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Thread: 2020 Election Will Be Waged Against the Background of a Weak Economy

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    2020 Election Will Be Waged Against the Background of a Weak Economy

    2020 Election Will Be Waged Against the Background of a Weak Economy

    Professor Krugman presents the data...
    Predictions are hard, especially about the future. But a lot of indicators are pointing to an economic slowdown not a recession, but doldrums over the near future. GDP "nowcast" are definitely meh 1/

    Manufacturing in battleground states appears to be sputtering 2/










    And the overall outlook for these states looks relatively grim 3/







    Can the Fed turn this around? What matters for the economy are mainly long-term rates, and these have already priced in a huge amount of easing they're more or less back to where they were before the 2016 election, and way off the post-tax-cut bump 4/






    Lots could change, and all these forward indicators could be wrong. But right now it looks as if the general election will be waged against the background of a weak economy, with Trump's claims of having turned everything around sounding like a sick joke. Just saying 5/
    Job creation growth has been falling during all of Trump's term as compared to the previous number of months of the Obama presidency. GDP growth was only marginally higher in 2018 than previous years....and almost all projections of future GDP growth are pretty dismal.

    To all those that have said that Trump will win election because of the economy....think again. Historically unusual 10th year of expansion screams for a slowdown. Trump's own actions...stupid counterproductive tariffs....will come back to bit him in the ass, along with 99% of the population....especially the farmers that believed his bull****.

    Taken along with his historically bad approval and historically HIGH disapproval, with up to 57% of voters saying they would "NEVER" vote for Trump....and Mueller about to gain tons of attention and provide context for what his report REALLY said not the lies from AG Barr, Trump and his propaganda arm, Fox Fake News)...this jerk is in trouble.

    I suspect by later this year, there will be serious talk that Trump may drop out of the 2020 race altogether to prevent an embarxseing HUGE loss.

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    Well, lookie here... YardRat's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Election Will Be Waged Against the Background of a Weak Economy

    There is going to be a slow-down, it's inevitable. It's just a matter of when. However, it's going to have to have a real effect on everyday Joe and Jane, and not just be a media narrative, if it's actually going to have any influence in the booths.
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    Acid Douching Asswipe OpIv37's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Election Will Be Waged Against the Background of a Weak Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by YardRat View Post
    There is going to be a slow-down, it's inevitable. It's just a matter of when. However, it's going to have to have a real effect on everyday Joe and Jane, and not just be a media narrative, if it's actually going to have any influence in the booths.
    Oh but it is. One obvious example: everyday soy farmers in battleground states like Michigan are losing their shirts cuz of the orange idiot's tariffs. They vote for him last time, they won't vote for him next time.

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    Generalissimus Gibby (06-27-2019),notacon (06-27-2019)

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    Re: 2020 Election Will Be Waged Against the Background of a Weak Economy

    Yeah let’s boost the economy with 28 % corporate taxes, let’s install solar panels in an area the size of Massachusetts and wind farms in an area the size of Tennessee and Virginia and force industry and transport to stop using oil and gas, let’s give away free college (tax) eliminate debt (tax) , Medicare for all (tax) free childcare (tax) end subsidies for big oil (indirect tax at the pump).

    the dems will need to sell the above hard. Far to much to leave any time for trying to convince the public that the economy sucks.

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    Re: 2020 Election Will Be Waged Against the Background of a Weak Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by OpIv37 View Post
    Oh but it is. One obvious example: everyday soy farmers in battleground states like Michigan are losing their shirts cuz of the orange idiot's tariffs. They vote for him last time, they won't vote for him next time.
    True, but that doesn't outweigh the number of people who consider themselves to better off in the current economy which the larger point.
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    RABBI Haile SpikedLemonade's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Election Will Be Waged Against the Background of a Weak Economy

    I have no skin in the game, but I would sacrifice having a shallow US recession for 18 months if that means Trump is not re-elected.

    I still don't think there is anyway Trump is not re-elected.

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    Re: 2020 Election Will Be Waged Against the Background of a Weak Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Haile SpikedLemonade View Post
    I have no skin in the game, but I would sacrifice having a shallow US recession for 18 months if that means Trump is not re-elected.

    I still don't think there is anyway Trump is not re-elected.
    Yeah, no.

    Even a shallow US recession will put thousands out of work and further hurt persons already struggling in a positive economy who are impoverished or low-income. You never hope for or accept a recession.

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    Re: 2020 Election Will Be Waged Against the Background of a Weak Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by DraftBoy View Post
    Yeah, no.

    Even a shallow US recession will put thousands out of work and further hurt persons already struggling in a positive economy who are impoverished or low-income. You never hope for or accept a recession.
    There is going to be pain either way and the only issue is who is going to feel it the most.

    For example, 4 more years of Trump attacking abortion rights is going to create a lot of future pain for future poor single mothers.

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    Re: 2020 Election Will Be Waged Against the Background of a Weak Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Haile SpikedLemonade View Post
    There is going to be pain either way and the only issue is who is going to feel it the most.

    For example, 4 more years of Trump attacking abortion rights is going to create a lot of future pain for future poor single mothers.
    I'm not risking the economic likelihood of thousands of families just to beat Trump, whose impact has been far less than many feared. Will people suffer if Trump wins re-election yes, but the republic will hold. The economic fallout of a recession, even a mild one, will hurt far too many people to think its an acceptable thing to happen.

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    Re: 2020 Election Will Be Waged Against the Background of a Weak Economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Haile SpikedLemonade View Post
    I have no skin in the game, but I would sacrifice having a shallow US recession for 18 months if that means Trump is not re-elected.

    I still don't think there is anyway Trump is not re-elected.
    I never wish for a recession. It affects the least able to ride out the storm the most.

    Trump LIED about the state of the economy during the election...Trump LIED about the "best economy in our history" the past two years...Trump WILL LIE about the state of the economy next year....Trump WILL LIE about the FACTS that the economy is experiencing a slow down if it does.

    There seems to be a pattern here.

    It does not matter if we want a slow down or a recession or not. It's going to happen because of many reasons....first, the business cycle is inevitable and very little can be done to stop it. 10+ years of expansion is begging for a slow down.

    More importantly, EVERY action Trump has taken concerning the economy has been the WRONG thing to do.

    1. You do not stimulate the economy with top heavy tax cuts during an expansion.

    2. You NEVER personally berate individual companies because they don't kneel at the Alter of Trump.

    3. You do not institute stupid and counterproductive tariffs that AMERICAN pay and then LIE and say that China pays them.

    4. You do not antagonize and denigrate our closest allies.

    Any slow down that may, or may not come is made worse by Trump's own actions. It takes time between policy changes and effects in an economy as large as the US. Of course, the Idiot-in-chief does not understand this because the idea of a strategy is foreign to him.
    What should have been a strength will most likely turn into a negative for Trump BECAUSE of his own incompetence, dishonesty and hubris.

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    Generalissimus Gibby (06-29-2019)

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