2017 Roster Analysis

[YardRat]

Adding 9 free agents to compete for roster spots and in some cases starting positions...MLB Klein, OLB Hodges, S Hyde, CB Munnerlyn, DT Love, DE Jenkins, OT Watford, OG Warford, WR Norwood. Looking at guys that new coaches are familiar with to varying degrees and in a cap position to have to go relatively cheaply). Would fill out the 90 with youngsters, scrubs from our own lists, other teams scrub FA's that weren't tendered, and UDFA's.

CURRENT ROSTER- (61 players)

QB-Tyrod Taylor,Cardale Jones, Chad Kelly
RB-LeSean McCoy, Jonathon Williams, Mike Gillislee
FB-Jerome Felton
WR-Sammy Watkins, Walter Powell, Marcus Easley, Kolby Listenbee, Dez Lewis, Justin Hunter, Jamari Staples, Jordan Norwood
TE-Charles Clay, Nick O'Leary, Gerald Christian, Blake Annan, Chris Gragg
C-Eric Wood, Ryan Groy, Pat Elflein
G-Ritchie Incognito, John Miller, Patrick Lewis, Larry Warford
OT-Cordy Glenn, Cyrus Kouandijo, Jordan Mills, Michael Ola, Earl Watford
DT-Marcel Dareus, Kyle Williams, Adolphus Washington, Jerel Worthy, Kyle Love
DE-Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Lorenzo Alexander, Jarvis Jenkins
OLB-Preston Brown, Zach Brown, Tashawn Bower, Gerald Hodges
ILB-Reggie Ragland, AJ Klein
CB-Ronald Darby, Kevon Seymour, Nickell Robey-Coleman, Corey White, Des Lawrence, Captain Munnerlin
SS-Corey Graham, Jonathon Meeks, Jamal Adams
FS-Aaron Williams, Mycah Hyde
PK-Dan Carpenter
KOS-No
LS-Garrison Sanborn
P-Colton Schmitt
KRPR-

12 cuts brings the roster down to 49, some (Listenbee, Ola) may stick on practice squad. Kyle gets re-structured to stay around for a season of two.

Need to fill out the four spots with a kicker and another safety, at least. Maybe a return man. A WR. Either another corner or yet another safety. Not thrilled with WR's and TE's, might look for another and put Annan back on PS.

[GingerP]

Those guys are must keeps but they are RFA's

What level do you tender them at, given they want to protect their limited cap space? The original round tender is $1.671M, but since Gillislee was a 5th rounder and Groy an UDFA they would take a risk that someone would grab them (see Hogan, Chris). The 2nd round tender is $2.553M and the 1st round tender is $3.635M.

[YardRat]

In the spirit of collegiality and with full understanding that a front office must work as a team as much as the players have to on the field I'm going to round out my roster by bringing in DraftBoy's guys---Cordarelle Patterson WR/KR...TE Mychal Rivera to replace Annan on the 53...both Wilcox and Jefferson at S (especially if Aaron walks away from the game, and he should)...a free agent kicker. If we can manage to have cap room for another corner, bring in Bouye or Claiborne to replace NRC or White.

[EDS]

In the spirit of collegiality and with full understanding that a front office must work as a team as much as the players have to on the field I'm going to round out my roster by bringing in DraftBoy's guys---Cordarelle Patterson WR/KR...TE Mychal Rivera to replace Annan on the 53...both Wilcox and Jefferson at S (especially if Aaron walks away from the game, and he should)...a free agent kicker. If we can manage to have cap room for another corner, bring in Bouye or Claiborne to replace NRC or White.

I still do not see the cap room for all these moves, particularly since the Bills are a team in transition that should save some powder for the future. Salaries are going up because of the increasing salary cap and there are a ton of teams with money to burn. That means that good but not great players will be making top ten money.

I do still think there will be deals to be had (like Alexander and Brown this year) but the front office will have to be patient and wait out the first few weeks of free agency spending and hope there are players that remain that fit a need.

I would throw some cheddar at Micah Hyde and a right tackle, as others have suggested.

[Mace]

In the spirit of collegiality and with full understanding that a front office must work as a team as much as the players have to on the field I'm going to round out my roster by bringing in DraftBoy's guys---Cordarelle Patterson WR/KR...TE Mychal Rivera to replace Annan on the 53...both Wilcox and Jefferson at S (especially if Aaron walks away from the game, and he should)...a free agent kicker. If we can manage to have cap room for another corner, bring in Bouye or Claiborne to replace NRC or White.

Get rid of journeyman Munnerlyn, the scrub J. Williams at RB and I might even agree with you.

[YardRat]

I still do not see the cap room for all these moves, particularly since the Bills are a team in transition that should save some powder for the future. Salaries are going up because of the increasing salary cap and there are a ton of teams with money to burn. That means that good but not great players will be making top ten money.

I do still think there will be deals to be had (like Alexander and Brown this year) but the front office will have to be patient and wait out the first few weeks of free agency spending and hope there are players that remain that fit a need.

I would throw some cheddar at Micah Hyde and a right tackle, as others have suggested.

In all honesty I probably agree with you, the cap room most likely isn't there especially if Tyrod, Brown and Alexander are brought back. I tried to go low-ball for the most part but will have to do more number-crunching to make it more feasible.

[YardRat]

Get rid of journeyman Munnerlyn, the scrub J. Williams at RB and I might even agree with you.

OK. Who do you want to replace them with?

[Mace]

OK. Who do you want to replace them with?

Well, obviously besides Jordan Gay, I'd look for UDFA's. There are always a lot of backs and spread season CB's coming out of college. That won't work with your more specific model though.

It's not going to be hard to replace J. Williams nonexistent contributions, and while I'd prefer a stud CB in the draft, (higher than Lawrence, have to figure on a Tampa-2 with more priority to the position), looking through the nfl.com draft grades teams are getting starts from UDFA's. You'll probably get better bang for your buck though with a CB rounds in rounds 1-3 this draft (though Cookie won't like it) than nearly any other position besides one of the top safeties, imho.

[YardRat]

Well, obviously besides Jordan Gay, I'd look for UDFA's. There are always a lot of backs and spread season CB's coming out of college. That won't work with your more specific model though.

It's not going to be hard to replace J. Williams nonexistent contributions, and while I'd prefer a stud CB in the draft, (higher than Lawrence, have to figure on a Tampa-2 with more priority to the position), looking through the nfl.com draft grades teams are getting starts from UDFA's. You'll probably get better bang for your buck though with a CB rounds in rounds 1-3 this draft (though Cookie won't like it) than nearly any other position besides one of the top safeties, imho.

Well if you come with anybody, let me know.

[Mace]

I won't, that's why I'd never attempt the detail you offer. I'd draft different, look for UDFA's and avoid temp FA's. I can't say my draft would work with UDFA's who spill over, or predict what FA's might bounce out for cuts and be available. What I want isn't necessarily the way even I think it could happen (like keeping Zach Brown), and grabbing an RT early in the 1st 3 rounds of safety/RT/corner in no order.

I love the read and the effort you guys put into it, but that level of detail is beyond me, even blue skies hopeful. Mostly I know what I don't want.

[EDS]

It's possible, my completely uneducated guesses are as follows:

Bouye - 4 Years, $16 Million ($4.0/Yr)
Clairborne - 3 Years, $17 Million ($5.6/Yr)
Perry - 5 Years, $45 Million ($9.0/Yr)
Jefferson - 5 Years, $30 Million ($6.0/Yr)

So total of $24.6 on just averages which can be weighted and adjusted to balance out cap hits in different years. You have to keep in mind all of these guys are either coming off tenders (Perry and Jefferson) or one year deals (Bouye and Clairborne).

Here is what each made in 2016:
Bouye - $1.67
Clairborne - $3.0
Perry - $5.05
Jefferson - $1.67

The deals I'm offering are substantial improvements for each player and don't break the bank.

Now how do the rest of them fit in? Not sure quite sure, but the Bills have more room to maneuver than just the $36 million without Taylor.

Check out the new deals for Bouye and Perry. Each getting $10+ million per.

[YardRat]

Potential Free Agent targets--defense-

ILB-AJ Klein, Carolina
OLB-Gerald Hodges, San Fran...Sio Moore, Arizona
S-Micah Hyde, Green Bay...Nate Allen, Oakland
CB-Captain Munnerlyn, Minnesota...Logan Ryan, New England
Dline-Bennie Logan, Philadelphia...Kyle Love, Carolina...Jarvis Jenkins, Kansas City...Justin Trattou, Minnesota

Potential free agent targets - offense

OT - Earl Watford, Arizona...Nick Becton, Chicago
OG - Larry Warford, Detroit...Vlad Ducasse, Baltimore
WR - Aldrick Robinson, Atlanta...Jordan Norwood, Denver...Jeremy Ross, Arizona

[Mace]

I'd have been more impressed had you mentioned the fullbacks...but no no no, you wanted you some Felton.

[YardRat]

Actual current roster to date---

QB-Tyrod Taylor,Cardale Jones...Josh Woodrum
RB-LeSean McCoy, Jonathon Williams...Cedric O'Neal, Joe Banyard (Mike Gillislee tendered RFA)
FB-...Patrick DeMarco, Mike Tolbert
WR-Sammy Watkins, Walter Powell, Kolby Listenbee, Dez Lewis...Andre Holmes, Philly Brown, Jeremy Butler, Corey Washington (Easley cut)
TE-Charles Clay, Nick O'Leary, Gerald Christian, Blake Annan
C-Eric Wood...Ryan Groy
G-Ritchie Incognito, John Miller, Patrick Lewis...Vlad Ducasse
OT-Cordy Glenn, Cyrus Kouandijo, Seantrel Henderson, Michael Ola...Jordan Mills
DT-Marcel Dareus, Kyle Williams, Adolphus Washington, Jerel Worthy, Deandre Coleman
DE-Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson...Ryan Davis
OLB-Preston Brown...Lorenzo Alexander
ILB-Reggie Ragland, Ramon Humber, Max Valles
CB-Ronald Darby, Kevon Seymour, Marcus Roberson, Leonard Johnson, Charles Gaines, Jonathon Dowling (Nickell Robey-Coleman cut)
SS-Micah Hyde, Shamiel Gray, Joe Powell (Corey Graham cut)
FS-Jordan Poyer, Colt Anderson (Aaron Williams cut)
PK-Steve Hauschka (Dan Carpenter cut)
KOS-
LS-Reid Ferguson (Garrison Sanborn cut)
P-Colton Schmitt
KRPR-

Up to 60 bodies so far by my count.

[TigerJ]

My two main concerns at this point: I don't see any proven depth at WR and I don't see much speed and athleticism at LB. Yeah, we could upgrade at QB, but that has been the case just this side of forever

[Night Train]

OLB, WR, QB and Secondary.

What I believe they will add to on Draft weekend.

[The Jokeman]

My two main concerns at this point: I don't see any proven depth at WR and I don't see much speed and athleticism at LB. Yeah, we could upgrade at QB, but that has been the case just this side of forever

Depth at TE a bit of a concern too. In a perfect world we'll be able to trade down to acquire a few more picks in the first four rounds.