2017 Roster Analysis

[DraftBoy]

DRAFT PICKS-
1-(10)- WR Mike Williams, Clemson - Assuming we miss out on Pryor, we need a top level WR opposite Watkins.
2-(43)- QB Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech - Lots of upside to Mahomes who has size, speed, and a nice arm. His mechanics are wonky but they work for him.
3-(76)- OC Ethan Pocic, LSU - Ideal interior OL guy who could be an eventual replacement for Wood.
5a-(139)- RB James Conner, Pitt - Great kid, great story and an amazing athlete as well. Likely pushes Williams and Gilly for the #2 RB spot.
5b-(156)- DT Eddie Vanderdoes, UCLA - 5 Star HS Recruit who never put it all together at UCLA. He's an attacking DT who can split the gap and get into the backfield.
6-(172)- OLB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Tennessee - Ideal Cover 2 LB who can do it all, injuries need to be checked though.

Final Roster after FA/Draft, 67 players:
QB-Cardale Jones, Ryan Nassib, Pat Mahomes, Josh Woodrum (4)
RB-LeSean McCoy, Jonathon Williams, Mike Gillislee, James Conner (4)
FB- Zach Line (1)
WR-Sammy Watkins, Walter Powell, Marcus Easley, Kolby Listenbee, Dezmin Lewis, Justin Hunter, Mike Williams, Russell Sheppard, Cordarelle Patterson (9)
TE-Charles Clay, Nick O'Leary, Gerald Christian, Blake Annan, Logan Thomas, Mychal Rivera (6)
C-Eric Wood, Ethan Pocic, JC Tretter (3)
G-Ritchie Incognito, John Miller, Patrick Lewis (3)
OT-Cordy Glenn, Cyrus Kouandijo, Ryan Groy, Michael Ola, Matt McCants (5)
DT-Marcel Dareus, Kyle Williams, Adolphus Washington, Jerel Worthy, Deandre Coleman, Eddie Vanderhoes (6)
DE-Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Jabaal Sheard, Damontre Moore (4)
OLB-Preston Brown, Nick Perry, Jelani Jenkins, Jalen Reeves-Maybin (4)
ILB-Reggie Ragland, Kevin Minter (2)
CB-Ronald Darby, Kevon Seymour, Nickell Robey-Coleman, Marcus Roberson, Corey White, Morris Claiborne, AJ Bouye (7)
SS-Corey Graham, Shamiel Gray, Tony Jefferson (3)
FS-Aaron Williams, JJ Wilcox (2)
PK-Dan Carpenter (1)
LS-Garrison Sanborn (1)
P- Colton Schmitt (1)
KRPR- Brandon Tate (1)

[EDS]

DRAFT PICKS-
1-(10)- WR Mike Williams, Clemson - Assuming we miss out on Pryor, we need a top level WR opposite Watkins.
2-(43)- QB Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech - Lots of upside to Mahomes who has size, speed, and a nice arm. His mechanics are wonky but they work for him.
3-(76)- OC Ethan Pocic, LSU - Ideal interior OL guy who could be an eventual replacement for Wood.
5a-(139)- RB James Conner, Pitt - Great kid, great story and an amazing athlete as well. Likely pushes Williams and Gilly for the #2 RB spot.
5b-(156)- DT Eddie Vanderdoes, UCLA - 5 Star HS Recruit who never put it all together at UCLA. He's an attacking DT who can split the gap and get into the backfield.
6-(172)- OLB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Tennessee - Ideal Cover 2 LB who can do it all, injuries need to be checked though.

Final Roster after FA/Draft, 67 players:
QB-Cardale Jones, Ryan Nassib, Pat Mahomes, Josh Woodrum (4)
RB-LeSean McCoy, Jonathon Williams, Mike Gillislee, James Conner (4)
FB- Zach Line (1)
WR-Sammy Watkins, Walter Powell, Marcus Easley, Kolby Listenbee, Dezmin Lewis, Justin Hunter, Mike Williams, Russell Sheppard, Cordarelle Patterson (9)
TE-Charles Clay, Nick O'Leary, Gerald Christian, Blake Annan, Logan Thomas, Mychal Rivera (6)
C-Eric Wood, Ethan Pocic, JC Tretter (3)
G-Ritchie Incognito, John Miller, Patrick Lewis (3)
OT-Cordy Glenn, Cyrus Kouandijo, Ryan Groy, Michael Ola, Matt McCants (5)
DT-Marcel Dareus, Kyle Williams, Adolphus Washington, Jerel Worthy, Deandre Coleman, Eddie Vanderhoes (6)
DE-Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Jabaal Sheard, Damontre Moore (4)
OLB-Preston Brown, Nick Perry, Jelani Jenkins, Jalen Reeves-Maybin (4)
ILB-Reggie Ragland, Kevin Minter (2)
CB-Ronald Darby, Kevon Seymour, Nickell Robey-Coleman, Marcus Roberson, Corey White, Morris Claiborne, AJ Bouye (7)
SS-Corey Graham, Shamiel Gray, Tony Jefferson (3)
FS-Aaron Williams, JJ Wilcox (2)
PK-Dan Carpenter (1)
LS-Garrison Sanborn (1)
P- Colton Schmitt (1)
KRPR- Brandon Tate (1)

Even if you cut Taylor I don't think the Bills could afford all those free agents. Plus, with that QB depth chart the team would be better off keeping its powder dry.

[DraftBoy]

Even if you cut Taylor I don't think the Bills could afford all those free agents. Plus, with that QB depth chart the team would be better off keeping its powder dry.

Quite possible, it'd going to cost you some money to bring in Rivera, Tretter, McCants, Sheard, Minter, Jefferson, Perry, and Wilcox.

But we have the cap room and the ability to find extra cap room with additional roster moves.

[YardRat]

Seriously when r u guys going to learn?

Neither one of us has blown a first round pick on a bust QB and doubled down two #1's on a complimentary WR, so we've got that going for us.

[YardRat]

Adding 9 free agents to compete for roster spots and in some cases starting positions...MLB Klein, OLB Hodges, S Hyde, CB Munnerlyn, DT Love, DE Jenkins, OT Watford, OG Warford, WR Norwood. Looking at guys that new coaches are familiar with to varying degrees and in a cap position to have to go relatively cheaply). Would fill out the 90 with youngsters, scrubs from our own lists, other teams scrub FA's that weren't tendered, and UDFA's.

CURRENT ROSTER- (61 players)

QB-Tyrod Taylor,Cardale Jones, Chad Kelly
RB-LeSean McCoy, Jonathon Williams, Mike Gillislee
FB-Jerome Felton
WR-Sammy Watkins, Walter Powell, Marcus Easley, Kolby Listenbee, Dez Lewis, Justin Hunter, Jamari Staples, Jordan Norwood
TE-Charles Clay, Nick O'Leary, Gerald Christian, Blake Annan, Chris Gragg
C-Eric Wood, Ryan Groy, Pat Elflein
G-Ritchie Incognito, John Miller, Patrick Lewis, Vlad Ducasse
OT-Cordy Glenn, Cyrus Kouandijo, Jordan Mills, Michael Ola, Earl Watford
DT-Marcel Dareus, Kyle Williams, Adolphus Washington, Jerel Worthy, Kyle Love
DE-Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Lorenzo Alexander, Jarvis Jenkins
OLB-Preston Brown, Zach Brown, Tashawn Bower, Gerald Hodges
ILB-Reggie Ragland, AJ Klein
CB-Ronald Darby, Kevon Seymour, Nickell Robey-Coleman, Corey White, Des Lawrence, Captain Munnerlin
SS-Corey Graham, Jonathon Meeks, Jamal Adams
FS-Aaron Williams, Mycah Hyde
PK-Dan Carpenter
KOS-
LS-Garrison Sanborn
P-Colton Schmitt
KRPR-

[EDS]

Quite possible, it'd going to cost you some money to bring in Rivera, Tretter, McCants, Sheard, Minter, Jefferson, Perry, and Wilcox.

But we have the cap room and the ability to find extra cap room with additional roster moves.

I don't know. Bouye, Claibourne, Perry and Jefferson alone will be close to $30 million annually. Add $5 million for draft picks and the Bills are capped out and have no QB. I would go young and much cheaper until they know they have a QB (assuming the QB depth chart looks something like what you are suggesting).

[YardRat]

I'd love to have Bouye and Clairborne too, but I don't think we can afford it.

[DraftBoy]

I don't know. Bouye, Claibourne, Perry and Jefferson alone will be close to $30 million annually. Add $5 million for draft picks and the Bills are capped out and have no QB. I would go young and much cheaper until they know they have a QB (assuming the QB depth chart looks something like what you are suggesting).

It's possible, my completely uneducated guesses are as follows:

Bouye - 4 Years, $16 Million ($4.0/Yr)
Clairborne - 3 Years, $17 Million ($5.6/Yr)
Perry - 5 Years, $45 Million ($9.0/Yr)
Jefferson - 5 Years, $30 Million ($6.0/Yr)

So total of $24.6 on just averages which can be weighted and adjusted to balance out cap hits in different years. You have to keep in mind all of these guys are either coming off tenders (Perry and Jefferson) or one year deals (Bouye and Clairborne).

Here is what each made in 2016:
Bouye - $1.67
Clairborne - $3.0
Perry - $5.05
Jefferson - $1.67

The deals I'm offering are substantial improvements for each player and don't break the bank.

Now how do the rest of them fit in? Not sure quite sure, but the Bills have more room to maneuver than just the $36 million without Taylor.

[EDS]

It's possible, my completely uneducated guesses are as follows:

Bouye - 4 Years, $16 Million ($4.0/Yr)
Clairborne - 3 Years, $17 Million ($5.6/Yr)
Perry - 5 Years, $45 Million ($9.0/Yr)
Jefferson - 5 Years, $30 Million ($6.0/Yr)

So total of $24.6 on just averages which can be weighted and adjusted to balance out cap hits in different years. You have to keep in mind all of these guys are either coming off tenders (Perry and Jefferson) or one year deals (Bouye and Clairborne).

Here is what each made in 2016:
Bouye - $1.67
Clairborne - $3.0
Perry - $5.05
Jefferson - $1.67

The deals I'm offering are substantial improvements for each player and don't break the bank.

Now how do the rest of them fit in? Not sure quite sure, but the Bills have more room to maneuver than just the $36 million without Taylor.

I think Bouye and Perry are going to be looking to get Janoris Jenkins and Bruce Irvin money respectively, so it would not surprise me if each gets a deal making $9m+ annually. There are just too many teams with massive amounts of cap space.

[DraftBoy]

I think Bouye and Perry are going to be looking to get Janoris Jenkins and Bruce Irvin money respectively, so it would not surprise me if each gets a deal making $9m+ annually. There are just too many teams with massive amounts of cap space.

I could see that with Perry potentially, but somebody would need to pay way above market to give Bouye that money. Bouye was a slot CB for the Texans with Jackson and Joseph outside.

Also that Janoris Jenkins contract is a little nuts, the Giants had to get really creative due to cap numbers. His base salary in 2016 was $1.4 million, but it becomes $12.9 in 2017. His dead cap number also drops from $20.9 million in 17 to only $6.0 million in 2018. Jenkins will likely never see the last three years of his deal.

[YardRat]

I think both Bouye and Clairborne will be looking for $8-10mil per, especially if Gilmore cashes in on something well north of that.

[The Jokeman]

Potential free agent targets - offense

OT - Earl Watford, Arizona...Nick Becton, Chicago
OG - Larry Warford, Detroit...Vlad Ducasse, Baltimore
WR - Aldrick Robinson, Atlanta...Jordan Norwood, Denver...Jeremy Ross, Arizona

Two names that are on my list for offensive UFAs are two Ravens (I don't like Ducasse as he was horrible with the Jets) are WR Kamar Aiken and OT Ricky Wagner. Wagner has been an above average player since being drafted and could be the answer we've been looking for at RT. Aiken has his ups and downs in Baltimore and think he's one of those under the radar type signings that if given more playing time should produce like he did in 2015.

[YardRat]

Two names that are on my list for offensive UFAs are two Ravens (I don't like Ducasse as he was horrible with the Jets) are WR Kamar Aiken and OT Ricky Wagner. Wagner has been an above average player since being drafted and could be the answer we've been looking for at RT. Aiken has his ups and downs in Baltimore and think he's one of those under the radar type signings that if given more playing time should produce like he did in 2015.

Yeah I like those guys also, especially Wagner. Again, I stayed away from them because I think they are going to be too expensive to bring in. Spotrac has his expected market value at just under $7mil/year.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore.../market-value/

[Mace]

Two names that are on my list for offensive UFAs are two Ravens (I don't like Ducasse as he was horrible with the Jets) are WR Kamar Aiken and OT Ricky Wagner. Wagner has been an above average player since being drafted and could be the answer we've been looking for at RT. Aiken has his ups and downs in Baltimore and think he's one of those under the radar type signings that if given more playing time should produce like he did in 2015.

Never understood why we didn't try and hang on to Aiken besides practice squad. Marquise Goodwin (born to linger) and the unused Mike Williams make the roster instead.

[The Jokeman]

Yeah I like those guys also, especially Wagner. Again, I stayed away from them because I think they are going to be too expensive to bring in. Spotrac has his expected market value at just under $7mil/year.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore.../market-value/

Not bringing back Tyrod and Dan Carpenter could free up nearly $16m alone, you can use the $7m on Wagner, you sign a Cutler or Foles to about $3m and sign Aiken for $2m and maybe a guy like Blair Walsh for $1m and you still have $3m to play with the Tyrod/Carpenter and other free money to bring in a starting CB. You then bring in vets like we did this offseason to shore up depth, I'd even see if can bring back Felton, Humbler and Tate. I have looked intensely at the UFA lists for DBs but Roman Harper might prove a valuable depth S as he had some time in Carolina and at the very least could be a veteran backup that could be had on the cheap that use to shore up depth. I'll take some time to do more studying and format an offseason plan in the next few days.

[The Jokeman]

Never understood why we didn't try and hang on to Aiken besides practice squad. Marquise Goodwin (born to linger) and the unused Mike Williams make the roster instead.

Aiken was here during the Stevie Johnson/David Nelson days not the Goodwin days.

[Mace]

Aiken was here during the Stevie Johnson/David Nelson days not the Goodwin days.

Absolutely. Think I'd better take nyquil and go to bed.

[YardRat]

I think Wood, Carpenter and Graham have 'cut targets' on their backs.

[DraftBoy]

I think both Bouye and Clairborne will be looking for $8-10mil per, especially if Gilmore cashes in on something well north of that.

I just can't see that for two guys who are above average. Let's assume that Gilmore gets his $12-$15M per year deal he's looking for. That's going to put him Top 5 in the NFL.

The remaining five are:
6. Trumaine Johnson - 13.952
7. Joe Haden - 13.5
8. Janoris Jenkins - 12.5
9. Darius Slay - 12.0
10. Byron Maxwell - 10.5

I don't put either Clairborne or Bouye into that category, not do I put them into the Carr, Shields, Smith, Alford, Talib, Flowers, Davis Tier 2 category. I think at best each player is looking at a sub $8/year deal probably similar to what DRC got with the Gieants which was five years and $35 million. Even then Bouye could be closer to Jeremy Lane's contract of 4 years and $23 million.

Also let's not forget these two are not the top CB's on the market with Johnson, Carr, Amukamara, Munneryln, and Hayden all also available.

[DraftBoy]

I think Wood, Carpenter and Graham have 'cut targets' on their backs.

Robey-Coleman too.