Cam Newton & Luke Keachly

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Its Not Flawed. Your falling back into a 'Hindsight Argument' by looking past examples that support your ideology.

That's rich. Look at your posts:

Cam Newton & Luke Keachly

2 Superstars that helped lead the Panthers to 15-1 and a SB 50

Bills wanted both players badly. Even tried trading up for both!

2 Games Separated the Bills from the Panthers in 2011 (Cam Draft) & 2012 Draft (Luke draft).

> 2 Games and a tiebreaker these these superstars would be wearing a Bills uniform.<

Instead the Bills got the privlage of winning short term & 2 meaningless games while the Panthers won long term and lost a few extra meaningless games.

Who would you rather be?

How is that not a "specific example to support your ideology"? Your entire claim is that teams get better when they lose games at the end of the season, but you can't even find examples of that. The 2011 Colts and 2003 Steelers actually finished the season stronger then they started it.

Your own topic started with a lament that we didn't get Cam Newton, a guy you admitted you didn't even want.

Every so often, a Generational Talent is comes out (Gretzky, Lemieux, Elway, Etc) which have a HIGH ODDS of changing the Destiny of a Franchise.

In these 'opportune times' teams have taken advantage and tanked in order to draft that Generational Talent.

Pittsburgh did it Lemiex becuase the cost of losing a few extra meaningless games was a very small price to pay to have the opportunity to draft a Highly Rated Generational Prospect.

Pittsburgh Played the ODDS and WON a few Stantley Cups. The was not hindsight it was foresight. It was PLAYING HIGHLY FAVORABLE ODDS & Winning.

Sabres did it last year & landed Jack Eichel whose play has justified their tanking

http://m.thn.com/blog/nhls-new-draft...ing-heres-why/

Many teams have done this befor which is why the NHL now has a draft lottery for the top 3 picks.

Hockey is a much different sport then football. One player can carry a team much more then even a QB in football. Dan Marino is five times the QB Eli Manning ever was, but the latter has two rings to Marino's zero.

It's also notable that your own examples of generational talent you should tank for includes Elway, a guy who was traded on draft day, and Gretzky, a guy who wasn't even drafted at all. In 1998, the year we would have had to tank to get Manning, we were a 10 win playoff team. Are you saying you'd tank a playoff season for a draft pick?

You've been asked about a half-dozen times now. Using your foresight, who is the generational player in the 2016 draft that we should have tanked for? When is the next generational player coming

For the NFL a Generational QB Prospect offers tremendous opportunity for improvement which many GMs would be willing to sacrifice a season for given they already have a bad team.

No they won't. Even if you think the 2011 Colts were an intentional tank job, you should keep in mind that it got almost everyone fired.

Jim Caldwell - Fired
Bill Polian - Fired
Chris Polian - Fired
Clyde Christensen (OC) - Demoted to position coach
Larry Coyer (DC) - Fired

Only two of those guys have reached their former positions with new teams, and two left the NFL entirely.

Who do you think is going to follow your advice?

[Mike]

@IlluminatusUIUC

Who would risk this? How about the Sabres GM with full support of ownership!
Ironically you have Eichel in your signature the very player the Sabres won.

Most Importantly Your getting lost in the complexity!

So let's step back...and Focus on the 1 thing:

HIGHER Pick = Better ODDS

==============================

Imagine that you could bet on a coin toss (50/50 odds of head or tails) that payed out 3 to 1.

Would you take this bet?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

@IlluminatusUIUC

Your getting lost in the complexity!

So let's step back...and Focus on the 1 thing:

HIGHER Pick = Better ODDS

==============================

Imagine that you could bet on a coin toss (50/50 odds of head or tails) that payed out 3 to 1.

Would you take this bet?

You keep likening this to a coin flip, but you can't actually know the odds of an NFL player's success in advance. Period.

If you want to take this analogy all the way, it's a coin flip where you don't actually get to see the result for years after you flip, and you are likely to get fired before you find out. Still taking those odds?

[Mike]

You keep likening this to a coin flip, but you can't actually know the odds of an NFL player's success in advance. Period.

> That's where your wrong. There is an actual difference between Elway and EJ Manual as prospects. Prospects get something called a draft grade from scouts which is essentially their ODDS of being successful. Elway had a score of 99/100 which means he had a very high chance of success and a potentially really high return.

Drafting Elway was like flipping a coin 100 and having the option of selecting both heads & tails 90 of times with a high payout (50-1). Success was not guaranteed, Elway could still have sucked but the ODDS were Low.

EJ Manual had a score of 68 which isn't impressive. His ODDS of panning out were less than a coin flip and had a Low payouts. As a result of this Risk, most teams had EJ as a 4th or 5th round draft pick.

ODDS are a funny thing. Las Vegas Casinos have Odds advantage in ever single game but from time to time you might walk away a winner. This doesn't mean that odds don't matter and that you should blow your life's saving at a Casino.

In the End the House Always Wins because they Have ODDS on their side.


If you want to take this analogy all the way, it's a coin flip where you don't actually get to see the result for years after you flip, and you are likely to get fired before you find out. Still taking those odds?

For for a generational prospect absolutely.

I'll take those ODDs as a GM. The alternative of picking an average, coin flip prospect worth a low payout is far worst and is just as likely to get you canned.

The question, is what do you Gain from winning a meaningless game?

[Joe Fo Sho]

The question, is what do you Gain from winning a meaningless game?

As a fan? It's certainly more fun to win than it is to lose. You can make all of the Jets fans in your office buy you lunch and see them be miserable that they missed the playoffs because they couldn't even beat you once, you can make the Cowboys fan in your office put a Bills logo on their truck for a month, use your imagination. I sure as hell don't want to suffer through a miserable season to get a high draft pick only to suffer through 5 more losing seasons like we've been doing. I'll take the wins where I can get them and hope for improvement every year.

Are you just trying to convince fans to root for losses once we've been eliminated from the playoffs? Is that the point of all this nonsense?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

That's where your wrong. There is an actual difference between Elway and EJ Manual as prospects. Prospects get something called a draft grade from scouts which is essentially their ODDS of being successful. Elway had a score of 99/100 which means he had a very high chance of success and a potentially really high return.

Drafting Elway was like flipping a coin 100 and having the option of selecting both heads & tails 90 of times with a high payout (50-1). Success was not guaranteed, Elway could still have sucked but the ODDS were Low.

EJ Manual had a score of 68 which isn't impressive. His ODDS of panning out were less than a coin flip and had a Low payouts. As a result of this Risk, most teams had EJ as a 4th or 5th round draft pick.

ODDS are a funny thing. Las Vegas Casinos have Odds advantage in ever single game but from time to time you might walk away a winner. This doesn't mean that odds don't matter and that you should blow your life's saving at a Casino.

In the End the House Always Wins because they Have ODDS on their side.

I never said Elway and Manuel were equal prospects, I said that tanking an entire season to get a "generational" player is likely to get the staff fired. They aren't going to do it.

Funny story about the Elway draft. The team that "tanked" to get him didn't actually get him, and the poor Buffalo Bills drafted a Hall of Fame QB anyway. Oops!

For for a generational prospect absolutely.

I'll take those ODDs as a GM. The alternative of picking an average, coin flip prospect worth a low payout is far worst and is just as likely to get you canned.

You might, but actual GMs won't. People were calling for Doug Whaley's head and the team finished 8-8. Imagine they did what you wanted and tanked after the KC loss, finishing 5-11. What do you think the ODDS are that Whaley has a job in Buffalo today?

Also I'll ask again: Who is the generational player in the 2016 draft? The longer you go without answering the question, the weaker your entire point looks.

The question, is what do you Gain from winning a meaningless game?

Who is the "you" in this sentence? If its Whaley, then he gets to keep his job. If it's me, the fan, I get to see them kick a hated division rival right in the dick.

[YardRat]

WHO IS THE QB THE BILLS SHOULD HAVE TANKED FOR THIS SEASON?

[pmoon6]

The Buffalo Bills ****ed up not tanking any of the seasons where they could have drafted "generational" players like Cryin' Leaf, Mike Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Jamarcus Russell, Rick Mirer, and Vince Young....oh wait we got the last one, but not in the draft.

How did that work out???

[Mace]

WHO IS THE QB THE BILLS SHOULD HAVE TANKED FOR THIS SEASON?

You know, that's an excellent point.

[Joe Fo Sho]

The Buffalo Bills ****ed up not tanking any of the seasons where they could have drafted "generational" players like Cryin' Leaf, Mike Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Jamarcus Russell, Rick Mirer, and Vince Young....oh wait we got the last one, but not in the draft.

On the flip side, here are just some of the players the Bills left on the board after drafting in the 1st round and before our 2nd round pick.

2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008
Odell Beckham, Jr - WR	Sheldon Richardson - DT	Dontari Poe - DT	AJ Green - WR	Earl Thomas - S	Brian Cushing - LB	Ryan Clady - OT
Aaron Donald - DT	Eric Reid - S	Fletcher Cox - DT	Patrick Peterson - CB	Mike Iupati - G	Jeremy Maclin - WR	Brandon Albert - G
Teddy Bridgewater - QB	Kyle Long - G	Chandler Jones - DE	Tyron Smith - OT	Demaryius Thomas - WR	Alex Mack - C	Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - CB
Derek Carr - QB	Tyler Eifert - TE	David DeCastro - G	JJ Watt - DE	Dez Bryant - WR	Michael Oher - OT	Joe Flacco - QB
	DeAndre Hopkins - WR	Dont'a Hightower - LB	Muhammad Wilkerson - DE	Rob Gronkowski - TE (picked just after our 2nd round pick)	Clay Matthews - LB	Aqib Talib - CB

If you really want to be miserable and play the hindsight game, try inserting one guy from each of these drafts onto our roster in lieu of who we drafted. Wouldn't it be nice to see Flacco in a Bills uniform throwing to Gronk and Hopkins, with Aaron Donald, JJ Watt, Clay Matthews, and Chandler Jones on the other side of the ball?

Maybe we should have won more meaningless games so that these guys would have been more likely to be at the top of our draft board. Because as the ODDS are, that's exactly what would happen.

[Mike]

The Buffalo Bills ****ed up not tanking any of the seasons where they could have drafted "generational" players like Cryin' Leaf, Mike Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Jamarcus Russell, Rick Mirer, and Vince Young....oh wait we got the last one, but not in the draft.

How did that work out???

thanks for showing you stupidity

If you think Jamarcus Russel, Carr, Harrington, Younge were GENERATIONAL Talents you don't know shiiittt

[YardRat]

thanks for showing you stupidity

If you think Jamarcus Russel, Carr, Harrington, Younge were GENERATIONAL Talents you don't know shiiittt

Who is the QB in this year's draft that the Bills should have lost for?

[Mike]

I never said Elway and Manuel were equal prospects, I said that tanking an entire season to get a "generational" player is likely to get the staff fired. They aren't going to do it.

>>> This is entirely Speculation. Weather or Not a GM gets fired has a lot more to do with a 'Body of work' than bad season here or there. Look at how many chances Doug Whaley has had without a single playoff season or generational prospect to show for it. <<<<


You might, but actual GMs won't.
> That's Factually inaccurate. The Sabres did it last year with full support of ownership. Did the GM get fired or is he getting credit for rebuilding the Sabres? If you recall, the Sabres were once a middle of the road team just like the Bills and were purposely blown up. They traded away all of their best players, loaded up on picks, and did everything in their power to tank year after year. As a result they have a bunch of great prospects & a generation talent.

*If they win a Stanley Cup it will be becuase they made this sacrifice

Please don't be so naive as to think the Sabres are the only franchise to manufacture a tanking. The 76ers did it, the Penguins did it and I would not be surprised if the Colts did it.

People were calling for Doug Whaley's head and the team finished 8-8. Imagine they did what you wanted and tanked after the KC loss, finishing 5-11. What do you think the ODDS are that Whaley has a job in Buffalo today?
> Clearky there is no way to know that. However, based on your logic, Why is he still here?


Also I'll ask again: Who is the generational player in the 2016 draft?
There is None. This is a forward looking topic. I made this same argument when Luck was coming out.... And most of the posters blasted me then. They argued how there was no way to know if he'll be good, that it wasn't worth the risk (risk of what?) etc...

There will be another generational talent that emerges and the question will be, will the Bills be in position to get him? If you look at today's NFL, it is Dominates by Generational QBs: For example Manning & Brady have accounted for 10 SB appearances in last 15 years and they both play in the AFC!

Who is the "you" in this sentence? If its Whaley, then he gets to keep his job. If it's me, the fan, I get to see them kick a hated division rival right in the dick.

> If 8 wins is all that's needed for Whaley to Keep his Job and for you to be a Happy Fan then you deserve each other.
Based on the responses in the thread the Bills fans are getting exactly what they want and deserve. 8-8 is clearly good enough for all of you<

[Mike]

Who is the QB in this year's draft that the Bills should have lost for?

There is None.
Generational talents are Rare... And when you can get one you do what you can to draft him.
This year's QBs draft class is good, nothing special.

To my surprise, Most posters feel the same way you do.
They would rather go 8-8 then 2-14 and draft a Generational Telent
Even if they could *Magically go back to 2012 and change the Bills's record and draft Luck they wouldn't do it because those extra few wins really meant something to them.

Im fine with that.
I prefer a Super Bowl but I guess that's just me.

[Mike]

As a fan? It's certainly more fun to win than it is to lose. You can make all of the Jets fans in your office buy you lunch and see them be miserable that they missed the playoffs because they couldn't even beat you once, you can make the Cowboys fan in your office put a Bills logo on their truck for a month, use your imagination. I sure as hell don't want to suffer through a miserable season to get a high draft pick only to suffer through 5 more losing seasons like we've been doing. I'll take the wins where I can get them and hope for improvement every year.

Are you just trying to convince fans to root for losses once we've been eliminated from the playoffs? Is that the point of all this nonsense?

I get it... Those wins mean something to you

To me they mean something different.

In the end, we're both rooting for the Bills. Your rooting for short term success of the team, I'm rooting for long term success.

I'm willing to sacrifice the present and take one step back as a franchise so we can take 3 steps forward.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

This is entirely Speculation. Weather or Not a GM gets fired has a lot more to do with a 'Body of work' than bad season here or there.

2016 #1 pick Titans -> Fired coach and GM
2015 #1 pick Bucs -> Didn't fire anyone immediately, coach fired next year
2014 #1 pick Texans -> Fired coach
2013 #1 pick Chiefs -> Fired coach and GM
2012 #1 pick Colts -> Fired coach and GM
2011 #1 pick Panthers -> Fired coach
2010 #1 pick Rams -> Fired coach
2009 #1 pick Lions -> Fired coach, GM fired midseason
2008 #1 pick Dolphins -> Fired coach (first year of his deal) and GM
2007 #1 pick Raiders -> Fired coach (first year of his deal), GM was owner so couldn't fire him
2006 #1 pick Texans -> Fired coach, GM stepped down next year

Gee, it sure seems like finishing dead last in the league is bad for your career. Several of the guys mentioned have yet to return to being GMs or head coaches anywhere.

[YardRat]

There is None.
Generational talents are Rare... And when you can get one you do what you can to draft him.
This year's QBs draft class is good, nothing special.

Thanks for finally answering.

To my surprise, Most posters feel the same way you do.
They would rather go 8-8 then 2-14 and draft a Generational Telent
Even if they could *Magically go back to 2012 and change the Bills's record and draft Luck they wouldn't do it because those extra few wins really meant something to them.

Im fine with that.
I prefer a Super Bowl but I guess that's just me.

You might have already covered this, but what QB's drafted since 2000 do you consider 'generational talent'?

[Mr. Pink]

See I personally don't think you should tank out an entire year for any reason. But when you get to a certain point in the season you should realize the season is in fact lost. Once this years team lost to KC the writing on the wall was already there that the Bills were done.

When you reach that point winning should become secondary. Your goal should be to develop young talent and see what you got in guys who won't get into regular game situations. That way you can see if you found one of those diamonds in the rough or if a guy you're trying to develop is complete garbage and should just be jettisoned.

In addition to using the remainder of said season to be basically an extended preseason, you're more likely to lose more games which in turn puts you higher on the draft board. Obviously if you're higher on the board, there is a larger talent pool to choose from. I brought up Big Ben as an example earlier in the thread as an obvious reason but I'll give another reason that also makes sense.

In 2013, the Bills were 4-9. They proceeded to win 2 of the remaining 3 to go 6-10. Now, admittedly I don't know if the Browns or Bills had a weaker SOS, but they lose out those 3 meaningless games they are also 4-12...like the Browns. With a weaker SOS the trade made with Cleveland to acquire Sammy Watkins doesn't even need to happen. If Cleveland has the tiebreaker, you then have to offer less to move up one slot or you just sit there realizing the Browns likely aren't drafted a WR anyway.

So in my 2 examples of meaningless victories one cost the Bills Big Ben completely and they settled on JP which took a trade and future picks to acquire and the second it cost the Bills 2 first round picks to get Sammy.

One should not win meaningless games that provide zero value at the time as well in the future at the expense of future assets and talent. Playing the hindsight game where you say well the Bills should have drafted OBJ instead of Sammy is an exercise in futility as Watkins is who they scouted to be better and that's who they wanted all along. Same goes with Big Ben. But having a viewpoint that a certain time in your season that losing far outweighs winning is an easy connection to make. As well as seeing how easily this team would look very different today than currently constructed. If the Bills don't win that meaningless Jet game back in the day, they draft Big Ben. And this team isn't on their current course of 16 seasons with no playoffs.

It's hard to justify a team throwing an entire year for that generational talent as your team as currently constructed can surprise the league. Guys might end up being better than you thought initially. Guys may develop faster than you thought they would. The QB you're currently riding might have that proverbial light bulb go off in his head, like with Tyrod, he might realize next year that throwing tight end seam passes is in fact a winning strategy in the NFL. But you reach a certain point in the season and you're well aware that you're going nowhere and winning the games after you reach that point is more of a detriment than anything else.

[pmoon6]

Illuminatus has already covered the coaching and GM angle of losing games extensively.

Do any of you Bozos think a competitive athlete would go along with purposely losing games? Not only does it go against their nature as players, but it could cost them down the road should they hit free agency.

My theory still holds up considering this thread. Very few actual fans of football. All we have are fans of winning so they can rub their pathetic peckers against the TV screen. It's not enough to just be competitive and play good ball.

You Yoyos actually think you win by losing...in some alternate universe.

This isn't Madden, boys. This is real life complete with flesh and blood players, coaches and GMs all trying to keep or get another chance at employment.

You don't get that if you lose on purpose.

[Joe Fo Sho]

In the end, we're both rooting for the Bills. Your rooting for short term success of the team, I'm rooting for long term success.

You actually have no idea what you're rooting for, that much is painfully obvious.