QB Bryce Petty on the Bills radar. Do they pick him at #50?

[blackonyx89]

What do you think? He's 24 and is a project like EJ. If EJ can't beat him out at camp if they select him, then it's possibly back to square one with an "older" QB learning the ropes. Takes? http://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bill...yce_petty.html.

[emoulds80]

not really ideal imo. i dont think ej will make it, but he needs another shot this year. thats part of the risk of drafting a qb high, you actually have to find out if the guy can play, they brought in taylor for a reason with his contract.

[Jry44]

Do not believe jack **** of what you're reading right now regarding team interests. I think the Bills are going BPA since this draft is so damn weak.

It sucks because it is the off season, but the best thing to do is to ignore reading mock drafts, and do not buy in to any rumors that you're hearing right now because mock drafts are a guess for entertainment purposes, and rumors are smokescreens. Just relax until the draft begins on Thursday, and sit back and enjoy....

[Buckets]

not really ideal imo. i dont think ej will make it, but he needs another shot this year. thats part of the risk of drafting a qb high, you actually have to find out if the guy can play, they brought in taylor for a reason with his contract.

FL State fans and alumni said this for three years, nothing ever got better.

[kingJofNYC]

Well seeing as how they picked a scrub like EJ in the first, drafting an equally poor QB in the 2nd isn't that far of a stretch.

Bills do stupid ****, so expect something stupid.

[MillsapsBillsFan]

FL State fans and alumni said this for three years, nothing ever got better.

I'm a FSU fan and I was not really happy when they took EJ originally, He was never a great QB at FSU and I didnt really think he would suddenly grow into one. He has all the physical tools and I hope this is the year he proves me wrong but I dont have high hopes

Getting Back on topic I really like Bryce Petty, but hes going to require some real break in time for an NFL offense. We have a team that wants to win now so im not sure how much he would even be able to contribute early. That being said I would love to take him if we move back some or if for some reason hes still there in the third round (I dont see that happening) I think O-Line is a bigger need with that 50 pick. If Bryce Petty is the BPA at 50 take him, if you have a third round grade or if you think theres better players on the board you pass.

[X-Era]

The Bills are typically fairly transparent. So, it wouldn't surprise me if the smoke is real.

I like the thought of drafting him. Even at 50. But more so at 81. Mayock has hiom as the 3rd best and Whaley has stated that he thinks the next tier isn't too far down from Winston and Mariota

[Yasgur's Farm]

I actually think they've stopped being transparent since the Dareus pick in '11.. Especially when we consider the EJ and Sammy selections.

[Night Train]

I'd be pissed. He is not that good. OL, S, LB.

[swiper]

I actually think they've stopped being transparent since the Dareus pick in '11.. Especially when we consider the EJ and Sammy selections.

Yep. Playing the same games other GMs play.

[emoulds80]

IMO, its going to be carl davis or aj cann,

aj cann if both are available

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i seen the tape, i consider aj cann on of the top propects of all positions. kinda suprised hes not being talked about going earlier

[Mace]

Due diligence. They've either done pro days, combine chats or had visits with QB's : Bennett, Bridge, Boone, Carden, Fajardo, Halliday, Hundley, Lovelocke, Mannion, Grayson, Sims and now Petty.

http://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bill...t_tracker.html

[The Jokeman]

The Bills are typically fairly transparent. So, it wouldn't surprise me if the smoke is real.

I like the thought of drafting him. Even at 50. But more so at 81. Mayock has hiom as the 3rd best and Whaley has stated that he thinks the next tier isn't too far down from Winston and Mariota

How can you be transparent at pick 50?

[Don't Panic]

I'd like to think there are some commonly held odds of succeeding by round amongst head men in the NFL when it comes to drafting QBs. I have no idea what they really are, but a half-educated guess would put them at about...
1st: 60-100%
2nd: 30-60%
3rd: 20-30%
4th and beyond: <20%
Meaning, if you think a guy has about a 25% chance of making it, you wait until the 3rd round. 45% chance? Take him in the 2nd. I don't think these are dead on, but they're probably ballpark.

So all that said, what do you think the odds are Petty is successful?

[Mace]

I'd like to think there are some commonly held odds of succeeding by round amongst head men in the NFL when it comes to drafting QBs. I have no idea what they really are, but a half-educated guess would put them at about...
1st: 60-100%
2nd: 30-60%
3rd: 20-30%
4th and beyond: <20%
Meaning, if you think a guy has about a 25% chance of making it, you wait until the 3rd round. 45% chance? Take him in the 2nd. I don't think these are dead on, but they're probably ballpark.

So all that said, what do you think the odds are Petty is successful?

Well, atm, Ryan's QB drafting success rate is probably beneath the standard odds you mention which probably look near close to accurate to me, but if you look at Brady (6/199 <20% chance) and roll through the NFL draft selections (Pennington 1/18), Giovanni Carmazzi (3/65), Chris Redman (3/75), Tee Martin (5/163), Marc Bulger (6/168), and Spergon Wynn (6/183) at qb before Brady, it might be the odds are irrelevant to team/match which need new sets of odds. Petty has a better chance of being successful depending who picks him, like you can't picture Brady doing so well on the Spergon Wynn career path in Cleveland.

Here ? Well. Ryan teams have drafted Tajh Boyd (2014), Geno Smith (2013), Greg McElroy (2011), Mark Sanchez (2009), with 6/2/7/1 odds that were all pretty much needing a new set of odds I sure can't comprehend for futile, despite the previous probable futile odds. But if you waited until round 3 for Sanchez if he was available, or grabbed, McElroy in round 2, or Tajh Boyd in round 4, none of it would have helped Ryan or those QB's any.

[X-Era]

I actually think they've stopped being transparent since the Dareus pick in '11.. Especially when we consider the EJ and Sammy selections.

Manuel's name was talked about days before the draft by BB.com even when many thought as many as 3 or 4 QB would be drafted before him. Watkins was a surprise but in all fairness it was a huge trade up which no one, even the Bills, knew they could pull off before draft day.

[X-Era]

How can you be transparent at pick 50?

Transparent in who you are after. Who you like a lot. The Bills know the tier or range of players that are likely to be there at 50.

[Night Train]

After reading Ryans comments yesterday after Day 1 of Vet mini-camp, he likes what he saw of Cassel & Taylor plus holds some hope for Manuel.

I'd rather draft someone who could help the team this year, rather than a long term project that will be inactive on game day.

[X-Era]

I'd like to think there are some commonly held odds of succeeding by round amongst head men in the NFL when it comes to drafting QBs. I have no idea what they really are, but a half-educated guess would put them at about...
1st: 60-100%
2nd: 30-60%
3rd: 20-30%
4th and beyond: <20%
Meaning, if you think a guy has about a 25% chance of making it, you wait until the 3rd round. 45% chance? Take him in the 2nd. I don't think these are dead on, but they're probably ballpark.

So all that said, what do you think the odds are Petty is successful?

I think your percentages are high across the board. The round 1 percent is probably more like 25-40. And it only goes down from there. It's a total crapshoot.

Unfortunately it's a crap-shoot that all teams without a QB must play. I gave up trying to predict success with QB prospects. I'd say Petty has a chance. I like his approach to the game and game management. He has the arm talent that you need. What he doesn't have is experience in a pro system where he reads defense. But he seems to pass the IQ test so he can learn. Draft him, let him learn, and see where it takes you.

[MillsapsBillsFan]

I think your percentages are high across the board. The round 1 percent is probably more like 25-40. And it only goes down from there. It's a total crapshoot.

Unfortunately it's a crap-shoot that all teams without a QB must play. I gave up trying to predict success with QB prospects. I'd say Petty has a chance. I like his approach to the game and game management. He has the arm talent that you need. What he doesn't have is experience in a pro system where he reads defense. But he seems to pass the IQ test so he can learn. Draft him, let him learn, and see where it takes you.

The only thing that worries me about that approach is actually giving him the time to learn. This league is so QB hungry that if he shows any potential he'll be thrust into the starting role and that could ruin a young QB. I don't think were a team that has the talent at that position right now to let a guy sit and learn, especially with Cassel on a short term deal

I really do like Petty and I think he's very talented, he had to carry Baylor on his back many times and he did that very well. So I do hope theres a way we can get him (best case scenario we can trade back and get him) but I just really worry about him being thrust into the spotlight when hes not ready