2017 draft simulator

[Mace]

Last pre combine, I have fun with the simulator.

10: R1P10 CB TEEZ TABOR FLORIDA : Tabor is not your best press corner to stick man to man, but T-2 covers zones and might be perfect for him.

44: R2P12 S BUDDA BAKER WASHINGTON : Budda would hurt himself at SS, but he's my FS, with coverage and willingness to go after anyone who gets past anyone else.

75: R3P11 C ETHAN POCIC LSU : If there's one OL to take in this draft, I still think it's Pocic. I start him at RT, and see where he goes from there, future center, guard or RT, it's all good.

156: R5P12 DL DEANGELO BROWN LOUISVILLE : Still fond of this glorious DT beast. Dareus is put on notice if he even makes it that far without dorking up, Adolphus better step up his game and he's better than any of our other depth.

171: R5P27 QB CHAD KELLY OLE MISS : Always take a QB a round earlier people keep yelling at me (that's you, Jimmifli, so I did when I would have maybe skimped on Kelly until 6 and taken Xavier Rhodes early.

195: R6P11 S XAVIER WOODS LOUISIANA TECH : Starting SS, if it looks iffy I take him earlier.

I'd extend Corey Graham a year and dilute his salary with bonus as nickel safety and depth as needed, would make a point of trying to keep Zach Brown for this scheme, Ragland vs. Preston for the other LB zone, loser is trade bait or depth at that spot.

I'm obviously figuring T-2, and nothing better for that defense than 4 years of young competent secondary to try and work it. I'm still thinking TE is not compelling when we use them little because probably Taylor is still here, and if you can't find a WR or three in FA or UDFA with 3 WR coaches on staff you don't deserve one.

[YardRat]

I went to do one this morning and the simulator just kicked in immediately and starting drafting. I figured what the hell, let it roll and see what comes up. Don't know the board or needs they used, but here are the results...

1-Jamal Adams S
2-John Ross WR
3-Jordan Leggett TE (Pat Elflein C still on the board, that would have been my pick)

It went wonky after the fourth round and wouldn't continue. I'd be OK with S-WR-OL in the first three picks.

[cookie G]

Last pre combine, I have fun with the simulator.

10: R1P10 CB TEEZ TABOR FLORIDA : Tabor is not your best press corner to stick man to man, but T-2 covers zones and might be perfect for him.

44: R2P12 S BUDDA BAKER WASHINGTON : Budda would hurt himself at SS, but he's my FS, with coverage and willingness to go after anyone who gets past anyone else.
195: R6P11 S XAVIER WOODS LOUISIANA TECH : Starting SS, if it looks iffy I take him earlier.

I'm obviously figuring T-2, and nothing better for that defense than 4 years of young competent secondary to try and work it. I'm still thinking TE is not compelling when we use them little because probably Taylor is still here, and if you can't find a WR or three in FA or UDFA with 3 WR coaches on staff you don't deserve one.

Welcome back to Buffalo Mr. Jauron.

[Mr. Pink]

Decided to do one last mock until right before the draft for funsies!

10: R1P10
LB REUBEN FOSTER
ALABAMA

44: R2P12
LB ZACH CUNNINGHAM
VANDERBILT

75: R3P11
WR DEDE WESTBROOK
OKLAHOMA

156: R5P12
S LORENZO JEROME
SAINT FRANCIS

171: R5P27
OT DAN SKIPPER
ARKANSAS

195: R6P11
QB CHAD KELLY
MISSISSIPPI

Reuben Foster was way too much talent to pass up at the 10th pick plus right now with the uncertain status of the linebacker position made way too much sense. Same reason for taking Cunningham in round 2. After FA these two picks could extremely change based on what the team does although I don't know if I'd be able to pass on Foster either way.

DeDe Westbrook is a playmaker, period. Robert Woods is gone so Westbrook takes over the number 2 slot without much difficulty. He is quick off the line and gets good separation.

My fifth round picks are both projects who could look brilliant or both flame out. Jerome has some of the best ball hawking skills in this draft, has the hands of a WR but lacks ideal speed and may find himself in trouble if he relies too much on his instincts. He's a guy in a T-2 who could end up playing centerfield and get 8 INTs or be out of position constantly without the speed to catch up and get burned repeatedly or find himself not able to make the team. Skipper is a massive big body at tackle. A mauler. He'd be an asset in the run game but he'd need some work on pass pro and leverage. If he even gets average in the pass game on the right side, he's a starter.

Lastly, I had to jump on the Chad Kelly train because why not?

[Mace]

Welcome back to Buffalo Mr. Jauron.

You're a mean one.

But that's what I thought when they hired Frazier. No helping it now.

[YardRat]

10: R1P10

CB MARSHON LATTIMORE
OHIO STATE

44: R2P12

S BUDDA BAKER
WASHINGTON

75: R3P11

WR JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER
USC

156: R5P12

QB CHAD KELLY
MISSISSIPPI

171: R5P27

OT ERIK MAGNUSON
MICHIGAN

195: R6P11

EDGE TASHAWN BOWER
LSU

As much as I like big men early, I ended going with skills. Can't pass up Lattimore, Baker reminds me of Honey Badger (I'll take that), JuJu is a big bodied wide-out, I would have actually taken Kelly in the third but the sim has been consistently dropped him to 6th or even 7th so I kind of new he'd be there in the fifth, got a RT prospect with Magnuson and an OLB/edge rusher in Bower.

[Scumbag College]

I used CBS' Board on each one since they seem like the most reputable source.

I did a few...I'm a Draftnik and watch a bunch of college ball. So the first mock I did is with the scenario of Zach Brown re-signing and doing what I would do by a combination of filling needs and taking the BPA and most talented player available (Jonathan Allen fell to Buffalo somehow in this one)

10: R1P10
DL JONATHAN ALLEN
ALABAMA

44: R2P12
CB TEEZ TABOR
FLORIDA

75: R3P11
TE BUCKY HODGES
VIRGINIA TECH

156: R5P12
WR DEDE WESTBROOK
OKLAHOMA

171: R5P27
QB CHAD KELLY
OLE MISS

195: R6P11
S XAVIER WOODS
LOUISIANA TECH

Here's the one that I actually want to happen, signing Zach Thomas or not.

10: R1P10
TE O.J. HOWARD
ALABAMA

44: R2P12
CB FABIAN MOREAU
UCLA

75: R3P11
LB JARRAD DAVIS
FLORIDA

156: R5P12
WR KENNY GOLLADAY
NORTHERN ILLINOIS

171: R5P27
S JADAR JOHNSON
CLEMSON

195: R6P11
QB CHAD KELLY
OLE MISS


I could post every different scenario, but I think with a month of Free Agency left before the draft it's still a fluid situation.

[YardRat]

10: R1P10

EDGE HAASON REDDICK
TEMPLE

44: R2P12

S OBI MELIFONWU
CONNECTICUT

75: R3P11

WR ZAY JONES
EAST CAROLINA

157: R5P12

QB CHAD KELLY
OLE MISS

172: R5P27

OT SAM TEVI
UTAH

196: R6P11

CB DES LAWRENCE
NORTH CAROLINA

[cookie G]

Yeah, its that time isn't it. Not that it matters, but what the hell.

I'll preface this by saying I'd be planning on trading down to somewhere in the low 20's to get the other team's 2nd and 4th, plus their 1st, of course.

Preface 2, I'd consider Corey Davis at 10..but the ankle injury worries me. It would depend on what the doctor's had to say...(no, not the doctor's that said Shaq Lawson was fine).

Preface 3, I'd be wanting to take QB in the 2nd, but the times I ran this simulator, 3 or 4 were gone by the time I got to the 2nd round.

So I'll go with what I've got:

10: R1P10
QB PATRICK MAHOMES II
Texas Tech

Yeah, yeah, I know...a reach at 10. But if he turns out to be a franchise QB..its a steal.

He's not starting this year anyway. He'll spend a year learning to cut down on the side arm, behind the back, through the legs and 360 jump passes. Like a Brett Favre, you'll never eliminate them. The thing is about those passes, they are usually on target..but they won't be so much in the NFL. He'll also be working on not leaving a pocket so early. He's athletic and can run in the right circumstances...but not as good at evading a pass rusher as is thought.

What he has..a very good arm. Pretty good accuracy, the ability to go to his 3rd and 4th WR and a desire to throw the ball beyond the 1st down marker.


44: R2P12
WR ZAY JONES
EAST CAROLINA

He makes up for my skittishness on Corey Davis. He's already caught about 18.5 million passes when teams were gunning to stop him.

He made a few wow catches in the Senior Bowl game that were taken away.

Really good catch radius, a sub 4.5 40, 11 foot broad jump, 36 inch vertical. Around a 4 flat shuttle and a sub 7 second 3 cone, which is outstanding for a guy that's 6' 2"

He becomes the #2.

75: R3P11
S DESMOND KING
IOWA

Thorpe Award winner in 2015, people stopped throwing his way in 2016. Is he too slow for cb? Maybe..maybe not. Ran a 4.5, which isn't slow. Can make up for it with good hand use.

If not, he moves to safety and becomes a good one.

157: R5P12
OT STORM NORTON
TOLEDO

I like the name. 2 time All MAC on one of the most prolific O's in colleg football.

Nearly 6'8" the wingspan of a condor.

He doesn't start this year either. He spends time in the weight room getting stronger and works on keeping his body lower.

He plays on teh scout team offense where Jerry Hughes and Lorax teach him how to block Pro Bowl Caliber pass rushers. He needs to learn how to keep pass rushers from getting inside those long arms.

172: R5P27
CB JEREMY CUTRER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE

Originally supposed to attend LSU but ended up at a JUCO and later Middle Tenn.

Needs to put on weight, but turned heads at his Pro Day.

196: R6P11
G JESSAMEN DUNKER
TENNESSEE STATE


Transferred from Florida after stealing a scooter. Why? idk, I forgive him. I like the name Dunker.

Ran a sub 5 40 at the combine.

[YardRat]

I'm really hoping they trade down and acquire more picks also. I believe Mahomes has the smallest hands of the top 10 QB prospects, FWIW.

I ran across an article that will tickle your fancy, cookie...thought of you when I read it

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/0...-line-cowboys/

Can the Bills offensive line dethrone the Cowboys as NFL's best?

[cookie G]

I'm really hoping they trade down and acquire more picks also. I believe Mahomes has the smallest hands of the top 10 QB prospects, FWIW.

I ran across an article that will tickle your fancy, cookie...thought of you when I read it

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/0...-line-cowboys/

Can the Bills offensive line dethrone the Cowboys as NFL's best?

IN terms of run blocking, they might be on par with Dallas. In the past 2 years, Dizzy Gillisee has been the beneficiary of some of the most wide open holes a RB can dream of.

I don't consider it a "ground and pound" attack, which I equate with a "three yards and a cloud of dust" attack.

Ground and pound attacks don't have 29 runs over 20 yards in a season.

Its nothing like that. Its more of what I think Chip Kelly envisioned for a rushing attack in the NFL.

The rushing game plan for the past 2 years has been incredible.

Off balance lines
Misdirection
Keeping D's on their heels
The FB picking off the only defender that has a chance at a tackle.

On some of these long runs, the whole LB corps and secondary of the D is going the other way. ITs unorthodox, its creative and its working.

If you put the Roman playbook side by side with the Marrone-Hackett playbook for running the ball, you could easily call it How to Run in the NFL(and how not to run).

That's the good.

on the bad..

NFL's best, worst O-lines: Where do Cowboys and Seahawks rank?

31. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a strong running game with reasonable blocking numbers (19th in adjusted line yards), but the pass blocking is abysmal, ranking dead last in adjusted sack rate and 31st in pressure rate.

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/nfls-be...ry?id=44212949

There's no way I'd rank them 31st overall, but the pass blocking leaves much to be desired.

The left side of the line will only get so much better and its about average.

But the right side...yes, its abysmal.

MIller was better than he was his rookie year, but he was still well below average.
Mills is...terrible in pass pro.

31st in pressures allowed.

Think about that for a sec.

Minnesota lost 3/5 of their offensive line last year.
Cleveland gave away most of their line.
Seattle's in a known rebuilding phase.

And they are ALL better in pass pro than Buffalo.

People want to change to a passing team..but don't want to upgrade the right side of the line?

Good luck with that.

[Scumbag College]

I used CBS' list since it seems like a credible source.

I did another mock using what I thought McD would do (seeing that he looks like he might be calling the shots) and really thinking about this team. I think the offense is what it is...Sammy when he is healthy is a deep threat, Tyrod runs, Shady runs, Clay is around. I really think McD isn't happy with what he sees in his D personnel, and will try and upgrade here on draft day. I wrote a few notes, too.


10: R1P10
S JABRILL PEPPERS
MICHIGAN

I think with Hyde and Peppers the Bills D would be really versatile and tough to game plan for. With the emergence of the LB/S hybrids, having two on the field would be a new wrinkle for opposing offenses to plan against. Plus, it looks like the 4-2-5 is what we are going to see more often than not in 2017, and Peppers and Hyde on the field with Poyer playing a deep safety position looks to be what we might see from the Bills.

44: R2P12
CB TEEZ TABOR
FLORIDA

Opening day starter with first round talent. Not much of a tackler and really needs to get tougher with that, but if you can get a Day 1 starter in the second round you have to jump on that.

75: R3P11
WR ZAY JONES
EAST CAROLINA

I really find it hard to believe that a guy that is ready to play significantly from Opening Day is around this late in the draft, but it happens. He immediately would see plenty of playing time and pushes Holmes, Philly Brown, et al for snaps. Long term he could be a real answer at WR.

156: R5P12
TE JONNU SMITH
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

Athletic TE with four years of experience and production. Decent run blocker that could also see some real playing time in 2017 and cause matchup problems.

171: R5P27
EDGE HUNTER DIMICK
UTAH

Athletic kid that can add depth at DE. There isn't much depth at DE but at this point in the draft would be the most ready to play if needed.

195: R6P11
DL STEVIE TU'IKOLOVATU
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

Big and athletic for his size, mature player that could come in and spell fat Dareus and add a new wrinkle to the D.

No QB drafted...I think Peterman goes early in the third or maybe the second before the Bills pick. The simulator isn't perfect but if things broke this way, this is what I would do.

[YardRat]

OK, here's my 'pull one out of your ass' using CBS and featuring two trade downs in the first round.
Trade #1-Our #10 for Cleveland's second first-rounder (#12) and their second second-rounder (#52)...Trubisky or Watson are there at 10, and the Browns want one of them.
Trade #2-The #12 we got from Cleveland to Tampa Bay for their first (#19), fourth (#125) and seventh (#237) (OJ Howard or Fournette to Bucs at 12??)

1-19-OLB Zach Cunningham, Vanderbilt (play-making athletic beast)
2-44-DE Carl Lawson, Auburn (speed and strength, if he can remain healthy, and we need DE's)
2-52-WR Chris Godwin, Penn State (decent size and speed, goes up for the ball)
3-75-CB Quincy Wilson, Florida (I like him better than Tabor)
4-125-C Pat Elflein, Ohio State (surprised he dropped this far, good G/C depth that should become starting material.)
5-156-QB Chad Kelly, Ol' Miss (still don't think he'll last this long, but)
5-171-S Jadar Johnson, Clemson (missed out on Xavier Woods by a round)
6-195-TE Moe Alie Cox, VCU (Why not? It's a sixth, for chrissakes)
7-237-OLB Javancy Jones, Jackson State (Special teamer)

[YardRat]

My wish list---

DT Jonathon Allen, SS Jamal Adams, LB Zach Cunningham, OT Ryan Ramczck
CB Kevin King, S Budda Baker, DE Carl Lawson, WR Chris Godwin
C Pat Elflein, WR Zay Jones, C Ethan Pocic, QB Chad Kelly
SS Xaviar Woods, TE Jeremy Sprinkle, OT Sam Tevi, SS Jadar Johnson
WR Amba Etta-Tawo, CB Brandon Wilson, LB Tashawn Bower, OT Erik Magnuson
TE Moe Allie-Cox, WR Jamari Staples, LB Javancy Jones, CB Des Lawrence

[Mace]

My wish list---

DT Jonathon Allen, SS Jamal Adams, LB Zach Cunningham, OT Ryan Ramczck
CB Kevin King, S Budda Baker, DE Carl Lawson, WR Chris Godwin
C Pat Elflein, WR Zay Jones, C Ethan Pocic, QB Chad Kelly
SS Xaviar Woods, TE Jeremy Sprinkle, OT Sam Tevi, SS Jadar Johnson
WR Amba Etta-Tawo, CB Brandon Wilson, LB Tashawn Bower, OT Erik Magnuson
TE Moe Allie-Cox, WR Jamari Staples, LB Javancy Jones, CB Des Lawrence

I'd probably only add CB Lattimore,T Taylor Moton, QB Nathan Peterman, and Jabrill Peppers for flavor.

I want them to trade down, but somehow I keep going back to being interested in Peppers possibilities, thinking nickel safety over nickel corner, similar to Budda Baker.

[YardRat]

I'd like a trade down also. Maybe two. Lattimore's youth/lack of experience and leg issues are starting to concern me a little bit.

[Mace]

I'd like a trade down also. Maybe two. Lattimore's youth/lack of experience and leg issues are starting to concern me a little bit.

My ideal btw would be a trade down and Cunningham.

[Mace]

If anyone ever wants to feel like a kid in a candy store, draft as the Browns.

[Scumbag College]

I've been back and forth about filling holes vs. getting talent and playmakers. CB you would think is a huge need, but I think Kevon Seymour fits what McD's D wants in a CB and I think they roll the dice that he can start opposite Darby. The Bills lost both starting safeties, but Hyde and Pryor are going to make up for that. WR is going to be thin again, but the Bills aren't going to be going with the 4 WR Run and Shoot and Holmes, Brown, et al are fine with what the Bills are doing on offense. . I think that the Bills can get talent and really need to think big with this draft.

So here it goes, using Walter Football's rankings:

10: R1P10
TE O.J. HOWARD
ALABAMA

The more I think about it, someone is going to take OJ Howard before the Bills. He's too gifted athletically and with the success that teams have been using with multiple TE sets and the matchup problems that they bring that he'll be gone by the time the Bills draft. But if he's there...the Bills can't pass him by.

44: R2P12
LB ZACH CUNNINGHAM
VANDERBILT

My favorite LB in the draft, reminds me of Thomas Davis but bigger and faster. He is immediately the Day 1 starter at OLB and will be a big piece of the D.

75: R3P11
CB AHKELLO WITHERSPOON
COLORADO

Big and fast, I think he can let Darby kick inside on the slot and play outside in the nickel. Would contribute immediately.

156: R5P12
QB BRAD KAAYA
MIAMI

I like Kaaya's game and QBs are tricky as to when and where they go after the first and second waves of QBs go. There isn't a huge amount of difference between Kaaya, Trubinsky and Mahomes IMHO, and the Bills can take a flyer on him here and figure out what to do with Yates, Cardale, and him in Training Camp.

163: R5P19
RB SAMAJE PERINE
OKLAHOMA

Karlos Williams clone...except he's a team player, hard worker, and not a total idiot. We'd be lucky to land him.

171: R5P27
S JADAR JOHNSON
CLEMSON

Isn't everything you want in an NFL safety but would probably be the top backup sometime during the season. Let him come in and play on Special Teams, might not contribute right away in sub-packages but will get better in time.

195: R6P11
DL RYAN GLASGOW
MICHIGAN

He's a total Kyle Williams clone and a winner. Would contribute here and there but I think he sticks in the NFL for a long time.

[Mace]

My last call, like how it panned out. Wouldn't bet those players are available at those slots, but I'll take what the script gives me.

10: R1P10

S JAMAL ADAMS
LSU

44: R2P12

LB JARRAD DAVIS
FLORIDA

75: R3P11

CB TEEZ TABOR
FLORIDA

156: R5P12

RB JAMES CONNER
PITTSBURGH

163: R5P19

TE JEREMY SPRINKLE
ARKANSAS

171: R5P27

WR KENNY GOLLADAY
NORTHERN ILLINOIS

195: R6P11

QB CHAD KELLY
OLE MISS

S Adams, LB Davis and CB Tabor immediately upgrade the D and change the tone of it. Means we can afford the not glamorous smasher RB Conner, and solid worker bee TE Sprinkle. Big, athletic, fast Golladay is tuned up by the multiple assistants with WR backgrounds and develops, and I roll the dice on Kelly because wth.