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Thread: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

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    RABBI Haile SpikedLemonade's Avatar
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    ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%


    Buffalo Bills


    FPI chance to make the playoffs: 13.8%

    Significant signs of growth from Josh Allen. This one's simple, right? The Bills finished second in the league last season in defensive DVOA. Combine that with a competent offense and they're probably a playoff team. They instead finished 31st in offensive DVOA and pass offense DVOA. Allen finished his rookie season with a 71 passer rating index, the third-worst mark for a first-round pick with 300 or more pass attempts in his rookie season since the merger. Allen was excellent as a scrambler, but he was far worse as a passer than predecessor Tyrod Taylor.

    The natural argument from Bills fans was that Allen didn't have any talent around him. I agree that Allen had a subpar supporting cast and offensive line, but it's not as if his season was totally tanked by the other 10 guys on offense. Allen's receivers dropped 4.1% of his passes, which was above the league average of 3.5%, but Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck all had a higher percentage of their passes dropped, and they still managed to piece together pretty good numbers....

    The good news, of course, is that Allen still has plenty of time to develop. He should work with a much more talented offensive core this season after the Bills acquired four new starting offensive linemen and the likes of John Brown, Cole Beasley, Tyler Kroft and Frank Gore in free agency, although Kroft is recovering from a broken foot and expensive new center Mitch Morse suffered what was at least his fourth documented concussion. There are no obvious superstars in the bunch, but general manager Brandon Beane replaced several replacement-level starters with players who are likely to contribute at or around the league average.

    I wonder if the best sign of progress for Allen might be seeing his rushing numbers take a dramatic decline. The Bills ran a few designed runs for Allen in 2018, but it's not as if he was the focal point of a rushing attack a la Lamar Jackson. Allen was running because he wasn't comfortable in the pocket and saw openings. It's difficult to see him keeping up his prior level of success on scrambles over the long term, so if Buffalo can use its new weapons to keep Allen making plays in and around the pocket, it'll be to his benefit in the long run.

    I don't think there's a specific number we can throw out there as a lone measure of Allen's growth, in part because his usage rate was so unique. If he continues to throw one of every five passes as a bomb and scrambles effectively, Allen can be productive and valuable with a sub-60% completion rate. If the Bills ask Allen to make intermediate throws more frequently and ask him to work through his progressions at the expense of scrambles, though, Allen could top 60% and still be well below league-average as a quarterback in a league in which passers completed 65.5% of their passes a year ago.

    A step forward from Dion Dawkins. One of the players who was expected to serve as a valuable building block for the Bills' offense after that unexpected playoff run in 2017 was Dawkins, who stepped in as a rookie in 2017 and played effectively at left tackle in Cordy Glenn's absence. The Bills were enthused enough to ship Glenn off to Cincinnati last season and turn Allen's blind side over to Dawkins in the hopes that they had found their new left tackle of the future.

    Dawkins struggled badly, committing 15 penalties, which was second in the league behind Morgan Moses. Those numbers included five holding calls and three unnecessary roughness penalties. The former second-round pick also allowed eight sacks, per Stats LLC. The Bills responded by signing veteran Ty Nsekhe from Washington, who filled in as a left tackle for Trent Williams, though it's clear that their long-term goal is still to keep Dawkins on the left side.

    There are worse things to have around than a useful guard or tackle, and if Dawkins continues to struggle on the left side in 2019, it wouldn't be shocking if Buffalo moved him down the offensive line spectrum and went after a new left tackle. Dawkins' numbers also suffered by virtue of playing in front of Allen, who wasn't an easy quarterback in terms of pass protection. If Dawkins does show more of the form we saw in 2017, though, the Bills will have an answer at one of the league's most important -- and expensive -- positions.


    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...10-worst-teams
    Last edited by Haile SpikedLemonade; 08-22-2019 at 01:59 PM.

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    RABBI Haile SpikedLemonade's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    I have more faith in Allen than the writer does but I have to admit I am not big fan of Dawkins.

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    Skoobasaurus-Rex Skooby's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    We haven’t had a good offense for several years now, we booked some talent to see what Josh we now.

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    Registered User Bill Cody's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    ESPN.....so so negative. I think our chances are at least 14%

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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    The odds any team will make it, all things neutral, is 37.5%. If there are very strong odds the division winner is another team, then your odds of being a wildcard, all things neutral is 16.67%. The neutral odds to win a division is 25%.

    If you give the Bills 10% chance to win AFCE that’s .1 x 25% = 2.5%
    This you’re saying the Bills have 90% chance to compete for wildcard = .9 x 16.67% = 15%
    Total odds if making the playoffs against a likely division winner is 17.5%, based on random causes.

    Since I think the Pats are still a major factor, this isn’t that bad. You would have to rank the likely pool of wildcard contenders and distribute probabilities based on what you know or you have merit to predict.

    If the Colts and the Patriots swapped divisions, our odds improve immensely. I say 30%.

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    Making Spirits Bright Joe Fo Sho's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Cody View Post
    ESPN.....so so negative. I think our chances are at least 14%
    What a homer.

    I'll split the difference, 13.9%.

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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    Sounds close to what I've posted before for rough probabilities of the Bills end of season record. In this case, some portion of the last category would mean a playoff spot:

    A Significant "Losing Season" [ 6-10 or worse ].... 25% Chance

    Another Mediocre Season [ 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 ].......... 50% Chance

    A Significant "Winning Season" [ 10-6 or better].. 25% Chance


    GO BILLS!

    :)

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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    Not only do you have the patriots problem. If you have a conference with one division with two top tier teams, the odds the first wildcard goes up and the odds the second wildcard go down. I’m not sure we have that, but it does happen. These really aren’t damning at all. I think it says it’s in play.

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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Fo Sho View Post
    What a homer.

    I'll split the difference, 13.9%.
    hater

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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    On a more positive note, Vegas has us at a 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl. )))

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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaziganth View Post
    On a more positive note, Vegas has us at a 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl. )))
    So is it 99 to 1 odds then ??

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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    Quote Originally Posted by MitchMurrayDowntown View Post
    So is it 99 to 1 odds then ??
    Err, odds are "100/1"; does that still round to 1% though? =p

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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Cody View Post
    ESPN.....so so negative. I think our chances are at least 14%
    78.4% of statistics are made up on the spot.

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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    Over/Under my beer consumption the next 3 hours at 8.

    Advise all to take the over.
    "When I'm with you girl I get an extension.. and I don't mean Alexander Graham Bell's invention."


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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    "Miami played pretty damn good today and still got their ass kicked."

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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    That's 13.8% better than what I thought.

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    Re: ESPN Puts the Bills Chances at Making the Playoffs at 13.8%

    Quote Originally Posted by Haile SpikedLemonade View Post
    I have more faith in Allen than the writer does but I have to admit I am not big fan of Dawkins.
    Thing is though, they subtracted Incognito from his side and replaced him with Ducasse who never played LG, so Dawkins was pretty much the whole left side of the line.
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