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Thread: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

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    Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    For fun, what's the path to 10-6 ?

    << My "percentage" WIN predictions from an older thread, updated with my current thoughts...

    Here's my take on the remaining games:
    =============================================

    @ Cleveland - I see this game as "even" ( roughly 50/50 chance ) -- RESULT ( LOSS )
    @ Miami - I see this game as "even" ( roughly 50/50 chance ) -- RESULT ( WIN! )


    /////////


    Denver - 65% chance Bills WIN -- I'll lower this to a 55% chance Bills WIN because Brandon Allen seems pretty decent the last couple games, but J. Allen did well too.

    @ Dallas - 30% chance Bills WIN -- I'll lower this to a 25% chance Bills WIN because short week for both teams but Bills have to travel to Dallas on a short week.
    Baltimore - 25% chance Bills WIN -- I'll lower this to a 10% chance Bills WIN because, well... the Ravens are looking pretty nasty.
    @ Pittsburgh - 25% chance Bills WIN -- I'll up this to "even" ( roughly 50/50 chance ) as the Bills looked good against Miami.
    @ New England - 10% chance Bills WIN -- same percentage.

    New York Jets - 65% chance Bills WIN -- I'll lower this to "even" ( roughly 50/50 chance ) as Jets look pretty decent last few games with Sammy back as QB.


    **Disclaimer: that's with everything (QB's, key players, etc.) as it stands today.

    ///

    With all of that in mind, I see an 8-8 or 9-7 finish unless the Bills get "lucky" and win all three of the roughly "50% to 55% chance win games" (Broncos, Pitt, and Jets).

    GO BILLS! Defy the odds!

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    I think the Steelers suck & we have to beat the Ravens, so itís one of those.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    NJB and Denver should be wins.

    Pitt is a toss up. Normally I would call a game in Pitt an automatic loss, but they're so banged up right now. The Bills can win this game although I'm not sure that they will.

    I don't see this team beating NE, Baltimore or Dallas. Of those 3, Dallas has been inconsistent and that's probably our best chance for a W but I don't see them rolling over on T day in their house.

    It's going to come down to the Pitt and Dallas games.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    The good news is that looking at the standings, 9-7 could be good enough for a WC in the AFC this year.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    This week is the biggest must win of the season, IMO. If they don't beat Denver, they are staring at a huge hill to climb to get to 9, even 10 wins.

    They need to play with the urgency and passion that they did yesterday.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Forward_Lateral View Post
    This week is the biggest must win of the season, IMO. If they don't beat Denver, they are staring at a huge hill to climb to get to 9, even 10 wins.

    They need to play with the urgency and passion that they did yesterday.
    I agree, and Denver is going to fight them tooth and nail. If the Bills "relax" because it's a home game, there's a good chance they'll lose.
    Last edited by Kaziganth; 11-18-2019 at 01:04 PM.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by OpIv37 View Post
    NJB and Denver should be wins.

    Pitt is a toss up. Normally I would call a game in Pitt an automatic loss, but they're so banged up right now. The Bills can win this game although I'm not sure that they will.

    I don't see this team beating NE, Baltimore or Dallas. Of those 3, Dallas has been inconsistent and that's probably our best chance for a W but I don't see them rolling over on T day in their house.

    It's going to come down to the Pitt and Dallas games.
    I'd honestly say NE is the best shot at a win. Dallas on a short week isn't a great option.

    Dak has been balling and Zeke will be looking to eat on Thanksgiving.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Beef View Post
    I'd honestly say NE is the best shot at a win. Dallas on a short week isn't a great option.

    Dak has been balling and Zeke will be looking to eat on Thanksgiving.
    NE's offense isn't the juggernaut that they usually are- our D has proven they can hold them in check.

    I just don't trust Daboll and Allen to figure out Belicheck's D.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by OpIv37 View Post
    NE's offense isn't the juggernaut that they usually are- our D has proven they can hold them in check.

    I just don't trust Daboll and Allen to figure out Belicheck's D.
    Also, NE is traditionally pretty unbeatable at home. I'm not saying it can't be done, and the Ravens showed that their type of offense can do well against NE, so it's possible but I'd still say it's a low chance for a Bills win; 10% chance or so we win vs. the Pats this year in NE?

    That being said, if the Bills start clicking every game like they just did in Miami, then my win percentage for the Bills will go up. ))

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    I think it's clear that Broncos + Jets are games we need to win.

    I agree with skooby, i think the steelers are a bit overrated. While what they have done has been a great accomplishment without Ben, I think we saw them exposed against the Browns.

    I wish it was in Buffalo, but I still think we can win this game. I'm glad you moved them up to 50%... because if you truly feel like we have a 25% chance against a team with a back up qb... we don't deserve to make the playoffs.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Baltimore is going to be "that" game the team wins and nobody expects it.
    Two weeks later, they will beat the Pats.
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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Broncos and Jets are must wins that based on the way this season has gone and the way the team plays will be wins.

    So then they have to steal a game between the Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers and Pats.

    Steelers is probably the easiest matchup to steal that game.

    Lose to the Jets or Broncos and the path to 10-6 is non-existent IMO

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Not to mention the fact that if we beat the Broncos, a Bills team with an 8-3 record will blow my mind. I think I would be in a daze, and feel like I'm dreaming. =p


    GO BILLS!!! LET'S-GO BUFFALO!

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Dallas doesn't scare me. Detroit put up 27 on them with a homeless guy playing QB.

    The Bills can win that game, but they are going to have to score more than 19 points.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Forward_Lateral View Post
    Dallas doesn't scare me. Detroit put up 27 on them with a homeless guy playing QB.

    The Bills can win that game, but they are going to have to score more than 19 points.
    Fair enough. For me, the big question with that game is how will the Bills perform offensively on a short week traveling all the way to Dallas?

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaziganth View Post
    Fair enough. For me, the big question with that game is how will the Bills perform offensively on a short week traveling all the way to Dallas?
    Hard to say. They are young, so stamina shouldn't be an issue. I guess it depends on what happens Sunday. Will they be coming off of a huge victory, or a devastating loss?

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    I see this becoming a 9-7 season.

    Wins against the Broncos and Jets.

    Losses against the Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers and Patriots.

    The Steelers game would be a win if it was in Buffalo but I see a close loss in Pittsburg.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    I think we're all in agreement that any realistic path to 10-6 has to include wins against the Broncos and Jets, making this weekend pretty critical.

    I think the Steelers game is fairly winnable. Our pass D should be able to give Rudolph plenty of problems.

    I'm also not that impressed with Dallas. Everyone gives the Bills a hard time for only beating bad teams, but the Cowboys are in the same boat. A part from beating the Eagles that were banged up and struggling at the time, they've only beaten the Giants twice, Redskins, Dolphins and Lions without Stafford.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Haile SpikedLemonade View Post
    I see this becoming a 9-7 season.

    Wins against the Broncos and Jets.

    Losses against the Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers and Patriots.

    The Steelers game would be a win if it was in Buffalo but I see a close loss in Pittsburg.
    with Maya Rudolph at QB?

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Jets have been playing better.
    Draft a franchise QB that X-Era would be proud to put in his user name for the next 13 years.

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