Bills Playoff Scenarios!

[Ed]

I know you're mad right now, but what better way to cheer yourself up than to run down the playoff scenario rabbit hole. Get excited, we can still make it!

It's probably obvious to everyone, but the Bills only real chance of getting in involves winning out as usual. It's mathematically possible to get in at 9-7, but that would require so much help and is so unlikely that it's not worth discussing. However, if they do actually finish 10-6, which I know is unlikely, their chances of getting in are actually pretty good. There really aren't that many realistic tie-breaking scenarios. So assuming the Bills win out there are only a few things that need to happen for the Bills to make it as a WC:

1) The Dolphins need to lose one of their other three games. It doesn't matter which one. If the Fins lose to the Bills, but finish 10-6 they would win the tie-breaker based on division record. So they need to lose one additional game against Arizona, the Jets, or NE. I think they're going to lose this weekend and to NE, so I think it's pretty likely that they do no better than 9-7.

2) Baltimore needs to lose one of their three remaining games not including their game against Pitt, or just beat Pitt. Since Baltimore plays at NE this Monday night I think it's likely they lose. And since Baltimore and Pitt still play one more time, there's no way both can get to 10-6 if they both lose this weekend. The only way the Bills lose a tie-breaker to the NFC North at 10-6 is if Baltimore loses to Pitt, but wins their other three and Pitt loses to us, but wins their other three also. Both would be 10-6, Pitt would win the division with a better division record, and Baltimore would win the head to head against the Bills. But as long as Baltimore loses at NE this week, the Bills would control their own destiny against the North and tie-breakers would be irrelevant.

3) The AFC South has three teams tied at 6-6. We just need the Colts or Titans to lose one more game. The Texans still play both the Titans and Colts so there's no way all three can finish 10-6, and it's highly unlikely that the Colts and Titans run the table and both finish 10-6. The Colts and Titans both winning out is the only scenario where the Bills would lose a tie-breaker. The Colts would win the division based on sweeping the Titans and the tie-breaker between the Bills and Titans would come down to common opponent since both teams would be 7-5 in the AFC. Titans would be 4-1 against common opponents and the Bills would be 3-2. However, the Titans and Colts both have really tough schedules, so it's highly unlikely either team goes 10-6 let alone both. 9-7 or even 8-8 will likely end up being good enough to win the South.

4) The Broncos need to lose to NE and Oakland. If they lose those two games, they would finish 10-6 and be 7-5 in the AFC. Tie-breaker would come down to common opponent, which the Bills would win against Denver since the Bills are 3-2 and the Broncos would be 2-3. If they win one of those two, but still finish 10-6, the tie-breaker would go to SOV, which I think the Bills would probably lose. So the Bills just need the Broncos to lose to the two best teams in the AFC, or lose any 3 of their last 4. Considering that the Broncos last three games are against the three best teams in the AFC (NE, KC, and Oakland) and they might have to start Paxton Lynch (who has not looked good) at Tennessee, they could be in trouble.

I know the odds are still heavily against the Bills making it, but it's not as impossible as some might think. The fact that they have to win out always makes it unlikely, but these games definitely aren't meaningless. As long as they win this week, they're still very much in it no matter what happens in any other game. But it would be ideal if:

Buffalo beats Pitt (Pitt favored by 1.5)
Arizona beats Miami (Miami is favored by 1.0)
NE beats Baltimore (NE is favored by 7.0)
Houston beats Indy (Indy favored by 6.0)
Tenn beats Denver (Tenn favored by 1.0)

Don't give up just yet. A win against Pitt allows us to fight off going into full-on offseason mode for at least one more week. Go Bills!

[DynaPaul]

Can you do a scenario where I bang Kate Upton? Because the odds are about the same.

[Ed]

I know the odds aren't good, but unless you're NE, Oakland, or KC, the odds aren't really that great for anyone. Every other team still in the hunt has an uphill battle to get that last WC spot.

[trapezeus]

it's so clear the bills lose to the steelers at home and preferably to a few back ups to really smooth our entry into year 17 of the drought. and that loss will kill any chance of playoffs.

[Ed]

it's so clear the bills lose to the steelers at home and preferably to a few back ups to really smooth our entry into year 17 of the drought. and that loss will kill any chance of playoffs.

Yeah, if they can't beat the Steelers this weekend everything else becomes irrelevant. But we get to see at least one more meaningful December game.

[trapezeus]

bills are walking into a lion's den on sunday. bills fans will have sold a lot of tickets to steeler fans and the bills fans that show up are ready to boo any negative play. when that scenario presents itself, annually, the bills completely implode and its just a lot of cut aways to the sidelines of the bills players and coaches looking depressed. I am ready for it and therefore will not be as hurt as I got back in 2004-5-6 when it happened.

[Novacane]

8-8. No playoffs.

[SpikedLemonade]

Can you do a scenario where I bang Kate Upton? Because the odds are about the same.

[feldspar]

Can you do a scenario where I bang Kate Upton? Because the odds are about the same.

Does the Kate Upton scenario need to exclude the possibility of you getting pummeled by her bodyguard afterward?

Because I'm pretty sure there are ways to kiss her for sure. Start by asking for her autograph during some sort of public appearance...you could even ask her real nicely to give you a peck...

Look, all I'm saying is that the odds are greater of your kissing Kate Upton than the Bills' chance of making the playoffs. Cuz I'm pretty sure you can find a way to kiss Kate Upton. I'd say no if I were her, but that doesn't matter.

[Skooby]

She has bad breathe I read and the Bills will be lucky to beat the Steelers, we are going to get out-coached for sure.

[Albany,n.y.]

Personally, I don't care if the Bills make the playoffs or don't. The reason is this team is not a Super Bowl contender. If they were to get into the playoffs, they could never advance to the Super Bowl. Look at the games they've played so far. Outside of the game at New England against an injured 3rd string rookie QB, they haven't beaten a decent team. I want to make the playoffs when the Bills have a legitimate team, Bills 2016 are good enough to beat some of the worst teams in the league like SF, Jax & most likely Cleveland but can't beat any decent team. A playoff game would be an embarrassment. Here are the records of the teams the Bills have beaten: Jacksonville 2-10 Cincinnati: 4-7-1, Arizona 5-6-1, Los Angeles 4-8, San Francisco 1-11 and New England (with Brissett) 10-2. Take out NE & the combined record of the other 5 teams is 16-42-2.
So go ahead & get psyched when we play Cleveland and think about playoffs, but for me making or not making the playoffs is irrelevant until we get a better team.

[Skooby]

Make the playoffs, things can happen. The Giants had a good run to finish the season a few years ago and played a 18-0 team, they won. Having a chance versus being eliminated before it starts is still having a chance.

[OpIv37]

Personally, I don't care if the Bills make the playoffs or don't. The reason is this team is not a Super Bowl contender. If they were to get into the playoffs, they could never advance to the Super Bowl. Look at the games they've played so far. Outside of the game at New England against an injured 3rd string rookie QB, they haven't beaten a decent team. I want to make the playoffs when the Bills have a legitimate team, Bills 2016 are good enough to beat some of the worst teams in the league like SF, Jax & most likely Cleveland but can't beat any decent team. A playoff game would be an embarrassment. Here are the records of the teams the Bills have beaten: Jacksonville 2-10 Cincinnati: 4-7-1, Arizona 5-6-1, Los Angeles 4-8, San Francisco 1-11 and New England (with Brissett) 10-2. Take out NE & the combined record of the other 5 teams is 16-42-2.
So go ahead & get psyched when we play Cleveland and think about playoffs, but for me making or not making the playoffs is irrelevant until we get a better team.

Due to the youth on this team and the long playoff drought, there is very little playoff experience on the roster. I think McCoy went with Philly, Graham went with Baltimore, Hughes may have gone with Indy, that's pretty much it. You're right that we haven't beaten anyone good and a playoff spot would most likely end in a first round loss to a much better team, but I think the experience is invaluable.

That being said, it's completely irrelevant cuz we aren't making it.

[k-oneputt]

She has bad breathe I read and the Bills will be lucky to beat the Steelers, we are going to get out-coached for sure.

I don't know about out-coached. Tomlin is just as bad as Rex as a gameday coach.
That qb thingy may be a difference.

[DynaPaul]

Does the Kate Upton scenario need to exclude the possibility of you getting pummeled by her bodyguard afterward?

Because I'm pretty sure there are ways to kiss her for sure. Start by asking for her autograph during some sort of public appearance...you could even ask her real nicely to give you a peck...

Look, all I'm saying is that the odds are greater of your kissing Kate Upton than the Bills' chance of making the playoffs. Cuz I'm pretty sure you can find a way to kiss Kate Upton. I'd say no if I were her, but that doesn't matter.

I said bang, who cares about a kiss?

[feldspar]

I said bang, who cares about a kiss?

Baby steps, son

[BillsImpossible]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

If the Bills win 4 straight, they're in.

[Skooby]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

If the Bills win 4 straight, they're in.

You'd think.

[Mace]

Can you do a scenario where I bang Kate Upton? Because the odds are about the same.

-Post production work on her movie "The Layover" about two friends taking a road trip together runs into a snag. Director William H. Macy & writers David Hornsby & Lance Krall decide they want to reshoot a scene. They need the perfect 7-11, Macy remembers one.

-The related cast and crew are quickly assembled save one, Kate Upton. She has a yoga class but will hurry there after.

- A terrible freak snowstorm begins.

- The yoga class is delayed when the teacher has a leotard misfunction, hurrying to help from the kindness of her heart, Upton's iPhone breaks terribly against the brick wall. The class is delayed, but then continues just long enough....

- The limo driver thinks he's been stiffed, Lady Gaga is his next assignment, everyone knows how cranky she gets, he leaves when there is no response from Upton's phone.

- The snowstorm is enough for director Macy to call off the filming. Everyone is called but Upton, her phone is broken.

- Hurrying in nothing but her skimpy yoga clothes, Upton runs out into an empty lot. She attempts to contact someone, anyone, her phone is broken, she turns to the yoga center, the doors are already locked, the night staff off on their rounds.

- Felipe has always driven his cab well, if nothing in life has gone his way, oh he can drive. Seeing a buxom blonde in skimpy yoga clothes hammering her fists on a locked yoga center, he drives over. It's Kate Upton in distress ! Felipe is gay, but he's smelling some money here.

- Upton gives him a ridiculously distant address. Felipe was born for this moment, haggles with her over price, the panicked Upton hands him a bunch of Benjamins. You can say many things about Felipe, but he is a man of duty. Setting his jaw, Upton in the back seat, he steps on the gas.

- DynaPaul decides he wants a cheeseburger, not any cheeseburger, a 7-11 cheeseburger. Terrible snowstorm outside, he doesn't care, 7-11 is always open, can get a Big Gulp too. Out he goes, determined.

-Besides a bored clerk, 7-11 is empty. But....there's not a damn cheeseburger in the display that keeps them hot. DynaPaul is annoyed. "Cheeseburger maybe ?" The clerk, startled to see anyone out in this, jumps into action. DynaPaul goes and gets his Big Gulp. The cup leaks down his coat. He's even more annoyed now as he gets another cup. The clerk drops his cheeseburger. Even more aggravated, DynaPaul demands another and what the hell is the deal with these cups ?

- The clerk fumbles his change, grabbing at a quarter, DynaPaul knocks over the candy bars, by now he's enraged.

- The noise of display racks and candy bars cascading to the floor masks the sound of Felipe screeching to a halt. Upton, lithe and graceful, dances from the back door, vaguely noting there are no cars, or vehicles in the howling storm, where is everyone ?

- Straightening up, DynaPaul bumps heads with the clerk bending over the counter as the door opens and Upton charges in behind him yelling "I'm here !".

- DynaPaul in the chaos hears "I'm queer !", as Upton's ballet shoes lose traction on the wet floor, she careens wildly, the only thing in front of her to stop a header into the counter is DynaPaul's ass. Nails like hooks in desperation, she seizes his ass with both hands.

- DynaPaul, certain after all this he's being attacked by someone yelling they're queer, balls his fist and swings mightily at the assault, connecting solidly with Upton between her eyes, shattering her nose.

DynaPaul just banged Kate Upton.

[Mace]

You'd think.

Nah. But maybe.