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Thread: 2023 Roster Analysis

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    2023 Roster Analysis

    Under Contract---37---(reserve/future)---13

    QB--Allen (Barkley)
    RB--Cook, Hines
    FB--Gilliam
    WR--Diggs, Davis, McKenzie,Shakir, Coulter (KS.Johnson, D.Patmon)
    TE--Knox, Morris (Z.Davidson)
    C--Morse
    G--Bates,
    OT--Dawkins, Doyle, Brown
    OL--(A.Anderson, G.Mancz, R.Van Demark)


    DT--Oliver, Jones, Settle (E.Ankou, C.Broughton, B.Bryant)
    DE--Miller, Rousseau, Epenesa, Basham, Vickers (K.Jonathon)
    LB--Milano, Bernard, Spector
    CB--White, Elam, TJohnson, Benford, Neal (J.Ingram, K.McMichael)
    S--Hyde, Hamlin, Mayden


    PK--Bass
    P--
    LS--Ferguson


    RFA---3

    LB--Dodsen
    CB--Jackson, Lewis

    UFA---21

    QB--Keenum
    RB--Singletary, TJones
    WR--Crowder, Kumerow
    TE--Sweeney
    G--Saffold, Van Roten, Boettger, Hart
    OT--Quissenbery, Murray

    DT--Phillips
    DE--Lawson
    LB--Edmunds, Matekevitch, Klein
    S--Poyer, Marlowe, Johnson

    P--Martin

    Projected salary cap (over/under)(per Spotrac)

    $226.7 million
    current contracts $247 million (minus $20,500,000...over)

    Draft picks--

    Rd 1 #27
    Rd 2 #59
    Rd 3 #91
    Rd 4 #128
    Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona)
    Rd 5 #160
    Last edited by YardRat; 01-30-2023 at 02:45 PM.
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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    For reference only at the moment

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    Mace (01-25-2023)

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    OK, so away we go...

    Obviously nobody knows real numbers and everybody is just spit-balling the cap adjustments but I'll use figures that have already been speculated, mostly by spotrac.

    Restructure--

    --Josh Allen, salary to bonus, saves $21 million.
    --Naheim Hines, straight restructure or cut-and-re-sign, saves $2.4 million.
    --Mitch Morse, extension, saves $3 million.
    --Taron Johnson, salary to bonus, saves $4.2 million.
    --Micah Hyde, extension, saves $4.5 million.
    (total cap savings from above = $35.1 million, $14.6 under)

    I know Hines and Morse are popular projections for cuts for cap savings, but IMO A) Hines wasn't acquired at mid-season to only stay a half year and then be booted, he's already proven his value as a returner and he should be used more offensively with an off-season learning the playbook under his belt and B) Beane completely fubared the center and interior linebacker situations by not addressing them the last two off-seasons, there just isn't anybody adequate to replace Morse next year. If Mitch decides to retire due to health concerns I certainly wouldn't blame him but the o-line situation would become completely screwed instead of just mostly. He's a team leader, probably the only one in the oline room capable of being one, and just too valuable to cut loose.

    Trade--

    --Isaiah McKenzie for a 7th, saves $2.2 million.
    --AJ Epenesa for a 5th, saves $1.4 million.
    --Ed Oliver for a 3rd, saves $10.75 million.
    (total cap savings from above = $14.35 million, $28.95 million under)

    McKenzie and Epenesa are too easily replaceable and too underwhelming in production. Unfortunately we won't get much in return for either and quite honestly I'm betting a longshot that Daboll might be willing to give up a pick to add Isaiah to his WR room for a season. Really don't like the possibility of unloading Oliver, but objectively speaking he isn't that much higher on the disappointment scale than Edmunds and he probably has the best combination of return value and cap savings on the roster.

    Cut--

    --Tim Settle, saves $2.2 million
    (total cap savings = $2.2 million, $31.15 million under)

    His spot in the rotation can be easily replaced, for cheaper, with a rookie draft pick, UDFA, and give Bryant a legitimate shot at making the final 53 on the interior.

    Also, I've still got restructure flexibility with Dawkins ($6.15 million savings), Tre' White ($5.9 million), Milano ($6.6 million), Diggs( $5.6 million), and Von ($10.9 million) in my back pocket if I absolutely need it. Certainly some doable options, but in their cases it means kicking a lot of money into future years which just pushes the cap dilemma down the road.

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    I had higher hopes for McKenzie, Epenesa, Settle and Oliver, but have to agree.

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    Lone Stranger (02-05-2023),Mad Bomber (02-13-2023),TacklingDummy (02-10-2023),YardRat (02-05-2023)

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    The rookie pool is expected to be ~ $7.3 million with a cap effect of ~ $2.8 million, if the team remains at the 6 picks they have currently.

    https://overthecap.com/draft

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    Rd 1 #27 Top WR or OL on board
    Rd 2 #59 Whichever 1 you didn’t pick in R1
    Rd 3 #91 DT or S
    Rd 4 #128 Whichever 1 you didn’t pick in R3
    Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona) LB
    Rd 5 #160 highest player left on board that plays either Secondary, Oline, or DT.

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Mace View Post
    I had higher hopes for McKenzie, Epenesa, Settle and Oliver, but have to agree.
    Agree with this and I'd add Davis.


    28 **60 **128 **133 **144 **160
    163 **189 **200 **204 **248

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by TacklingDummy View Post
    Rd 1 #27 Top WR or OL on board
    Rd 2 #59 Whichever 1 you didn’t pick in R1
    Rd 3 #91 DT or S
    Rd 4 #128 Whichever 1 you didn’t pick in R3
    Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona) LB
    Rd 5 #160 highest player left on board that plays either Secondary, Oline, or DT.
    Like it ..... would love to add a RB bull as well.

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Woodman View Post
    Like it ..... would love to add a RB bull as well.
    They can roll with Cook, Hines, FA, undrafted rookie.

    They need someone to open up holes for the running back.

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by TacklingDummy View Post
    They can roll with Cook, Hines, FA, undrafted rookie.

    They need someone to open up holes for the running back.
    My 1st priority is the trenches.

    My 2nd priority is the trenches.

    Build a great line and any RB could operate behind it.

    Protect the franchise and add a REAL WEAPON!

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    So I'm going to move forward under the premise Oliver, McKenzie and Epenesa are traded, and Settle is cut.
    Also assuming the following will end up being cuts...WR Coulter, DE Vickers, S Mayden...and Hamlin starts the season on PUP.


    Position-Players (current # on roster)--players needed

    QB--Allen (1)--1
    RB--Cook, Hines (2)--1
    FB--Gilliam (1)--0
    WR--Diggs, Davis, Shakir, (3)--4
    TE--Knox, Morris (2)--1
    C--Morse (1)--1
    G--Bates (1)--2
    OT--Dawkins, Doyle, Brown (3)--1


    DT--Jones, Settle (2)--2
    DE--Miller, Rousseau, Basham,(3)--2
    LB--Milano, Bernard, Spector, (3)--2
    CB--White, Elam, TJohnson, Benford, Neal (5)--1
    S--Hyde (1)--3


    PK--Bass (1)--0
    P--(0)--1
    LS--Ferguson (1)--0

    30 roster spots filled, 22 specific needed plus 1 flexible for 53 total (not including practice squad)


    Edit---the additional three cuts and Hamlin add ~$3.793mil to the cap, current status = ~$34,943,500 under.


    Projected draft picks after trades...


    Rd 1 #27
    Rd 2 #59
    Rd 3 #91
    Rd 3 ??
    Rd 4 #128
    Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona)
    Rd 6 #205
    Rd 5 ??
    Rd 7 ??
    Last edited by YardRat; 02-19-2023 at 08:12 AM.

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by YardRat View Post
    For reference only at the moment
    It still is.

    Off-season hasn't started yet.
    Anonymity is an abused privilege, abused most by people who mistake vitriol for wisdom and cynicism for wit

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    Priority #1---Safety. It's going to hurt but IMO they bring back Poyer on a three year deal, hoping to get two out of him, and his cap hit in '23 will be similar to Hydes ($10.5mil)

    Priority #2---Linebacker. I would try and correct last season's mistake and dangle a couple of picks to Jacksonville in exchange for Chad Muma ($951k cap hit) or Dallas for Damone Clark ($870k cap hit). Muma is probably more realistic because A) Jax already has fellow rookie Lloyd starting and playing very well, and B) Clark is probably taking VanderEsch's starting spot in '23.
    Last edited by YardRat; 02-12-2023 at 01:54 PM.

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    I’d be interested in…

    WR: OBJ, Beasley, Jacobi Meyers, JuJu
    RB: Undrafted rookie
    LT: Orlando Brown moving Dawkins to guard
    DT: Da’Ron Payne, Shy Tuttle
    DE: DeMarcus Walker

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by YardRat View Post
    So I'm going to move forward under the premise Oliver, McKenzie and Epenesa are traded, and Settle is cut.
    Also assuming the following will end up being cuts...WR Coulter, DE Vickers, S Mayden...and Hamlin starts the season on PUP.


    Position-Players (current # on roster)--players needed

    QB--Allen (1)--1
    RB--Cook, Hines (2)--1
    FB--Gilliam (1)--0
    WR--Diggs, Davis, Shakir, (3)--4
    TE--Knox, Morris (2)--1
    C--Morse (1)--1
    G--Bates (1)--2
    OT--Dawkins, Doyle, Brown (3)--1


    DT--Jones, Settle (2)--2
    DE--Miller, Rousseau, Basham,(3)--2
    LB--Milano, Bernard, Spector, (3)--2
    CB--White, Elam, TJohnson, Benford, Neal (5)--1
    S--Hyde (1)--3


    PK--Bass (1)--0
    P--(0)--1
    LS--Ferguson (1)--0

    30 roster spots filled, 22 specific needed plus 1 flexible for 53 total (not including practice squad)


    Edit---the additional three cuts and Hamlin add ~$3.793mil to the cap, current status = ~$34,943,500 under.


    Projected draft picks after trades...


    Rd 1 #27
    Rd 2 #59
    Rd 3 #91
    Rd 3 ??
    Rd 4 #128
    Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona)
    Rd 5 #160
    Rd 5 ??
    Rd 7 ??
    Lot of work to be done this off-season.

    To me, since Allen is the franchise and the depth chart is non-existent, the team is going to have to invest big on the oline this offseason - most importantly a free agent starting tackle and one free agent guard who can at least compete to start (plus a relatively early draft pick on an interior lineman who also can compete to start).

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    WR - I'd take a hard look at DJ Chark and see what kind of contract he's looking for. It's a thin WR market so he might be too expensive but if he's not looking for a huge deal he'd be an asset. He's a guy who can stretch the field something we sorely lack.

    S - Vonn Bell. Again, depends on what kind of contract he's looking for. But in order for us to get to the Super Bowl we need someone who can pretend to cover Travis Kelce, I say pretend because no one really can. Bell is great in coverage when in comes to TEs.

    LB - Drue Tranquill. Good in coverage, which are system predicates and let's be honest Edmunds was never good at coverage and Milano ain't much better. Tranquill would fill a need.

    All three of those are based on what kind of money they'd be looking for as we'll be very thin on cap space but if we could snag one or two of them I think we'd be in a much better place next season.

    Some cheaper FAs that warrant a look..

    D'ernest Johnson RB, Julio Jones/Sterling Sheppard WR, Larry Ogunjobi DT, Jabrill Peppers S

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    So they sign S Zayne Anderson for 2 years and the terms aren't public yet. Beane is going to have to sign some his own back to the team so the depth isn't as bare going into free agency and the draft.

    FA's----S Anderson $ ?

    UFA's---WR Beasley (or Crowder) $2 million...WR Kumerow (for teams) $1.2 million ...G Boettger $3.5 million (similar to Bates)...DT Phillips $3 million...DE Lawson $3 million...LB Matekevitch $2 million...P Martin $1.3 million

    RFA's---I think they let LB Dodson and CB Jackson test the market because neither is worth the $2.6 million tender but both come back for about $1.75 each.
    Last edited by YardRat; 03-03-2023 at 04:44 PM.

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by YardRat View Post
    RFA's---I think they let LB Dodson and CB Jackson test the market because neither is worth the $2.6 million tender but both come back for about $1.75 each.
    Probably the case ..... nice job!

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    So in my pretend GM dream world we sign S Poyer, ship our extra third and fifth to Jax for ILB Muma, and sign the list of returning vets from post #17...

    Position-Players (current # on roster)--players needed

    QB--Allen (1)--1
    RB--Cook, Hines (2)--1
    FB--Gilliam (1)--0
    WR--Diggs, Davis, Shakir, BEASLEY, KUMEROW (5)--2
    TE--Knox, Morris (2)--1
    C--Morse (1)--1
    G--Bates, BOETTGER (2)--1
    OT--Dawkins, Doyle, Brown (3)--1


    DT--Jones, PHILLIPS (2)--2
    DE--Miller, Rousseau, Basham, LAWSON (4)--1
    LB--Milano, Bernard, Spector, MUMA , MATEKEVITCH , DODSEN (6)--0
    CB--White, Elam, TJohnson, Benford, Neal, JACKSON (6)--0
    S--Hyde, Anderson, (3)--2 or 3 (with Poyer leaving)


    PK--Bass (1)--0
    P-- MARTIN (0)--0
    LS--Ferguson (1)--0

    41 roster spots filled, 11 specific needed plus 1 flexible for 53 total (not including practice squad or Hamlin on PUP)
    Edit--40 with Poyer walking





    Projected draft picks after trades...


    Rd 1 #27
    Rd 2 #59
    Rd 3 #91
    Rd 3 ??---traded for Muma
    Rd 4 #128

    Rd 5 #135 (from Arizona)
    Rd 6 #205
    Rd 5 ??---traded for Muma
    Rd 7 ??


    $34,943,500 under less new contracts leaves us only $3,993,000 under the cap before free agency and the draft. Which means either more re-structuring needs to be done or some of the returning vets I targeted can't be brought back.
    Last edited by YardRat; 03-03-2023 at 05:25 PM.

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    Re: 2023 Roster Analysis

    I think I have to back off the re-signing Poyer train, he sounds as good as gone as gone can be..put his $10.5 back in the bank and the team is theoretically at $14.493 million under.

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