Are You Having a Draft Lottery Party on Saturday?

[Dr. Lecter]

Once again, the NHL draft lottery is a closed process that often has supposedly "random" outcomes that are both statistically unlikely and in the best financial interest of the league. It's not a smoking gun but there is reasonable cause for suspicion.

All individual outcomes are statistically unlikely with the way the rules are. The Sabres winning is statistically unlikely.

[Skooby]

All individual outcomes are statistically unlikely with the way the rules are. The Sabres winning is statistically unlikely.

Our 1 in 5 chance is the highest single team chance by 50%.

[SpikedLemonade]

Terry loves fracking
Sabres tanking and slacking
Buffalo pride lacking

[OpIv37]

All individual outcomes are statistically unlikely with the way the rules are. The Sabres winning is statistically unlikely.

There are varying degrees of "statistically unlikely" and some outcomes, while still unlikely in the overall sense, are have a higher chance of occurring than others. Yet, the outcomes with the lowest probability seem to occur far more often than they would in a truly random process...

Of all people, I shouldn't have to explain this to you.

[WagonCircler]

All individual outcomes are statistically unlikely with the way the rules are. The Sabres winning is statistically unlikely.

That's the problem with having a party. Who wants to go to a party where there's an 80% chance that the outcome will be disappointing? Not that getting Eichel would be a disappointment, but drafting second is already guaranteed. The only reason to watch is the hope that we'd come away with McDavid.

[OpIv37]

You can't actually believe that. How in any way would it be beneficial to the league to grant the 1st pick to Edmonton 3 times in a row? Hockey is already popular in Canada. They didn't need to jump start the game in Emonton of all places. No way having 3 X 1's go to Emonton is the best financial desicion for the league. If they wanted the top players to go to the southern teams it would have been happening all along.

I understand that it is closed which can cause suspicion but they are drawing 1 ball. How can they count down from 15 to 1 with everyone knowing the outcome? You would be ruining the draft special.

Who says everyone needs to know the outcome? Last year the specials consisted of the two guys on the air lifting up cardboard squares to reveal the team in that slot. They wouldn't need to know ahead of time: only the person who put the cards with the team logos behind them would have to know.

And btw, the lottery is done behind the scenes before the special airs- it doesn't occur on the air. So whether it's rigged or not, the results are known before the special is filmed.

[Dr. Lecter]

There are varying degrees of "statistically unlikely" and some outcomes, while still unlikely in the overall sense, are have a higher chance of occurring than others. Yet, the outcomes with the lowest probability seem to occur far more often than they would in a truly random process...

Of all people, I shouldn't have to explain this to you.

That's because that's not true. Your perception of this really isn't reality.


Please point out to me when the outcomes with the lowest probability occurred.

2014 - Florida wins the lottery, 2nd best odds
2013 - Colorado wins the lottery, 2nd best odds
2012 - Edmomton wins, 2nd best odds
2011 - New Jersey wins, moves from 8th to 4th
2010 - Edmonton wins, was already picking 1st
2009 - Islanders win, were already picking 1st
2008 - Tampa wins, was already picking 1st
2007 - Chicago wins, move up to 1st from 5th
2006 - Blues win, were already picking first
2005 - Pittsburgh wins "Special lottery (due to cancelled season" They were one of the teams with the highest odds of winning
2004 - Washington wins, moves up from 3rd
2003 - Florida wins, moves up from 4th to 1st
2002 - Florida wins, moves up from 3rd to 1st
2001 - Atlanta wins, moves up from 3rd to 1st
2000 - Islanders win, move up from 5th to 1st
1999 - Chicago wins, moves up to 4th from 8th
1998 - San Jose wins, was already last
1997 - Boston wins, were already picking 1st
1996 - Ottawa wins, were already picking 1st
1995 - Kings win, move from 7th to 3rd

[Dr. Lecter]

Who says everyone needs to know the outcome? Last year the specials consisted of the two guys on the air lifting up cardboard squares to reveal the team in that slot. They wouldn't need to know ahead of time: only the person who put the cards with the team logos behind them would have to know.

And btw, the lottery is done behind the scenes before the special airs- it doesn't occur on the air. So whether it's rigged or not, the results are known before the special is filmed.

Each team has a witness watching it too.

[SpikedLemonade]

Who says everyone needs to know the outcome? Last year the specials consisted of the two guys on the air lifting up cardboard squares to reveal the team in that slot. They wouldn't need to know ahead of time: only the person who put the cards with the team logos behind them would have to know.

And btw, the lottery is done behind the scenes before the special airs- it doesn't occur on the air. So whether it's rigged or not, the results are known before the special is filmed.

Wait a minute Mr. Buffalo Low Self-esteem.

Yes, the lottery is taped, but the actual lottery is taped in front of the GMs who have a stake in it earlier in the day. I doubt they are in on this conspiracy.

It is my understanding that today the NHL will post on its website which 200 of the 1,000 4 number (some two digit numbers) sequences belong to the Sabres (and which 10 belong to the Bruins for example).

Tomorrow afternoon, they will use a lottery ball system to draw for balls that contain numbers from 1 to 14 and in which sequence.

That sequence is matched up to the team's numbers to see which team has that sequence.

Tomorrow evening they will show the ball lottery drawing and which team drew the #1 overall pick.

I can't see how they can cheat the Sabres with that transparent process.

[mightysimi]

Who says everyone needs to know the outcome? Last year the specials consisted of the two guys on the air lifting up cardboard squares to reveal the team in that slot. They wouldn't need to know ahead of time: only the person who put the cards with the team logos behind them would have to know.

And btw, the lottery is done behind the scenes before the special airs- it doesn't occur on the air. So whether it's rigged or not, the results are known before the special is filmed.

That's what I'm saying if they do it on air, how do they keep what ball or envelope or however they do it a secret? They won't be able to.

[mightysimi]

HOW DO I KNOW IT'S NOT RIGGED? The number-drawing process is supervised by accounting firm Ernst & Young.
The drawing of numbers from the lottery machine will be filmed and released publicly on Sportsnet.ca and NHL.com after the results are announced.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/n...el-number-one/

[mightysimi]

I ran the simulator down in the link above and you guys won 5 out of 20 times.

[OpIv37]

Wait a minute Mr. Buffalo Low Self-esteem.

Yes, the lottery is taped, but the actual lottery is taped in front of the GMs who have a stake in it earlier in the day. I doubt they are in on this conspiracy.

It is my understanding that today the NHL will post on its website which 200 of the 1,000 4 number (some two digit numbers) sequences belong to the Sabres (and which 10 belong to the Bruins for example).

Tomorrow afternoon, they will use a lottery ball system to draw for balls that contain numbers from 1 to 14 and in which sequence.

That sequence is matched up to the team's numbers to see which team has that sequence.

Tomorrow evening they will show the ball lottery drawing and which team drew the #1 overall pick.

I can't see how they can cheat the Sabres with that transparent process.

Once again, it's not about the Sabres. It's about the league making money.

[mightysimi]

If it's about maximizing McDavid's star power, he ends up in Toronto.

[SpikedLemonade]

If it's about maximizing McDavid's star power, he ends up in Toronto.

Yup.

[DetDannyWilliams]

A ride in Mr. Peabody's Way-Back Machine indicates:

..."In 1970, two new franchises were awarded in the NHL — the Buffalo Sabres and the Vancouver Canucks. It was a foregone conclusion that Perrault would be the first selection in the 1970 Entry Draft. The two new teams took part in a roulette wheel spin to determine who would get the first pick. Ultimately, the Canucks were allocated numbers 1-10 on the wheel, while the Sabres had 11-20. When league president Clarence Campbell spun the wheel, he initially thought the pointer landed on 1 and started to congratulate the Vancouver delegation. However, Sabres coach/general manager Punch Imlach asked Campbell to check again. As it turned out, the pointer was on 11."...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilbert_Perreault

[Dr. Lecter]

Once again, it's not about the Sabres. It's about the league making money.

And please show us where they did this in the past.

I posted all the results.

So tell us where it happened when the odds weren't there.

The only possible time was Chicago, but Kane wasn't a consensus guy at the time so that doesn't wash.

[OpIv37]

And please show us where they did this in the past.

I posted all the results.

So tell us where it happened when the odds weren't there.

The only possible time was Chicago, but Kane wasn't a consensus guy at the time so that doesn't wash.

Pittsburgh in the "special" lottery, Ovechkin to Washington (I can personally attest to how empty that arena was before him). Florida last year.

[JATMtheJATM]

ekblad isnt a franchise saving guy. Not many D-men sell tickets. and florida isnt going to benefit in that way from him.

[Dr. Lecter]

Pittsburgh in the "special" lottery, Ovechkin to Washington (I can personally attest to how empty that arena was before him). Florida last year.

Pittsburgh had the best odds to win that lottery. So you're wrong on that one. Who was supposed to win? A team with lower odds?

Washington was second that year. Hardly going against all odds.

Why Florida last year? They were second and picked a guy that wasn't a consensus top pick.

Come on. You had a perception that wasn't based on reality. The facts don't back your point.