Quick question about tanking.
Coming in last means only a 20% chance of picking first, correct?
Because from reading that board it sounds like we need to finish last to get McDavid. But this is no sure thing. Imagine if we finish last and Arizona wins the lottery. That would suck.
Or am I wrong about the probability?
Of course I agree, a 20% chance is better than a 15% chance. But it is no sure thing. Still only 1 out of 5.
All your odds are correct. We must finish last or risk falling out of the top 2 & there's an 80% chance we won't get the top pick, that's the only way to look at it.
Finishing last means an 80% chance of getting Eichel.
The only reason this whole race has any significance is because it seems as if there are TWO generational talents in the draft. Otherwise, neither side would be very vocal.
Eichel and McDavid are going to Toronto, so it doesn't even matter.
...Rob
The American Dream isn't an SUV and a house in the suburbs;
it's Don't Tread On Me.
Both? Impressive
Btw even if we finish last, our chance of getting McDavid is 0% because the NHL is going to rig the lottery.
They will use McDavid to save some fledgling team like Carolina or Arizona, or send him to Toronto to re-energize the league's largest fan base.
coastal (03-24-2015)
Or to punish the only team that planned a 2 year tank.Originally Posted by OpIv37
Cold envelope?
The NHL uses a ping pong ball lottery, right? How do you rig that?
Billszone 2013 Prediction Contest winner!
Who knows? I watched the lottery show last year and they had counted down from the lowest pick to the highest pick by removing numbered cards with the team logo behind it. Translation: the actual lottery was done OFF the air, away from the prying eyes of the general public. So, they could have done it legit or Bettman could have made it up. We have no idea.
coastal (03-24-2015),Skooby (03-24-2015),WagonCircler (03-24-2015)
You can't.
Same low self-esteem Buffalo sports fan paranoia.
Finishing last means an 100% chance of getting Eichel if they want him
I heard on WGR that they DON'T use a ping pong ball lottery. I heard it was some computer program that has "randomness" built into it.
They will probably use this:
http://nhllotterysimulator.com/
not necessarily
What if by chance Boston doesn't make the playoffs and wins the lottery? Do they take McDavid and not the hometown hero?
This article is a few years old, but it claims they did then: http://www.hockeywilderness.com/2012...e-lottery-work
If they are in fact using a PC simulation then that is saddening.Think "Powerball." A bunch of ping pong balls go in a big hopper, they spin it, and one is selected as the winner.
however they do it, they do it in secret
Well we have an organization with a vested interest in a certain outcome using a secretive process to produce a "random" result that frequently results in low probability outcomes that so happen to align closely with those vested interests.
Is that smoking gun proof that they rig it? Of course not, but it's certainly unusual enough that questioning it isn't paranoia.
coastal (03-25-2015)
Why is there a 100% chance to get the second pick if we finish last? Is only the first pick randomly chosen or are all teams in the lottery randomly chosen?
Because then we could finish 8th or something like that, right?
Or is only the first pick randomly and the the worst remaining team picks next?
The NHL has established that the 30th place team has a 20% chance of getting the 1st overall pick and if they don't get it they automatically get the 2nd overall pick
Skooby (03-25-2015)
If you finish 30th & don't hit the draft lottery #1, the worst case scenario is you lose one spot (29th) which is the second pick in the draft. You can't lose more than one position.
Last edited by Skooby; 03-25-2015 at 05:06 AM.
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