield an advantage. Unless somehow they were able to keep the 12 of their balls separate from the 12 of their opponents. I guess they could do that, if any team could it would be the Deflatriots.

That's a REALLY good point. You are probably right that they wouldn't chance that.

So basically it is starting to look like their wins are the result from changing from one cheating system up to 2006 (Spygate) to another in 2007 and beyond (Deflategate).

[Joe Fo Sho]

That's a REALLY good point. You are probably right that they wouldn't chance that.

So basically it is starting to look like their wins are the result from changing from one cheating system up to 2006 (Spygate) to another in 2007 and beyond (Deflategate).

Tom Brady

2006 Stats - 3529 YDS 24 TDS 12 INTS
2007 Stats - 4806 YDS 50 TDS 8 INTS


**** this guy so much.

[trapezeus]

when you have outliers like this and their times they beat the spread when playing at home, it usually means they are doing something no one else is doing.

What is so pathetic to me is that "journalists" aren't writing these stories. it's bloggers. and these numbers take away the "they hate us because they ain't us" defense by patriot fans. these are damning numbers that require explanation. and the "journalist" are writing puff pieces and letting belichick and brady off the hook with simple press conferences without items like these to say, "these are the figures, how can you explain it. it can't be blind luck. do you think under inflating the balls gives you a big advantage"

[trapezeus]

one other point, remember that one of those fumbles last year was the pats running back just letting go of the ball because he was making a cut against the bills. and he got benched.