Thread lookback: 2016 draft view

[stuckincincy]

I think you have to look at this draft from two perspectives because to me their goal completely changed mid-draft.

The first two rounds were about finding immediate starters who could bring a Day 1 impact.

After that every single pick was a high upside big potential player who is he develops properly becomes a huge steal. With the amount of impact they are likely to get from Lawson and Ragland, I'm ok with the top tier potential approach they went the rest of the way. At best they added 4 potential starters down the road, at worst they got some decent depth players.

Oh I agree. Good job for the 1st 3 picks.

After that, the only high upside players I wanted to see were OL prospects. There are folks who post on this board who have never seen a BUF OL that doesn't carry some sort of question mark - year after year.

A WR? For what? For Taylor to run around when an ounce of pressure comes his way, then fling one down the sidelines? Get yer QB position settled first, get yer WRs second.

A RB? Why? They paid $$$$ for McCoy. Plucked a RB from another club's PS a while back.

Sorry - just venting

[Ingtar33]

First of all, I'm not going to blame Whaley for not getting a QB. The only one worth picking in the whole draft wasn't on the board when our second pick came up (and frankly I wasn't thrilled with him in round 1 anyway), and while others may have wanted us to overdraft players like Prescott and that penn state bust, I'll tell you right now, neither will ever make it in the NFL.

I've been a harsh critic of Whaley in the past but I can't hate on this draft for most of it. About the only thing I would have liked is for the bills to have bolstered that OL a little bit more. Setting that aside, I don't really have any complaints about this draft.

R1 : DE Lawson : great pick. this guy should have been off the board in the top 10, EVEN if that shoulder is an issue, this is a great pickup. Our run defense is a big problem, he's a great run defender. He's also a very good pass rusher. Not often you can find a DE/OLB who can hold the edge against the rush AND rush the passer. Great pickup.

R2 : LB Ragland : If anything this might end up being the best pick in this draft. I loved watching him in college. He doesn't seem to get caught in traffic, he's a monster in the middle of the field, has good range sideline to sideline. If he has a weakness it's I don't like him in man coverage, but he does just fine in zone. One position that was really hurting last year was our ILBs were both atrocious. This was position no.1 on my list of needs for this squad, and I think he'll be a day one starter.

R3 : DT Washington : Great pick for round 3, If I have one problem with it, it's while he should be a starter at DE now, he probably can't start as a true 3-4 NT which is a bigger need then DE, for a few years and another 20-30 pounds. That said he probably could play NT down the road. He's built like one.

R4 : QB Jones : meh. he's basically EJ without 3 years of starting experience. VERY RAW. that said who knows what a few years on a bench will do.

R5 : RB Williams : meh, this pick smells of "best player availible", I can't blame them for taking him as by the time you hit round 5 the talent usually is so thin you're just praying they'll make the squad by this point. I would have liked a OL, but clearly they didn't like what was on the board.

R6 : WR Listenbee : Speed never hurts. You can teach a WR how to run routes, and how to catch. you can't teach them how to run fast. depends how much he wants it, but this could be a surprise day one starter as a utility guy if his hands prove reliable.

R6 : DB Seymour : I think he was picked to play safety, one thing is for sure, he'll never make it in the NFL at CB.

Overall this one is my favorite Whaley draft.

[YardRat]

Seymour has the speed to play the back end in C1 shells, but I'm not sure he's a good enough tackler to be an effective safety. IMO he may be more of a nickelback type.

[Don't Panic]

Lawson - great pick, especially at 19. I think he has a pretty high ceiling that should result in flirtations with the Pro Bowl every year at his peak. Has the potential to be the 2nd best player on our D.

Ragland - love him. I worry a little bit about the coverage skills, but he could end up being an above average ILB in a couple years.

Washington - don't know a ton, but I like that we got a more dynamic tackle than a one trick pony (a la a NT). Rex's D requires versatility and he seems to have it. Playing next to Dareus and a healthy Williams will be fantastic for him. I bet he's starting by the end of the year and helping to assure that our front 7 has no weak spot.

Jones - I have my doubts about his ability to put it all together and be an NFL starter some day, but I think he's worth the gamble at the end of the 4th. It's an ideal situation for him, and I love that he'll have a stand up guy like EJ giving him a few years of perspective (from the bench) to accelerate his learning. May end up being EJ's greatest contribution in his Bills tenure outside of the Carolina game a couple years back. I give him about a 15% chance of being a better than average starter some day. We'll see what his head is made of in these next few years.

Williams and Listenbee seem like worthy gambles. Who knows on Seymour. My only knock was I'd have liked to have seen an OL (would have been great at the 4th we traded away, but that said I'm happy with Ragland and feel he was worth what was given up). Overall I give the draft an A-.

[DraftBoy]

First of all, I'm not going to blame Whaley for not getting a QB. The only one worth picking in the whole draft wasn't on the board when our second pick came up (and frankly I wasn't thrilled with him in round 1 anyway), and while others may have wanted us to overdraft players like Prescott and that penn state bust, I'll tell you right now, neither will ever make it in the NFL.

I've been a harsh critic of Whaley in the past but I can't hate on this draft for most of it. About the only thing I would have liked is for the bills to have bolstered that OL a little bit more. Setting that aside, I don't really have any complaints about this draft.

R1 : DE Lawson : great pick. this guy should have been off the board in the top 10, EVEN if that shoulder is an issue, this is a great pickup. Our run defense is a big problem, he's a great run defender. He's also a very good pass rusher. Not often you can find a DE/OLB who can hold the edge against the rush AND rush the passer. Great pickup.

R2 : LB Ragland : If anything this might end up being the best pick in this draft. I loved watching him in college. He doesn't seem to get caught in traffic, he's a monster in the middle of the field, has good range sideline to sideline. If he has a weakness it's I don't like him in man coverage, but he does just fine in zone. One position that was really hurting last year was our ILBs were both atrocious. This was position no.1 on my list of needs for this squad, and I think he'll be a day one starter.

R3 : DT Washington : Great pick for round 3, If I have one problem with it, it's while he should be a starter at DE now, he probably can't start as a true 3-4 NT which is a bigger need then DE, for a few years and another 20-30 pounds. That said he probably could play NT down the road. He's built like one.

R4 : QB Jones : meh. he's basically EJ without 3 years of starting experience. VERY RAW. that said who knows what a few years on a bench will do.

R5 : RB Williams : meh, this pick smells of "best player availible", I can't blame them for taking him as by the time you hit round 5 the talent usually is so thin you're just praying they'll make the squad by this point. I would have liked a OL, but clearly they didn't like what was on the board.

R6 : WR Listenbee : Speed never hurts. You can teach a WR how to run routes, and how to catch. you can't teach them how to run fast. depends how much he wants it, but this could be a surprise day one starter as a utility guy if his hands prove reliable.

R6 : DB Seymour : I think he was picked to play safety, one thing is for sure, he'll never make it in the NFL at CB.

Overall this one is my favorite Whaley draft.

Two things:

1. The one thing that I see a lot of people under selling on Ragland is his blitzing ability on passing downs. A lot of commentators have talked about how he is a 2 down LB only but he is a good blitzer who can play in the middle or off the edge in a Nickle package.

2. Listenbee's Route Tree is far more developed than Goodwin's ever was or is. TCU doesn't run a complicated offense but he's got 4-5 of the routes down pretty good compared to the 1-2 that Goodwin has.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

2. Listenbee's Route Tree is far more developed than Goodwin's ever was or is. TCU doesn't run a complicated offense but he's got 4-5 of the routes down pretty good compared to the 1-2 that Goodwin has.

Listenbee also has a bigger frame then Goodwin. Unless you are really slippery or lucky, 180 pounders seem to have trouble in the NFL. Listenbee is up in the ODB, Golden Tate, Jeremy Maclin, Robert Woods range at 197 so he should hopefully have an easier time surviving the season.

[cookie G]

It would be surprising if two rookies equalled Nigel's and even Mario's production. This and we did nothing for our 3rd down or passing defense. 2 steps sideways is optimistic.

That's why I said, "at best".

[cookie G]

Bradham: 57 total tackles, 42 solo, 1 sack

Mario: 19 total tackles, 15 solo, 5 Sacks

Pretty impossible to beat those powerhouse stats.

That's a pretty tunnel visioned view.

What you are needing to replace is the production they had before Rex got here and needlessly changed the defense.

Bad managers do that in companies all the time. They change a system where people are set up to fail and then try to use the newest numbers, under their own failed system, to justify their lack of productivity.

The true benchmark is their productivity before changes were made:

Bradham

104 tackles
6 passes defended
2 ff
1 int
2.5 sacks

Williams

42 tackles
14.5 sacks

That's how you have to measure this draft.

And I will ask again...how many "good" drafts will be needed to bring the D back to its 2014 level?

[DraftBoy]

That's a pretty tunnel visioned view.

What you are needing to replace is the production they had before Rex got here and needlessly changed the defense.

Bad managers do that in companies all the time. They change a system where people are set up to fail and then try to use the newest numbers, under their own failed system, to justify their lack of productivity.

The true benchmark is their productivity before changes were made:

Bradham

104 tackles
6 passes defended
2 ff
1 int
2.5 sacks

Williams

42 tackles
14.5 sacks

That's how you have to measure this draft.

And I will ask again...how many "good" drafts will be needed to bring the D back to its 2014 level?

2-3

[cookie G]

2-3

Which would put us at 0-18 to 0-19 in playoff appearances.

I LOVE THIS PLAN!!

[swiper]

Why stop there. Why not dig up the stats for Bruce Smith and Cornelius Bennet.

I'm looking at what Williams and Bradham did in Rex's scheme because that is the production that the rookies will be replacing.

And comparing them to two guys who haven't even seen the field yet? Ok. got it.

[DraftBoy]

Which would put us at 0-18 to 0-19 in playoff appearances.

I LOVE THIS PLAN!!

I'd stop counting personally. Makes it easier.

That and drinking.

[Night Train]

Anyone that wants to justify the play of Mario Williams, Bradham or Brown last year is reaching. Blaming the Rex D or something else doesn't cut it. They didn't hustle and missed a ton of tackles.

I don't expect rookies to be saviors or to elevate the overall level of effectiveness immediately... but many times, it seemed like were were playing with 7-8 guys on the field last year. Rex definitely has to do his part but actual effort as a D unit must improve. Drafting 3 talented guys at the top from winning programs is a good start.

[Mace]

Which would put us at 0-18 to 0-19 in playoff appearances.

I LOVE THIS PLAN!!

Sort of no way around it at this point though, Cookie. We're all in with Ryans.

[cookie G]

Sort of no way around it at this point though, Cookie. We're all in with Ryans.

Maybe we can change the name to the Buffalo Sisyphus

sisyphus-2.jpg

Every time the boulder rolls back down the mountain...yell "SCHEME CHANGE!!"

Actually, that would make a cool helmet logo.

[cookie G]

I'd stop counting personally. Makes it easier.

That and drinking.

Maybe instead of helmet decals for good plays, we could put decals on the helmets for each year we miss the playoffs. Maybe little Russ Brandon faces.

We'd look like the Buckeyes by now.

[Mace]

Maybe we can change the name to the Buffalo Sisyphus

sisyphus-2.jpg

Every time the boulder rolls back down the mountain...yell "SCHEME CHANGE!!"

Actually, that would make a cool helmet logo.

Probably have to yell "COACH CHANGE" first nowadays. I'm not real sure there are a lot of dynamic, adaptable coaches left these days.

[Mr. Pink]

Since DB brought up drinking, I'll give my opinion of this draft with a drinking kind of mind!

I'll give the draft a C+

I think Lawson will have an immediate impact in both pass defense and run defense. Ragland will be an excellent 2 down linebacker. Washington will have marginal impact as a rotational pass rusher.

After that, the rest of the draft is all misses. Jones will never play a down as a Buffalo Bill or anyone else for that matter. Williams, at best, will be a goal line/short yardage back for this team. Like him as a player, don't see the fit here to get his maximum potential out. Listenbee and Seymour won't make the team.

The problem really is that the first two picks are direct replacement players. So Shaq will be compared to how he plays vs Mario. Ragland will be compared to how he plays vs Brandon Spikes. I can see why the team let Mario go, he didn't fit, he pouted, he disappeared at times and had a high cost. But Spikes was cheap, why not just pay him and then use that second rounder to improve elsewhere?

Those two picks are so typical of Buffalo Bills moves. We don't improve, ever. We just make lateral moves. And those lateral moves are a big reason why this team hasn't even sniffed the playoffs in the 21st century. Spoiler alert - they won't sniff the playoffs this year either.

[stuckincincy]

The problem really is that the first two picks are direct replacement players. So Shaq will be compared to how he plays vs Mario. Ragland will be compared to how he plays vs Brandon Spikes. I can see why the team let Mario go, he didn't fit, he pouted, he disappeared at times and had a high cost. But Spikes was cheap, why not just pay him and then use that second rounder to improve elsewhere?

Those two picks are so typical of Buffalo Bills moves. We don't improve, ever. We just make lateral moves. And those lateral moves are a big reason why this team hasn't even sniffed the playoffs in the 21st century. Spoiler alert - they won't sniff the playoffs this year either.

Good post.

An irritant for me was the selection of that RB from Arkansas when OG Christian Westerman was available.

They threw a lot of eggs into the McCoy basket last season, that other Williams had a few moments, and they plucked James Wilder Jr. from CIN's PS a while back (and CIN certainly wanted to retain him). The only rationale I can see, is that they feel that McCoy, entering his 8th season, is approaching his "use by" date...so to speak.

I thought that the DT pick was ok. Fresh legs help and continuing to stock the interior DL pool makes sense. I wish they had the same thought about replenishing the OL prospects. A better thing than carrying an extra kicker for kickoffs in this day where the NFL has crippled that return game for injury reasons.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Ragland will be compared to how he plays vs Brandon Spikes. I can see why the team let Mario go, he didn't fit, he pouted, he disappeared at times and had a high cost. But Spikes was cheap, why not just pay him and then use that second rounder to improve elsewhere?

Spikes has a pending suspension and he wouldn't drop his salary demands last time. I don't know if he's changed his mind, but some players can be deluded about their own value.