If Trubisky Is On The Board At 10, Should The Bills Draft Him?

[BillsImpossible]

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/...sky-1/gamelog/

His game against Florida State stands out the most. He lit up a top 10 team for 405 yards, 3 TD's and 0 picks.

He threw for over 400 yards in three consecutive games, Florida State being one of them, all wins.

Great game against Miami.

Horrible game against Virginia Tech.

At the end of the season, Trubisky had a bad game against a very good Stanford team.

I see the potential but I don't see a 1st round draft pick in Trubisky. I wish he would have stayed in college for his senior year.

He's rising up the draft board quicker than any other player in the draft, but I'm not sold.

22 years old, 6'2, 222 lbs. Definitely not a trebuchet.

Trubisky is built like Alex Van Pelt, short and stocky for an NFL QB.

The kid's a project.

The Bills already have a project QB that is 6'5, 250 lbs and beat Alabama in the National Championship Game.

I don't want to see two projects battle it out for the backup quarterback position with the 10th pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.

[endzone]

YES! Get a very good player at the QB position in the wings. NOW! We don't need a #1 receiver if our QB can't get him the ball.

[Night Train]

13 starts.

Sanchez taught us nothing.

[TacklingDummy]

patriots since 1993 have drafted a QB on average every other year, the Bills have drafted 5 total. Let's do it the Pats way.

[Jry44]

No.

I will say though that I don't think all of this time vested in scouting and working out Qb's was all smoke and mirrors. They have invested too many resources in scouting these guys to be just sending out mixed signals. I think they take the highest player on their board at 10, and then try to move back in to the 1st to grab one of these guys in the bottom quarter of the 1st round. Can't say that I agree with it, but I feel like that's their thinking.

[BillsImpossible]

patriots since 1993 have drafted a QB on average every other year, the Bills have drafted 5 total. Let's do it the Pats way.

I agree, draft a QB, but not in the 1st round.

Take a swing on a QB in the 3rd or 4th round? I don't see it.

Dallas took a swing on Dak Prescott in the 4th round last year (just before the Bills drafted Cardale Jones) and hit a home run.

That doesn't happen very often in the NFL. Once or twice every 10 years at most.

I'm cool with Cardale waiting in the wings and don't see any reason why the Bills should draft a QB in 2017.

It's 2013 all over again with this draft class of QB's.

There's a very good reason why there is no consensus about who is the best QB in the 2017 NFL Draft.

Compared to Tyrod Taylor and Cardale Jones, Mitchell Trubisky is not the kind of QB I want the Bills to be developing.

[kgun12]

patriots since 1993 have drafted a QB on average every other year, the Bills have drafted 5 total. Let's do it the Pats way.

However they don't use a 1st round pick on them.

[TacklingDummy]

Draft a QB next year, hopefully we are drafting top 3.

[stuckincincy]

Cardale news..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...es-graduating/

[BillsImpossible]

[YardRat]

No to Trubisky...anywhere in the first round, maybe even second.

Good on Cardale

[Fixxxer]

Yes

[Ingtar33]

I said after the college football season (and before the bowl games) that the only QB in this draft worth a first rounder was Trubisky. And he's not worth a great first rounder either (his arm strength is so-so).

If there is no CB, OT, LB availible the bills want in the first and Trubisky is on the board I wouldn't throw a fit if they drafted him. But he won't be on the board so this is a silly discussion.

Now a better discussion would be Pat Mahomes - Who was the only QB I reviewed after the college football season was over who made me excited. He seemed to have the "it" factor that all elite QBs have. I graded him out as an early 2nd rounder and said at the time if he was on the board late in the first I couldn't argue with that pick. The problem you have with Mahomes is his complete mess of a mechanics, but the ball goes where he wants it to most of the time so it's hard to argue with the results. I think it would be HARD to justify Mahomes at our pick in round one. But again, I wouldn't be particularly upset if he was drafted with our first rounder either. The only possible first round QBs who'd I'd be ticked off if the bills drafted at 10 would be Watson or Kizer, as I really dislike both of them and wouldn't even be happy with them at our pick in the 2nd round.

[sudzy]

No. This draft class seems to be only slightly better then EJ's class. They can't miss afford to miss on another QB. Next year is the year to draft a QB and with this schedule the Bills are looking at a top 5 pick.

[cookie G]

Now a better discussion would be Pat Mahomes - Who was the only QB I reviewed after the college football season was over who made me excited. He seemed to have the "it" factor that all elite QBs have. I graded him out as an early 2nd rounder and said at the time if he was on the board late in the first I couldn't argue with that pick. The problem you have with Mahomes is his complete mess of a mechanics, but the ball goes where he wants it to most of the time so it's hard to argue with the results. I think it would be HARD to justify Mahomes at our pick in round one. But again, I wouldn't be particularly upset if he was drafted with our first rounder either. The only possible first round QBs who'd I'd be ticked off if the bills drafted at 10 would be Watson or Kizer, as I really dislike both of them and wouldn't even be happy with them at our pick in the 2nd round.

I wouldn't complain about taking him in the 1st. If nothing else, we're doing something different.


The "He's not Ready" Factor

I don't care if he's not ready yet..I can wait a year or two.

We spend enough time using a high pick on someone who's supposed to be a day 1 contributor/impact player, and then they often aren't.

The following high picks were supposed to be day 1, solid contributors from the get go.

Shaq Lawson- 2 sacks and a whopping 7 tackles. Next to nothing in terms of contribution.
Darby- the pass defense was better, by a bunch, before he got here. Not really blaming him personally for the falloff, but his contribution didn't do much for the pass D.
EJ Manuel- well, enough said
Stephon Gilmore- the D went from 30th to 26th...See the Darby comment for clarification. he wasn't bad but he didn't transform the defense.
CJ Spiller- about 500 from scrimmage his rookie year.
Aaron Williams - (top pick of the 2nd round) he was terrible as a CB for 2 years before being moved to safety. For 2 years, he was more of a liability than a contributor.
Aaron Maybin - lol
Leotis - played nothing more than nickel for his first couple of years. when he played outside, he was terrible.

That's more than half of our top picks in the past decade. If we can wait for a DB or a DE to develop...we can wait for a QB to develop at the most important position on the team.

The Improvement Factor

There's lots he needs to improve, staying in the pocket, footwork, decision making, but in each of those cases, it isn't a lost cause. It is more ...refinement than starting from scratch.

In terms of footwork, yeah, it needs fixing..but as you said, the ball generally gets there, even throwing off balance.
When he was on Gruden, and he was asked about Klingbury getting on him about his footwork. He said Klingbury did..but then kind of said, "but you're completing passes".

In terms of decision making...oh yeah, he made some bad INT's. But overall, he threw 10 in nearly 600 passes. Sometimes I think people concentrate a little too much on the mistakes.

In terms of leaving the pocket too early, he can do that at times too. But more often, he's leaving the pocket early because someone's coming after him. Put on the videos of him against LSU in 2015, or Kansas St. and Oklahoma ..they wre bringing it nearly every play.

The Good

In terms of arm strength, it isn't the ability to fire the ball 80 yards that matters. Its that he can get the 20 yard out throw to the area twice as fast as most. Or his ability to throw on the run with velocity AND accuracy.

I think there's one ability he has that is underrated, and from what I see, he's got other QB's beat by a long shot.

That's his ability to throw under pressure. That's especially important given the pass protection on the right side of the Bills Oline. Yeah, he can leave the pocket early at times, but much of the time...he's forced to. And he can make good things happen.

Against LSU and Oklahoma he was leaving the pocket, but staying behind the LOS and scanning the field. And when he was throwing on the run, he was hitting guys in stride. And more importantly..he was finding the guy that broke loose from his route and who found a soft spot in coverage.

THAT...reminds me of Jim Kelly. And I always considered that the best part of Kelly's game. With Kelly, you could almost see his mind working when he was holding on to the ball. It wasn't JUST a matter of scanning the whole field. You could almost see him breaking the field down into 5 or 6 sections. And he knew that if they had multiple defenders in one section, another one would be open. I see that in Mahomes when he leaves the pocket.

Against Kansas St. in the first half, he stayed in the pocket more..took some hits. But he also threw for 2 TD and ran for 3 in the first half. K-State was blitzing 3 LB's at a time, he was finding the open guy. The ball was coming out of his hand quickly, and accurately. It kind of fell apart in the 2nd half when they started nailing him every play.

To be honest...the more I watched him..the more I saw of Jim Kelly in him than I've seen in most other Qb's (except for throwing motion). With a little work, it wouldn't be bad to get another one, even if you have to wait a year or 2.

Its worth the risk to me. Its not like we're nailing all of these "safe picks"

[Ingtar33]

pretty accurate evaluation of Mahomes cookie g.

What made me stand up and notice him was how he found WRs running along the back of the endzone in the middle of the field. He did it consistently, and often. It's hard to see, hard to master, takes insane accuracy and frankly, it's a big boy NFL quality throw. And he did it over and over again. From that point I stopped wincing at his mechanics and started paying attention to ball placement, timing, and vision and got more and more impressed. The kid was GREAT at throwing his WRs open. Even better at hitting them in stride in a way that allowed them to gain huge YAC, moved well in the pocket, felt the passrush well, threw well on the run. I mean the positives just kept piling up the more I watched.

After looking at all the positives his mechanical problems got more and more insignificant. He really did remind me of Brett Favre cerca 1994. Granted his arm wasn't in Favre's class, but then few nfl QB arms are, but he was accurate and could make all the pro throws, made something out of nothing, looked off safeties, could throw on time, could improvise. If it wasn't for the fact he'd do something crazy ever so often or that his mechanics were so terrible (occasionally harming the accuracy of his passes) I'd have evaluated him as a round 1 QB without any hesitation. My biggest concern with him is he'll probably toss up 20 INTs if he starts his rookie year. And it's probably a coin flip's chance on whether or not he'll be able to correct those mistakes and become an all pro or a draft bust.

[swiper]

However they don't use a 1st round pick on them.

Tony Eason?

Never say never.

[jamze132]

Trubisky will be a bust. No QB in first. Go after Mahomes, Peterman, or Kaya and let them sit behind Tyrod.

[cookie G]

pretty accurate evaluation of Mahomes cookie g.

What made me stand up and notice him was how he found WRs running along the back of the endzone in the middle of the field. He did it consistently, and often. It's hard to see, hard to master, takes insane accuracy and frankly, it's a big boy NFL quality throw. And he did it over and over again. From that point I stopped wincing at his mechanics and started paying attention to ball placement, timing, and vision and got more and more impressed. The kid was GREAT at throwing his WRs open. Even better at hitting them in stride in a way that allowed them to gain huge YAC, moved well in the pocket, felt the passrush well, threw well on the run. I mean the positives just kept piling up the more I watched.

After looking at all the positives his mechanical problems got more and more insignificant. He really did remind me of Brett Favre cerca 1994. Granted his arm wasn't in Favre's class, but then few nfl QB arms are, but he was accurate and could make all the pro throws, made something out of nothing, looked off safeties, could throw on time, could improvise. If it wasn't for the fact he'd do something crazy ever so often or that his mechanics were so terrible (occasionally harming the accuracy of his passes) I'd have evaluated him as a round 1 QB without any hesitation. My biggest concern with him is he'll probably toss up 20 INTs if he starts his rookie year. And it's probably a coin flip's chance on whether or not he'll be able to correct those mistakes and become an all pro or a draft bust.

I agree with the coin flip chance..but sometimes its worth flipping a coin. If we were hitting on our 1st round picks every year and were in the playoffs annually, I'd feel different..but we're doing neither.

The worst game I probably saw from him was West Virginia. WV changed their defense on nearly every play, and went from rushing 3 to rushing 6 or 7..constantly. They had him, and Klingbury confused. Could be a red flag on reading defenses, it also could just be a learning experience.

[TigerJ]

I am not against drafting Trubisky depending on how the first nine picks of the draft play out. I'm not advocating for the Bills to draft him.