IMO - Bills will bring Fitzpatrick back

[Arm of Harm]

Cherry picking.



Bledsoe had the best year of his career in his first year with Buffalo. Yet the Bills don't deserve credit for trying..



Where are these analyses? Who is analyzing teams 1st draft pick but being completely oblivious to their 1st round picks?



The same logic is used with Hunter/Kelly that is used with Collins, only there are more drafted players in between. Using a 2nd round pick we were able to get better value, but it just doesn't show up on your list. It's classic statistical cherry picking 101. Use a bogus statistic without seeing logic/reason as to why the statistic is/isn't reasonable.

The Bills absolutely do not deserve credit for "trying" with Bledsoe, because the Bledsoe trade did not represent an attempt to find a long-term answer at the QB position.

Todd Collins was neither a first round pick nor the Bills' first pick of the draft. A refusal to categorize him as a "first pick of the draft" is not statistical cherry picking. It is basic logic.

If you used a 6th round selection on a punter, and if no punters were picked between your first round pick and your selection in the sixth round, does this mean you used your first pick of the draft on a punter? No, of course it doesn't mean that. It means you didn't use your first pick of the draft on a punter, and that it wouldn't have made sense to have done so. The fact it wouldn't have made sense for the Bills to have used their first pick of the draft on Todd Collins doesn't mean he was their first pick of the draft.

[Arm of Harm]

If you counted the pick traded away for Johnson, then you have to count the pick traded away to select Losman.

With Losman, you have two choices. 1) Look at where he was actually drafted. 2) Look at what the Bills traded away to get the draft pick in question.

The Bills drafted Losman, so I chose option 1. Look at the pick itself, not what was traded away for the pick. Option 1 is always going to be simple and straightforward, at least when it's available. Whereas option 2 can create all sorts of complexity, depending on the trade. Maybe you acquire a first round pick by trading away veteran players. Or maybe you trade a top-5 pick for two picks later on in the first round. Or maybe you trade this year's picks for next year's, or vice versa. My rule of thumb is use option 1 if possible, option 2 only if necessary.

[Joe Fo Sho]

The Bills absolutely do not deserve credit for "trying" with Bledsoe, because the Bledsoe trade did not represent an attempt to find a long-term answer at the QB position.

Drew Bledsoe turned 30 just 2 months before we traded for him. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think we could have a starting caliber QB for 5 years. I guess if we don't get 15 years out of someone they're worthless. 47% of the starting QBs in the NFL last year were 30 years old or older, it's not a death sentence like other positions.


"Hey guys, we seem to be terrible at finding Kelly's replacement. Do you want to trade for a known quantity for a handful of years while we continue to search?"

"Nope, that's stupid. Let's just keep starting the same garbage at QB over and over again."

Todd Collins was neither a first round pick nor the Bills' first pick of the draft. A refusal to categorize him as a "first pick of the draft" is not statistical cherry picking. It is basic logic.

But don't you understand how a logical person should interpret it as the same thing in reality? It shows that the data your using is misleading. You only count Kelly as 1/2 point because he was taken TWO PICKS after our 1st selection. There's absolutely no difference. Not to mention how ridiculous it is that you don't count Losman. Losman cost the Bills their 1st selection in 2005 and their 2nd selection in 2004. There's no other way to interpret that, unless you choose to interpret it incorrectly. Losman deserves to count as our 1st selection in 2005.

If you used a 6th round selection on a punter, and if no punters were picked between your first round pick and your selection in the sixth round, does this mean you used your first pick of the draft on a punter? No, of course it doesn't mean that. It means you didn't use your first pick of the draft on a punter, and that it wouldn't have made sense to have done so. The fact it wouldn't have made sense for the Bills to have used their first pick of the draft on Todd Collins doesn't mean he was their first pick of the draft.

Right, you didn't use your 1st pick. That doesn't mean you didn't get the best punter available at the time when you had your 1st selection. If you choose to live in reality, you could say that we got a 1st selection caliber punter in the 6th round. Don't you see how '1st selection' doesn't mean much? It doesn't take into account the quality of the player that we would have selected. If we took a QB as our 1st selection, who would've been on the board in the 4th round, it should count as a negative thing.

I'm just saying, the data that you chose to consider is misleading and not representative of real life. You're giving the Bills 100% credit if they took a QB with their 1st pick, and 0% credit if they took one 10 picks after their 1st pick. That's a ridiculous set of data to be considering when it doesn't work like that in the real world.

[Joe Fo Sho]

With Losman, you have two choices. 1) Look at where he was actually drafted. 2) Look at what the Bills traded away to get the draft pick in question.

The Bills drafted Losman, so I chose option 1. Look at the pick itself, not what was traded away for the pick. Option 1 is always going to be simple and straightforward, at least when it's available. Whereas option 2 can create all sorts of complexity, depending on the trade.

Complexity? The Losman trade was anything but complex. At the beginning of the day, the Bills had a 2005 1 round pick and a 2004 2nd round pick. At the end of the day, they had a person named JP Losman and not a 2005 1st round pick or a 2004 2nd round pick. It's the kind of math you learn in elementary school.

My rule of thumb is use option 1 if possible, option 2 only if necessary.

"If option 1 fits my argument, I use that. If it doesn't, I use option 2."

[trapezeus]

When are veteran QB arrives and EJ is gone, you'll be like wow was MMD right. This is going to happen soon enough, you heard it here first. EJ is worthless & his roster spot has more value than him.

you keep saying this about roster spot value. but the issue is for a cap strapped team, you can't throw away dead money by cutting EJ

[trapezeus]

more to my point, having a reliable backup is the thing a good football team does. one that is established and has high hopes of being in the final game of the post season.

The bills aren't realistically built like that. their floor is to be a 2 win team and their ceiling is to be a playoff team. that's not pessimism. that's actually the line most of the bills FO and coaching staff say. so if you are close to the cap with such a pathetic goal of doing something every other team has done at least once in the last 16 years, you don't need a back up QB. you need a more competitive team. and the money available has to go to building that team. To bring in a journeyman and pay him, plus the dead money on EJ is fairly reckless.

[Skooby]

Drew Bledsoe turned 30 just 2 months before we traded for him. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think we could have a starting caliber QB for 5 years. I guess if we don't get 15 years out of someone they're worthless. 47% of the starting QBs in the NFL last year were 30 years old or older, it's not a death sentence like other positions.


"Hey guys, we seem to be terrible at finding Kelly's replacement. Do you want to trade for a known quantity for a handful of years while we continue to search?"

"Nope, that's stupid. Let's just keep starting the same garbage at QB over and over again."



But don't you understand how a logical person should interpret it as the same thing in reality? It shows that the data your using is misleading. You only count Kelly as 1/2 point because he was taken TWO PICKS after our 1st selection. There's absolutely no difference. Not to mention how ridiculous it is that you don't count Losman. Losman cost the Bills their 1st selection in 2005 and their 2nd selection in 2004. There's no other way to interpret that, unless you choose to interpret it incorrectly. Losman deserves to count as our 1st selection in 2005.



Right, you didn't use your 1st pick. That doesn't mean you didn't get the best punter available at the time when you had your 1st selection. If you choose to live in reality, you could say that we got a 1st selection caliber punter in the 6th round. Don't you see how '1st selection' doesn't mean much? It doesn't take into account the quality of the player that we would have selected. If we took a QB as our 1st selection, who would've been on the board in the 4th round, it should count as a negative thing.

I'm just saying, the data that you chose to consider is misleading and not representative of real life. You're giving the Bills 100% credit if they took a QB with their 1st pick, and 0% credit if they took one 10 picks after their 1st pick. That's a ridiculous set of data to be considering when it doesn't work like that in the real world.

Kelly showing up to Buffalo a few years after being drafted basically knocks out the 1/2 credit to me anyways, there was no guarantee of him coming to Buffalo and there was a major amount of apprehension on his part to even show up (which people always forget). Sure he's a local hero now but he was a ? / no show for a while.

[Skooby]

you keep saying this about roster spot value. but the issue is for a cap strapped team, you can't throw away dead money by cutting EJ

You can't throw away the season on a bad back-up QB playing in a few games as well.

[Skooby]

more to my point, having a reliable backup is the thing a good football team does. one that is established and has high hopes of being in the final game of the post season.

The bills aren't realistically built like that. their floor is to be a 2 win team and their ceiling is to be a playoff team. that's not pessimism. that's actually the line most of the bills FO and coaching staff say. so if you are close to the cap with such a pathetic goal of doing something every other team has done at least once in the last 16 years, you don't need a back up QB. you need a more competitive team. and the money available has to go to building that team. To bring in a journeyman and pay him, plus the dead money on EJ is fairly reckless.

I beg to differ, I think the Bills can make top 5 offense easily & our defense should be much better. That's a formula for 11 wins, maybe 12. I know that sounds homeristic but if Rex and crew put that together, there's some job security. Right now, we are one TT injury from 6 wins at best. That's a gulf that must be bridged, it's also well known by the management & scares that daylights out of them. You'll hear about it soon.

[trapezeus]

TT healthy, the team is a 6-7 win team. they can overachieve to 9-10 if everything goes their way. there is no leader on the team. when the d went sideways and then south, no one stood up and stopped it. maybe ed reed can help with that, but there has to be a player that takes than mantle, and no one has don e it yet.

maybe its coming. but this team is squarely a 7 win team in my opinion.

if TT goes down, I don't want to win 2 more games. I want to lose out. because TT won't be here next year, there will be no qb to realistically bank on. you want to be at the bottom of th league and not fighting for meaningless wins. you want to pic a qb without having to trade up to get him because that meas the won'tbuild the rest of the roster and we'll be looking at 21-22 yearsof no playoffs.

of all the teams we've had in the last 16 years, this isn't one to be excited about. last years had reasons to be optimistic because of the unknowns of a solid d and a d focsed coach. This year, they are what they've historically been. mediocre.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Kelly showing up to Buffalo a few years after being drafted basically knocks out the 1/2 credit to me anyways, there was no guarantee of him coming to Buffalo and there was a major amount of apprehension on his part to even show up (which people always forget). Sure he's a local hero now but he was a ? / no show for a while.

Yeah, the Bills front office deserves hardly any credit for Kelly. He only played here 11 years, they should have been thinking more long term than that. Plus, we waited until the 14th pick to take him. If they were at all serious about the QB position, they would have taken him at 12.

[Skooby]

Yeah, the Bills front office deserves hardly any credit for Kelly. He only played here 11 years, they should have been thinking more long term than that. Plus, we waited until the 14th pick to take him. If they were at all serious about the QB position, they would have taken him at 12.

That's not my point, Kelly coming to Buffalo was a lucky break and not an assured. You give them all the credit you want but we were lucky to have it break that way for us, not much luck since but lets praise the powers that be for one lucky break in decades.

[Skooby]

TT healthy, the team is a 6-7 win team. they can overachieve to 9-10 if everything goes their way. there is no leader on the team. when the d went sideways and then south, no one stood up and stopped it. maybe ed reed can help with that, but there has to be a player that takes than mantle, and no one has don e it yet.

maybe its coming. but this team is squarely a 7 win team in my opinion.

if TT goes down, I don't want to win 2 more games. I want to lose out. because TT won't be here next year, there will be no qb to realistically bank on. you want to be at the bottom of th league and not fighting for meaningless wins. you want to pic a qb without having to trade up to get him because that meas the won'tbuild the rest of the roster and we'll be looking at 21-22 yearsof no playoffs.

of all the teams we've had in the last 16 years, this isn't one to be excited about. last years had reasons to be optimistic because of the unknowns of a solid d and a d focsed coach. This year, they are what they've historically been. mediocre.

We can agree to disagree, I see quite a bit of offensive success possible and therefore a decent chance at a successful season. For the management & coaching, there's no real choice but that as well. Desperation makes for great motivation, you'll see soon.

[Joe Fo Sho]

That's not my point, Kelly coming to Buffalo was a lucky break and not an assured.

Yeah, who would've imagined that the USFL wouldn't be able to compete with the NFL? Only a lucky idiot no good front office.

You give them all the credit you want but we were lucky to have it break that way for us, not much luck since but lets praise the powers that be for one lucky break in decades.

How have I praised the Bills for how they've handled the QB position? Have you read anything I wrote? What about when I said this?

Now don't get me wrong, I don't think the Bills have handled the QB position well. They've actually been terrible, just the worst.

You should read some of this thread. Left to right, top to bottom if you forgot.

[Skooby]

Yeah, who would've imagined that the USFL wouldn't be able to compete with the NFL? Only a lucky idiot no good front office.



How have I praised the Bills for how they've handled the QB position? Have you read anything I wrote? What about when I said this?



You should read some of this thread. Left to right, top to bottom if you forgot.

So what your saying Jim Kelly was assured to come to Buffalo ?? How old are you ?

[Joe Fo Sho]

So what your saying Jim Kelly was assured to come to Buffalo ?? How old are you ?

Sigh...

There's risk involved with draft picks. Jim Kelly had risks, Bruce Smith had risks, Aaron Maybin had risks.

The front office was lucky that Jim came to Buffalo like they were unlucky that Maybin was worse than a bag of peckers.

[Arm of Harm]

Drew Bledsoe turned 30 just 2 months before we traded for him. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think we could have a starting caliber QB for 5 years. I guess if we don't get 15 years out of someone they're worthless. 47% of the starting QBs in the NFL last year were 30 years old or older, it's not a death sentence like other positions.


"Hey guys, we seem to be terrible at finding Kelly's replacement. Do you want to trade for a known quantity for a handful of years while we continue to search?"

"Nope, that's stupid. Let's just keep starting the same garbage at QB over and over again."



But don't you understand how a logical person should interpret it as the same thing in reality? It shows that the data your using is misleading. You only count Kelly as 1/2 point because he was taken TWO PICKS after our 1st selection. There's absolutely no difference. Not to mention how ridiculous it is that you don't count Losman. Losman cost the Bills their 1st selection in 2005 and their 2nd selection in 2004. There's no other way to interpret that, unless you choose to interpret it incorrectly. Losman deserves to count as our 1st selection in 2005.



Right, you didn't use your 1st pick. That doesn't mean you didn't get the best punter available at the time when you had your 1st selection. If you choose to live in reality, you could say that we got a 1st selection caliber punter in the 6th round. Don't you see how '1st selection' doesn't mean much? It doesn't take into account the quality of the player that we would have selected. If we took a QB as our 1st selection, who would've been on the board in the 4th round, it should count as a negative thing.

I'm just saying, the data that you chose to consider is misleading and not representative of real life. You're giving the Bills 100% credit if they took a QB with their 1st pick, and 0% credit if they took one 10 picks after their 1st pick. That's a ridiculous set of data to be considering when it doesn't work like that in the real world.

The Bills had at least three choices going into the 2002 season:
1) Rob Johnson
2) Trade away a first round pick for Drew Bledsoe
3) Suck it up for a year with Alex van Pelt

Of those options, the correct one was 3). Suck it up for a year with Alex van Pelt under center, go 1-15 or 0-16, and then use the first overall pick of the 2003 draft on Carson Palmer. But TD was not the type of guy willing to endure short-term pain (van Pelt) in exchange for a long-term gain (Palmer). TD always looked for the quick fix. For him, going into the 2002 season with van Pelt as his starting quarterback was simply not an option. Expending a first round pick on a short-term, stopgap, quick fix solution at the QB position is not the same as using your first pick of the draft to draft a quarterback. It's absurd to suggest the two should ever be conflated.

Todd Collins was neither a first round pick nor the Bills' first pick of the draft. In 1995, it wouldn't have made sense for the Bills to have used their first pick of the draft on Collins. That doesn't mean that Collins was their "first pick of the draft." Because I was willing to give the Bills an inch WRT the '83 draft, you seem absolutely determined to give them a mile with respect to Collins.

It should be fairly obvious to anyone that each team can have only one first pick of the draft per year. The 1983 draft is no exception. Your two choices for the '83 draft are to either a) award 100% of the credit to TE, or b) divide the credit up, with 50% going to TE and 50% going to QB. If you're looking at 40 years worth of draft data, there need to be exactly 40 first picks of the draft. You don't get to arbitrarily inflate that number according to your own whim. (Which is what you're doing both with regard to the '83 draft and with respect to Todd Collins.)

In 2004, the Bills had the opportunity to use their first pick of the draft on a QB. Doing so would have required them to trade up for Roethlisberger. However, TD thought that Houston's asking price for their draft pick was too high. So instead he opted to save on draft picks by drafting Lee Evans, then by drafting Losman later in the first round. TD's decision there reinforces, rather than undermines, my point that the Bills have not placed sufficient emphasis on the QB position on draft day. If you have a chance to draft a franchise QB, taking advantage of that opportunity is far more important than an attempt to save on picks.

[trapezeus]

I try to give every new regime a window of trust until they lose it. rex lost it in kc. and he was exposed as a guy who just says big things and has no idea how to accomplish them. he gets scared in the big moments and then apologizes for not being prepared. if you had to bet on a staff that had their stuff together and could do the impossible, this isn't the one you'd put money on .

[Skooby]

I try to give every new regime a window of trust until they lose it. rex lost it in kc. and he was exposed as a guy who just says big things and has no idea how to accomplish them. he gets scared in the big moments and then apologizes for not being prepared. if you had to bet on a staff that had their stuff together and could do the impossible, this isn't the one you'd put money on .

http://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/no-...y-out-of-a-job

[Mr. Pink]

Kelly showing up to Buffalo a few years after being drafted basically knocks out the 1/2 credit to me anyways, there was no guarantee of him coming to Buffalo and there was a major amount of apprehension on his part to even show up (which people always forget). Sure he's a local hero now but he was a ? / no show for a while.

If the USFL never folded, Kelly would have never played a down for the Buffalo Bills.