Control Donald, Control the Game

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Looking back last year, over the course of 17 games regular season, I noticed two things.

1. The defense has deficiency in stopping the runs. Titans, Indy, and 1st Pats games are proof that teams can pound the rock on the Bills to score and limit possessions to Allen to win.
2. If D-line can get into Allen's face consistently, they will force bad games from Allen to win. Steelers and Jaguars games are proof of that.

This off-season, most people will point to Von Miller signing as the biggest impact to address defense. To me, that's for the playoff, for one game that you must have, you need that superstar doing superstar things that good players cannot do. Honestly I don't expect Von to do that consistently in regular season. He's past his prime at his age. The signings of DaQuan Jones and Tim Settle are more directly at addressing 1 above. We really don't have the linebackers who excel at stopping the run.

This Rams game is about dealing with 2. Across the line they have a good D-line staring Aaron Donald, who by himself, can wreck the Bills game plan, more so than Josh Allen of the Jaguars did to the Bills last year. If the Bills can somewhat keep him quiet, I would be very confident the Bills walk out Thursday night celebrating win #1.

If you watch the the Patriots/Rams superbowl, Belichick triple teamed on Donald a lot because Brady was a stature back there. The downside is that it limited options to Pats offense and Brady has very few people he can target.

Back in 2020, the Bills took a different approach under Daboll. They used a second layer blocking, leveraging Mitch Morse mobility as the last guy to fend off Donald when he broke through double teams. See the video below when they discussed Morse having an eye on Donald a lot (around 6:19 mark)


One variable I see this game is the running attack from the Bills. They added Safford which is a much better run blocker than a pass pro at this point. And they brought back Kromer which is one of the best known blocking scheming O-Line coaches - you can see in pre-season how many wide gaps the O-Line is creating for the backs. But I still believe the game will be won or lost on Allen's performance, mainly his arm. Rams are a tough team to run on anyway.

[Woodman]

Should be awesome let's start out with the only stat that matters.

Let's go 1-0.

[OpIv37]

Crazy thought: let Donald through. Say Donald lines up against the LT. Allen is in shotgun, gets the snap, fakes right for a second, then goes left. The LT engages Donald for a second, then lets him win inside to Allen’s right as Allen has already started moving to his left. Line up WR/TE trips right, and run three crossing routes left with one WR on the left side of the formation running a rub to the right.


It won’t work every time but they could get a few plays out of that strategy.

[OpIv37]

Should be awesome let's start out with the only stat that matters.

Let's go 1-0.

Be big if it happens. This is the least winnable game on the schedule.

[sukie]

Ramsey is on Giggs… who is gonna stop Davis?

[Woodman]

Substitute Judge Smails with Aaron Donald here's what you do!

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I wouldn't let Donald anywhere near Allen. He had 2 sacks on Allen in 2020 causing 2 fumbles. Look his second sack on Allen in this video. I'd say 99% of the time Allen escapes in a similar situation, not Donald. He threw 240+ln Allen like a rag doll. I think Allen mentioned to Simms in an interview that he was shocked by Donald's strength.

BTW can Bates do a little better than Winters in a one-on-one against Donald?

[OpIv37]

I wouldn't let Donald anywhere near Allen. He had 2 sacks on Allen in 2020 causing 2 fumbles. Look his second sack on Allen in this video. I'd say 99% of the time Allen escapes in a similar situation, not Donald. He threw 240+ln Allen like a rag doll. I think Allen mentioned to Simms in an interview that he was shocked by Donald's strength.

BTW can Bates do a little better than Winters in a one-on-one against Donald?

Just for clarification: I’m not suggesting letting Donald anywhere near Allen. I’m suggesting a misdirection play where Donald thinks he won but Allen and everyone else is going the opposite way.

[Turf]

This is where I think you see Dorsey's genius.

[jamze132]

I’m more concerned what the Rams WRs are going to do to our young CBs than what Donald will do. This has the potential to be bad.

[sukie]

I’m more concerned what the Rams WRs are going to do to our young CBs than what Donald will do. This has the potential to be bad.

I think the pass rush will be improved. The run stop will be improved. Last season the CBS were fine with Wallace. They will be fine now. I am glad the bills are playing vs Stafford. Imagine if Allen was the opposing QB? Bills win in a blowout.

[OpIv37]

I’m more concerned what the Rams WRs are going to do to our young CBs than what Donald will do. This has the potential to be bad.

It's all going to depend on the pass rush.

[Novacane]

Be big if it happens. This is the least winnable game on the schedule.

Rams fans are saying the same thing.

[cookie G]

Crazy thought: let Donald through. Say Donald lines up against the LT. Allen is in shotgun, gets the snap, fakes right for a second, then goes left. The LT engages Donald for a second, then lets him win inside to Allen’s right as Allen has already started moving to his left. Line up WR/TE trips right, and run three crossing routes left with one WR on the left side of the formation running a rub to the right.


It won’t work every time but they could get a few plays out of that strategy.

Or...

[OpIv37]

Rams fans are saying the same thing.

Well, then they aren't very bright. We're the ones that have to travel 3000 miles. We're the ones who have to play on the road, in a dome, against a crowd that will be amped up after they raise the SB banner. We're the ones with the pressure of being SB favorites.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Week 1 is really a trying period. Great teams reverse scouting extensively in the off-season so the assumed weakness may turn out to be just the opposite.

McVey never lost a season opener. Except 2020 season where his Ram beat the Cowboys 20-17, all other openers they won big, scoring over 30 points in all of them. That man is an offensive genius. Give him time and some talent, he'll scheme up something to score points. I have given up the fact that, even White were to play tomorrow, the Bills are going to give up points - I hope not into 30s but definitely into 20s.

The key to me is can our offense match up to them. On paper, they should. But history is not kind for openers. Even in Allen's breakout season 2020 against the lowly Jets at home, they scored 27 points. Maybe Dorsey can change that. I hope what Allen did this off-season, focusing more on the schematics like where his eye need to be instead of improving throwing mechanics will help him adapt to the unknowns - much more in the opener games.

Having a better running game would help big there. Tasker mentioned you see more running plays across the league in opener precisely because every team faces the same unknown issue. What I don't what to see is situation like last year's Steelers opener. You ran it twice then 3rd and long, playing right into Steelers pass rushing teeth.

[Mr. Pink]

Disagree.

Donald can do almost anything he wants other than forcing a couple strip sacks and it won't matter.

We're going to need to score 35+ to win this one in a shoot out.

I don't have confidence in our secondary stopping Cooper Kupp from being open all game long.

[notacon]

Going to be a great game with fascinating match ups.

Stafford tends to make big mistakes. With the improved D-Line, and the Bills still with a stellar secondary (even without Tre’ White) I expect the Bills to slow down the Rams passing game more than the Rams defense can slow down the Bills offense.

Donald is always headache. Going to be a blast to watch how the Bills counter him, and take advantage with a multi-pronged offense juggernaut this is as deadly as in the NFL.

[TigerJ]

It looks to me as if the two areas the Bills tried most to upgrade are the defensive and offensive lines, though some complain Buffalo didn't do enough on the offensive line. Their objective on offense was to strengthen their running game in part, but improvement in pas protection is likely as well, if Safford is as good as they hope, and Brown can improve from his rookie season and is fully recovered from his injured back. Their hope on defense is both to get more pressure on the QB and to shut down the run more consistently. It remains to be seen how successful their efforts will be, but I'm hopeful.

[Ginger Vitis]

Be big if it happens. This is the least winnable game on the schedule.

the bills won the games you thought were "least" winnable in 2020 and 2021