ESPN’s Football Power Index Projections for 2022....Bills #1

[notacon]

NFL season projections 2022: Win-loss records, playoff and Super Bowl chances from Football Power Index

The Bills might have ended last season with a coin flip and heartbreak, but according to ESPN's Football Power Index, they enter the 2022 NFL season as the best team in football and the Super Bowl favorites.


Buffalo leads ESPN's FPI preseason ratings -- which were released on Tuesday -- and is about a half-point clear of Green Bay, the model's No. 2 team. Projections-wise, our FPI rankings see a fairly even field, with the Bills at the top with a 7% chance to win Super Bowl LVII, followed closely by the Rams (7%), Packers (6%), Chiefs (6%) and Chargers (6%).


But what is our Football Power Index? It is our predictive model that includes ratings andprojections for every NFL team, from how good they are on defense to what their chances are of winning their division. During this offseason, ESPN Analytics executed an overhaul of the model, and a full description of changes and improvements can be found at the bottom. One key change to point out: The preseason version of FPI has been untethered from betting markets, which previously were heavy drivers of the offseason model.


But enough about the math, let's talk football. Here are eight takeaways from the 2022 ratings -- and a detailed explanation of changes to the model -- starting with the league's best team.

And the results...

FPI joins Bills Mafia

It's not a shock to see the Bills at the top of the rankings, considering the team's performance last season. They closed the year looking like the best team in football, and quarterback Josh Allen had one of the greatest games of all time in Buffalo's 47-17 playoff victory over the Patriots. But No. 1 is No. 1, so what put Buffalo over the top for FPI?


It starts with Allen. The fifth-year QB ranks third in our predictive quarterback rating, behind only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers but ahead of Patrick Mahomes. He is obviously a threat through the air and on the ground, and he's a big reason why the Bills edge the other 31 teams here.


But as we saw from Buffalo last season, it doesn't end with Allen. The Bills boast a high-end No. 1 receiver in Stefon Diggsand an above-average offensive line, and they led the league in defensive efficiency last season. That came before signing Von Miller this offseason, which will only help the cause. There are not many holes on this team.

So even though the Bills are favorites to win the Super Bowl, why only 7%? The Chiefs, last year's top team going in, were at 19% in the 2021 preseason. In short, we upgraded our process to better account for the variance between teams' expected ability and what their actual ability turns out to be. Plus, there are quite a few contenders close to Buffalo's talent level. Thus, there are plenty of other teams that could end up better than Buffalo -- and of course, every team still has to manage at least three postseason wins to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, no matter how good they are on paper.

more...

Now, before the Nattering Nabobs of Negativity start ****ting on projections like these, this simply illustrates what everyone that has even a rudimental appreciation of the NFL today, that the Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL and the favorite to not only get to the Super Bowl, but WIN their first one.

Will it happen???

THAT’S WHY THE GAMES ARE PLAYED!!!!

Any True Blue Bills fan should be extremely excited for the upcoming season.

And the NFL schedule makers and the broadcasters have just as much excitement and expectation of the Bills as one of THE marquee teams, and Josh Allen as one of THE marquee players in the league.

That’s why they are kicking off the season in LA. That’s why the Bills are closing out the Monday night football season at Cincy. That’s why the Bills are playing on Thanksgiving for the second year in a row. That's why the Bills have the KC game in the late afternoon national TV window in week #6. That’s why there is a strong possibility that the week #15 game vs Miami and the week #18 game vs the Pats are probably going to be flexed into national TV games.


Peter Schrager on GMFB put it perfectly yesterday when talking about the “biggest takeaways from the 2022 schedule” he said that “The NFL is banking on this man right here (pointing to the picture of Josh Allen on the box of “Josh’s Jag’” cereal). The NFL is thinking that this guy is going to be legit.”.....”My big takeaway is that the Buffalo Bills are a marquee team”...

Yeah.. The Buffalo Bills have the RESPECT of the whole NFL world, and instead of a joke franchise, and now considered one the BEST “marquee” franchises in the NFL.

It’s a GREAT TIME to be a Bills fan.

[OpIv37]

power rankings

[sukie]

This merely states that they “believe” and or have the “opinion” that the Bills are the best. It’s a popularity thing nothing more.

[notacon]

And here we go. Just like I predicted.....The first and only responses are Nattering Nabobs of Negativity. How disgustingly ****ing typical.


Is this forum really a Bills “FAN” site or an underground New England Patriots one?!?!?

[Woodman]

power rankings

All part of our experience

[Woodman]

This merely states that they “believe” and or have the “opinion” that the Bills are the best. It’s a popularity thing nothing more.

Being popular rocks!!!

[sahlensguy]

Well I'd say that we won the offseason...

[sukie]

And here we go. Just like I predicted.....The first and only responses are Nattering Nabobs of Negativity. How disgustingly ****ing typical.


Is this forum really a Bills “FAN” site or an underground New England Patriots one?!?!?

Dude, power rankings before a snap takes place is nothing but opinion NOT fact. Do I like the ranking? Sure but let’s not plan the parade route based on only opinions…. Oh wait, you only take to heart others opinions.

[Woodman]

Well I'd say that we won the offseason...

They do seem to love us.

[OpIv37]

And here we go. Just like I predicted.....The first and only responses are Nattering Nabobs of Negativity. How disgustingly ****ing typical.


Is this forum really a Bills “FAN” site or an underground New England Patriots one?!?!?

And here we ****ing go again. Anything that isn't "RAH! GO BILLS! LET'S ORDER OUR SUPER BOWL CHAMPS MERCH IN MAY!" is considered "negativity" by you.

There's no negativity here. Power rankings are bull****. It's just one person's opinion before anyone has played a game or even finalized their roster. When we were bad and people whined that we were ranked 27th when we should have been 23rd, I said power rankings were bull**** and it doesn't matter. I'm still saying they're bull**** now that we're ranked #1.

The reality is that some *******'s opinion in May has ZERO effect on the outcome of this season. But you're starting with the conclusion that we're gonna win the SB and working backwards to find any little scrap of evidence to support your preconceived notion. And you're calling anything that challenges that "negativity."

[notacon]

Dude, power rankings before a snap takes place is nothing but opinion NOT fact. Do I like the ranking? Sure but let’s not plan the parade route based on only opinions…. Oh wait, you only take to heart others opinions.

Dude....this is NOT a traditional “power ranking”. Of course you probably did not bother to actually read on what this is. They describe what “Football Power Index” is.....

Methodology updates for 2022




ESPN's FPI was upgraded and modified this offseason. For the preseason version that we discuss here, the most notable change was moving away from gambling lines as an input. We previously used win totals paired with the schedule as a significant driver of preseason ratings, but betting markets are no longer in the model. Instead, preseason ratings are determined through a combination of past team performance, our predictive EPA/play metric for all starting and backup quarterbacks, and a predictive rating for non-QB starters based on an ensemble of several player ratings, including Pro Football Reference's approximate value and our own win rates for offensive and defensive linemen.


Our FPI also now includes predictive unit ratings that can be broken out into run and pass games (e.g. rushing offense, pass defense, etc.). The game prediction model considers each of those unit ratings and factors in how frequently an offense passes above or below expectation given a game situation. For instance, the Chiefs' offensive advantage from passing is slightly more pronounced than it would be for a typical team because they pass more often than most after controlling for the game scenario. The model also now dynamically updates to reflect the current degree of home-field advantage.


We also upgraded the way the model handles uncertainty within our projection system. While each team's FPI rating is our best estimate for how strong that team is relative to a league-average opponent, the model recognizes that there are significant error bands around that estimate. Therefore, in some estimates each team's rating will be higher than our best estimate, and in others it will be lower. That gives a more realistic simulation overall, as well as more realistic projections based on a certain scenario. For example, if we ask the model for the Jets' chances to win the Super Bowl if they start 4-0, the resulting simulations where the Jets do go 4-0 are more likely to be those where their rating is higher than what we expect. Therefore, those ratings and simulations determine the Jets' Super Bowl chances after the 4-0 start.

This is a “predictive” analytic. And they have years (since 2015) of PFI that anyone can look at. And the relative historical accuracy is undeniable (and the index changes as the season progresses, based on measurable performance)

Of course there is some “opinion”. But depending on HOW that “opinion” is derived, determines the relative accuracy and value. And the relative accuracy and value of the FPI is undeniable.

Of course, the Nattering Nabobs of Negativity, care more about crapping on the Bills than anything. They simply refuse to accept the idea that the Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL.

That’s YOUR problem, not mine. I’m going to enjoy the **** out of this team and this season.


There are 15 more Thursdays until the season starts. The cynics and fake “fans” will spend that time doing all they can to denigrate the Bills and the lofty and fully deserved high expectations.


I don't give a ****.

I’m going to spend the next 15 weeks reveling in the respect and expectation of a magical season that is on the precipice of a magical decade+ of the Buffalo Bills being perennial contenders.


We True Blue Bills fans had only NINE years of that feeling when Jim Kelly was QB between 1988 up until his retirement in in 1996. His first two years were similar to the first two years of the Josh Allen era.

Kelly’s first year (playing....the terrible owner Wilson **** the bed by refusing to pay Kelly after he was drafted in 1983) in 1986, the Bills record improved from the 1985 debacle of a 2-14 record to 4-12. 1987 saw further improvement to 7-8.

The Bills exploded to a 12-4 record in 1988 losing the AFC conference championship. 1989 saw the Bills regressing a little bit to a 9-7 record and losing their only playoff game. (Sound familiar as compared to the Bills 2020 & 2021 seasons????)

Then the the next four years saw the Bills win four consecutive AFC Championships (a record that sill stands). Despite the four consecutive Super Bowl losses (a record that still stands) that achievement was something special.....possibly never to be repeated.

THIS team is on the same trajectory, although there WILL BE Super Bowl WINS on the horizon.

THAT'S what a True Blue Bills fan has to look forward to. And I’m going to enjoy every second.

[The last buffalo fan]

[Woodman]

Win it all baby!!!

[sukie]

Notty doesn’t grasp that any computer program or model has assumption inputs. Every possible variable is assumption.

If this happens, then this happens.

just because it removes a certain criteria doesn’t make it less of an opinion based ranking.

how much of your retirement income will you place on this ranking? If it’s such a factual result… bet the house.

it’s a ranking before rosters in place and before injuries.

it’s a feel good piece. I feel good. You sure do. It’s not worth a subscription to ESPN.

OPiV doesn’t feel good .

[swiper]

Completely meaningless.

[OpIv37]

OPiV doesn’t feel good .

I don't feel anything. I'd feel the same way if they had us ranked #32.

Like you said: even with a computer program, someone had to decide which inputs to use, and how to weight those inputs against each other. It's a bit more scientific than a sports writer just ranking teams based on his opinion of which one is better, but it's still far from a perfect process.

[notacon]

Completely meaningless.

Yes....your post is exactly that!!!

[notacon]

BTW...to all the cynics and quasi “fans” of the Bills that say that educated and realistic analysis like preseted by ESPN (and a host of others) are “meaningless”.....

Then it follows that every single post here is even MORE “meaningless”. MUCH MORE “meaningless”.

Everyone has an opinion....some are more accurate, well informed, credible, valuable and worthy of attention than others.

I (and everyone else who is intellectually honest) knows that analysis by professional NFL experts are MUCH more accurate, well informed, credible, valuable and worthy of attention than ANY post here (including my own).


And THAT is why I post and quote these extremely valuable articles.


Dismissing them out of hand is foolish and arrogantly ignorant.

[OpIv37]

BTW...to all the cynics and quasi “fans” of the Bills that say that educated and realistic analysis like preseted by ESPN (and a host of others) are “meaningless”.....

Then it follows that every single post here is even MORE “meaningless”. MUCH MORE “meaningless”.

Everyone has an opinion....some are more accurate, well informed, credible, valuable and worthy of attention than others.

I (and everyone else who is intellectually honest) knows that analysis by professional NFL experts are MUCH more accurate, well informed, credible, valuable and worthy of attention than ANY post here (including my own).


And THAT is why I post and quote these extremely valuable articles.


Dismissing them out of hand is foolish and arrogantly ignorant.

So, you're saying that the posts here are meaningless, but then saying that these articles are more accurate than the posts here. Well, if our posts are meaningless, then being better than here really isn't any sort of accomplishment.

And, a lot of these predictions turn out to not be nearly as accurate as you're making them seem.

[sukie]

BTW...to all the cynics and quasi “fans” of the Bills that say that educated and realistic analysis like preseted by ESPN (and a host of others) are “meaningless”.....

Then it follows that every single post here is even MORE “meaningless”. MUCH MORE “meaningless”.

Everyone has an opinion....some are more accurate, well informed, credible, valuable and worthy of attention than others.

I (and everyone else who is intellectually honest) knows that analysis by professional NFL experts are MUCH more accurate, well informed, credible, valuable and worthy of attention than ANY post here (including my own).


And THAT is why I post and quote these extremely valuable articles.


Dismissing them out of hand is foolish and arrogantly ignorant.

What is ignorant about dismissing a pre preseason power ranking? There is nothing tangible there. Fluffy warmth and that is it.