PFF Draft Grades - Winners and Losers

[ParanoidAndroid]

Everybody wants to do comparisons. They don't work.

[Night Train]

The rule of thumb is getting 2 to 3 players out of each draft that can get a good deal of snaps the first year and help the team. They did that with the first 3 picks who will play a lot and were very productive players in top programs. At the conclusion of Friday, I believed the Bills did very well.

The RB & WR look promising. They'll probably make the team. CB was a flyer.

Yet the focus of the responses is a developmental QB who was the 42nd and last pick of an extended 4th round...meaning he's basically a 5th rounder. Get a grip. He gets a year or more to develop while Taylor starts. May not amount to much but he wasn't a high pick anyhow.

Overall, a very good draft for the Bills.

[mysticsoto]

Is it too much to ask that a project drafted in the fourth or fifth round and may never develop into a starter but hold a role as a back-up not have accuracy issues on the most important throws in the game? I'm certainly willing to give Jones some leash but there were other guys out there that could have been given the same shot.

If he didn't have those accuracy issues, he'd have been a 2nd rd pick or possibly a 1st and we never would have gotten him...

We need to wait now and see if he's capable of learning and fixing some things. Personally, I hope we can negotiate it out and pay Tyrod instead.

[YardRat]

If he didn't have those accuracy issues, he'd have been a 2nd rd pick or possibly a 1st and we never would have gotten him...

We need to wait now and see if he's capable of learning and fixing some things. Personally, I hope we can negotiate it out and pay Tyrod instead.

You're assuming the Bills wouldn't have pulled the trigger on him in the first or second, and considering the EJ thingie I don't think you can be too confident doing that.

As I've said before...I'm willing to wait...I'm willing to give him some slack...but that willingness doesn't make an accuracy issue go away.

[mysticsoto]

You're assuming the Bills wouldn't have pulled the trigger on him in the first or second, and considering the EJ thingie I don't think you can be too confident doing that.

As I've said before...I'm willing to wait...I'm willing to give him some slack...but that willingness doesn't make an accuracy issue go away.

Maybe. But then we'd have holes in the defense. I'd rather a strong defense and a decent qb than a good qb and a sucky defense.

[kingJofNYC]

Taking a QB on the 3rd day is usually setting said pick on fire, most don't develop, and more often than not have accuracy issues. Can they be overcome, I'm sure we can find some examples, but good bet that it's a no.

[Jry44]

STUPID. That is EXACTLY the expectation. IF you don't think that each and every pick is eventually going to start then pick someone else. Stupidest post ever.

I'm not going to sit here and throw insults at other adults by calling names, children do that. However if you want to see an exhibit of pure stupidity perhaps you should read the context and emotion in which your getting your panties in a bunch over a sport....

[Night Train]

Chris Burke, SI.com: A-

Burke (like many analysts) loved the pick of Reggie Ragland, who he called "a potential first-round fit for their defense." He noted the Top 10 potential of Shaq Lawson and the versatility of Adolphus Washington, while calling Cardale Jones "an ideal developmental candidate" as a fourth-round pick.
Matthew Fairburn, Syracuse.com: A-

Fairburn has some individual grades for each pick that are worth checking out. He dings Lawson (shoulder) and Ragland (enlarged aorta) a bit for their health issues, but notes that they should be great players when they're on the field. Jones was "worth the risk" at the end of the fourth, and Jonathan Williams and Kolby Listenbee should improve after recovering from injuries.
Dan Kadar, SBNation.com: A-

Kadar says Ragland "will be a starter for years in Buffalo." Like most others, he calls Jones the most questionable pick, but hedges it by noting that he's "only questionable in the sense that Jones is a big project." He calls Listenbee "one of [his] favorite picks of the draft."
Chad Reuter, NFL.com: A-

While Reuter says Lawson "isn't the physically dominating player Mario Williams is," he likes the pick. Even more, he thinks Ragland will "lead the Bills' defense for ten years." He believes that Williams "would have been a second- or third-round pick without the injury, so that was a good pull," and that Kevon Seymour "is a better player than his sixth-round draft status indicates."
Steve Palazzolo, ProFootballFocus.com: A-

The analytics site calls Lawson a Top 10 defender against the run and the pass, but notes Ragland's weakness in pass coverage. They praise the Washington pick, giving him the "third-best pass rush grade among the draft’s interior defensive linemen in 2015." Jones is "worth a developmental shot, even though his accuracy between six and 30 yards is among the worst in the class," and Listenbee "may be the fastest player in the draft."

Mel Kiper, ESPN.com: B

The preeminent draft guru is fine with the Bills' class, praising the picks of Lawson and Ragland despite Lawson's shoulder issues and the price of trading up for Ragland. He says of Washington, "he can be a penetrator from the interior, and early in the season I wouldn't have suspected he'd be available this late." Echoing another common sentiment, Kiper write, "Cardale Jones is nowhere close to starting an NFL game, but he doesn't need to be, and the value is fine."

[SpikedLemonade]

Some nice work here Night Train.

Thanks.

[k-oneputt]

At least Cardale gives you a chance with his physical makeup.
He has a big arm and can throw it, unlike the other 250 lb qb who throws like a fat girl in a dart league.

[DraftBoy]

At least Cardale gives you a chance with his physical makeup.
He has a big arm and can throw it, unlike the other 250 lb qb who throws like a fat girl in a dart league.

I'm not even sure I completely understand that analogy but it gave me a good chuckle.

[k-oneputt]

I'm not even sure I completely understand that analogy but it gave me a good chuckle.

I guess you haven't watched EJ throw a football
Shouldn't even have to elaborate on it.
6'4"250 lbs and his arm sucks.

[DraftBoy]

I guess you haven't watched EJ throw a football
Shouldn't even have to elaborate on it.
6'4"250 lbs and his arm sucks.

Yea...I wasn't questioning it, just saying it was funny.

[trapezeus]

Taking a QB on the 3rd day is usually setting said pick on fire, most don't develop, and more often than not have accuracy issues. Can they be overcome, I'm sure we can find some examples, but good bet that it's a no.

if you are looking for a back up who can go .500 for 3-4 games, a 5th round pick may be all you need. .500 backup is a whaley metric that he's referenced before

[swiper]

I'm not going to sit here and throw insults at other adults by calling names, children do that. However if you want to see an exhibit of pure stupidity perhaps you should read the context and emotion in which your getting your panties in a bunch over a sport....

It's a stupid pick by a lousy GM. Your clearly the one wearing panties.

[Pinkerton Security]

It's a stupid pick by a lousy GM. Your clearly the one wearing panties.

the late 4th round is exactly the spot you'd expect to draft a developmental QB who was undefeated and won a national championship at a big time school. He has a great arm and throws a pretty deep ball. I dont know what you expect with a 4th round pick, but then I dont get trolls in general.

[Arm of Harm]

Night Train wrote:

> Yet the focus of the responses is a developmental QB who was the 42nd and last pick of an extended 4th round

I'm not worried about the wasted fourth round pick. The vast majority of fourth rounders don't amount to much. My disappointment with the pick is because it reinforces my belief that Doug Whaley cannot be trusted to evaluate QB talent. If defenses catch up with Tyrod Taylor, or if he leaves in free agency, the Bills will be without a starting caliber QB, and without a GM capable of adequately evaluating QB talent in the draft.

There are two reasons for a team to over-emphasize physical gifts when looking at QBs. One is political. If (when?) the QB doesn't work out, they can say, "Well, we took a chance on a guy who has all the physical tools you'd want. Sometimes things just don't work out." The other reason is that the two most important traits for a QB--accuracy and fast information processing speed--are more difficult to evaluate than raw physical tools. A GM or scout might be able to see a QB's physical tools, without being as clearly able to see the other, more important traits.

After becoming GM, Whaley went "all in" on E.J. He used the Bills' first round picks in 2014 and 2015 on Sammy Watkins; leaving himself without a Plan B if (when?) E.J. failed. There were good quarterbacks available in the 2014 draft--especially Derek Carr. At the time, people on discussion boards just like this one praised Whaley for being aggressive, being willing to bet the farm on E.J., etc. Some even suggested this risk taking was an indication of a high testosterone level. The problem with all this is that other than his physical traits, there was nothing about E.J. which would suggest he'd be a successful starting QB in the NFL. Had he returned for his final year of college, he would have ridden the bench while Jameis Winston started. Like E.J. Manuel, Cardale Jones has great physical gifts. Also like E.J., Jones proved unable to hold onto a starting position at the college level. Also like E.J., there is nothing about Cardale Jones, other than his physical gifts, which would suggest he could succeed at the NFL level.

[elroy16]

PFF flounders on Bills grade.

Round 1 - take guy with bum shoulder

Round 2 - take LB that can't cover in the emerging NFL pass game

Round 3 - take Corbin Bryant's twin

THEN the GM feels obliged to get some offense reacting by taking the worst QB that was drafted, a RB (why another?) and a WR.

I'm glad you checked out Shaq's shoulder and watched every snap of all of the draft picks. Great insight.

[swiper]

I'm glad you checked out Shaq's shoulder and watched every snap of all of the draft picks. Great insight.

You blind homers continue to show how you wear blinders.

[YardRat]

Night Train wrote:

> Yet the focus of the responses is a developmental QB who was the 42nd and last pick of an extended 4th round

I'm not worried about the wasted fourth round pick. The vast majority of fourth rounders don't amount to much. My disappointment with the pick is because it reinforces my belief that Doug Whaley cannot be trusted to evaluate QB talent. If defenses catch up with Tyrod Taylor, or if he leaves in free agency, the Bills will be without a starting caliber QB, and without a GM capable of adequately evaluating QB talent in the draft.

There are two reasons for a team to over-emphasize physical gifts when looking at QBs. One is political. If (when?) the QB doesn't work out, they can say, "Well, we took a chance on a guy who has all the physical tools you'd want. Sometimes things just don't work out." The other reason is that the two most important traits for a QB--accuracy and fast information processing speed--are more difficult to evaluate than raw physical tools. A GM or scout might be able to see a QB's physical tools, without being as clearly able to see the other, more important traits.

After becoming GM, Whaley went "all in" on E.J. He used the Bills' first round picks in 2014 and 2015 on Sammy Watkins; leaving himself without a Plan B if (when?) E.J. failed. There were good quarterbacks available in the 2014 draft--especially Derek Carr. At the time, people on discussion boards just like this one praised Whaley for being aggressive, being willing to bet the farm on E.J., etc. Some even suggested this risk taking was an indication of a high testosterone level. The problem with all this is that other than his physical traits, there was nothing about E.J. which would suggest he'd be a successful starting QB in the NFL. Had he returned for his final year of college, he would have ridden the bench while Jameis Winston started. Like E.J. Manuel, Cardale Jones has great physical gifts. Also like E.J., Jones proved unable to hold onto a starting position at the college level. Also like E.J., there is nothing about Cardale Jones, other than his physical gifts, which would suggest he could succeed at the NFL level.

Good first post.

Welcome