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Thread: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    That’s funny the Pats missing the playoffs with the Defense they have.
    Draft a franchise QB that X-Era would be proud to put in his user name for the next 13 years.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    I think Brady is going to play in Indy next year and win his final superbowl without Bellicheat before retiring.

    Them missing the playoffs at 11 wins with (as you point out) one of the better defenses of the last 20 years would be absolutely hilarious.
    All Hail Josh Allen! Savior of the Buffalo Bills!


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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Did we play the last 6 games already ....... so far 7-3.

    It's still just one game per week so .......... 1-0 is still the goal each week I believe.

    Just because you can look at a schedule doesn't mean anything about who will be available to play in said game.

    Injuries happen every week and even during the week unfortunately ....... so predicting is pointless.

    We can win any game we play in period.

    In the words of the famous boxer, Jack Jenkins, “don’t take this ass whipping personally”
    GO BUFFALO!!

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaziganth View Post
    For fun, what's the path to 10-6 ?

    << My "percentage" WIN predictions from an older thread, updated with my current thoughts...

    Here's my take on the remaining games:
    =============================================

    @ Cleveland - I see this game as "even" ( roughly 50/50 chance ) -- RESULT ( LOSS )
    @ Miami - I see this game as "even" ( roughly 50/50 chance ) -- RESULT ( WIN! )


    /////////


    Denver - 65% chance Bills WIN -- I'll lower this to a 55% chance Bills WIN because Brandon Allen seems pretty decent the last couple games, but J. Allen did well too.

    @ Dallas - 30% chance Bills WIN -- I'll lower this to a 25% chance Bills WIN because short week for both teams but Bills have to travel to Dallas on a short week.
    Baltimore - 25% chance Bills WIN -- I'll lower this to a 10% chance Bills WIN because, well... the Ravens are looking pretty nasty.
    @ Pittsburgh - 25% chance Bills WIN -- I'll up this to "even" ( roughly 50/50 chance ) as the Bills looked good against Miami.
    @ New England - 10% chance Bills WIN -- same percentage.

    New York Jets - 65% chance Bills WIN -- I'll lower this to "even" ( roughly 50/50 chance ) as Jets look pretty decent last few games with Sammy back as QB.


    **Disclaimer: that's with everything (QB's, key players, etc.) as it stands today.

    ///

    With all of that in mind, I see an 8-8 or 9-7 finish unless the Bills get "lucky" and win all three of the roughly "50% to 55% chance win games" (Broncos, Pitt, and Jets).

    GO BILLS! Defy the odds!

    This is the Bills we are talking about so I think we will go 10-6. That is to say we will win a game we have no business winning (I am thinking Dallas, don't ask why, I just see them beating Dallas), and losing a game to a team they have no business losing to. I think we could flub Denver, beat Dallas, and then beat the Jets and get in at 10-6. For a team that is still a year away from the competition window that is a pretty damn good step in the right direction. We beat Denver and Dallas then yeah, its time to start booking hotels because the playoffs are gonna happen.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimmifli View Post
    I like this timeline:


    [...]


    7.NE 11-5 [narrowly misses the playoffs]

    That would be a wet dream! But unless Brady __AND__ Belichick both end up in a coma or something for the rest of the season I think there's like zero chance the Pats lose 4 out of their last 6 games. And three of those losses would need to be home games for NE. It's slightly more realistic if Brady wasn't able to play I guess, but Belichick would still probably find a way to win at least 3 games even w/o Brady. =/

    Not to mention the Bills going undefeated the rest of the season as well. )))

    Still, fun scenario. Thanks!!!
    Last edited by Kaziganth; 11-19-2019 at 05:38 PM.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by yordad View Post
    Denver - 65% chance Bills WIN

    @ Dallas - 48% chance Bills WIN

    Baltimore -
    48% chance Bills WIN

    @ Pittsburgh - 55% chance Bills WIN

    @ New England - 25% chance Bills WIN

    New York Jets - 65% chance Bills
    WIN


    ​So, looks like Im more optimistic than you.

    Denver 70 percent chance Bills Win

    Dallas 35 percent chance Bills win

    Baltimore 5 percent chance Bills win

    Pitt 50 percent chance Bills win

    Patriots 0 percent Bills win

    Jets 85 percent Bills win.

    11-5

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    I think the chances of a 10-6 season is close to a lock.

    Wins vs Den, Pitt and NYJ are all 75% chance. Denver is a mess. Pittsburgh looks like ****. And the Jets, well...are the Jets. None of those teams have the tools to beat the Bills defense.

    The main obstacle will be if the Jets game is a "rest the starters" if a win will not change their playoff position.

    I think the Bills will give the Pats a run for their money. Brady is looking old. Their defense is strong, but not invincible. Most of their wins have come against ****ty teams. The Eagles played like crap this week (Wentz is looking very, very shaky...there is questioning if he's a "franchise QB") and they still won by only 7. And that took a razzle dazzle play at that.

    Baltimore...forget it. They are looking like the best team in the league. Dallas does not impress me at all. They have lots of weaknesses....just like the Bills.

    So...9-7 if they don't need the Jets game. Probably 10-6. Chance at 11-5.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tailgunner Joe View Post
    Denver 70 percent chance Bills Win

    Dallas 35 percent chance Bills win

    Baltimore 5 percent chance Bills win

    Pitt 50 percent chance Bills win

    Patriots 0 percent Bills win

    Jets 85 percent Bills win.

    11-5
    With your optimistic ( IMHO ) percentages, 11-5 would still mean they get "lucky" and win both games that you have at 35% and 50% -- with the presumption that they lose the games you have at 5% and 0% chance of winning. I think 10-6 would be more realistic using your percentages, but I guess you're saying a few bounces go their way as well. ))

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaziganth View Post
    With your optimistic ( IMHO ) percentages, 11-5 would still mean they get "lucky" and win both games that you have at 35% and 50% -- with the presumption that they lose the games you have at 5% and 0% chance of winning. I think 10-6 would be more realistic using your percentages, but I guess you're saying a few bounces go their way as well. ))
    I think 11-5 is possible, but yeah 10-6 is more likely. Again, I see us losing to one more team (Cleveland being the other) that we should have beaten and beating a team (it could be Dallas, Baltimore, or New England, but I see us winning one of those) that we should lose to. Playoffs? Well, I still see one and done. We have a core of players who is good enough to get tickets to the show, but right now they only good enough to sit in the upper balcony and not the orchestra pit.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    If we make the playoffs, "one and done" makes sense as a Wildcard since we'd likely face either NE or Baltimore. Not 0% chance of a win, but probably close to it if both teams facing off against each other are relatively healthy.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jimkelly12203 View Post
    OMG if this happens (an 11 win NE team missing the playoffs) and us getting a bye week, i'd be sooooo happy.
    Don't count your chickens before they hatch.
    Welcome to Buffalo Carter Hutton

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaziganth View Post
    If we make the playoffs, "one and done" makes sense as a Wildcard since we'd likely face either NE or Baltimore. Not 0% chance of a win, but probably close to it if both teams facing off against each other are relatively healthy.
    You remember that 7-3 loss at Jacksonville a couple years ago? I see a repeat of that happening in Kansas City. I see us going to Arrowhead and losing 17-16 as Mahomes kills us with a last minute drive.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Swiper View Post
    Don't count your chickens before they hatch.
    It would be surreal for sure. Like the first time the G-men beat that perfect (to that point) cheater team. I remember thinking i was in the twilight zone when the Giants won. It was like a wonderful miracle.

    an 11 win pats team out of the playoffs with Brady healthy would be the same. It's possible, but i wouldn't bet any more than a nickel on it actually happening.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Just started thinking what needs to happen if we somehow lose to Denver. That's going to mean we have to win the next game at Dallas, traveling there on a short week. And then also get a win against the Steelers and the Jets. Just thinking aloud. A loss to the Broncos definitely puts us in a bad position for the playoff; even though we only drop to 7-4, the road to the playoffs becomes much more difficult. Not to mention the loss of momentum, moral, etc.
    Last edited by Kaziganth; 11-20-2019 at 08:03 AM.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tailgunner Joe View Post
    I think 11-5 is possible, but yeah 10-6 is more likely. Again, I see us losing to one more team (Cleveland being the other) that we should have beaten and beating a team (it could be Dallas, Baltimore, or New England, but I see us winning one of those) that we should lose to. Playoffs? Well, I still see one and done. We have a core of players who is good enough to get tickets to the show, but right now they only good enough to sit in the upper balcony and not the orchestra pit.
    Certainly it looks that way. BUT...and a big BUT, it depends on who they play in the first round.

    As of today, if the playoffs were to start....the Bills would have the 5th seed and they would play Indy who has the 4th seed.

    Uhhhhh....the Bills could beat Indy. In fact, I would put money down that they would.

    Too many variables and many of the teams in the top 6 of AFC play each other. It's going to be very interesting to see how this unfolds.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by notacon View Post
    Certainly it looks that way. BUT...and a big BUT, it depends on who they play in the first round.

    As of today, if the playoffs were to start....the Bills would have the 5th seed and they would play Indy who has the 4th seed.

    Uhhhhh....the Bills could beat Indy. In fact, I would put money down that they would.

    Too many variables and many of the teams in the top 6 of AFC play each other. It's going to be very interesting to see how this unfolds.
    Oh, I forget about the #1 and #2 seeds getting a bye. =/

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaziganth View Post
    Just started thinking what needs to happen if we somehow lose to Denver. That's going to mean we have to win the next game at Dallas, traveling there on a short week. And then also get a win against the Steelers and the Jets. Just thinking aloud. A loss to the Broncos definitely puts us in a bad position for the playoff; even though we only drop to 7-4, the road to the playoffs becomes much more difficult. Not to mention the loss of momentum, moral, etc.
    A loss to the Broncos is devastating. Another AFC loss kills us in tiebreaker scenarios if we're stuck at 9-7. It would mean the only way to guarantee playoffs is DEFINITELY beating the Steelers and Jets AND taking at least one game from the Pats, Cowboys or Ravens, preferably one of the AFC teams for tiebreakers. It's not impossible but it's sure as hell not easy and I don't know if this roster is capable of it.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by OpIv37 View Post
    NJB and Denver should be wins.

    Pitt is a toss up. Normally I would call a game in Pitt an automatic loss, but they're so banged up right now. The Bills can win this game although I'm not sure that they will.

    I don't see this team beating NE, Baltimore or Dallas. Of those 3, Dallas has been inconsistent and that's probably our best chance for a W but I don't see them rolling over on T day in their house.

    It's going to come down to the Pitt and Dallas games.
    This
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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Here were my thoughts before the season (posted on a different board as a reply to the question where do we get win 10 games): Definite wins 1 of Jets games, both Miami games, NYG, Cincinnati, Washington, Denver, Baltimore (Anyone who thinks Lamar Jackson is winning in Buffalo has lost their mind), Split among road games at Tennessee & Cleveland 9th win, 1 more win in games against New England (2), Philadelphia, Dallas, & Pittsburgh.

    So far we have the 1 Jets win & are looking for the 2nd. All the definites except the yet to be played 2 games have been wins, & we got the Tennessee/Cleveland split. Baltimore looks tougher than I thought but a 2nd Jets win would offset a Baltimore loss. I'm not conceding Baltimore as a loss since it is a home game. The most likely win of the 5 games I only gave us 1 win in is Pittsburgh, but I wouldn't be shocked if we go to Dallas and get a statement win on national TV. We may be traveling on a short week but so is Dallas since they play in NE. Over the next week Dallas will have twice as many flights leading up to the game as the Bills. If Dallas is so good they wouldn't have lost to the Jets, who then went to Miami & got beat by the Dolphins.
    Last edited by Albany,n.y.; 11-21-2019 at 08:05 PM.

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    Re: Is There A Path to 10-6 ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaziganth View Post
    For fun, what's the path to 10-6 ?

    << My "percentage" WIN predictions from an older thread, updated with my current thoughts...

    Here's my take on the remaining games:
    =============================================

    @ Cleveland - I see this game as "even" ( roughly 50/50 chance ) -- RESULT ( LOSS )
    @ Miami - I see this game as "even" ( roughly 50/50 chance ) -- RESULT ( WIN! )


    /////////


    Denver - 65% chance Bills WIN -- I'll lower this to a 55% chance Bills WIN because Brandon Allen seems pretty decent the last couple games, but J. Allen did well too.

    @ Dallas - 30% chance Bills WIN -- I'll lower this to a 25% chance Bills WIN because short week for both teams but Bills have to travel to Dallas on a short week.
    Baltimore - 25% chance Bills WIN -- I'll lower this to a 10% chance Bills WIN because, well... the Ravens are looking pretty nasty.
    @ Pittsburgh - 25% chance Bills WIN -- I'll up this to "even" ( roughly 50/50 chance ) as the Bills looked good against Miami.
    @ New England - 10% chance Bills WIN -- same percentage.

    New York Jets - 65% chance Bills WIN -- I'll lower this to "even" ( roughly 50/50 chance ) as Jets look pretty decent last few games with Sammy back as QB.


    **Disclaimer: that's with everything (QB's, key players, etc.) as it stands today.

    ///

    With all of that in mind, I see an 8-8 or 9-7 finish unless the Bills get "lucky" and win all three of the roughly "50% to 55% chance win games" (Broncos, Pitt, and Jets).

    GO BILLS! Defy the odds!
    You're a tough, grader, like a teacher whose top grade is a C & gets called into the superintendent's office and told that they're making the school look bad. You're making the Bills look bad.

    Here are my percentages:
    Denver 75%
    Dallas 45%
    Baltimore 40%
    Pittsburgh 60%
    New England 20%
    NY Jets 75%

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