2022 Roster Analysis

[YardRat]

Current Roster
(adjusted cap with rollover $211,919,870)
(estimated cap space including (futures) = (- $ 1.375 million)

QB-Allen
OT-Dawkins, Brown, Doyle
C-Morse
G-Williams, Feliciano, Ford
OL-(Capra)
RB-Singletary, Moss, (Wade*)
FB-Gilliam
WR-Beasley, Diggs, Davis, Stevenson, (Gentry), (Hodgins)
TE-Knox, Sweeney, (Morris)

LB-Milano, Edmunds, Klein, Matakevich, Smith, (Giles-Harris)
DT-Star, Oliver(Bryant)
DE-Rousseau, Epenesa, Basham, (Love)
CB-Tre’, TJohnson, Jackson, Lewis, (Harris), (McCloud) (Griffin)
S-Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, Hamlin, (Thomas)
K-Bass
P-Haack
LS-Ferguson

Trade—Edmunds + 12,716,000
Cut—Williams +6,325,000…Star +4,026,471…Haack +1,200,000…Ford +1,500,000
Re-structure—Morse +4,250,000…Beasley +3,050,000…Klein +2,500,000
Extend—Knox 4 years $36mil, year 1 cap $5.5 (-3,000,000)
Exercise—Oliver’s 5th-year option.

Estimated cap after above moves = +31,200,000

Edmunds is OK, but he is a weak link on the defense and needs to be upgraded. For what he actually brings to the table on Sundays he’s not worth the 5th year option, let alone a healthy extension. Biggest move available to clear some badly needed cap space, so pull the trigger for picks or move up while the perceived value is high. Williams regressed and can be replaced, Star is MIA too often, Haack was a mistake and the Ford experiment should be over.

Morse, Beasley and Klein are all basically converting the remaining one year salary to guaranteed signing bonuses and adding a year. Clearing cap space and keeping a few guys that should still be solid contributors for ‘22 and ‘23. Gives the team an extra season to find/groom replacements for center and slot too. Sign Knox now, he’s earned it and is only going to get more expensive.

[YardRat]

Free agents–

QB-Trubisky, (Webb)
G-Boettger, Bates
OT-Hart
RB-Jones, Brieda
WR-McKenzie, Kumerow, Sanders

LB-Dodson
DE- Hughes, Addison, Obada
DT-Butler, Phillips, Zimmer
CB-Wallace, Neal


Re-sign — Boettger -3,000,000…Bates -3,000,000…Dodson -965,000…Obada -1,200,000…
Phillips -5,400,000…Zimmer -965,000…Neal -965,000…Hughes -3,300,000 or Addison -3,300,000

Estimated cap after above re-signings = +12,405,000

Boettger and Bates are most likely the starting guards next season, both need to be retained. Dodson, Obada, Zimmer, Neal are pretty cheap depth. Phillips has earned a new contract, but nothing bank-breaking. Either Hughes or Addison should be back for one last season…vet presence and leadership for a young unit. Can’t afford both, and I would prefer Hughes because he’s still effective with pressure and has earned one last kick at a title. If I could manage to sign one more guy it would be Kumerow, he’s an asset to special teams and a good blocker when going run-heavy.

I think Wallace and McKenzie are going to be too expensive to keep, and that’s OK. Time for Jackson to fill that #2 spot at least, or maybe we get lucky with a rookie or cheaper vet. McKenzie is a nice gadget player that has one great game per season, but that’s not enough. Let’s see if Stevenson can fill that role, or another later-round rookie draft pick.

The estimated rookie pool for Buffalo is ~$9,564,423 with an estimated cap effect of ~$3,219,413 so that would leave approximately $9,185,587 for free agents and in-season “bank”.

[YardRat]

Free agent Targets–

QB–Trubisky, Webb, Mariota
OLine–Chuks Okorafor, Geron Christian, Jamarco Jones, Roger Saffold
RB–
WR–Andy Isabella**
TE–Kyle Rudolph

LBer–

Edge- Shaq Lawson
DT–
CB-
P–

Trubisky or Mariota -2,500,000
Make Webb the new QB coach

There isn’t going to be much money for free agency, especially for any kind of splash signing, so we’ll have to roll with cheap depth and maybe a couple of vets on one year deals from other teams’ cuts (like Jordan Phillips if he’s a cap casualty in Arizona)

Definitely need a back-up QB though. I would prefer to keep Trubisky another season even if it means bumping him to $3.5 mil but I’m not confident he’ll want to stick around…may follow Daboll to NYG or find an opportunity to compete for a starting spot elsewhere.

I’ll fill this in as the off-season progresses and I do more research.

**Isabella would have to be traded for (Beasley?) or picked up if cut by Arizona.

[DraftBoy]

I don’t think we’re getting Phillips at 5.4 per year considering he’s going to be starting. Also pass on Zimmer, Hughes and Addison unless it’s impossible to find other options.

[YardRat]

Draft–

9 picks to date—1(25), 2,(57) 3(89), 4(121), 5(153), 6(166)(from Car), 6(184), 7(201)(from Atl), 7(216)

LBer–Nakobi Dean (Ga), Devin Lloyd, (Utah) Damone Clark (LSU)
G–Zion Johnson (BC), Alec Lindstrom (BC), Dylan Parham (Memphis). Logan Bruss (Wisc),
OT-Kellen Diesch (AzSt),
C-Luke Fortner, (Ky)
RB–KWalker III (MichST), Spiller (TA&M), Cook (Ga), Robinson (Bama), Breece Hall (IowaSt)
CB–Cobe Bryant (Cinci),
DT–Jordan Davis (Ga), John Ridgeway (Ark), Jayden Peevy (TA&M),
Edge-Nick Bonito (OK), Isaiah Thomas (OK)
P–
WR-Jameson Williams (Bama), Calvin Austin III (Mem),
TE-Greg Dulcich (UCLA),


We absolutely need at least five solid contributors from this draft, beginning with a starting MLB, an interior lineman that can either start or be G#3, and a RB. Another corner, DT and maybe a cheap P that can hold would be nice.

I am all-in on Nakobi Dean, Georgia, as much as they were on Josh and (to a slightly lesser extent) Edmunds in ‘18. This defense gets better with a legitimate play-maker, not just space-taker, at middle linebacker and Dean is the best of this class by a lot. With 9 picks and Edmunds possibly still an asset to use on draft day there is no reason we shouldn’t be able to move up to get him if we have to.

Lindstrom is a center that can start out at guard and back up Morse, and Cook is a swiss-army-type weapon that can run, line up as a receiver, and is a decent blocker. He’s fast, has good vision and quick feet. Personally I’d prefer a bigger back that can pound and complement Singletary but I don’t think McBeane are looking for that type of back (unfortunately).

Like free agency, I’ll fill this in as we move forward toward the draft.

[YardRat]

So right now, with the ‘current’ projected roster in bold font, we would stand at 43 roster spots and 10 more to fill from free agency, the draft, other teams’ cap cuts and existing players under contract but not included in the final 53 yet.

QB–(2)-Allen, Mariota
OT–(3)-Dawkins, Brown, Doyle
C–(1)-Morse
G–(4)-Boettger, Bates,Feliciano. Alec Lindstrom
OL-(Capra)
RB–(3)-Singletary, Moss,Cook, (Wade*)
FB–(1)-Gilliam
WR–(4)-Beasley, Diggs, Davis, Stevenson, (Gentry), (Hodgins)
TE–(2)-Knox, Sweeney, (Morris)

LB–(5)-Milano,Nakobi Dean, Klein, Dodson, Matakevich,Smith, (Giles-Harris)
DT–(3)-Oliver, Phillips, Zimmer, (Bryant)
DE-–(5)-Rousseau, Epenesa, Basham,Hughes,Obada, (Love)
CB–(4)-Tre’, TJohnson, Jackson, Neal, Lewis, (Harris), (McCloud) (Griffin)
S–(4)-Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, Hamlin, (Thomas)
K–(1)-Bass
P–(1)-
LS–(1)-Ferguson

IMO the spots to fill are 1-OT/G, 2-WR, 1-DT, 1-DE, 1-LB, 2-CB, 1-P with a last spot for a skill position player (WR, RB, TE, CB, S) on either side of the ball.

[YardRat]

I don’t think we’re getting Phillips at 5.4 per year considering he’s going to be starting. Also pass on Zimmer, Hughes and Addison unless it’s impossible to find other options.

That would just be the cap hit for the first year.

[DraftBoy]

That would just be the cap hit for the first year.

Not sure a guy whose yet to hit his payday is going to be looking for a deal that delays his cash.

[YardRat]

Not sure a guy whose yet to hit his payday is going to be looking for a deal that delays his cash.

Signing bonuses get paid up front and prorated over the life of the contract up to 5 years (if it's structured very basically, Beane is actually more creative), it isn't delaying cash. The league minimum for Harrison will be $1.035 million so an initial cap hit of $5.4 would mean a signing bonus of approximately $13mil for a three year contract and the annual salary could escalate to put him in the $20 million range. I don't think he'd feel too bad about that.

[Kenny]

Draft–

9 picks to date—1(25), 2,(57) 3(89), 4(121), 5(153), 6(166)(from Car), 6(184), 7(201)(from Atl), 7(216)

LBer–Nakobi Dean, Devin Lloyd
G–Zion Johnson, Alec Lindstrom,
RB–KWalker III, Spiller, Cook, Robinson
CB–
DT–
P–

We absolutely need at least five solid contributors from this draft, beginning with a starting MLB, an interior lineman that can either start or be G#3, and a RB. Another corner, DT and maybe a cheap P that can hold would be nice.

I am all-in on Nakobi Dean, Georgia, as much as they were on Josh and (to a slightly lesser extent) Edmunds in ‘18. This defense gets better with a legitimate play-maker, not just space-taker, at middle linebacker and Dean is the best of this class by a lot. With 9 picks and Edmunds possibly still an asset to use on draft day there is no reason we shouldn’t be able to move up to get him if we have to.

Lindstrom is a center that can start out at guard and back up Morse, and Cook is a swiss-army-type weapon that can run, line up as a receiver, and is a decent blocker. He’s fast, has good vision and quick feet. Personally I’d prefer a bigger back that can pound and complement Singletary but I don’t think McBeane are looking for that type of back (unfortunately).

Like free agency, I’ll fill this in as we move forward toward the draft.

Dean seems kind of a luxury pick no? I agree Edmunds is nothing special, and is as average as you can get, but to (likely) give up draft capital for a guy the exact same size as Milano is risky

[YardRat]

I think it's a necessity. Need a playmaker in the middle, somebody with excellent read and react skills. Makes the defense better as soon as he steps on the field.

[DraftBoy]

Signing bonuses get paid up front and prorated over the life of the contract up to 5 years (if it's structured very basically, Beane is actually more creative), it isn't delaying cash. The league minimum for Harrison will be $1.035 million so an initial cap hit of $5.4 would mean a signing bonus of approximately $13mil for a three year contract and the annual salary could escalate to put him in the $20 million range. I don't think he'd feel too bad about that.

Considering the Bills gave Butler a two year $15 million dollar deal with a $2 million signing bonus, I think you're looking at Phillips close to 3 yrs and 24 million with whatever signing bonus you tack on top of that. If Beane can structure it keep the initial cap hit to be at $5.4 million then that's great, but he likely has to guarantee more of the backend to do it. I know Sportrac projects a market value of $5.4 million but their comparisons are for players that I believe are of a lower standard than Phillips. Should be interesting.

[Saratoga Slim]

Current Roster
(adjusted cap with rollover $211,919,870)
(estimated cap space including (futures) = (- $ 1.375 million)

QB-Allen
OT-Dawkins, Brown, Doyle
C-Morse
G-Williams, Feliciano, Ford
OL-(Capra)
RB-Singletary, Moss, (Wade*)
FB-Gilliam
WR-Beasley, Diggs, Davis, Stevenson, (Gentry), (Hodgins)
TE-Knox, Sweeney, (Morris)

LB-Milano, Edmunds, Klein, Matakevich, Smith, (Giles-Harris)
DT-Star, Oliver(Bryant)
DE-Rousseau, Epenesa, Basham, (Love)
CB-Tre’, TJohnson, Jackson, Lewis, (Harris), (McCloud) (Griffin)
S-Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, Hamlin, (Thomas)
K-Bass
P-Haack
LS-Ferguson

Trade—Edmunds + 12,716,000
Cut—Williams +6,325,000…Star +4,026,471…Haack +1,200,000…Ford +1,500,000
Re-structure—Morse +4,250,000…Beasley +3,050,000…Klein +2,500,000
Extend—Knox 4 years $36mil, year 1 cap $5.5 (-3,000,000)
Exercise—Oliver’s 5th-year option.

Estimated cap after above moves = +31,200,000

Edmunds is OK, but he is a weak link on the defense and needs to be upgraded. For what he actually brings to the table on Sundays he’s not worth the 5th year option, let alone a healthy extension. Biggest move available to clear some badly needed cap space, so pull the trigger for picks or move up while the perceived value is high. Williams regressed and can be replaced, Star is MIA too often, Haack was a mistake and the Ford experiment should be over.

Morse, Beasley and Klein are all basically converting the remaining one year salary to guaranteed signing bonuses and adding a year. Clearing cap space and keeping a few guys that should still be solid contributors for ‘22 and ‘23. Gives the team an extra season to find/groom replacements for center and slot too. Sign Knox now, he’s earned it and is only going to get more expensive.

Nice work YardRat. I like most of this, including that we need to bring Hughes back on a cheaper deal to have some vet presence in that room. I suppose if they find a younger, better vet pass rusher to replace him that's fine too.

It also puts into perspective that we really don't have much cap space this winter. Even with the big moves you propose (trading Edmunds and cutting Williams & Star), that's still not a lot of remaining cash for FA moves.

[OpIv37]

no one is going to trade for Edmunds at $12+ mil a season.

[notacon]

The Bills would be idiots to trade Edmunds. He is NOT a “weak link” on the defense. How ridiculous. The haters have literally no idea what they are talking about.

The Bills are probably going to sign him to a much deserved extension. Sportrac estimates his value at $13.8 million and the Bills would be smart to tie him into a long term contract at about that price before the market for LB’s starts going up and up.

THANK GOD that none of the bloviating Edmunds haters here have ANY say in what the Buffalo Bills professional organization does, nor are taken seriously by ANY NFL professional.

If Beane reads some of the crap that is written here, after he finishes laughing his ass off, he will give that stupid idea exactly the due it deserves.

IGNORE IT COMPLETELY because he knows it is coming from “fans” that have no earthy idea what they are taking about.

[notacon]

no one is going to trade for Edmunds at $12+ mil a season.

Actually, most of the GM’s in the NFL would be falling over themselves to grab Edmunds for just $12+ mil a season.

[Forward_Lateral]

Why on earth would you cut Williams? Unless you are drafting an absolute beast RG, who comes into camp and just blows you away, you don't cut your starting RG who played 98% of the snaps this year.

[notacon]

Why on earth would you cut Williams? Unless you are drafting an absolute beast RG, who comes into camp and just blows you away, you don't cut your starting RG who played 98% of the snaps this year.

I agree. That would be a dumb move.

But, since he signed a new contract in 2021 for tackle, it might be better to restructure his deal more in line for a G.

[Forward_Lateral]

I agree. That would be a dumb move.

But, since he signed a new contract in 2021 for tackle, it might be better to restructure his deal more in line for a G.

Restructure, sure. If I'm the Bills I'd restructure any player willing to do so.

[YardRat]

Considering the Bills gave Butler a two year $15 million dollar deal with a $2 million signing bonus, I think you're looking at Phillips close to 3 yrs and 24 million with whatever signing bonus you tack on top of that. If Beane can structure it keep the initial cap hit to be at $5.4 million then that's great, but he likely has to guarantee more of the backend to do it. I know Sportrac projects a market value of $5.4 million but their comparisons are for players that I believe are of a lower standard than Phillips. Should be interesting.

Phillips may get 3 yrs 24mil (which can still produce a first year cap hit of $5.4 mil), I really don't see him getting 3/24 plus a signing bonus on top. That's waaaaaay over market.