Spotrac contract prediction for Marcel Dareus: 5 years, $77.6 million, 36.47 gtd

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I would send champagne to Whaley's office if we got the deal done at those numbers, considering that deal Suh just signed.

http://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/...ll-dareus-515/

Value of the Contract
Our base contract figures provided a deal averaging just above $14.2M per season, a number that would rank him 3rd among all NFL defensive tackles. When including our prime percentages (both of which he achieved positive values for), we're given the following:

Low Value (Hometown Discount)
Utilizing our Average Prime Percentage (+8.04%), we're provided with a contract averaging $15.3M per year, slightly less than McCoy's extension in Tampa.
5 years, $76,893,706 | $15,378,741 per year | $36,293,829 guaranteed

Maximum Value
Utilizing our Median Prime Percentage (22.81%), we're provided with a contract averaging more than $18.8M per year - just less than Suh's deal in Miami.
5 years, $94,433,161 | $18,886,6325 per year | $44,572,451 guaranteed

...

The current Bills front office has shown that when they believe in a player, they'll front-load guaranteed money to make the deal work (see TE Charles Clay and DE Jerry Hughes). While the reliability of Dareus may be a concern, he's a hard position to replace at his age & skill-level. With that being said, he simply hasn't shown that he's as valuable to his team on an individual basis (nor consistently statistically productive) as McCoy or Suh over the past two seasons. For this reason, Dareus' true value should lean more on the Low Value, rather than the Maximum

[YardRat]

I'm guessing it's closer to the maximum.

[The Jokeman]

I would send champagne to Whaley's office if we got the deal done at those numbers, considering that deal Suh just signed.

http://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/...ll-dareus-515/

I don't get why they think he'll make less than McCoy. As they've played almost the same amount of games but McCoy has been in the league one more season yet their stats are almost identical except Dareus has a few more sacks, tackles and is a bigger player. Granted Tampa hasn't had the surrounding cast that we have but the debate is Dareus a product of the players around him or are they a product of him? I imagine it's a little bit of both. Call me a homer but Dareus as a better player than McCoy. Toss in most agents strive for their players to get the most money especially as good as Dareus as he was arguably the best DT in the NFL last season. Getting less than Suh makes some sense if count the hometown discount but don't expect it to much lower than Suh.

[jimmifli]

I expect he'll get a deal that's bigger than Suh's by a little but in real terms it'll be a little less. So a touch less guaranteed money, a touch more total contract value.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I don't get why they think he'll make less than McCoy. As they've played almost the same amount of games but McCoy has been in the league one more season yet their stats are almost identical except Dareus has a few more sacks, tackles and is a bigger player.

Both the "Dareus is partially a product of his teammates" angle and "Dareus has character red flags" angle.

Personally I don't think either of those will wash, he'll get close to Suh's deal and deserves it.

[swiper]

You can't keep paying DTs this kind of money. It's unsustainable.

[k-oneputt]

Well they can pay this dt and they better do it.
Plays at that position, at that skill level and at that age are hard to find, and the Bills have one.
They all feed off of each other but he is the kingpin imo. He is the one making everyone around him better.
Just look at what happened last year in Oakland when he went down.
He is a must sign and I don't care how they do it or who they have to let walk.

[SpikedLemonade]

I expect he'll get a deal that's bigger than Suh's by a little but in real terms it'll be a little less. So a touch less guaranteed money, a touch more total contract value.

I agree.

There is no such thing as a hometown discount in professional sports.

[X-Era]

I agree.

There is no such thing as a hometown discount in professional sports.

Cough...Brady...cough

[X-Era]

I'm guessing it's closer to the maximum.

I'm fine with it if we can manage to keep the cap hit at 7-8 mill for the first year.

[DynaPaul]

Cough...Brady...cough

That's because he knows he'll look like the 6th round draft pick he is anywhere else outside of New England.

[TacklingDummy]

He disappeared the 2nd half of the season. No where near worth Suh.

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He disappeared the 2nd half of the season. No where near worth Suh.

[gr8slayer]

He'll get more than that.

[Ingtar33]

if he gets to the probowl again, it will be +$100mil

especially since he's a better pass rusher then Suh is

[Uncle Jesse]

It's gonna have to be 100 million plus.

[yordad]

That's because he knows he'll look like the 6th round draft pick he is anywhere else outside of New England.

Or they paid him under the table.

[Strongman]

I think there's a good chance his contract could exceed Suh's simply because he's every bit as good a player and doesn't come with as much baggage Suh brings. Let's face it, Suh is probably another dirty play away from getting a nice long suspension.

[DraftBoy]

He'll be the highest paid DT in the NFL when its all said and done and he's worth every penny. Whaley has to get this done, no matter what.

[OpIv37]

So long, and thanks for all the shoes.

No way the Bills can afford him under the cap with all the spending this off-season.

[TacklingDummy]

So long, and thanks for all the shoes.

No way the Bills can afford him under the cap with all the spending this off-season.

Not to mention Quartebacks when Super Bowls, DT do not.

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He'll be the highest paid DT in the NFL when its all said and done and he's worth every penny. Whaley has to get this done, no matter what.

Lol