Where do we go FA or Draft

[notacon]

A simple restructure of Allen's base salary will get them under the cap, and then there are multiple other moves that will create some spending room. I don't expect any big moves, but they'll get some re-signings done and bring in a few mid-tier guys.

I expect Edmunds to be the priority re-signing and based on how Beane and McD talk about him I think it will get done. Keep in mind that Von Miller's 6 year $120 mil deal last year only had a $5 mil cap hit in year 1. Even if Edmunds gets a high APY contract they can structure it to work for 2023.

Exactly!!!

[justasportsfan]

I was referring to your comment on our DRAFT picks don’t make a significant impact. That’s why I said this: “ Maybe we’re due to hit on immediate impact player.”

[justasportsfan]

Well the good news is, it shouldn’t cost $15m per season to match Edmunds stats. A
The occasional pick or sack to go along with a hundred or so tackles is not $15m. Hell, he should lose money every time he plugs the wrong hole.

the thing about Edmunds is that he affects a qb's decision to throw his way because of his size and athleticism. His problem is , the lack of big plays when it comes his way. For 15 million per year, he should be a player OCs pan for. He isnt.

[sukie]

the thing about Edmunds is that he affects a qb's decision to throw his way because of his size and athleticism. His problem is , the lack of big plays when it comes his way. For 15 million per year, he should be a player OCs pan for. He isnt.

He’s an expensive scarecrow.

[Bill Cody]

He’s an expensive scarecrow.

download.jpeg

That's harsh

[ParanoidAndroid]

We need a scheme shift to a 4-3-4 base.

Can Taron Johnson play safety? He's one of our best defenders and has great range. Ditching the nickel base would leave him off the field.

Put Milano in the middle, Bernard weakside and let Klein play Strong side. We would need depth to back that up, especially the outside spots. Spector could possibly back up the middle.

It's asking a lot but wouldn't that better fit the strengths of the people we have? All the while freeing up Edmunds cap hit to upgrade elsewhere?

Throwing stuff at the wall....

[notacon]

the thing about Edmunds is that he affects a qb's decision to throw his way because of his size and athleticism. His problem is , the lack of big plays when it comes his way. For 15 million per year, he should be a player OCs pan for. He isnt.

Except he IS a player “OC’s plan for”. And QB’s are affected by his presence.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Except he IS a player “OC’s plan for”. And QB’s are affected by his presence.

If they do, it seems to be working much of the time.

[notacon]

We need a scheme shift to a 4-3-4 base.

Can Taron Johnson play safety? He's one of our best defenders and has great range. Ditching the nickel base would leave him off the field.

Put Milano in the middle, Bernard weakside and let Klein play Strong side. We would need depth to back that up, especially the outside spots. Spector could possibly back up the middle.

It's asking a lot but wouldn't that better fit the strengths of the people we have? All the while freeing up Edmunds cap hit to upgrade elsewhere?

Throwing stuff at the wall....

Yeah....throwing stuff at the wall is right.

"Milano in the middle, Bernard weakside and let Klein play Strong side” would be a disaster.


Putting two players on the field that are sub-average (and Bernard is worse than sub-average....he got buried in the depth chart because he is just not nearly good enough to be on the filed for defense...at least so far)....to replace an extremely effective player that has gotten better every year and it a integral part of the defense?!?!?


We have already seen, when Milano is on the filed, but Edmonds isn’t, the defense is noticeably weaker and performs worse. When the opposite is seen, Edmunds on the field and Milano is not, the defense does not perform as well as with him (of course) but not as much of the fall off as when Edmunds is not with him.


There was a noticeable falloff in the second half of the Minny game when Edmunds got injured.....

The Edmunds departure was even more notable on film

One of the primary observations we had after the game was how much the Bills missed starting middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds in run defending. It was especially apparent in real time after Dalvin Cook’s 81-yard touchdown run. But the degree in which they missed him both as a run defender and in pass coverage stood out a great deal after watching the All-22. The drop-off from Edmunds to his backup Tyrel Dodson in pass coverage was an extreme one. In the first half, Edmunds was routinely reading the keys of Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins, which sometimes triggered him to turn his back and go find the defender to break up an oncoming pass. His reaction time, speed, and length were all plus attributes of that first half and a big part of how the Bills bottled up the Vikings so successfully through 30 minutes. With Dodson, his reactions just seemed a quarter of a second later than Edmunds, leading to multiple opportunities in the middle of the field on some clutch third-down chances. He also lost his assignment on a man-to-man coverage rep that led to another easy Vikings first down.


Edmunds’ overall importance to the defense has proved more significant than ever this year, and much has to do without the Bills’ usual safety duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer being in the lineup. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier called Edmunds one of the team’s “best players,” underscoring how important they view him within their scheme. Edmunds is of course, a free agent at the end of the season, and opinions outside the building on him are split. But especially if the Bills are planning for life without Hyde or Poyer, or both, in the next two seasons, they might not want to start over at the middle linebacker position as well. Edmunds’ strong play this season and how he’s impacted the opponent’s passing attack adds another layer to an already complicated offseason question.

And “ditching the nickel base” that facilitates taking the very effective Taron Johnson off the field????


The 4-2-5 scheme has worked extremely well for the Bills, despite the chatter from some here.

I’m going to make a "bold prediction" (that is really not that bold)....the Bills WILL continue to use the 4-2-5 scheme. There is little doubt that they WILL retain Edmunds....although it is not 100%....I suspect that Beane, McDermott and Frazier want him back BADLY and will do everything within their power to do so.


If Edmunds goes, the defense will take a HUGE step backwards.






- - - Updated - - -

If they do, it seems to be working much of the time.

Not true.

[notacon]

BTW....the two games the past two seasons that saw the Bills allowing the most points were both missing Edmunds.

As I posted about above, Edmunds missing the second half of the Minnesota loss was HUGE. More facts about that.....

The 33 points allowed was the most for any game in 2022. And almost all of that was AFTER Edmunds left the game.

1st half that he is playing, the Bills lead 24-10. Minny only scored 10 points. 2nd half, after Edmunds is not on the filed, they score TWENTY THREEE (vs the dismal Bills six). The MOST points allowed by the Bills in the a half of a game all year.

Yes, the offense failed miserly in that game, and had the win in their pocket until Allen fumbles the snap.

BUT, it is obvious that it probably would not have depended on that kneel down snap IF Edmunds was on the field.

That’s not the worst of it. Add to that (most points allowed in a 2022 game)....look at 2021. THE worst defensive performance of the season, allowing the MOST points in THAT season, FORTY ONE vs Indy in week #11....Edmunds was NOT on the field. Here is the All-22 analysis for THAT debacle...

Bills desperately missing Tremaine Edmunds

Bills defensive tackles deserve a lot of blame for not holding up in the middle of the defense, but linebacker A.J. Klein was simply dreadful all game. The Colts routinely forced Klein a step too far to the wrong side, and when he tried to battle back against the oncoming offensive lineman to help make a stop, Klein rarely was able to get off the block before it was too late. He was invisible on far too many rushing attempts, and then when he had some tackle attempts, he failed to get a definitive stop. On some plays, he missed the tackle altogether. Klein was the worst-graded player on the field Sunday, and that’s saying something because of how much the Bills struggled. It also showed how important starter Tremaine Edmunds has become for the Bills.

The Bills were able to get by without Edmunds against the Jaguars and Jets because those running games aren’t nearly as prolific as that of the Colts. Edmunds has greatly improved his ability to deal with physicality this year and in how he has worked off blocks. He has also fired to the rushing lanes with confidence much more often than previously in his career. On top of those improvements, Edmunds is a far superior athlete to Klein and can challenge oncoming offensive linemen and running backs in a way that Klein simply cannot. Against a high-powered rushing attack, the Bills desperately need Edmunds in the lineup for how he confronts the opposing blocking schemes. While it wasn’t the case earlier in Edmunds’ career, it is now.

That’s two seasons in a row, THE games, each season, allowing the most defense points BOTH did not have Edmunds playing the whole game.

That is NOT a coincidence. The reality is crystal clear....the Bills defense is better when Edmunds plays and worse when he does not.

To those that are hoping that he walks next year, you are inviting a significant drop-off in the team defense.

[YardRat]

the thing about Edmunds is that he affects a qb's decision to throw his way because of his size and athleticism. His problem is , the lack of big plays when it comes his way. For 15 million per year, he should be a player OCs pan for. He isnt.

It really doesn't. Three of the biggest plays in Cinci's first two drives were passes into the intermediate center zone that Edmunds vacated because he got suckered into biting on a shorter crossing route. The Bengals have the book on Edmunds penchant for making a bad read and they exploited it.

[YardRat]

We need a scheme shift to a 4-3-4 base.

Can Taron Johnson play safety? He's one of our best defenders and has great range. Ditching the nickel base would leave him off the field.

Put Milano in the middle, Bernard weakside and let Klein play Strong side. We would need depth to back that up, especially the outside spots. Spector could possibly back up the middle.

It's asking a lot but wouldn't that better fit the strengths of the people we have? All the while freeing up Edmunds cap hit to upgrade elsewhere?

Throwing stuff at the wall....

Not disagreeing with the premise, but Milano is just as bad at taking on and shedding blocks as Edmunds, we certainly wouldn't be improving the run defense by putting Milano in the middle.

[Mace]

It really doesn't. Three of the biggest plays in Cinci's first two drives were passes into the intermediate center zone that Edmunds vacated because he got suckered into biting on a shorter crossing route. The Bengals have the book on Edmunds penchant for making a bad read and they exploited it.

Bunch of stuff in here, including some prime Edmunds.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/202...r-jamarr-chase

[Woodman]

FA or Draft?

Or coaching?

[Bill Cody]

We only have 6 picks in this draft.

To me it should look something like:

1) OT
2) LB
3) S
4) RB
5) DT
5) OG

[notacon]

Bunch of stuff in here, including some prime Edmunds.

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/202...r-jamarr-chase

Both Poyer and Edmunds (and almost every Bills player) had bad games vs Cincy. That does not mean the much in the big picture. Here is Joe B.’s All-22 Film analysis of these two players....

3. S Jordan Poyer

One of the more disappointing performances in the playoff game and against the Dolphins came from starting safety Jordan Poyer. Usually a source of strength at the backend of the defense, Poyer was hesitant to drive toward ball carriers, missed several open-field tackles and was a step slow in getting to throws over the top as the center-field safety. It contributed to several drives extending over the two weeks. There was likely a cumulative impact of Poyer’s injuries throughout the season, as he had five since training camp before adding a sixth — a concussion — that knocked him out of the Bengals game.

Injuries can be a focal point to Poyer’s playoff performance, but it’s also worth wondering whether all the injuries aren’t just a fluke. The Bills must consider whether the injuries are a warning sign of a player entering his age-32 season in 2023. Poyer is an unrestricted free agent in March, and the Bills didn’t provide him with an offer to his liking to avoid going to free agency. The Bills are probably playing this situation correctly and not being a prisoner to an emotional decision with how much Poyer has meant to the franchise since 2017. They’ve also kept the door open if Poyer’s market falls flatter than he expects. Either way, the playoff performances and the injuries should embolden the Bills to follow their path of playing the wait-and-see game until March and hoping Poyer will return on a team-friendly deal.

4. LB Tremaine Edmunds

Bucking the trend of his season, Edmunds had a below-average performance and was a big reason the Bengals’ running game was so successful. The Bengals specialized in spreading out the Bills with their shotgun-based attack and successfully ran out of it, which shouldn’t have been news to Buffalo. It’s how they found most of their rushing success throughout the regular season, but it’s difficult to stop with the Bengals’ receiving options on the boundary. And Edmunds struggled to maneuver past blockers in the open field to bring down the ball carrier before they made a sizable gain.

Despite those one-game issues, Edmunds’ day was also a byproduct of the defensive line having one of its worst showings of the season. It was routinely pushed around and shifted to where the Bengals blockers wanted to go, and it fell on Edmunds, Matt Milano and Taron Johnson to get through bigger blockers and secure the tackle in one fell swoop. Edmunds deserves criticism for a handful of plays, but he likely wasn’t reverting to some of his early-career struggles. It also shouldn’t impact how the Bills approach Edmunds’ impending free agency. If Buffalo wanted to find a way to keep Edmunds for the long term as he enters his age-25 season, his play Sunday wasn’t so egregious to ignore the arrow pointing up on his career overall.

Very accurate and astute observations.

[Woodman]

We only have 6 picks in this draft.

To me it should look something like:

1) OT
2) LB
3) S
4) RB
5) DT
5) OG

I believe one of those will be filled through free agency freeing up a spot for a WR!

[notacon]

We only have 6 picks in this draft.

To me it should look something like:

1) OT
2) LB
3) S
4) RB
5) DT
5) OG

My potential list....

1. IOL (top two are interchangeable depending on BPA)
2. WR
3. S
4. RB
5. LB
5. DT

FA will probably change the priorities of the draft (duh!). Seeing talk of the Bills going after JuJu Smith-Schuster for slot WR. If the right WR is available to push (and eventually replace) Gabe Davis as boundary receiver, it could be a very astute 1st round pick, even if JuJu was signed.

Potential 1st round WR's fifth year option would be the 2027 season, the same year as Diggs’ final contract year.

IOL O’Cyrus Torrence’s name is cropping up on a a lot of mock drafts. But, there are probably some day 2 prospects that could be valuable additions as well.

Beane and his scouting organization has got their work cut out for them.

[Mace]

Both Poyer and Edmunds (and almost every Bills player) had bad games vs Cincy. That does not mean the much in the big picture. Here is Joe B.’s All-22 Film analysis of these two players....







Very accurate and astute observations.

Actually it did mean a lot to the big picture, because it was a PLAYOFF game and ended another season in the divisional round.

I disagree with Buscaglia. To me it was all of the same problems he always has. Struggles when blocked, hesitates, makes the wrong read, gets suckered. Pass coverage was supposed to be his strong suit. The Bengals were unimpressed.

[sukie]

“Stats” don’t win games or form a good defense. Extremely good players like Tremaine Edmunds DO. They do not grow on trees and are not cheap.

The “tackles” stat (the way some confused “fans” try to use it, as compared to other teams) is the most useless and irrelevant stat for defensive players. It is totally irrelvent how many tackles any Bills players have as compared to other teams’s players.

ALL that matters is how many tackles a Bills player has compared to other Bills players.

And Edmunds has led the team in tackles (avg per game....he had less tackles one season (2020, Poyer 124 for 16 games, Edmunds 119 in 15 games, because he played one less games) every single year in his career.

In 2022, he led the team in tackles over the #2 (Milano) despite playing two fewer games.

THAT is what matters. An no amount of cherry picking irrelevant stats will change that fact....the stat that really matters.

TFL matters. Passes defended matters (for an off the ball LB supposedly good in pass coverage) Sacks and forced fumbles also matter. Tackles stats don’t tell you what direction facing when tackling and or how far past the line of scrimmage the tackle took place.

game changing plays… that is what Edmunds lack. 18 million per year for a non game changer is a financial risk